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2018-2019 Winter Discussion


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Both the Euro and GFS "see" some winter precip for Friday/Saturday, but temps don't really support snow at the moment. But hey... let's roll with it. 🙂 NOT A FORECAST

I know everyone is really tired of the warm (but pretty normal) weather we've had for part of December. I do understand.  I won't talk about how this was pretty much in every forecast, because I

Have you just come here to troll or what? You keep arguing about anything actually happening, but when Steve responds with data and models, you just roll over and say you don't know what that means. U

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6 minutes ago, LoveSnow said:

No I’m just laughing period 

They say it is better to laugh than to cry.  My own thoughts is OGK...   Only God knows.   Men try their best to keep up with Him and guess what He is going to do.  Winter in the South has always been mostly no snow, and a lot of hope....   I have loved it for 59 years.   Course i loved living in Crestline Ohio, where the dream came true  at winter...  but i still got left out cause i was not in the snow belt.... of NE Ohio..  🙂   Oh well

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2 minutes ago, LoveSnow said:

I’ll just go back to reading and waiting on this pattern change that we’ve been chasing and chasing and chasing since thanksgiving 

Actually-- i believe we can go back and prove that no one said it would happen till mid Jan....  Warm December was forecasted.   But i wonder do you really care if that was true or not? We are all here to make our lives better, not contribute to the death of society.  Not getting on to you but suggesting you lighten up and enjoy life and enjoy the weather and enjoy all of us

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1 hour ago, Sara said:

My temps for this weekend went up a degree on Wunderground and now the snow icon is gone.  What gives?

Weather apps change from model run to model run and are strictly computer generated. There is very little to no human involvement in those forecasts you see on your weather app. I have no idea where your location is, but it is important to keep in mind that winter weather in this area is one of the hardest areas to forecast in the country given all the variables and things having to play out just right. I have said it for a long time, weather apps in general and particularly this part of the country are useless in forecasting winter weather.  They are good for generalities and deciding whether or not you need a coat that day. 

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We had a cold pattern for November and early December. The warmup was forecasted from the very start, from basically every source. Wire to wire cold doesn’t really exist anywhere in the eastern US, and definitely not in the South, so expecting that will always leave you disappointed. Cold patterns don’t guarantee snow and warm ones don’t guarantee you won’t get it. Hence us at least tracking the possibility of a wintry event this weekend in the middle of a warm period. And someone in the Southeast will likely see snow this weekend, even if most of N GA doesn't. The climatology is what it is for a reason. Going into any season expecting to bust anomalously high on any given thing, will not work out most of the time. We have very long standing averages that say, as should be no surprise, that it doesn’t snow very often in Georgia. Even here in the mountains our yearly average is only around 6 inches. Disappointments are the norm, so try not to get too emotionally invested in it all. And cherish those times, every few years where things actually do go right for us.

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I'm not thinking I will get anything where I am this time around.  As someone else said, it just doesn't "feel right."  Last year's 8 inches of snow was an exciting pre-Christmas surprise, but highly unusual!  I'm waiting (in dread) for the next true ice storm, where freezing rain puts a layer of ice on all the trees and power lines.  That hasn't happened (in my city) since 1999, and it was ugly.  (It might have been January 2000.)  Power was out for 4 days.  I will welcome some sparkly snowflakes - but not an ice storm.  It's been a while for here, so I wonder when the next one will happen.  I'm more than happy to skip that entirely!

 

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27 minutes ago, Preston said:

Weather apps change from model run to model run and are strictly computer generated. There is very little to no human involvement in those forecasts you see on your weather app. I have no idea where your location is, but it is important to keep in mind that winter weather in this area is one of the hardest areas to forecast in the country given all the variables and things having to play out just right. I have said it for a long time, weather apps in general and particularly this part of the country are useless in forecasting winter weather.  They are good for generalities and deciding whether or not you need a coat that day. 

I really wish the NWS could get the funding to put their basic 7 day and hourly forecast products into an app format. They’re still the only forecast I look at on my phone, just in my browser. But I understand from a consumer standpoint, an app would get more people to use it as that’s how most people get their weather now. That being said, I absolutely reccomend everyone to use the NWS 7 day forecast in whatever way you can as it will be the most consistently accurate with real forecasters involved.

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11 hours ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

I really wish the NWS could get the funding to put their basic 7 day and hourly forecast products into an app format. They’re still the only forecast I look at on my phone, just in my browser. But I understand from a consumer standpoint, an app would get more people to use it as that’s how most people get their weather now. That being said, I absolutely reccomend everyone to use the NWS 7 day forecast in whatever way you can as it will be the most consistently accurate with real forecasters involved.

Agreed. On my site I use the NWS forecast, and on my phone as well. The NWS mobile page works JUST like an app and that is the ONLY forecast app I use on my phone. I have it pinned to my home page on my phone. 

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11 minutes ago, Wendy4 said:

Watching the weather this morning on it looks like our chances here in Gwinnett are diminishing or the weather people are being conservative. :classic_sad:

This first event will be marginal for many, but I also believe this is the first opportunity of many. We're just getting started. 🙂

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This is the link to the mobile version. It uses your GPS to generate the forecast. https://mobile.weather.gov/

I use a Samsung S7 and Chrome, so I just clicked on the menu icon in Chrome and said Pin to Home (or whatever it says.... 🙂 ). You know... I spent 30 years managing technology including a 600 server network, and phones still baffle me. :classic_wacko:

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What model is the most aggressive with a winter weather scenario for NEGA this weekend?  Out of the models I can see it would look to be the GFSFV3 and it doesn’t look great. I’m guessing it’s the EURO?  At least the pattern is flipping and that’s a great start!!

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9 minutes ago, Dahlonegawinter said:

What model is the most aggressive with a winter weather scenario for NEGA this weekend?  Out of the models I can see it would look to be the GFSFV3 and it doesn’t look great. I’m guessing it’s the EURO?  At least the pattern is flipping and that’s a great start!!

They have been equally aggressive once they spot something. The Euro is still doing a better job than both the GFS and v3. Ryan Maue posted something about that not long ago, and when it was posted, the GFS was REALLY out of touch. 

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