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2018-2019 Winter Discussion


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Both the Euro and GFS "see" some winter precip for Friday/Saturday, but temps don't really support snow at the moment. But hey... let's roll with it. 🙂 NOT A FORECAST

I know everyone is really tired of the warm (but pretty normal) weather we've had for part of December. I do understand.  I won't talk about how this was pretty much in every forecast, because I

Have you just come here to troll or what? You keep arguing about anything actually happening, but when Steve responds with data and models, you just roll over and say you don't know what that means. U

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Alright everybody we're sniffing potential wintry weather so I'm back! lol (who's this guy?!) Just went over the past few pages to catch up so forgive me if the point I'm about to make has already been covered. I have been consistently monitoring the models/discussion and vague forecast maps and to me, this looks IDENTICAL to one month ago's winter weather system with CAD being the only hope for us and models not gripping very well what will happen. Almost the same exact areas of NE Georgia MAYBE getting affected again under the same set up. My question is, am I wrong? And if not, what IS different with this system and are chances better/worse in comparison to last months event?

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1 hour ago, SlicNic13 said:

Alright everybody we're sniffing potential wintry weather so I'm back! lol (who's this guy?!) Just went over the past few pages to catch up so forgive me if the point I'm about to make has already been covered. I have been consistently monitoring the models/discussion and vague forecast maps and to me, this looks IDENTICAL to one month ago's winter weather system with CAD being the only hope for us and models not gripping very well what will happen. Almost the same exact areas of NE Georgia MAYBE getting affected again under the same set up. My question is, am I wrong? And if not, what IS different with this system and are chances better/worse in comparison to last months event?

And you are correct! What I'm interested in is how far off the models are going to be. Last week it was looking like a heat wave for the period coming up, but not now. Things are all over the place right now but we're starting to get a good idea where they're headed. 😉 

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11 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

And you are correct! What I'm interested in is how far off the models are going to be. Last week it was looking like a heat wave for the period coming up, but not now. Things are all over the place right now but we're starting to get a good idea where they're headed. 😉 

Maybe since last time was a miss, this time will be a direct hit! I'm certainly going to hold my optimism this time though lol

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Unfortunately, at least for the time being, I don’t think this one will be as big of an impact as the previous one. For one thing, total Qpf is going to be much less than that December system. Even here in the mountains I’m thinking maybe some initial light snow followed by a period of freezing rain/sleet and then just plain rain.  The fly in the ointment so far for me with feeling confident in this one has been the high placement in southeast Canada, as opposed to the NE US with the last one. Although, for what it’s worth the high appears to be stronger. Still time for things to change, and generally thus far the trend has been for a weaker further south system so we shall see if we can pull a rabbit out of the hat.

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1 minute ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Unfortunately, at least for the time being, I don’t think this one will be as big of an impact as the previous one. For one thing, total Qpf is going to be much less than that December system. Even here in the mountains I’m thinking maybe some initial light snow followed by a period of freezing rain/sleet and then just plain rain.  The fly in the ointment so far for me with feeling confident in this one has been the high placement in southeast Canada, as opposed to the NE US with the last one. Although, for what it’s worth the high appears to be stronger. Still time for things to change, and generally thus far the trend has been for a weaker further south system so we shall see if we can pull a rabbit out of the hat.

Yes, this was nothing last week, so trying to make it something big doesn't usually happen. I am excited about the changes that are beginning to show up though.

The 12Z Euro today moved the snow a little further north and is heavier in some places.

Snap346062223-08.thumb.jpg.369d12f873d49b3feaf957241105931f.jpg

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12 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Yes, this was nothing last week, so trying to make it something big doesn't usually happen. I am excited about the changes that are beginning to show up though.

The 12Z Euro today moved the snow a little further north and is heavier in some places.

Snap346062223-08.thumb.jpg.369d12f873d49b3feaf957241105931f.jpg

Yeah things definitely got more amped up this run. Which only served to bring more warmth from the gulf to us in Georgia. I’d say from our own selfish stand point (sorry Virginia lol) we want the low to be weaker/more strung out and further south, with a stronger and further south high. Qpf would definitely be lower but if a lot of us in N GA could get .25 to .5 inches liquid mostly frozen I’m sure we’d all be happy.

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A morning update from the Atlanta NWS office:

Quote

There are some differences between the models for Saturday into
Sunday. The GFS is further south with the low track and a bit
faster. The ECMWF also has less moisture associated with the system
on Friday night, owing to the slower eastward progression of the low
center. The QPF values for Friday night are very light with little,
if any, accumulation of precip. This is important because temps will
be cold enough for a wintry mix. Not completely ruling it out, but
any accumulations should be light. The QPF will increase on Saturday
as the low center gets closer and moves overhead, but temps should
be increasing. The ECMWF takes the low track further north, while
the GFS hugs the low closer to the FL panhandle. Neither model
erodes the wedge completely. At this time, models are keeping more
liquid precip than frozen, so no accumulation of SW are indicated at
this time. However, this can change with additional model runs.

 

 

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1 hour ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

A morning update from the Atlanta NWS office:

 

The Bread and Milk Panic Machine does not appear to be kicking into gear with this one, so far.

(Yes, I know that's not scientific, but it amuses me to no end.)  :)

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49 minutes ago, Tanith said:

The Bread and Milk Panic Machine does not appear to be kicking into gear with this one, so far.

(Yes, I know that's not scientific, but it amuses me to no end.)  🙂

LOL! No, not for this one. But I believe this is the start of our winter season. 

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12 hours ago, GaDawg said:

What happened to the fv3 GFS it is stuck at 6z....

You know, I only look at that occasionally. Since it is experimental, no guarantee it will always be working. The other day, the NWS EDD (Enhanced Data Display) quit working. It's used by everyone yet it is STILL considered experimental after years of development.

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