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Good morning! Your weekend has arrived!

And along with that weekend comes a chance for some showers and thunderstorms today. First, the Storm Prediction Center

Quote

   The Slight risk expanding from southern LA into the NC Piedmont
   depicts a relative maximum corridor of severe potential today into
   this evening. Midlevel flow of 30-50 kt will reside across this
   area, and aforementioned MCVs will track east/northeast within this
   corridor. Convection will likely be ongoing this morning across LA
   and parts of northern MS/AL. This activity is not likely to be
   severe, but could produce some strong gusts. The greater threat will
   exist into the afternoon downstream from these areas where stronger
   heating and surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F will
   result in MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Storm clusters and line segments
   will be capable mainly of damaging wind gusts, though pockets of
   modestly steep mid-level lapse rates could result in some near-severe
   hail. Hi-res guidance is fairly consistent in at least a couple of
   stronger forward-propagating line segments associated with the MCV
   features moving across southern LA/MS/AL closer to the Gulf Coast,
   and another moving across SC and the NC Piedmont. If these more
   organized line segment develop, they could be the focus for more
   widespread damaging-wind corridors. 

fema04_swody1-04.png.835ec3fd1b5d8d7db40eb096d31ba860.png

 

And the latest from the NWS

Quote

Broad, somewhat shallow, upper trough works its way across the
region today through Sunday. Still seeing sufficient instability,
dynamics and mid-level winds for increased chances for a few strong
to severe thunderstorms today into this evening. Best chances today
remain across the north where better dynamics and a weak frontal
boundary will help to enhance lift. Primary threat remains strong,
damaging winds and some marginal hail. For Sunday, focus shifts into
central Georgia, however diminishing instability and forcing
minimizes the risk for stronger thunderstorms.

 

So nothing to be too concerned about unless you are outside. Lot's of youth sports going on today, and the ballparks are not the safest place during a thunderstorm. I use to be president of Dacula Athletic Association (twice...) and I had the association purchase a handheld lightning detector. As you can see from this image, the detector had distances on it and the LED for that distance would light up when lightning was detected within that range. As soon as lightning caused the 3-8 mile light to come on, we cleared the fields. No one was allowed back until the lightning moved back outside that range. A baseball or softball game is not worth risking lives over so no reason to take any chances. The ump's loved it because we had a subjective way of halting play and it took that responsibility away from them. Coaches.... well... coaches. Coaches would play during a hurricane if you let them. 😉 

skyscan-p5-2-p5-lightning-detector-storm-detector-2.jpg.af29c5e0d79848ce69a389422b9dd1c6.jpg

 

So upper 70's to low 80's for highs today, with the cloud cover and rain helping to keep the temps down today and tomorrow, but expect 80's to return on Monday.

Hope everyone has a great Saturday!

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Oh yea.... that's what I'm talking about. Your Great Smoky Mountain National Parks views for the morning.

Purchase Knob

grpk-04.jpg.a48f8e739481c163689d8eea6bb6d3d9.jpg

 

Look Rock

grsm-04.jpg.05065dd5b91e48e2b225870a84d66ccb.jpg

 

Newfound Gap

gsng-04.thumb.jpg.742d72afc68a20fcd8ff21d706bbed9f.jpg

 

Clingman's Dome

grcd-04.jpg.eedbd80ecece88563b3a6393a8b9600d.jpg

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1 hour ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Good morning! Your weekend has arrived!

And along with that weekend comes a chance for some showers and thunderstorms today. First, the Storm Prediction Center

fema04_swody1-04.png.835ec3fd1b5d8d7db40eb096d31ba860.png

 

And the latest from the NWS

 

So nothing to be too concerned about unless you are outside. Lot's of youth sports going on today, and the ballparks are not the safest place during a thunderstorm. I use to be president of Dacula Athletic Association (twice...) and I had the association purchase a handheld lightning detector. As you can see from this image, the detector had distances on it and the LED for that distance would light up when lightning was detected within that range. As soon as lightning caused the 3-8 mile light to come on, we cleared the fields. No one was allowed back until the lightning moved back outside that range. A baseball or softball game is not worth risking lives over so no reason to take any chances. The ump's loved it because we had a subjective way of halting play and it took that responsibility away from them. Coaches.... well... coaches. Coaches would play during a hurricane if you let them. 😉 

skyscan-p5-2-p5-lightning-detector-storm-detector-2.jpg.af29c5e0d79848ce69a389422b9dd1c6.jpg

 

So upper 70's to low 80's for highs today, with the cloud cover and rain helping to keep the temps down today and tomorrow, but expect 80's to return on Monday.

Hope everyone has a great Saturday!

I hate to ask these questions but since they are usually not asked for thunderstorms, we have the afternoon planned to be out on Lanier. Would you recommend canceling or do you feel the storms will be isolated enough to give it a shot. 

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14 minutes ago, hallermanc said:

I hate to ask these questions but since they are usually not asked for thunderstorms, we have the afternoon planned to be out on Lanier. Would you recommend canceling or do you feel the storms will be isolated enough to give it a shot. 

Here's the HRRR model and the simulated radar. This goes through midnight tonight. You can see the coverage is scattered until the evening hours, but it's kinda like rolling the dice and seeing what will come up, there is no real skill in a location specific forecast with a setup like this. Just keep some radar handy and plan ahead.

Oh, and I have a page with all of the lake forecast: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_rec_emwin.php and it's also available from the menu at the top of this page under "Weather Data" "AFD's", and "Atlanta NWS"

Hope it works out for you!

681719013_HRRR3-kmGeorgiaSimulatedRadar-05.gif.752e3948d4bb5752d62e6d1520d523f9.gif

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I have a baseball game at 11:00am at Coal Mountain Park, games last an hour at the most usually, should I be able to play, or will storms be in that area by then?

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1 hour ago, Asperman1 said:

I have a baseball game at 11:00am at Coal Mountain Park, games last an hour at the most usually, should I be able to play, or will storms be in that area by then?

You may have showers and thunderstorms in the area, just do not know specific areas at specific times. That's why the NWS gives a % chance to the activity. The odds if you will. And for you, a 50%-60% chance today, and a 70% chance tonight. So at that time of the day I would say a little better than a 50% chance. Or you can just flip a coin. 😜

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This was issued 1 hour ago EDT or 12:30 our time

 

Quote

Mesoscale Discussion 0528
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1135 AM CDT Sat May 04 2019

   Areas affected...portions of northern Georgia and into the western
   Carolinas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 041635Z - 041800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe potential -- primarily in the form of locally
   gusty/damaging winds -- should increase gradually this afternoon. 
   WW may be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface and objective analyses show a
   warming/destabilizing airmass across parts of the southern
   Appalachians region/western Carolinas.  In response, convective
   development has been gradually increasing across this region, as
   mixed-layer CAPE increases to around 1500 J/kg.  

   Moderate (20 to 40 kt) and roughly unidirectional
   (west-southwesterly) flow is indicated through the lower and middle
   troposphere across the region, with 0 to 6 KM shear a bit weak for
   evolution of appreciable updraft rotation in cellular convection. 
   As such, only limited/local potential for gusty/damaging winds would
   be expected with isolated cells.  However, convection is showing
   signs of tendency for upscale growth into small bands.  The
   anticipated/continued linear evolution -- at least at small scales
   -- would allow greater risk for congealed convective outflow, with
   bands moving east-northeastward at 30 to 40 kt.  As additional storm
   development/upscale growth of storms occurs over the next 1-2 hours,
   damaging wind potential may become sufficient to warrant eventual WW
   issuance.

 

mcd0528-04.gif

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8 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

The game was stopped early due to Thunderstorms, I am kinda scared

Just thunderstorms

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13 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Just thunderstorms

Thank you Steve, were I am now, it sounds like a storm is directly over the building, but I am inside, away from trees and windows and listening to music to calm down. I am trying not to be scared, but it is hard

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12 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

Thank you Steve, were I am now, it sounds like a storm is directly over the building, but I am inside, away from trees and windows and listening to music to calm down. I am trying not to be scared, but it is hard

They will be over soon, at least this first round, but they will pop back up.

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8 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

They will be over soon, at least this first round, but they will pop back up.

Will they be worse, the same, or better?

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Here's the current SE radar view. You can see the first batch of rain exiting, and to our west, the next batch moving our direction.

Snap5-04.thumb.jpg.23a9b9ec68ce4f993830c10812e6da80.jpg

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