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Good Thursday morning!

Here comes the rain.

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Better chances for more substantial convection will be late this afternoon into the
evening. Cold front gets hung up in the Mississippi Valley today but
hi-res models continue to show a moderate and persistent line of
convection moving into the northwest and west portions of the area
during the late afternoon and advancing at least into the I-85

corridor before weakening this evening. Best instability and lift
remain west of the state through this time frame, but will be
sufficient for strong to marginally severe thunderstorms into the
northwestern corner of the forecast area. Should see a bit of a lull
through the overnight period but good coverage of showers and
thunderstorms again Friday as the region remains under southwesterly
mid/upper flow and the cold front settles into the region.

A stationary boundary across the southeast states will contribute to
unsettled weather for the weekend.

A stalled frontal boundary across northern GA will provide focus for
several rounds of convection through the weekend. At the beginning
of the period, the old frontal boundary should be situated just
south of the GA/NC/TN line. The models do push the boundary a bit
northward later Saturday into Sunday as a wave of low pressure moves
northeast along the boundary. The stronger wave of low pressure will
help drag the boundary through the remainder of the CWFA late Sunday
into early Monday. High pressure builds in for the remainder of the
long term period. Overall, there have been no major timing changes
to the forecast.

Not confident on how far north of the GA/TN/NC state line the
boundary will move, but the front should be close enough to the far
northern portion of the CWFA should retain the highest pops. In
addition, the axis of heaviest QPF remains in just about the same
place as yesterdays runs...mainly along and north of a Douglasville
to Atlanta to Athens line. However, the QPF values have increased,
especially across the highest elevations. Storm Total QPF from
Friday Night through Monday ranges from 1-2 inches north of
Interstate 20 with some locally higher amounts of 3-4 inches across

the higher terrain. South of I-20, values of an inch or less are
likely.

 

For today

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WPC 7 Day Rainfall Forecast

wpc_total_precip_nc_28-09.thumb.png.b90ce22f8dd7331e73758cf936dab6c8.png

 

So which rain song would you like to hear? 🙂 I checked all of my music and here's what I have with "rain" in the title. I have a few songs in my list. 😉

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1369004331_rainsongs_Page_1.thumb.jpg.df429600e81fcb7fb0e1f39e2a10b85c.jpg1920068875_rainsongs_Page_2.thumb.jpg.03cb9328bef60d9e7a5c6c83c4433f88.jpg663201699_rainsongs_Page_3.thumb.jpg.33d416d09eb4277adfed71f3496d7474.jpg142279558_rainsongs_Page_4.thumb.jpg.ca5cd91361840fd0bcaff289f8de5e05.jpg1820438609_rainsongs_Page_5.thumb.jpg.87a07c09d06e54517f4deca78c4eaf9a.jpg

 

 

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Thunderstorms to our west today, the line should start to fade as it approaches the state line later this afternoon.

Snap14-09.thumb.jpg.e70fb47f767740dfa0979ef90f375a5e.jpg

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Watch is being considered and this area is being watched closely

20190509_1805_khtx_BR_0.5.thumb.png.592164e0670ed6d7ee2418b04027678f.pngmcd0599-08.gif.01f979eca9c4fdc1536a50f6e4619128.gif

 

Quote

Mesoscale Discussion 0599
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1203 PM CDT Thu May 09 2019

   Areas affected...the northern and central Alabama vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 091703Z - 091800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally damaging winds will remain possible over the next
   couple of hours across the northern and central Alabama vicinity.  A
   new WW is being considered.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a continuous/arcing band of
   thunderstorms moving east-northeastward across northern and central
   Alabama at around 25 kt.  Within this fairly well-organized band,
   locally damaging winds remain possible -- particularly near
   smaller-scale bowing/rotating segments.  Over the past hour, a
   reports of some wind damage have been received from within the line.


   Though limited instability (500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) is indicated,
   and with extensive cloud cover ahead of the storms likely to impede
   additional/appreciable CAPE development, the band of storms appears
   to be well-organized enough, with just enough thermodynamic support,
   to continue posing some risk for damaging winds over the next couple
   of hours, as storms cross Alabama and eventually approach the
   Alabama/Georgia border.  A severe thunderstorm watch is being
   considered for this area.

 

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If you live in the NW corner of the state, there is a strong line of thunderstorms approaching from Alabama. Some of these are tornado warned storms, so please pay attention.

20190509_1830_khtx_BR_0.5.thumb.png.9a8f7f9e4740359441a949ed526e9191.png

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warning-09-1.png.13d4cb606f15cd1e525c70372fb055c2.png

 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
251 PM EDT Thu May 9 2019

The National Weather Service in Peachtree City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Floyd County in northwestern Georgia...
Southwestern Walker County in northwestern Georgia...
Dade County in northwestern Georgia...
Chattooga County in northwestern Georgia...

* Until 330 PM EDT.

* At 251 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Section to Lebanon to Sand Rock to near
Slackland, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Rome, Lafayette, Summerville, Trenton, Trion, Shannon, Lyerly,
Menlo, Center Post, Subligna, Linwood, Coosa, Cloudland, Cloudland
Canyon State Park, Cooper Heights, James H. Floyd State Park,
Holland, Rising Fawn, Lindale and Suttles Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread
significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately
likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of
a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant
property damage.

If you see wind damage...hail or flooding...wait until the storm has
passed...and then call the National Weather Service toll free
at 1 8 6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6 or tweet us your report at NWSATLANTA.

&&

LAT...LON 3493 8549 3462 8513 3449 8510 3420 8510
3411 8543 3486 8559 3488 8558
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 245DEG 37KT 3458 8604 3437 8580 3425 8577 3410
8577

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

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8 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

So I am confused, is North Central to north East Georgia still in the clear?

Right now, yes.

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mcd0602.gif.5091fea53aee5f5c51031ae84ed19bc2.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 0602
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0147 PM CDT Thu May 09 2019

   Areas affected...Northeast Alabama into northwest Georgia/southeast
   Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 091847Z - 092015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A fast northeast-moving convective line will continue to
   pose a wind damage risk along with the potential for a brief tornado
   from northeast Alabama into northwest Georgia/southeast Tennessee.

   DISCUSSION...A well-organized convective line continues to
   accelerate (40-45 kt) northeastward across northeast Alabama as of
   130pm CDT. It is likely now being aided by an MCV with 50+
   southwesterly winds within the lowest 1-2km AGL noted per recent
   Huntsville AL WSR-88D VWP data. Bowing segments aside, low-level
   shear vs. line orientation has been favorable for mesovortex
   evolution within the line. Primary short-term uncertainty is a
   considerable downstream weakening of overall buoyancy into northwest
   Georgia, and particularly with northward extent across southeast
   Tennessee. However, line-preceding lapse rates are relatively steep
   with temperatures in the upper 70s/near 80F. Furthermore, the
   well-organized/fast-forward motion of the line itself suggests that
   isolated wind damage will remain a possibility into southeast
   Tennessee/northwest Georgia. That said, the overall QLCS is expected
   to undergo a weakening trend over the next 1-2 hours (particularly
   on the north end of the convective line).
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Just saw the spc comments.  They keep insisting the line will be weakening in the next little bit, especially the northern part that is now entering the state

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warning-09-1-2.png.369c2c4cdfda4553ccee8469a980456b.png

 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
316 PM EDT Thu May 9 2019

The National Weather Service in Peachtree City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Haralson County in northwestern Georgia...
Southwestern Carroll County in northwestern Georgia...
Southern Floyd County in northwestern Georgia...
Polk County in northwestern Georgia...
Southwestern Bartow County in northwestern Georgia...

* Until 400 PM EDT.

* At 316 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Forney to near Sweetwater Lake to Mount Cheaha,
moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Carrollton, Cedartown, Buchanan, Bremen, Rockmart, Tallapoosa,
Bowdon, Mount Zion, Aragon, Cave Spring, Waco, Fish Creek, Etna,
Lindale, Eubank Lake, Esom Hill, Bowdon Junction, Antioch, Van Wert
and Seney.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread
significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately
likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of
a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant
property damage.

If you see wind damage...hail or flooding...wait until the storm has
passed...and then call the National Weather Service toll free
at 1 8 6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6 or tweet us your report at NWSATLANTA.

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Fade county schools pushed back their time to dismiss 30 min 

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5 minutes ago, RickyD said:

Fade county schools pushed back their time to dismiss 30 min 

Are they still predicting weakening soon?

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7 minutes ago, RickyD said:

Fade county schools pushed back their time to dismiss 30 min 

That is Dade county of course

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3 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Line is now moving into west Georgia

20190509_1933_khtx_BR_0.5.thumb.png.e2e00135c68a5e3103ece2d81d3b1092.png

What is a Mesoscale Convetive Vortex? I saw someone call this line that name and am very confused

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11 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

What is a Mesoscale Convetive Vortex? I saw someone call this line that name and am very confused

Watch this video. As the line moves east, you'll notice a swirl in that line. It will almost look like an area of low pressure that is spinning counter-clockwise. It's brief and weak. That swirl is a MCV

 

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