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Good Tuesday morning!

We that we kind of a let down. Did anyone see any hail? I heard reports of hail in Cobb and quarter size hail in Chatsworth, but that's about it. 

So... for today...

Quote

The models are similar with forecasting the approach and passage of an
upper level low/trough today and tonight. Mainly light showers are
expected in the vicinity of the low/trough, favoring the west side of
central GA and up toward the NE mountains this afternoon into tonight.
Instability is very limited or nil and while you can not completely rule
out a thunderstorm, the probability is too low to include at this time.

With the passage of the upper system tonight, an upper ridge builds
for Wednesday with a much drier airmass.

Forecast high temperatures are running about 3-9 degrees below normal
across the area today and near to as much as 10 degrees below normal
on Wednesday. Forecast low temperatures are running within around 5
degrees of normal for tonight.

ndfd_t2max_atl_1-26.thumb.png.94a30780d13d3cc9b85cf7ffd7d65898.png

In other words... partly sunny and cool with a very slight chance of a shower. 

But wait...! Let's look ahead a little further!

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To begin the extended period, upper-level ridging and NW flow aloft
will be solidly in place over the southeastern CONUS. High pressure
will progressively build southward into the forecast area from a
surface high positioned just east of the Atlantic Coast. Dry
conditions and clear skies can be expected due to the influence of
this high pressure. Cold morning temperatures are furthermore
anticipated to start the period, with lows approaching freezing in
locations across the far northeastern mountains Thursday morning.
The flow aloft then shifts to WSW by Friday, which will lead to
increasing humidity and cloud cover going into the weekend.
Gradual warming is expected to be ongoing each day through the end
of the week, with high temperatures near climatological normals
on Thursday increasing to 5-8 degrees above climatological normals
by Saturday.

 

But that's not all!!!! 😛

Quote

The next system approaches the area this weekend as an upper level
longwave trough drops from the Great Lakes region down to the
Tennessee Valley. At the surface, a low pressure system out ahead of
the trough will drop a cold front into the the Mississippi Valley by
late Saturday night, which will push eastward towards Georgia on
Sunday. Model guidance is continuing to trend towards agreement that
precipitation ahead of the front will enter northwest Georgia
overnight Saturday into Sunday morning, and move slowly through the
area throughout the day Sunday.

Latest ECMWF presents a wetter solution with a better-defined front,
while the GFS elongates and weakens the front as it moves into the
area, ultimately moving it out more slowly. GFS meanwhile develops
an intense shortwave just behind the front, which would indicate a
quick return of PoPs by Monday night. Model guidance is divergent at
this point, as ECMWF keeps this shortwave considerably weaker and
dry. Due to this discrepancy, have included rain chances on
Monday/Tuesday but have capped them at low-end chance PoPs. As the
cold front moves through, sufficient instability is possible across
the forecast area to support thunderstorm development, so maintained
a slight chance of thunder on Sunday and Monday morning. The exact
nature and impacts of the convection is still uncertain given
remaining model inconsistencies. Will continue to monitor severe
weather potential in ensuing forecasts as model guidance continues
to come into better agreement.

 

Starting Saturday, I'll be down in Florida for a week, but I'll still be checking on the weather for you. 🙂 You enjoy the pollen, I'll enjoy the warm sunshine. 🙂

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Oh yea! We got hail in Trenton. In fact, my first thoughts were ... "how in the world did he know it was gonna hail like that" lol, hit the nail on the head again!

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13 minutes ago, Jlynn said:

Oh yea! We got hail in Trenton. In fact, my first thoughts were ... "how in the world did he know it was gonna hail like that" lol, hit the nail on the head again!

LOL! I guess I should say that I'm glad that worked out... but who really wants hail? :classic_laugh:

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Hail here too.  We were grateful it was only big pea and marble size.  It came down like crazy!  If it had been larger, cars would have a few little dents!  Afterwards, there was a really great rainbow!

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The Euro is bringing much cooler temperatures for Monday through Thursday next week, on the order of 10-15 degrees below normal. Glad I'll be where it's warm! 😜 Yea... I'm gonna rub it in! 😎

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2 minutes ago, Bagsmom said:

Hail here too.  We were grateful it was only big pea and marble size.  It came down like crazy!  If it had been larger, cars would have a few little dents!  Afterwards, there was a really great rainbow!

Glad there was no damage but glad the forecast verified. 🙂 

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Something awesome happened last night, it seemed like all the lightning went AROUND Dawson County 

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4 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

Something awesome happened last night, it seemed like all the lightning went AROUND Dawson County 

Yes it did. 🙂 May the force be with you. 🙂

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WxSouth posted on FB yesterday and mentioned the potential for a significant weather event for the southeast (somewhere in the 7 to 10 day range, I think.  I read that when I was half asleep.)  Any idea what he is referring to?  The southeast is a big place and there are so many kinds of weather that could be "significant."  Just hoping no severe stuff.

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Heck I just wanted a good rain yesterday! 1/10 of an inch isn’t going to cut it! I tried to plow my garden yesterday and in most of the garden area the top 6-8 inches is so dry my plow wouldn’t even penetrate more than 2-3 inches so I am going to have to run sprinklers before I can properly plow ground! I have a 4 ft. Commercial rotovator/tiller! I hope I am very wrong but got a strange feeling we are going to have a hot dry late spring and summer season with the big Bermuda high parked over Southeast !

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54 minutes ago, Bagsmom said:

WxSouth posted on FB yesterday and mentioned the potential for a significant weather event for the southeast (somewhere in the 7 to 10 day range, I think.  I read that when I was half asleep.)  Any idea what he is referring to?  The southeast is a big place and there are so many kinds of weather that could be "significant."  Just hoping no severe stuff.

It is probably the major cool down he's talking about, I'll go take a look.  This are the GFS temp anomalies starting 8 pm Saturday night through next Thursday at 11 am.
983035634_GFS50-STATESUSASoutheastUS2-mTemperatureAnom-26-2.gif.faafb1221cb6d97457d54d0cae9e48f0.gif

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2 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

The Euro is bringing much cooler temperatures for Monday through Thursday next week, on the order of 10-15 degrees below normal. Glad I'll be where it's warm! 😜 Yea... I'm gonna rub it in! 😎

Be there with ya!

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We had hail here at Calhoun. Storm built up rapidly right over us and moved southeast.  Some places in Calhoun received enough it covered the ground.   Here at the house it just hailed briefly.

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6 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

The Euro is bringing much cooler temperatures for Monday through Thursday next week, on the order of 10-15 degrees below normal. Glad I'll be where it's warm! 😜 Yea... I'm gonna rub it in! 😎

Haha! Well I'll be spending next week at a resort in the smokies and needless to say I'm a little less thrilled with the early April cold plunge lol. But then again on that side of the mountains there's always a chance for token flakes so I guess I can't complain too much. Just hard to feel like "spring break" in those conditions 🥶

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1 hour ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Haha! Well I'll be spending next week at a resort in the smokies and needless to say I'm a little less thrilled with the early April cold plunge lol. But then again on that side of the mountains there's always a chance for token flakes so I guess I can't complain too much. Just hard to feel like "spring break" in those conditions 🥶

Would not be surprised at all. We always rent the same cabin just outside Gatlinburg near a little place called Cobbly Nob. https://cobbly.com/ This is our view from the deck looking at Greenbrier Pinnacle in the Smokies20180704_070258.thumb.jpg.29e58222f159ced5e3ce340fb8cc4540.jpg

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