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2018-2019 Winter Discussion


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Both the Euro and GFS "see" some winter precip for Friday/Saturday, but temps don't really support snow at the moment. But hey... let's roll with it. 🙂 NOT A FORECAST

I know everyone is really tired of the warm (but pretty normal) weather we've had for part of December. I do understand.  I won't talk about how this was pretty much in every forecast, because I

Have you just come here to troll or what? You keep arguing about anything actually happening, but when Steve responds with data and models, you just roll over and say you don't know what that means. U

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Just now, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Changes on the horizon... 😉

Slowly but surely.   I have a lot of traveling to do.  As You might know I am Sunday School Coordinator for our State and National Evangelist.  I have some revivals in Arkansas in Feb, Men's retreat at Gen Coffee state Park mid Jan, and District conventions,etc.... Might get interesting driving to some of these events....

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I don't want to post pictures of the model runs right now because I'm afraid some will interpret it as the gospel 5-7 days out. But there is some interesting uniformity in the major models (GFS/FV3, EURO, and Canadian) for next weekend. It could be a fun week for us "weather nerds" :classic_biggrin:

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The models are still all over the place, and the GFS is clueless, but there are other signs of the impending pattern flip. 

The overnight run of the Euro continues to bring in cold air around the 9th and by the 12th with a swath of light winter precipitation across north Georgia, and the cold remains through the rest of the model run. We are WAY too early to know any details etc.

The Euro is getting colder (and keeping it longer) on each run though. And the cold is backing in as some winter forecast alluded to, so nice to see that verification. So even though the models are all over the place, you can start to see the trends in the pattern. 

Old Man Winter in waking up... your promised winter will soon be on the way. ❄️

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Larry Cosgrove

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Yes, I have been hearing the growing chorus of catcalls claiming that winter will miss most of the U.S. through the middle of March. But as stated here before, most of the evidence from analog depictions, numerical models and climatology are singing a different tune. The prime problem that has developed has to do with the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which reached a Phase 6-7-8 position but delivered most of the energy from tropical forcing into the waters of the southern Pacific Ocean and Antarctica. You will read repeated comments that "If MJO is Phase 7-8-1, my house gets snow". That simply is not true. The convective plumes must be well-organized, linked to disturbances in the northern branch, and in a position which favors repeated cases of warm advection into AK, YT, and BC. If the thunderstorms are mostly below the Equator (the case here), Wantagh LI NY will not be all that cold, but may see lots of rain, and not snow.
 
And many (including me) were thinking that the huge stratospheric warming event (SSW) would create a favorable ridge vs. vortex alignment that would follow in the direction of the analogs and some numerical models (the GFS and GGEM series for starters). But instead of a highly blocked 500MB longwave pattern, what we got was a chaotic scramble of disturbances within a semizonal flow, often disabled by the rampaging subtropical jet stream through Mexico and Texas. More rain than anyone wanted, or needed, visited the Old South, Corn Belt, and Eastern Seaboard. Snow chances have been random at best, and the "Wall Of Cold" along or near the Canadian border only infrequently visits the Great Lakes and urban Northeast. As of now the SSW looks to be in fade mode in the 11 - 15 day period.
 
But there is the proverbial "light at the end of tunnel", and it is not the freight train called the "January Thaw". I have noticed that all three of the ensemble packages, most notably the ECMWF panels, are showing a "game changer" storm, perhaps very large and strong, that follows the energetic southern branch through the lower Great Plains into the Carolinas. At that point, both the American and European weekly and monthly predictions show broad cold deviations with a series of connecting ridges over AK, Arctic Canada, Greenland and east of Newfoundland. cAk vortex placement would most likely fall into James Bay or perhaps as far as the Great Lakes region, accounting for that very cold regime to be pressed southward in locations to the right of the Continental Divide. The start time for that sequence, tentatively, is around January 21.
 
While some skepticism about this dramatic turn of events might be warranted (computer models, as we all know, are not perfect). the synoptic meteorologist in most cases will be feeling good about the chance to escape the "Cold Canada vs. Mild U.S." doldrums that set in during the holiday period. We cannot take this pattern change for granted, but should think about what weather may transpire should all the chips (MJO, analogs, numerical models and needed good luck) fall where they are needed. As someone who loves winter extremes, I would just love to see that perfect 970MB low off of Cape Hatteras, a 1038MB surface high above the Laurentian Shield, a fast flow from Murmansk to Kansas City, and our old friend the subtropical jet stream wrapping into a closed 500MB vortex centered over Charles Town WV.
 
Now we must wait and see if my (our?) dreams come true!
 
 
Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Saturday, January 5, 2018 at 10:35 P.M. CT

 

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Joe Bastardi a little while ago. Starting to get excited yet? :classic_biggrin:

;

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Rarely have I seen Potential like this for the rest of winter. Put it this way, I have seen it looking back at set ups, but not had the tools at the time to use it. As soon as we end this government shutdown I will be able to show you some of the combinations that I can reference to back my belief. I can't show pictorially what I can not acquire and of course a picture is worth a thousand words, but I believe it's coming.

So what is on the table, to me: I think we can have a THREE WEEK Period where the following 8 sites average at least 10 below normal with above normal SEASONAL Snowfall in that 3 week period. So the 8 site test is Chicago, Dallas, Atlanta NYC, Pittsburgh Cincinnati Greensboro and DC.

So what I want to see is 3 weeks where all these together are 10 below normal and when I total their snow in the 3 weeks, its above the seasonal average for the combination of all of them.

I am not going to put a time on it, but I suspect its later this month into February, but there may be 3-5 weeks after that may actually rival that. Basically I think all the players are on the field for one of the most talked about comebacks of winter in a century, though if you remember 65-66, or more recently 14-15, that certainly would fit the bill.

Can't say if it can salvage to the letter of the law DJF temps, but given what I think is on the table, I think it has a shot. Certainly in the east its nice to sneak in the front cold coming up here, given the blow torch portrayed on Thursday for this week into early the next.

 

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From Matthew at FirstHand Weather

Keeping a close eye on the upcoming weekend for parts of the South, Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic. A Gulf Low should develop late Friday and move eastward through the weekend. At the same time, clipper-like system will dive towards the southeast from the Midwest. This should aid in precipitation and a temperature profile supportive of wintry weather for the areas outlined on the map.

This event is several days out and guidance is split so confidence is low at this point. It is possible moisture gets suppressed further south, which would decrease wintry precipitation chances for the outlined areas. Keep checking back for updates as some of the questions begin to get ironed out as we get closer to the weekend.

-Meteorologist Christopher Nunley

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I am not really looking for much in our area with this 1st system.  It is later when the cold is more locked in ( as in 2014 )....  Of course all this is just conjecture at this point.  We believe the signs all point this to happen.  Will it align?  The best minds think so.

Edited by RickyD
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I was reading a blog by Dr. Judah Cohen where he discusses the winter up through December 31. It's a lengthy post so I'll let you read it if you desire, but I wanted to share these comments from his December 31st post.
https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

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I have been arguing for at least a decade now that the winter season is shifting ahead in time so that it starts later and ends later.  The fall months are warming across the NH (with one notable exception in Siberia) and that warming extends into December.  However surprisingly the next three months, January through March are cooling across the NH mid-latitudes.  What is causing the asymmetry in early winter and late winter temperature trends? There is an observed increase poleward heat flux (the transport of heat across the latitudes towards the North Pole) in December that is likely contributing to a warming trend in December (though admittedly even in the absence of the trend we would still expect warmer December temperatures just based on an overall warming of the globe). But that increasing trend in December poleward heat transport is also resulting in more sudden stratospheric warmings and weaker stratospheric PV in January.  The frequency of severe winter weather is increased following an SSW across the NH mid-latitudes including more Arctic outbreaks and heavy snowfalls.  Therefore, temperatures are cooling for late winter starting in January and extending into March. 

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So, if you are a winter weather enthusiast, at least in my opinion the lack of winter so far is a necessary condition for cold and snow to follow.  And if you like your winters mild then if the winter turns harsher in the near future it also was the cost for the benign winter so far.  In my opinion mild winter weather followed by harsh winter weather are often two sides of the same coin.

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But I have always told myself if I could request one weather phenomenon it would be a PV split since in my mind it is the best guarantee of an extended period of winter weather especially heavy snowfall.

 

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