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2018-2019 Winter Discussion

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One of the teleconnections we really want to see during the winter, a -NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation. In the image below, the darker red would retrograde west and park itself near or over Greenland. The ridging over the US (reddish colors) would also retrograde west and and end up near the western coast. That in turn leaves a trough over the eastern US. 

There is a very good image that visually shows the -NAO configuration at this link on my NAO page: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_nao_index.php

 

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Some update information from Dr. Judah Cohen as it pertains to winter. And it's all good news. ?

His entire discussion is here: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

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One way we represented this northwestward expansion of the Siberian high in Cohen et al. 2014 was by regressing October snow cover extent anomalies on to November sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies and regressing December anomalies of vertical energy transfer from the troposphere to the stratosphere on to November SLP anomalies.  Those two different regression patterns show incredible similarity and we argued supports the physical connection between snow cover advance in October, the northwestward expansion of the Siberian high in November and more active vertical energy transfer in December.  This would then lead to a sudden stratospheric warming/weakened polar vortex most likely in January and eventually a negative AO/NAO and widespread severe winter weather across the NH.

 

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Snow cover advance continues its climb out of the basement across Eurasia and now is near decadal means.  Snow cover advance could pick up more speed as cold temperatures start spreading to the west towards Europe this week. Above normal snow cover extent this past October, favors a strengthened Siberian high, cold temperatures across northern Eurasia and a weakened polar vortex/negative AO this upcoming winter followed by cold temperatures across the continents of the NH.

 

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The rate of North American snow cover advance continues at a blistering rate and remains near decadal highs.  With continued cold air across Canada and the Northern US, North America snow cover will likely continue further.   If snow and cold establish a foothold across Canada this fall, it could support an early start to winter across the Northern US

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Getting excited about this. -NAO's, especially strong ones, have been hard to come by in recent years, and it's really been our missing link in getting cold air and keeping it here. 

 

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I have to go to Hickory N.C. for to preach a revival starting November 25th.  Can you kind of fill me in on what the models are showing right now for that time period? 

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