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NorthGeorgiaWX

April 18, Thursday

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Just now, Asperman1 said:

Will that mean the weather we get here will be worse? Or is the speed using more energy 

It could be. This isn’t easy to forecast. The NWS just said it is ahead of schedule and could be in the western metro by 11 and noted 60+ MPH wind is possible. 

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WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 85
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
822 PM EDT THU APR 18 2019

GAC015-035-045-053-055-057-063-067-077-079-083-089-097-113-115-
121-129-143-145-149-151-171-193-197-199-207-215-223-231-233-249-
255-259-261-263-269-285-293-295-307-190700-
/O.NEW.KFFC.SV.A.0085.190419T0022Z-190419T0700Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
85 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN GEORGIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 40 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL GEORGIA

BUTTS                 CRAWFORD              MONROE               

IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA

CHEROKEE              CLAYTON               COBB                 
DEKALB                DOUGLAS               FAYETTE              
FULTON                HENRY                 

IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA

BARTOW                CARROLL               CHATTOOGA            
DADE                  FLOYD                 GORDON               
HARALSON              PAULDING              POLK                 
WALKER                

IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA

CHATTAHOOCHEE         COWETA                HARRIS               
HEARD                 LAMAR                 MACON                
MARION                MERIWETHER            MUSCOGEE             
PIKE                  SCHLEY                SPALDING             
STEWART               SUMTER                TALBOT               
TAYLOR                TROUP                 UPSON                
WEBSTER               

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF AMERICUS, ATLANTA, BARNESVILLE, 
BREMEN, BUENA VISTA, BUTLER, CALHOUN, CARROLLTON, CARTERSVILLE, 
CEDARTOWN, COLUMBUS, DALLAS, DECATUR, DOUGLASVILLE, ELLAVILLE, 
FORSYTH, FORT BENNING, FRANKLIN, GRIFFIN, JACKSON, LAFAYETTE, 
MANCHESTER, MARIETTA, MONTEZUMA, NEWNAN, PEACHTREE CITY, 
PINE MOUNTAIN, PRESTON, RICHLAND, RIVERDALE, ROBERTA, ROME, 
STOCKBRIDGE, SUMMERVILLE, TALBOTTON, THOMASTON, TRENTON, 
WEST POINT, WOODSTOCK, AND ZEBULON.

Snap346062637-18.jpg

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Hmm...if it holds together, I guess that means I can look forward to being blasted awake by a thunderstorm watch later in the night.

:P

 

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3 minutes ago, Shannon said:

It could be. This isn’t easy to forecast. The NWS just said it is ahead of schedule and could be in the western metro by 11 and noted 60+ MPH wind is possible. 

I am really scared right now

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1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Showing signs of weakening

Do you think Dawsonville will get a Tornado?

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1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

No reason to be though...

I know, It has never been confirmed, but I think I have that storm phobia... I am just worried that a Tornado will hit my house in Dawsonville...

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25 minutes ago, Shannon said:

It should. Depending where you are at least. For Atlanta Metro proper and north we are lucky with it coming in around day break or just prior to that. 

I’m in Franklin County where a tornado hit close by Sunday night.

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5 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

The tornado threat is relatively tiny tonight. 

Okay, thank you, I am sorry for being a CryBaby

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I just absolutely cannot stand tornadoes.I can tolerate high wind, even some heavy rain or hail... Tornadoes just freak me out

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2 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

I just absolutely cannot stand tornadoes.I can tolerate high wind, even some heavy rain or hail... Tornadoes just freak me out

Me too. We’ll be okay. Just make sure your shelter is ready. We’ll all be discussing this tomorrow. ❤️

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5 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

I just absolutely cannot stand tornadoes.I can tolerate high wind, even some heavy rain or hail... Tornadoes just freak me out

It’s understandable. Thankfully we have several amazing meteorologists in our area that help keep us up to date on any new information. Try your best to take several deep breaths, know where to go if there is severe weather in your area. It’s always better to be prepared not scared. (Coming from someone who has severe storm anxiety) 

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6 minutes ago, TinaTrivett said:

Me too. We’ll be okay. Just make sure your shelter is ready. We’ll all be discussing this tomorrow. ❤️

Thank you 

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Asperman.  Knowledge is power. Phobias are natural. We all have different fears. May I suggest you learn to understand the basic weather terms and what you can of which you are fearful. If you can learn then you will know when and what 

if you had an understanding then you would know that tonight is totally different from last week   Tornado chances are very low for us.  Tomorrow for the East coast is a different story. They will have a screaming jet and instability 

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You couldn't live in a better part of the state if you hate tornados. In this northeast corner of the state, Dawson County included, they are extremely rare as we just almost always tend to be more stable than areas to our south and west. I've seen only one in my lifetime, and the conditions from that day likely won't be repeated for a very long time. That was the super outbreak in 2011 and days like that are nearly once in a lifetime here. Take comfort in knowing that the overwhelming majoritiy of tornados are only ef0 or ef1 in intensity, and as long as you take proper precautions they shouldn't be life threatening. The key is to not let your fear control you, as it could cause you to misjudge a situation and make a mistake. As Ricky said, turn that fear into power and try to learn as much as you can about them and what causes them. And then just always monitor NWS warnings and be ready to take precautions in the rare events that it is necessary. 

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5 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

You couldn't live in a better part of the state if you hate tornados. In this northeast corner of the state, Dawson County included, they are extremely rare as we just almost always tend to be more stable than areas to our south and west. I've seen only one in my lifetime, and the conditions from that day likely won't be repeated for a very long time. That was the super outbreak in 2011 and days like that are nearly once in a lifetime here. Take comfort in knowing that the overwhelming majoritie of tornados are only ef0 or ef1 in intensity, and as long as you take proper precautions they shouldn't be life threatening. The key is to not let your fear control you, as it could cause you to misjudge a situation and make a mistake. As Ricky said, turn that fear into power and try to learn as much as you can about them and what causes them. And then just always monitor NWS warnings and be ready to take precautions in the rare events that it is necessary. 

Thank you, that is something I did not, but am glad I do now, know

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 86 UNTIL
9 AM EDT THIS MORNING WHICH REPLACES A PORTION OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85. THE NEW WATCH IS VALID FOR THE FOLLOWING
AREAS

IN GEORGIA THE NEW WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES

IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA

MACON                 MERIWETHER            PIKE                 
TALBOT                TAYLOR                TROUP                
UPSON                 

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BUTLER, MANCHESTER, MONTEZUMA, 
TALBOTTON, THOMASTON, WEST POINT, AND ZEBULON.

Snap346062638-19.jpg

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mcd0141-19.gif.bb236f7a7e2a4d817439915a5cc5cddf.gif

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0141
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
157 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Areas affected...Florida Panhandle, Eastern Alabama, Western
Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190556Z - 191150Z

Summary...Thunderstorms were increasing around Midnight local time
from central Alabama into the western tip of the Florida
Panhandle. These storms should move to the northeast and may
repeatedly affect some locations, leading to localized heavy
rainfall and the potential for some flash flooding. Rain rates
around 1 in/hr will be common in most of the storms, but could
peak as high as 2 in/hr in some cases.

Discussion...Regional radars showed an increasingly organized band
of convection at 0530Z extending from ASN-MGM-PNS, or just east of
the I-65 corridor in Alabama. This renewed development was
occurring in the wake of an initial MCS that has since decayed;
GOES-16 IR satellite showed cold cloud tops in a similar location
around 03Z, but that MCS has all but vanished at this point.
Surface winds backed over eastern Alabama in the subsequent two
hours (03-05Z), likely in response to a slight surface ridge
developing in west-central Georgia, and an approaching cold front
from the west. This has increased low-level convergence and helped
focus the renewed development of thunderstorms. The initial MCS
likely outpaced the eastward progression of the instability and PW
axis closer to the cold front, but a corridor of MUCAPE in excess
of 1000 j/kg and PWs in excess of 1.7 inches exists across central
and eastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. This will support
vigorous convection through the early morning hours that may be
sustained as it lifts northeast into western Georgia in the 09-12Z
time frame as the cold front continues to progress. The
aforementioned orientation of the convective band is oriented
within about 20 degrees of the 850-300mb mean wind vectors, and
this favors at least some training convection and cell mergers in
the Florida Panhandle and eastern Alabama in the next several
hours. Therefore, localized maxima of heavy rainfall appear
likely. Many hi-res models indicate at least some swaths of 3+
inches of rainfall in the 06-12Z period, with rain rates peaking
in the 1-2 in/hr range.

Whether the training convection and localized opportunities for
several hours of heavy rain translate into flash flooding is still
uncertain. Flash flood guidance is relatively high (4+ inches in 6
hours or 3-4 inches in 3 hours) across the region and most
locations have seen rainfall close to average over the past few
weeks. USGS streamflow climatology indicates most regional rivers
and streams within the interquartile range, or reasonably close to
normal levels. Therefore, antecedent conditions don't especially
favor flash flooding, all other things being held equal.
Nevertheless, mesoscale conditions favor several hours of training
convection and if this intersects with vulnerable basins or urban
areas, some flooding issues may develop.

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mcd0396-19.gif.a82429cb691a3b316dfb4037475228ee.gif

   Mesoscale Discussion 0396
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0242 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

   Areas affected...southeast Alabama...west-central and southwest
   Georgia...and the Florida Panhandle

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 86...

   Valid 190742Z - 190945Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 86 continues.

   SUMMARY...Risk for isolated severe storms and a tornado or two
   continues.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a complex/near-continuous band
   of thunderstorms extending from northwest Georgia
   south-southwestward to western portions of the Florida Panhandle. 
   Ahead of the convection -- and associated surface front -- resides a
   moist boundary layer, with a narrow axis of ample instability over
   the Florida Panhandle and nosing into western Georgia.  

   Area VWPs continue to reveal strong/favorable shear, with flow
   veering/increasing with height to in excess of 60 kt through the
   lower half of the troposphere.  As such, organized convection --
   noted within the line where complex/rotating segments continue to
   evolve -- will likely persist.  Along with risk for locally damaging
   gusts, a tornado or two remain possible as well.  The greatest
   short-term threat appears to exist in east-central and southeast
   Alabama, in the Lee/Macon/Russell/Bullock county area where areas of
   transient rotation remain evident within the complex line.

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