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NorthGeorgiaWX

2018-2019 Winter Discussion

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Who wants to talk about winter? ? Or maybe I should re-phrase the question and ask who DOESN'T want to talk about winter? This will be the topic that we will use to do that, at least through the middle of November.

Here's a look at the potential dew point anomalies for the upcoming winter. More moist is good but comes with a caveat... we need cold around to take advantage of the additional moisture. Here in the southeast, we walk a fine line between top much cold and not enough moisture, or too much moisture and not enough cold. And that is the reason that the placement of low pressure areas is critical in getting snow over the southeast.

 

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There are some common themes to many of the winter forecast that are out right now. Some of those are:

  • Weak to moderate "Modoki" el Nino
  • The "blob" of warm water off the coast of Alaska/Canada which promotes western US ridging
  • Low solar activity
  • High latitude blocking
  • Increased soil moisture

Meteorologist like to take those items and based on their current values, try to compare now with past years (analogs) to see what happened then. They then take all of those results and try to piece it all together so it makes sense. 

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Steve, If i am reading this correctly moisture wise we have the best chance of snow in December and February?  That kind of matches the prior winters of the years we had a Modiki El Nino effect....

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5 minutes ago, Sjctaylor said:

Let’s talk about winter! I want lots and lots of snow! Hahaha especially in the Commerce Area ?

? I hear you! Things are starting to shape up nicely, I'm getting excited! 

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Steve i will be 59 in March.  Lived just East of Mansfield Ohio a Year and a half( still did not have a white christmas up there) was in Cleveland tn one year..... Rest of time either in Al or Ms or Ga.   Just not seen snow on Christmas day in the south hardly anywhere

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I have you beat, (we won't say by how much... ? ) and I've only see a couple my entire life. I want to see another one even if I have to go north to do it. :classic_biggrin:

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I grew up in Connecticut and have seen many white Christmases when I was younger however we need a white Christmas this year since my sister and niece are coming up from Tampa fl. and my niece who's eighteen years old has never seen snow before...fingers crossed! ❄☃️?

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30 minutes ago, Dyan said:

I grew up in Connecticut and have seen many white Christmases when I was younger however we need a white Christmas this year since my sister and niece are coming up from Tampa fl. and my niece who's eighteen years old has never seen snow before...fingers crossed! ❄☃️?

Nice! My parents live in Sarasota and I've been down there during Christmas when it was 80+ degrees. Not my idea of Christmas weather. :classic_smile:

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7 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Nice! My parents live in Sarasota and I've been down there during Christmas when it was 80+ degrees. Not my idea of Christmas weather. 

I was young in 78 when the blizzard hit and I remember my Dad had to go out the kitchen window so he could shovel the snow away from the door so we could open it. The wind blew hard and we were snowed in all the way around. I don't like the cold but I do miss the snow storms they were magnificent while the snow was falling!

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32 minutes ago, Dyan said:

I was young in 78 when the blizzard hit and I remember my Dad had to go out the kitchen window so he could shovel the snow away from the door so we could open it. The wind blew hard and we were snowed in all the way around. I don't like the cold but I do miss the snow storms they were magnificent while the snow was falling!

That's it, I love to watch a heavy snowfall, there are few things that are as beautiful as that. Here I am in Nashville as a kid on the back of the sled. ?

 

 

Brueck33.jpg

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29 minutes ago, WILL said:

For the Winter what are you predicting for Gwinnett County?

Well... technically I don't make predictions, but if I did, it would mirror the majority of the forecast that are out so far. And that would be colder than normal with above normal precip. 

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8 hours ago, WILL said:

Do you think Metro Atlanta is due for a major snow storm?

If you mean the metro area, we had a good one last December, at least the western half of the area. Atlanta only averages a little more than 1" of snow per season, so if that is the criteria, then Atlanta is due. ?

snowfall_amounts.thumb.png.02dfe73047d574e7ef20751c5f3f143b.png

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Every so often we get a pretty good snow storm.  There was a good one in the 80s was it 1982? 1993 was the last big storm. 

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36 minutes ago, WILL said:

A good memory  I have.  I believe the one in 82 we got 10 inches of snow!

I had 10" in Dacula in 1993. I think I had about 8" in 82 when I lived out near Dobbins.

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