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NorthGeorgiaWX

Severe Weather for Sunday, April 14

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7 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Sometime later this afternoon.

Will it be like this morning, or worse

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6 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

How dense is the cloud base behind this line? Or is sun likely as the afternoon progresses? Might be the determining factor for intensity this afternoon. 

Brief break..

GOES15012019104KZGEHY.jpg.e65c52879f1d59ede9e089ebfdbdd56e.jpg

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Posted (edited)

And here comes the thunder, lol.

Do you suppose God is reading this board?

:classic_laugh:

 

 

Edited by Tanith
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UPDATE: 11:33 am Saturday

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1131 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2019

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AFTERNOON POPS TO HOLD ONTO A SLOWER PROPAGATION OF THE INITIAL
BAND OF STORMS. HI-RES SOLUTIONS OF THE HRRR AND NAM NEST ARE 
CONSISTENTLY HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS 
OF NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL FRONT AND EAST OF 
TROUGH AXIS SO WHILE THIS INITIAL ROUND HAS DAMAGING WIND AND 
BRIEF TORNADO THREATS, THE AFTERNOON COULD STILL HAVE DAMAGING 
WIND AND PERHAPS HAIL THREATS WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. DON'T 
LET YOUR GUARD DOWN AFTER THIS FIRST PRE-FRONTAL WAVE.
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1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

UPDATE: 11:33 am Saturday

 


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1131 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2019

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AFTERNOON POPS TO HOLD ONTO A SLOWER PROPAGATION OF THE INITIAL
BAND OF STORMS. HI-RES SOLUTIONS OF THE HRRR AND NAM NEST ARE 
CONSISTENTLY HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS 
OF NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL FRONT AND EAST OF 
TROUGH AXIS SO WHILE THIS INITIAL ROUND HAS DAMAGING WIND AND 
BRIEF TORNADO THREATS, THE AFTERNOON COULD STILL HAVE DAMAGING 
WIND AND PERHAPS HAIL THREATS WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. DON'T 
LET YOUR GUARD DOWN AFTER THIS FIRST PRE-FRONTAL WAVE.

But extremely low if not no Tornado Risk?

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mcd0340-14.gif.76a0ba2ac5508122f560c19ea1c4a55e.gif

   Mesoscale Discussion 0340
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1048 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

   Areas affected...Piedmont of northeast Georgia...Carolina into
   Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 141548Z - 141745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorm development is underway
   along and to the lee of the southern Appalachians.  Trends are being
   monitored.  However, while one or more tornado watches may be
   needed, current expectations are that this will be most probable in
   the 1-3 PM EDT (perhaps later) time frame.

   DISCUSSION...With the eastward progression of a significant
   large-scale trough, now over the Mississippi Valley, and a deepening
   surface cyclone migrating northeastward through the lower Ohio
   Valley, the large-scale environment appears in the process of
   becoming increasingly conducive to severe storm development to the
   lee of the southern Appalachians.  The boundary layer has become
   seasonably moist with surface dew points generally in the upper 60s.
   However, mid-level lapse rates are fairly modest, and areas of
   mostly stratiform precipitation as well as mid/high cloudiness are
   at least slowing insolation.  Mixed-layer CAPE is still somewhat
   modest (less than 1000 J/kg), though deep layer and low-level shear
   are already fairly strong, and strengthening.

   Most model output generally appears to suggest that the most
   substantive severe weather potential may not commence until sometime
   later this afternoon, gradually spreading northeastward across the
   piedmont, from northeast Georgia through North Carolina.  This is
   expected to accompany the onset of stronger surface pressure falls
   and peak boundary layer destabilization, when probabilities for
   supercells with the risk for tornadoes and damaging wind gusts are
   expected to maximize.

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12 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

mcd0340-14.gif.76a0ba2ac5508122f560c19ea1c4a55e.gif


   Mesoscale Discussion 0340
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1048 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

   Areas affected...Piedmont of northeast Georgia...Carolina into
   Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 141548Z - 141745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorm development is underway
   along and to the lee of the southern Appalachians.  Trends are being
   monitored.  However, while one or more tornado watches may be
   needed, current expectations are that this will be most probable in
   the 1-3 PM EDT (perhaps later) time frame.

   DISCUSSION...With the eastward progression of a significant
   large-scale trough, now over the Mississippi Valley, and a deepening
   surface cyclone migrating northeastward through the lower Ohio
   Valley, the large-scale environment appears in the process of
   becoming increasingly conducive to severe storm development to the
   lee of the southern Appalachians.  The boundary layer has become
   seasonably moist with surface dew points generally in the upper 60s.
   However, mid-level lapse rates are fairly modest, and areas of
   mostly stratiform precipitation as well as mid/high cloudiness are
   at least slowing insolation.  Mixed-layer CAPE is still somewhat
   modest (less than 1000 J/kg), though deep layer and low-level shear
   are already fairly strong, and strengthening.

   Most model output generally appears to suggest that the most
   substantive severe weather potential may not commence until sometime
   later this afternoon, gradually spreading northeastward across the
   piedmont, from northeast Georgia through North Carolina.  This is
   expected to accompany the onset of stronger surface pressure falls
   and peak boundary layer destabilization, when probabilities for
   supercells with the risk for tornadoes and damaging wind gusts are
   expected to maximize.

This is gonna sound dumb, but can you explain this in a way that a person who is not a meteorologist would understand 

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14 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

HRRR and NAM have both been insistent on storm mode being cellular this evening over the northeast part of the state which is concerning. 

Agree they look like discrete cells. Concerning for sure. 

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18 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

HRRR and NAM have both been insistent on storm mode being cellular this evening over the northeast part of the state which is concerning. 

Any chance we can see a loop or pictures of HRRR and NAM? So we can see what you mean?

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35 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

This is gonna sound dumb, but can you explain this in a way that a person who is not a meteorologist would understand 

It just means that the atmosphere in that part of the state will start to quickly destabilize this afternoon once the sun makes an appearance. A new line will form at that point.

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Just now, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

It just means that the atmosphere in that part of the state will start to quickly destabilize this afternoon once the sun makes an appearance. A new line will form at that point.

Will Tornado Chances grow?

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

New tornado watch will be issued...

Is the earlier tornado watch still expiring at 2?

Also...  DACULA POSSIBLY IN THE PATH OF A TORNADO STAY SAFE STEVE

Edited by Asperman1

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Thunderstorm warning in eastern Lumpkin county. However, I'm on the west side of the county and the storm in question has already passed us by. I even see Mr. Sun peeking through.

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Just now, Tanith said:

Thunderstorm warning in eastern Lumpkin county. However, I'm on the west side of the county and the storm in question has already passed us by. I even see Mr. Sun peeking through.

Sun may not be so good...

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