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Severe Weather for Sunday, April 14

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5 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

Dang... any good news to share?

For now, the forecast is what it is. As the line approaches in the morning we'll have to see how it behaves and go from there. 

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11 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

For now, the forecast is what it is. As the line approaches in the morning we'll have to see how it behaves and go from there. 

Okay

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...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   5%     - Slight
   Wind:     30%     - Enhanced
   Hail:     15%     - Slight

If I am understanding this right, tornadoes will not be the main issue tomorrow, yes there may be some, but the worst will be the wind, and the wind is the only reason there is an enhanced risk?

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24 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

If I am understanding this right, tornadoes will not be the main issue tomorrow, yes there may be some, but the worst will be the wind, and the wind is the only reason there is an enhanced risk?

Yes, this was expected given the likely linear nature of the storms. All modes of severe weather are possible but the primary threat is damaging straight line winds. Any one location may not see any severe weather tomorrow, but area wide the probabilities are high enough to warrant the risk. 

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1 minute ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Yes, this was expected given the likely linear nature of the storms. All modes of severe weather are possible but the primary threat is damaging straight line winds. Any one location may not see any severe weather tomorrow, but area wide the probabilities are high enough to warrant the risk. 

That is what I understood, thank you, while still worried, that does make me the sligtest bit less nervous

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12:25am and man, there are numerous strong tornadoes crossing over into Alabama right now... I really hope this weakens before it gets to our area. Storms have not initiated near the Gulf, so no cut off of energy yet...

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25 minutes ago, SuperCell said:

12:25am and man, there are numerous strong tornadoes crossing over into Alabama right now... I really hope this weakens before it gets to our area. Storms have not initiated near the Gulf, so no cut off of energy yet...

Yeah this one in particular just after midnight near the AL/MS border is one of the stronger tornado signatures I've seen. Screenshot_20190414-004735.thumb.png.d501e0237281eb5ccba8d84eaefc57f7.png

How things evolve over the next 4-6 hours will be interesting. Still think at least slight weakening starting over eastern Alabama is a good bet. 

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Update 2:46 am Sunday

Good news... the "Enhanced" Risk area has shifted north and away from our area.

day1otlk-14.gif.e25edb55955930c0cd96b421174df988.gifday1probotlk_hail-14.gif.2871ab3ad286be74e6e41851e5accbca.gifday1probotlk_wind-14.gif.cfb3b85cbecadebff24583e2e654bf6c.gifday1probotlk_torn-14.gif.93a90390ceb6e5291b4ab206d339cc9c.gif

 

SE Radar

503325300_Snap34606261014.thumb.jpg.d33c4e2e51b8e3db07587342d8a4d00a.jpg

 

Birmingham Radar

20190414_0646_kbmx_BR_0.5-14-1.thumb.png.3c5f905b4a5f0e76c5c534403c8ed7b1.png

 

Huntsville Radar

20190414_0648_khtx_BR_0.5-14-1.thumb.png.5fca24aa4cb0b20a2648de9f8630e3bb.png

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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Quote

...Eastern AL...GA...SC...
   A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of
   the period across eastern AL or perhaps as far east as western GA.
   With the forcing for ascent (both associated with the parent upper
   trough and surface low) shifting northeastward, the expectation is
   for much of this convection to be waning, supported predominantly by
   a moist low-level air mass and modest convergence along the outflow.
   Even so, vertical shear will remain strong and few of the more
   persistent storms may be able to produce damaging wind gusts through
   the late afternoon.

 

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ww0057_radar-14.gif.78efcc8a057f468e8e1170dc0ca551bd.gif

 

Quote

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 57
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   100 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Eastern Alabama
     Southern middle and southeastern Tennessee

   * Effective this Sunday morning from 100 AM until 900 AM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...This watch wraps around northern and eastern sides of
   tornado watch 55, per coordination with affected local NWS offices. 
   A band of severe thunderstorms may pose a continuing risk of wind
   damage and sporadic tornadoes as it moves across the new watch area
   through the pre-dawn hours. See SPC mesoscale discussion 333 for
   initial meteorological reasoning.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 5 miles south southwest of Montgomery
   AL to 70 miles north northeast of Huntsville AL. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

 

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The Huntsville radar shows a cluster of severe thunderstorms that are moving north-northeast, while the entire line pushes east. 

20190414_0851_khtx_BR_0.5-14-2.thumb.png.e8c7413dcbb82da03d39be52aff43934.png

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mcd0125-14.gif.2caa0dc1cfb54ad683b6ed6b379a9d76.gif

Quote

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0125
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
445 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Areas affected...Northern and central AL....far northwest GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140845Z - 141145Z

Summary...
Short term training along an eastward moving convective
line could pose a flash flood threat into the morning hours.

Discussion...
Regional radars continue to show a line of convection
becoming more linear with time over northern and central AL, as
the mid level flow becomes more west southwest with time ahead of
a closed mid level low over eastern Oklahoma. The convection is
embedded in an axis of 1000-1500 J/KG of MUCAPE (which is seen in
the 06z soundings in the Southeast), with the best moisture just
west of the instability axis.

Rainfall rates with the cells in the line are still above 2.00
inches, based on the KMOB/KBMX radars (though this could be hail
contaminated, since the HCA products from each radar indicated the
presence of hail). This is occurring where northeast moving cells
on the line are repeating in the short term (less than 45
minutes). While the convection should undergo a slow weakening
with time (as it begins to outrun its instability source), the
threat for flash flooding should exist as long as the threat of
short term training exists.

The main threat for flash flooding appear to be across northern
and central AL, where highest threat for short term training. This
concept is supported by the most recent HRRR runs, though it
should be noted that the HRRR is slower than reality across much
of western and central AL. The most recent HRRR indicated the
potential for local 3.00 inch rainfall amounts over central AL,
and based on current radar trends, those amounts are feasible.

The threat for flash flooding is expected to decrease with time,
as the line comes more linear, supported by the most recent RAP
propagation vectors.

 

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mcd0335-14.gif.ec465a340c37c35fbe2f9ee5d24aa9a6.gif

Quote

   Mesoscale Discussion 0335
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0420 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

   Areas affected...portions of Alabama...middle/southeastern
   Tennessee...and northwestern Georgia

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 57...

   Valid 140920Z - 141115Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 57 continues.

   SUMMARY...
   The threat for tornadoes and wind damage continues for WW
   57.  A new tornado watch may eventually be needed downstream after
   1030-1100Z.

   DISCUSSION...
   A broken band of convection continues near the I-65
   corridor from middle Tennessee into central Alabama currently.  A
   few of these storms have exhibited signatures consistent with brief
   tornadoes - most recently in Shelby County near BMX.  These storms
   continue in a strongly sheared, yet weakly unstable environment,
   with enough instability present to maintain the severe threat
   through the eastern extent of WW 57.  An estimated 230/45 storm
   motion should take these storms toward the eastern end of the WW
   around 11Z or so, and a downstream tornado watch issuance will
   probably be needed.

 

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Ummm, it's possible. At 5:20 am the SPC mentioned a new watch may be needed.

30 minutes ago, TinaTrivett said:

Do you foresee NE Ga getting a tornado watch? Thanks.

 

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Snap346062612-14.thumb.jpg.3c216202c7025e3a433d29616a34f269.jpg

ww0059_overview_wou.gif.467c12d2d04ed81d017cfac9872fdb37.gif

Quote

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 59
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   725 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     northern and western Georgia

   * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 725 AM until
     200 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
     Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...A band of strong/locally severe storms will move
   into/across northern and western Georgia over the next several
   hours, where locally damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will
   be possible.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 55 miles northeast of Rome GA to 60
   miles southeast of Columbus GA. For a complete depiction of the
   watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 57...WW 58...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
   storm motion vector 24040.

 

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The line approaching the NW corner is showing signs of embedded rotation along with pockets of strong winds... keep a close eye on it for possible warning.

20190414_1144_kffc_BR_0.5-14-4.thumb.png.f32b4e0132c6ff8e9bf0474c375d24c7.png

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