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NorthGeorgiaWX

April 11, Thursday

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Good Thursday morning! You've almost made it to the end of the week!  Here in Gwinnett, there are 29 more "school" days left (with the children), and teachers are counting down... 😉

I know that some in the media have been discussing the possibility of severe weather on Sunday. Yes, there is a chance. But I also don't believe that it does a lot of good to play up the fears that some have about severe weather. About 1 out of 10 people have severe anxieties/fears about tornadoes, and those fears extend to thunder and lightning. Just watch your dog sometime during a thunderstorm if you don't believe it. 

I try to play down the severe weather threat until I know for a fact what and where that threat is. To broad brush a severe potential days in advance without knowing specifics is like crying wolf. The only thing that accomplishes is making people more fearful and that's not what I'm trying to do. I DO want you to be aware of the potential and be prepared, but certainly not fearful. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lilapsophobia)

So... let's look at what the experts are saying first... as always, the bold and font colors are my own highlights.

Storm Prediction Center Day 4-8 Outlook (Day 3 is here)

Quote

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0327 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2019

   Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   On D4/Sunday, one or two linear convective complexes should be
   ongoing across the Deep South near a cold front and ahead of a
   vigorous mid-level trough over MO/AR.  Each of these features will
   gradually shift eastward throughout the day, and although mid-level
   lapse rates weaken with eastward extent, strong flow aloft and
   surface heating in the pre-storm environment should enable damaging
   thunderstorm wind gusts from Alabama though western South Carolina. 
   A 15% risk area is maintained and shifted slightly westward to
   account for a recent model trends that slow eastward progression of
   the convection in that area.  A lower risk for severe will be
   possible farther north toward the Ohio Valley and eastward across
   the Mid-Atlantic, with weak instability being the main mitigating
   factor for both of those areas.

 

SPC Severe Probabilities

day48prob-11.gif.19c4ff4b1f8d0d1ce269404dc94c1839.gif

 

NWS Atlanta Discussion (Find this here at DaculaWeather.com and on this site here)

Quote

The next system digs into the southern Plains Saturday ejecting a cold front
into the lower Mississippi Valley late Saturday and across the CWA
Sunday/Sunday evening. There are timing differences between the
GFS/ECMWF with the cold front and the associated band of
showers/tstorms. The GFS is faster than the ECMWF and at this time
will continue to broadbrush pops for Sunday/Sunday night. CAPES and
shear still running high with this system and will continue with
severe terminology in the HWO for Sunday.

 

Grabbed a few images from the CIPS Analog Guidance showing the the closest matches to past setups, and based on what the models are showing now, the majority of severe will be over LA/MS/AL. We are still pretty far out for specifics, so a couple more days are needed to really hone in on the details about what "might" happen where. 

% of the top 15 analogs that had >1 tornado report within 110 km of any point. 

PRTORNC01_gfs215F072-11.png.f1b67b2bd5d269114a6f85120ba9f97d.png

 

% of the top 15 analogs that had >1 severe weather report within 110 km of any point. 

PRALLC01_gfs215F072-011.png.e3987b17a97ed05ce9388bebb656021c.png

 

Before Sunday gets here, we have rain returning to the forecast starting later this evening. 

Quote

SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...
A fairly quiet night across the CWA will lead into a mostly dry and
breezy day today. In the south and east, increasing low level
moisture has led to the formation of patchy dense fog that is
expected to clear by late morning. As high pressure continues to nose
down the Appalachians, a weak wedge will form over portions of
northeast Georgia. In addition, strong southeasterly winds are
expected today with sustained winds in the 10-20 mph range with
gusts in the 20-30 mph range. While winds are expected to die down
slightly overnight across much of the area, strong winds will
continue across the higher elevations through the early morning
hours of Friday. Overall, the highest winds are expected across
northern Georgia. As of the current forecast, winds are just under
wind advisory criteria, although some isolated spots in the higher
elevations are expected to be just at criteria. High temperatures
today will be warm, in the 80s across the area with 70s in the
mountains.

Later on, a lifting warm front will help spark precip across
southern portions of the CWA later in the evening before spreading
north overnight. As such, have continued slight chance pop for later
this afternoon mainly across southern portions of the area, leading
into chance pops for this evening/overnight, before introducing
likely pops across the mountains in the overnight period into Friday
morning. Temperatures overnight are expected to be in the 50s in the
mountain with 60s elsewhere, nearly 15-20 degrees above average.

For Friday, a cold front begins to approach the area but looks to
stall right near the area by early afternoon. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible through much of Friday. There is some
instability with this system so some strong storms may be possible.
Temperatures on Friday are expected to be in the upper 70s and 80s,
with slightly lower temperatures across northwest GA.

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO)

Quote

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

A cold front will move into the Tennessee Valley late Friday,
stalling across north Georgia Friday night. The front will move
north out of the area Saturday. This front will be the focus for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms Friday through Saturday,
mainly across north Georgia. A few of these storms could be strong
with gusty winds.

A stronger cold front will move across north and central Georgia
Sunday and Sunday night bringing another round of showers and
thunderstorms to the region. Instability will increase along and
ahead of the cold front Sunday and Sunday night causing a few
storms to become severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

 

Hope everyone has a great Thursday!

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Morning!  It’s a beautiful sunny morning here. Clouds slowly making an appearance.

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16 minutes ago, MNW said:

Morning!  It’s a beautiful sunny morning here. Clouds slowly making an appearance.

We had some clouds and fog move in about an hour ago or so, but it's starting to get lighter. Should end up being a beautiful day (except for the pollen!)

GOES13512019101u0ueD0.jpg.8e0c985c0bb5008b7f119c9eadf804cc.jpg

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Morning steve! for the longest time I guess I never looked up the actual name for the fear of thunderstorms, but when I saw it I wish I knew along time ago because as a kid in the 90's storms in marietta were terrorizing. but fears can become passions as mine is weather. too bad i cant make a job out of it... keep up the good work. 

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3 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Did you watch the video I just posted? 🙂

Well, they say if you ask a funny question, you get a funny answer...

 

But seriously, no, not yet

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