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2018-2019 Winter Discussion


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13 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

How everyone forgets climatology of Georgia winters and also forget most of the winter forecast! December was never going to be a big month for winter weather, as a matter of fact, most forecast had an above normal month temp wise, and so far that hasn't been the case. 

Right now the Euro Weeklies show below normal for the end of the month, a few days or so above normal during the first week of January, then severe cold from that point through mid-February. 

We only very rarely get anything good in December... most of the winter weather that happens here happens in January and February. 

 

We will see 

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Both the Euro and GFS "see" some winter precip for Friday/Saturday, but temps don't really support snow at the moment. But hey... let's roll with it. 🙂 NOT A FORECAST

I know everyone is really tired of the warm (but pretty normal) weather we've had for part of December. I do understand.  I won't talk about how this was pretty much in every forecast, because I

Have you just come here to troll or what? You keep arguing about anything actually happening, but when Steve responds with data and models, you just roll over and say you don't know what that means. U

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Steve i do believe it is coming.  I just know how hard it is to get cold and moisture here in the deep south to appear at the right timing....  So , i will play the part of the Grinch so i can be told"  I told ya so!!  "  lol.....   Lead on!!  Oh great Leader!!

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Well hopefully if the SSW can play out nearly as strong as some models suggest, we should have a real shot at some lasting cold. Then if Niño can keep the subtropical jet running full steam ahead then we stand a good chance at scoring something. Can’t forget this is winter in the Southeast, it’s never east to get. All we can ask for is a favorable pattern and then take our chances. And for now all signs point to a favorable pattern.

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3 hours ago, LoveSnow said:

I don’t think we’re gonna have a winter........ 

Lol if you’re gonna say things like this at least show some evidence behind your reasoning. Thing is in the South you can have a cold winter with no snow, and a warm winter with tons of it. Getting all emotional, and just deciding winter is canceled at the first completely normal and expected warmup is crazy.

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Bastardi this morning

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I was guilty of sending cold air in too fast last year and will not make the same mistake this year, but I do think a stepping down will evolve here and the abyss could be as deep as any we have seen since the winter of 93-94, 84-85, 77-78, and 65-66 at its core, how long and strong the worst is certainly is up for debate, but if its colder than what we have it would not surprise me, if its warmer, it would.

Tho it tarry, wait for it. I love that verse out of the Old Testament, it has great spiritual meaning but check out the link to what we are talking about:

"For still the vision awaits its appointed time; it hastens to the end—it will not lie. If it seems slow, wait for it; it will surely come"

So lets see if this "vision" we have laid out for the winter forecast actually comes, See how the weather can teach lessons bigger than whether it snows or gets cold ( or not)

Lord knows I love this stuff more than ever.

BTW I am definitely playing the Lost Christmas Eve at every chance.

 

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16 hours ago, LoveSnow said:

I don’t think we’re gonna have a winter........ 

Have you just come here to troll or what? You keep arguing about anything actually happening, but when Steve responds with data and models, you just roll over and say you don't know what that means. Unless you have some actual data other than your weather channel app on your phone and the fact that its in the upper 50's this week, lets keep the criticism constructive. This is Georgia, and warm temps don't mean winter is cancelled. As seen in this table, during the blizzard of '93, our median high was 70 for the 5 days prior, and 55 the day before the storm. 

I'm here for informative discussions based on data, models, and previous observations, not thoughts and gut hunches.

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1 hour ago, rwarren5 said:

Have you just come here to troll or what? You keep arguing about anything actually happening, but when Steve responds with data and models, you just roll over and say you don't know what that means. Unless you have some actual data other than your weather channel app on your phone and the fact that its in the upper 50's this week, lets keep the criticism constructive. This is Georgia, and warm temps don't mean winter is cancelled. As seen in this table, during the blizzard of '93, our median high was 70 for the 5 days prior, and 55 the day before the storm. 

I'm here for informative discussions based on data, models, and previous observations, not thoughts and gut hunches.

Hey don’t know if you know this but the models aren’t always right 

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3 minutes ago, LoveSnow said:

Hey don’t know if you know this but the models aren’t always right 

That's why I said what I said in my morning post. No, the models aren't always right, that's why you look at more than one model, and more than one parameter. Pattern recognition is important in determining what might happen, if you can recognize past patterns and how they were setup, you have a better idea how the current pattern might evolve. And evolve is the key word. You don't immediately go from one pattern to another, it evolves, and often the models will not pick up on a pattern change until it is already underway. 

A lot of what I share here are opinions from those that are extremely knowledgeable about the patterns we're talking about. Those opinions about the model outputs should be held in higher regard than strict model output, and that's why I share those. If you start piecing all of the knowledgeable post and comments from those people, you start to add pieces to the puzzle (bigger picture) and it all starts to make sense. 

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5 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

That's why I said what I said in my morning post. No, the models aren't always right, that's why you look at more than one model, and more than one parameter. Pattern recognition is important in determining what might happen, if you can recognize past patterns and how they were setup, you have a better idea how the current pattern might evolve. And evolve is the key word. You don't immediately go from one pattern to another, it evolves, and often the models will not pick up on a pattern change until it is already underway. 

A lot of what I share here are opinions from those that are extremely knowledgeable about the patterns we're talking about. Those opinions about the model outputs should be held in higher regard than strict model output, and that's why I share those. If you start piecing all of the knowledgeable post and comments from those people, you start to add pieces to the puzzle (bigger picture) and it all starts to make sense. 

Agree with everything you just said but calling someone a troll just because they have a different opinion than you? Not right.

 

 

 

not talking about you by the way 

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I think it's the manner in which you challenge everything that is said. There is no problem disagreeing with anything, but as in anything else, the discussion needs to have some facts to back up the opinion. 

If you have a better way to figure out what is going to happen with the weather, I'm all ears. But right now all there is are weather models that act as guidance for the experts to analyze. All I can do is share that knowledge and model output so that you can make a more informed decision on your own. 

No one claims and magical powers or crystal ball. Weather events change right up until they happen, and the best we can do is follow the trail as it presents itself. 

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1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I think it's the manner in which you challenge everything that is said. There is no problem disagreeing with anything, but as in anything else, the discussion needs to have some facts to back up the opinion. 

If you have a better way to figure out what is going to happen with the weather, I'm all ears. But right now all there is are weather models that act as guidance for the experts to analyze. All I can do is share that knowledge and model output so that you can make a more informed decision on your own. 

No one claims and magical powers or crystal ball. Weather events change right up until they happen, and the best we can do is follow the trail as it presents itself. 

I have heard from another source that the SSW doesn’t always immediately help our weather.... sometimes it helps Europe more than the US

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