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Good morning!

Well... another beautiful day in store today. Did anyone here experience any of those showers last night? Here is where it fell.

stp-02.thumb.png.82047bdb28ed897c5ca2ee3d7df614e3.png

 

Congratulations to those that got some, because many of us got nothing. 🙂 

So... for the short term

Quote

Over the next couple days the forecast hours will be between two
different synoptic systems. There`s a longwave trough with embedded
shortwaves in the western CONUS that will continue to bring in warm,
moist air from the Gulf. The longwave trough will advance eastward
over the next several days providing enhanced lift that will support
storm development in the northern and western CWA. To the Southeast,
a weak tropical low-pressure system (yes, you read that right, a
tropical system in the beginning of May) over the Bahamas will
advance towards the northwest bringing enhances moisture and rain
showers coming into the CWA from the southeast. So, what does this
mean for us.

For today, both of these systems will be advancing towards the CWA
with some but minimal influence in the forecast area. High-res CAM
solutions keep most of the heaviest showers just outside the
forecast area. A similar line of storms that formed yesterday will
once again form today, but is expected to stay mostly west into AL,
some light showers are expected in GA, but only slight chances are
expected. Showers may also be possible in the southern CWA from
gravity waves extending outward from the tropical low-pressure
system, but any precip is expected to be light and remain as
showers. Tomorrow, as both systems approach the area, showers and
thunderstorms will be much more widespread with a couple storm
thunderstorms possible at times

 

As far as the tropical system the NWS is talking about... the NHC has "x"  spot near the Bahama's for possible development over the next 2-5 days.

Snap3-02.thumb.jpg.9c330a4ab373439a9a87d281aeda251d.jpgSnap2-02.thumb.jpg.ba884b2d8841dc0e10b83d402cb4a0e2.jpg

 

The WPC doesn't see much in the way of rainfall over the next 7 days for many parts of Georgia, and central Georgia gets almost zilch.  Luckily north Georgia and the surrounding area are not in the rain-free hole.

wpc_total_precip_georgia_28-02.thumb.png.49de7f872a765d9765e760094ae30786.png

 

Long term:

Quote

The long term begins with an active southwest flow. Gulf moisture
will increase over the CWA Friday night into Saturday night as fast
moving impulses move across the southeast ahead of the main trough.
This will result in increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms,
peaking late Saturday and Saturday night. The associated surface
cold front will move across the CWA Sunday. Behind the front high
pressure builds into the southeast US. By mid week models diverge
somewhat with the GFS having a more amplified ridge over the eastern
US. As this ridge move east, Gulf moisture returns bringing another
chance of showers and thunderstorms. The ECMWF is less amplified and
maintains a dry pattern over the CWA for mid week. Will go with
compromise which the NBM/Superblend appear to be handling well.

 

So in other words... late spring early summer weather. I hope everyone can get out and enjoy the day! Have a good one!

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Is there a potential for severe on Saturday? I am confused, I thought it was just normal storms

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2 minutes ago, Jeff9702 said:

Think I heard something about hail on Saturday for Buford? That would be fun.

Possible, but I don't think that would be the main threat. The SPC thinks it might be wind

Quote

...Southern into central Appalachians and Piedmont...
   On the southern periphery of the southern branch troughing, it
   appears that a plume of at least modestly steep mid-level lapse
   rates may advect east-northeastward across the region, coincident
   with a belt of sheared, 30-50 kt 850-500 mb flow.  Despite somewhat
   modest boundary layer moisture for the time of year, models suggest
   that this may contribute to mixed-layer CAPE up to around 1000 J/kg.
   This environment may become at least marginally conducive to
   organized thunderstorm development, potentially capable of producing
   damaging wind gusts Saturday into Saturday night.

 

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1 minute ago, Asperman1 said:

Is there a potential for severe on Saturday? I am confused, I thought it was just normal storms

No severe... nowhere did I say severe.

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Mostly clear skies in store for today once some of the low clouds burn off. I know someone that would not like me saying "clouds burn off". I know that technically clouds don't burn... and I know you know that, it's just what you say to describe it. Not worth getting into... 🙄

Anyway... here's the current (as of 8:51 am) satellite view of the southeast.

GOES12512019122bbDL9c-02.jpg.641eaffcc3b7944da84438fe4fde6256.jpg

 

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26 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

No severe... nowhere did I say severe.

Sorry, someone mentioned hail so I got slightly worried 

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Wouldn't want to be going to the Kentucky Derby...

Quote

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1623Z THU MAY 02 2019


A regional Critical Weather Day (CWD) was declared for Central
Region from 02/1600Z to 03/1200Z, due to severe wx and flooding
concerns in support of Kentucky Derby related activities.


NCEP/NWSTG and the NCF are also participating in this CWD to
ensure a reliable flow of weather data. All scheduled
software/hardware/network changes for the impacted offices will
be postponed until the CWD has ended. NCEP Center Directors or
Deputies; NWS Regional Directors, their designees (e.g. ROCs); or
the NWS Senior Duty Meteorologist (SDM) will have the authority
to permit changes, tests and outages on a case-by-case basis, if
a greater risk is created by not completing these. NWS offices
should contact their regional offices for further questions about
this CWD.

 

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I was wondering if the Derby will be affected this year, well dang. I'm sure they'll still run but watching an insanely muddy race isn't much fun. :classic_dry:

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Steve are you going to issue a summer forecast this year? I sure hope Joe Bastardi ‘s forecast doesn’t verify! +3.0 would tie 2016 and 1925 as hottest on record!!! 2016 was horrible and can’t imagine 1925 , 33 100+ days in Athens with no AC!!!

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8 hours ago, Rusty said:

Steve are you going to issue a summer forecast this year? I sure hope Joe Bastardi ‘s forecast doesn’t verify! +3.0 would tie 2016 and 1925 as hottest on record!!! 2016 was horrible and can’t imagine 1925 , 33 100+ days in Athens with no AC!!!

His February 28th Summer Forecast

Quote
  • Warmer than normal summer for much of the nation is expected.
  • Warmth will be skewed because of nighttime lows.
  • Very warm SSTs near the coast will fuel another wet summer for many.
  • Daytime highs will be held down, perhaps enough for some below normal periods to show up.
  • El Niño questions still abound.

The Verdict

A warm, wet summer is expected for much of the nation, with night-time lows being the factor that tips the scale to more warmth.

So while he shows a +3 degree anomaly for us in the southeast, it is mainly due to above normal night time temperatures. With increased moisture around, the day time highs will be reduced but the night time lows increased. We may actually see high temps normal or even a little below, depending on the amount of rainfall we can get. 

The long term drought indicator shows the increase in  moisture levels. I've added several new images to this page including this one.
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_drought_state.php

lbfinal-02.thumb.gif.61d24f129674abfaeac6101cc3f1406e.gif

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