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NorthGeorgiaWX

April 18, Thursday

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Good Thursday morning to you!

Man, wasn't yesterday great! Today will be pretty much the same except with more clouds, but later tonight and into the morning hours we will see showers and thunderstorms, with some of those thunderstorms being severe. Here's the 4:46 am update from the Atlanta NWS office:
http://wx.northgeorgiawx.com/ffc_afd_rec.html/

Quote

Main focus is on severe potential with strong frontal system ahead
of an amplifying upper cutoff low set to push across the area late
tonight into Friday. Still some timing inconsistencies in hi-res
solutions though likely will have the showers and storms push into
the NW near midnight tonight, then north GA and west central GA by 8
AM, and finally east central GA the rest of Friday morning. While
progged CAPE looks a bit more limited (near 500-1000 J/kg) than the
last more widespread event given more unfavorable timing in the
overnight/morning, the shear remains impressive both in the bulk
deep layer and low level helicity. Still thinking main threats will
be with damaging winds and brief spin up tornadoes. SPC outlooks do
have Slight to Marginal Risks tonight and now an expanded Enhanced
Risk for east central GA before the system pushes eastward Friday

morning. QPF looks to be mainly 1-1.5 inches with locally higher so
some isolated flooding is possible as well especially with any storm
training.

Even though the cold front pushes east of the area by midday Friday,
the wrap around moisture and upper cutoff dynamics will allow for
continued showers across the northern majority of the area with
temps dropping through the day (much of north GA falling to the low
to mid 50s by afternoon).

 

The Storm Prediction Center says this in their Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spc_day2_outlook.php

Quote

...Synopsis...
   Deep upper trough extending along the MS Valley at the beginning of
   the period will continue eastward on Friday while deepening and
   maturing. Resulting mid-latitude cyclone will move across TN and
   northern portions of MS and AL, continuing eastward and ending the
   period over the southern Appalachians. A strong and expansive wind
   field will accompany this mid-latitude cyclone, with strengthening
   expected as it spreads across the Mid-Atlantic States. By 00Z, a
   corridor of 100+ kt 500-mb winds will likely extend from GA into
   southwest VA while a corridor of 50+ kt 850-mb winds exists from
   just off the Southeast coast northward into southern NJ/southeast
   PA.

   ...Northern/Central Florida...Southeast GA...
   Mature convective line is expected to extend from northwest GA into
   the central FL Panhandle at the beginning of the period. Given the
   displacement north of the better low-level moisture and instability,
   northern portion of this line will likely be weak and unorganized.
   However, ample low-level moisture and sufficient instability will
   exist across southern GA and adjacent portions of the FL Panhandle.
   Additionally, strong low- to mid-level flow will also be in place,
   supporting large, looping low-level hodographs and robust vertical
   shear. These factors suggest the convective line will maintain an
   organized structure and vigorous updrafts capable of damaging wind
   gusts as it moves eastward across southern GA and northern FL.
   Line-embedded tornadoes are possible as well. The forcing for ascent
   will gradually lift north throughout the day and the expectation is
   for the line to begin weakening as it enters the central FL
   Peninsula during the late afternoon. 

   ...Mid-Atlantic States...
   Northern portion of the convective line moving into GA at the
   beginning of the period will likely be poorly organized, largely a
   result of weak instability. Gradual re-intensification of this line
   appears probable as it continues eastward into better low-level
   moisture, higher instability, and a strengthening low-level jet.
   Some potential exists for this redevelopment to occur with more
   orthogonal orientation to the deep shear vector. All of these
   factors suggest a well-organized convective line capable of damaging
   wind gusts will move across the Carolinas. Given the strength of the
   flow and at least some potential for backing of the surface winds,
   embedded tornadoes are also possible. 

GA_swody1-18.png.86cba69ea189f475d92e80f7ca07746c.pngGA_swody2-18.png.689d85b229b42f30b67bb6ec88ad08e6.png

On one hand, we are very fortunate to have this come through during the late night/early morning hours, as the weaker instability due to lack of atmospheric heating will reduce the potential for higher storm intensities. On the other hand... any storms that can maintain sufficient strength will be capable of damaging winds or even a tornado, and tornadoes at night are a bad combination, especially in areas where trees and hills can hide their existence.  Make sure you have your phone or other methods of receiving alerts near your bed tonight.  

Hope you took advantage of these couple of warm days... 'cause Friday and Saturday are going to be much cooler. 

Highs Friday

ndfd_t2max_atl_2-18.thumb.png.323d3262d8c961a0e96409a9ab54073a.png

Highs Saturday

ndfd_t2max_atl_3-18.thumb.png.98f1c6ece0c9cd221a66da9e7de55c80.png

 

Those Saturday highs are WELL below normal for this time of the year, while the low anomalies aren't quite as bad.

Saturday High Temp Anomalies

ndfd_t2max_anom_atl_3-18.thumb.png.2eb9eae48b3cd686bcd77618eed3784a.png

Saturday and Sunday Low Temp Anomalies

ndfd_t2min_anom_atl_3-18.thumb.png.43ebe4e20e2fb7fafc4c73291bb74500.png

Temperatures rebound quickly on Sunday back into the mid 70's and we should have sunny skies and highs near 80 through Wednesday. 

I've created a new page I call "Today's Severe Weather Climatology". All the images come from the Storm Prediction Center and are display the historical probabilities for various severe weather modes like wind, hail, tornadoes, any severe, etc. on a given date. It's a quick way to see all of the images at once for any given date. 
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spc_today_climo.php

I'll be following the severe weather potential today and if it looks to be a little stronger than anticipated, I'll create a new post for it, otherwise I'll post the updates here. 

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WOOHOO!!!! Today's pollen count is 20!!

pollen-18.jpg.0634c927679027b8fc6c9457472074cc.jpg

 

As long as I'm sharing... here are some peaceful views of the Smokies this morning.

grcd-18.jpg.98965f0bc47f2b4d05c4014ad7b71ab9.jpggrpk.jpg.2b6d92999268d6f3522292f81cecc656.jpggrsm-18.jpg.3b0e558b3537e6987c0c655f56efaad0.jpg

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Pollen count of 20?? if that isn't a mistake, THAT"S AMAZING

 

Anyways, now that it is closer, I can ask: 

What do you Think Dawson will get? I ask because, unless I am not understanding fully, it seems like it will hit Dawson when students are going to school 

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16 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

Pollen count of 20?? if that isn't a mistake, THAT"S AMAZING

 

Anyways, now that it is closer, I can ask: 

What do you Think Dawson will get? I ask because, unless I am not understanding fully, it seems like it will hit Dawson when students are going to school 

Timing is still questionable. Ask me again later this afternoon. 

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Just speaking for here in the mountains this seems to be the worst pollen day we've had so far, but I suppose it'd make sense for us to be a bit behind peak in Atlanta. Our oaks were a bit late to bloom and they've just flowered in the last day or so, and needless to say we've got a lot of oak trees up here lol. 

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45 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

Do you consider what we will get tonight a Severe Weather Outbreak?

I personally would not. It's just a weather system that could produce some strong/severe storms. But given that it's spring in the south, that's true for pretty much every weather system. True outbreaks are far more rare and require perfect ingredients, including timing. 

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14 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

I personally would not. It's just a weather system that could produce some strong/severe storms. But given that it's spring in the south, that's true for pretty much every weather system. True outbreaks are far more rare and require perfect ingredients, including timing. 

And those things are not present?

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4 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

No, not when the system passes our area. 

Any news on Timing and Severity?

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I don't mind a plain old "garden variety" thunderstorm in the night, truth be told. Depending on what I'm reading, it makes for great atmosphere!

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Posted (edited)

Steve, have you seen the MCV moving into Alabama. Looks awesome on radar!

(I tried to get it in motion for all to see but it was to large)

Inkedus_radarus-en-087-0_2019_04_18_498_KBMX_360_214000_LI.jpg

Edited by Shannon
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12 minutes ago, TinaTrivett said:

I was wondering if that bow echo coming into Alabama will weaken any before coming our way..? Thanks.

It should. Depending where you are at least. For Atlanta Metro proper and north we are lucky with it coming in around day break or just prior to that. 

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I’ll be watching closely here in Dallas, each time I’ve seen maps and projections there’s an ugly storm very close to my area. Makes a girl nervous. I’ll be expecting my kiddos running into my bed before sunrise. 

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Just now, Shannon said:

Based off my eye and the models it seems to be a little ahead of schedule. 

Will that mean the weather we get here will be worse? Or is the speed using more energy 

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Don't be scared. Just a few severe thunderstorms in Alabama right now. New Severe Thunderstorm Watch coming our shortly

 

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