Jump to content
  • Forum Image

Recommended Posts

Good Friday morning! You made it to the weekend!

Well... now that we're within 3 days, it's time to start talking about the severe weather potential for Sunday. The first place I always look to for severe weather information is the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). These guys are as good as it gets when it comes to forecasting severe weather. 

The SPC now has us in an area of "Enhanced Risk" for Sunday:

GA_swody3-12.png.c7a86e8a2ee2f3c0ac39830815176a38.png

Quote

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2019

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
   OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong/severe thunderstorms are anticipated Sunday -- centered over
   the mid and upper Ohio Valley, and central and southern
   Appalachians.

   ...Synopsis...
   A strong mid- and upper-level trough exiting the Plains early in the
   period is expected to advance steadily east across the
   Mississippi/Tennessee/Ohio Valleys and central Gulf Coast states,
   reaching a position from the lower Great Lakes to the southern
   Appalachians/Southeast late in the period.

   At the surface, a deepening low is forecast to shift east-northeast
   across the Ohio Valley through the day, and then across the central
   Appalachians to the Hudson Valley vicinity by the end of the period.
   Widespread thunderstorms -- and a broad severe risk -- will
   accompany this system.

   ...The Ohio Valley and central Appalachians south to the
   Southeast...
   Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing in a
   north-south band from Indiana to Alabama early in the period, ahead
   of the advancing cold front.  As modest heating of a moistening
   pre-frontal warm sector commences, 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE
   is expected to evolve ahead of the ongoing band of convection, from
   the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast.  This should result in a gradual
   intensification of storms through the afternoon, aided by a very
   strong deep-layer wind field accompanying this storm system --
   including 80 to 100 kt south-southwest flow at mid levels.

   Primary storm mode is progged to be banded/loosely linear, with
   embedded/complex bows and rotating updrafts.  Damaging winds will
   likely be the primary threat, though tornadoes will also be possible
   across much of the area -- particularly near and west of the
   mountains.  Risk should diminish gradually through the evening,
   though local wind risk may persist through the end of the period.

 

I am awaiting a new Atlanta NWS update (EDIT: here it is), but three of the upstream offices have already posted graphics about Sunday.

ffc_sunday_12.thumb.jpg.bfcb2903f0e08fae0639c4c7527074c0.jpg

image6-12.png.8b2a736b2a8bfa1e2b8c05c045ca557a.png

small1-12.png.58ac5d9d1e07ca4d530a758f0b2da62f.png

image6mrx-12.png.b9f09975185dfac32618561a0b8f5dce.png

 

More on this threat as I get more information.

The pollen count was even higher today, 2017, we need some rain!

Snap346062580-12.jpg.0eb09a011549b14f306c90d036967e64.jpg

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

Fear is building,

 

But I am glad to be informed

I'm one of those people with storm anxiety...that's why I always tune in to Steve! He tells me exactly what to expect.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Atlanta NWS showed up for the party...

ffc_sunday_12.thumb.jpg.275834a405e9054b47e4b82ca0fbd19a.jpg

What do you think will happen between now and them?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

What do you think will happen between now and them?

Not much, just some showers and maybe a general thunderstorm.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Not much, just some showers and maybe a general thunderstorm.

I meant more of, are any signs pointing to weakening or Strengthening?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

🙂 This is just a few hours after the Enhanced was issued. Wait until tomorrow for that question. 

Paranoia knows no patience.... LOL

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I normally stay put when I hear the chance of severe weather,  unfortunately we have tickets for a performance at the FOX Theater Sunday night...I hope this all dies down by then or my nerves will be a mess!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So I promise I read everything and try to understand it before asking questions.  But I haven't seen anything that answers my question yet.  Is Sunday (at this point) expected to be a complete washout or will there be times during the day when it's less likely to be storming?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From what I seen. It will be wide spread storms. I dont think it will be a washout. Forcast is calling for Thunderstorms for Sunday. But also it depends on where your at, when the storms will arrive in your area. If you read the map that NWSPC has put.  They talk about the timing of when the storms will arrive give or take a hour or 2. Its important not only look at the graphics but also read the information that come with the graphics, and it will answer alot of your questions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know its a long shot and I know its mainly afternoon but is there a timing for buford? super excited to see some good action.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have been reading about people leaving our area before Sunday. Isn’t it safer to stay put in a shelter? Thanks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Teamdmom said:

I normally stay put when I hear the chance of severe weather,  unfortunately we have tickets for a performance at the FOX Theater Sunday night...I hope this all dies down by then or my nerves will be a mess!

 

2 hours ago, momto2auties said:

So I promise I read everything and try to understand it before asking questions.  But I haven't seen anything that answers my question yet.  Is Sunday (at this point) expected to be a complete washout or will there be times during the day when it's less likely to be storming?

 

2 hours ago, firefighter556 said:

From what I seen. It will be wide spread storms. I dont think it will be a washout. Forcast is calling for Thunderstorms for Sunday. But also it depends on where your at, when the storms will arrive in your area. If you read the map that NWSPC has put.  They talk about the timing of when the storms will arrive give or take a hour or 2. Its important not only look at the graphics but also read the information that come with the graphics, and it will answer alot of your questions.

 

50 minutes ago, Jeff9702 said:

I know its a long shot and I know its mainly afternoon but is there a timing for buford? super excited to see some good action.

Here's the best way to get an hour by hour NWS forecast.

1) - Go to Daculaweather.com

2) - Scroll down to the forecast and choose your city/town or closest one to you. The page will refresh.

Snap346062581.thumb.jpg.d2916e4ce7faa469fd0cce5ce55baed9.jpg

 

3) - Scroll down to right below the text forecast, you'll see this link

Snap346062582.thumb.jpg.ee938b6267d6e17ea5796b5e423c58c6.jpg

 

4) - Once you click that link, a new page will open up that looks like this. Click the "Graphical Forecast" tab.

Snap346062583.thumb.jpg.8ab9cb20908fce6f5a9c91d7f0746c17.jpg

 

5) - You will see something that looks like this. The days of the week as well as hours are the horizontal axis. You may need to click on "Forward 2 Days" (see highlight) to see all of Sunday.  

Snap346062584.thumb.jpg.2ccb258fc1ab1606a06712e599ba09c3.jpg

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, TinaTrivett said:

I have been reading about people leaving our area before Sunday. Isn’t it safer to stay put in a shelter? Thanks.

Leaving what area? 

Even when we have severe weather, the chances of a severe storm hitting any given area are still relatively small. But if there is a good shelter where you are at, by all means, stay there and just stay alert.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Leaving what area? 

Even when we have severe weather, the chances of a severe storm hitting any given area are still relatively small. But if there is a good shelter where you are at, by all means, stay there and just stay alert.

Leaving N Ga. I was telling my husband it would make more sense to shelter in place. 

 

Thanks so much for everything.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

 

 

 

Here's the best way to get an hour by hour NWS forecast.

1) - Go to Daculaweather.com

2) - Scroll down to the forecast and choose your city/town or closest one to you. The page will refresh.

Snap346062581.thumb.jpg.d2916e4ce7faa469fd0cce5ce55baed9.jpg

 

3) - Scroll down to right below the text forecast, you'll see this link

Snap346062582.thumb.jpg.ee938b6267d6e17ea5796b5e423c58c6.jpg

 

4) - Once you click that link, a new page will open up that looks like this. Click the "Graphical Forecast" tab.

Snap346062583.thumb.jpg.8ab9cb20908fce6f5a9c91d7f0746c17.jpg

 

5) - You will see something that looks like this. The days of the week as well as hours are the horizontal axis. You may need to click on "Forward 2 Days" (see highlight) to see all of Sunday.  

Snap346062584.thumb.jpg.2ccb258fc1ab1606a06712e599ba09c3.jpg

 

 

Thank you Steve.  I didn't know that was available.  And, as I already said, I do read everything and try to understand it myself before asking.  Sorry.  I will try harder.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, momto2auties said:

Thank you Steve.  I didn't know that was available.  And, as I already said, I do read everything and try to understand it myself before asking.  Sorry.  I will try harder.

No problem! I try to help people learn! 🙂 Teach them to fish... 😉

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, TinaTrivett said:

I have been reading about people leaving our area before Sunday. Isn’t it safer to stay put in a shelter? Thanks.

Seriously? Good heavens, folks, it's just springtime in Georgia, not the zombie apocalypse.

And yes, you are exactly right, staying close to shelter is your best bet. The last thing you want to do in severe weather is get on the road.

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Who's Online   0 Members, 0 Anonymous, 5 Guests (See full list)

    There are no registered users currently online



  • DaculaWeather Twitter Feeds

×
×
  • Create New...