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NorthGeorgiaWX

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Anything weather... so no need for a monthly outlook topic.

Whatever you want to talk about concerning weather, feel free to do it here.

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Thank you, as always, for the excellent forum!

A few months ago, WXSouth mentioned a "mega-drought" on the long term horizon.  Do you (or does anyone) know what he was looking at, what are comparable periods, etc?  

Lest we forget:

Georgia Tennessee border

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3 hours ago, Mudrun said:

Thank you, as always, for the excellent forum!

A few months ago, WXSouth mentioned a "mega-drought" on the long term horizon.  Do you (or does anyone) know what he was looking at, what are comparable periods, etc?  

Lest we forget:

Georgia Tennessee border

Thanks!
Right now, the long term forecast doesn't look all that bad. Scroll through the images on this page and find the "Outlook and Forecast" section.

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_soil_moisture_us.php

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Thank you - those are fascinating!  I assume all of these are inputs into the drought monitor. 

I think wxsouth was talking years in advance - I do a lot of backyard vegetable gardening and am trying to figure out if I should prioritize water capture this year or if I have some time.  Still trying to get it right in my yard now...
 

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Nothing years in advance though. They are lucky to get 6 months right. 😉 Changes in the ENSO forecast have as much impact as anything over the 12 month period. Go to my ENSO page and scroll down toward the bottom. You'll find images that show the temp/precip correlation to various strengths of the Nino/Nina state. 

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_nino_graphs.php

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Quote

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...
Main concern in the long term period is timing and intensity of
convection on Thursday/Friday. After extended period of dry/very
warm weather dominated by upper ridging, high amplitude trough
expected to progress eastward into the eastern CONUS by early
Thursday. MLCAPE and deep shear should be sufficient for
strong/svr convection however with near south to north flow aloft,
storm mode will most certainly be QLCS with damaging wind main

threat. Heavy rain may also be expected but duration of rainfall
not expected to be too long, less than 12 hours.

00Z and prev cycle deterministic and ensemble model agreement on
timing and amplitude of upper wave quite high, so 12hr PoPs near
categorical seem appropriate for Thurs night and Fri. Hopefully
storms will not be too intense. We could use a break in this
active pattern we have transitioned into.


SNELSON

 

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Even with the rain we've had here and over south Georgia, much of Georgia is abnormally dry. Keep in mind, the yellow is not a drought condition, you have to get to D1 levels to be considered a drought, and right now about 14.5% of Georgia is looking that way. The Drought Monitor from last Thursday shows thew area of dry conditions that cover about 80% of Georgia.
Drought Monitor Page - http://www.daculaweather.com/4_drought_state.php

current_ga_trd-16.thumb.jpg.f086f8154f7e593a27c1a2bc08bbb0fe.jpg

 

Fortunately, it did not intensify from the previous week.

current_GA_chng_PW-16.thumb.jpg.8d13f37c67832bac48a0877ab96b0822.jpg

Looking ahead at the May/June/July forecast, it looks like they are forecasting above normal precipitation and normal temperatures. I'm guessing the precip is helping to keep that temperature down somewhat..
 

Temp and Moisture Forecast - http://www.daculaweather.com/4_soil_moisture_us.php

cas_pt_sea.lead1-16.thumb.gif.12bc51e1888518acedf741a9df2aef4c.gif 

 

Looking at the last 30 days of rainfall, it would appear that we've had a decent amount.
nws_precip_georgia_30-16.thumb.png.4a394bab0834d95dcbb78a62b577a492.png

 

But if you look at it from the "percent of normal" point of view, you will see that's not the case.

nws_precip_georgia_p30-16.thumb.png.b9ce1981cfa7dd5349f110569f870bbc.png

 

Here's a look at the rain from the day before.

nws_precip_georgia_1-16.thumb.png.2dbe187447a31b89c97ae5bfbca493ab.png

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11 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Even with the rain we've had here and over south Georgia, much of Georgia is abnormally dry. Keep in mind, the yellow is not a drought condition, you have to get to D1 levels to be considered a drought, and right now about 14.5% of Georgia is looking that way. The Drought Monitor from last Thursday shows thew area of dry conditions that cover about 80% of Georgia.
Drought Monitor Page - http://www.daculaweather.com/4_drought_state.php

current_ga_trd-16.thumb.jpg.f086f8154f7e593a27c1a2bc08bbb0fe.jpg

 

Fortunately, it did not intensify from the previous week.

current_GA_chng_PW-16.thumb.jpg.8d13f37c67832bac48a0877ab96b0822.jpg

Looking ahead at the May/June/July forecast, it looks like they are forecasting above normal precipitation and normal temperatures. I'm guessing the precip is helping to keep that temperature down somewhat..
 

Temp and Moisture Forecast - http://www.daculaweather.com/4_soil_moisture_us.php

cas_pt_sea.lead1-16.thumb.gif.12bc51e1888518acedf741a9df2aef4c.gif 

 

Looking at the last 30 days of rainfall, it would appear that we've had a decent amount.
nws_precip_georgia_30-16.thumb.png.4a394bab0834d95dcbb78a62b577a492.png

 

But if you look at it from the "percent of normal" point of view, you will see that's not the case.

nws_precip_georgia_p30-16.thumb.png.b9ce1981cfa7dd5349f110569f870bbc.png

 

Here's a look at the rain from the day before.

nws_precip_georgia_1-16.thumb.png.2dbe187447a31b89c97ae5bfbca493ab.png

Mentally, I can't process this. It seems like that's all it has done this year is rain 

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