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2018-2019 Winter Discussion


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1 minute ago, LoveSnow said:

Better get cranking soon then 

It will be, I wouldn’t worry about that. You can see it even on that 12z GFS run, the trough of over the east is getting locked in. And, although it is hr 384 so it’s meaningless, if that exact look verified with a trough that deep and sharp I’d bet on snow for most of N GA. Cause the track would almost certainly be further south with a trough that deep, only worry would be how quickly it cuts up the coast. Again it’s GFS at 384 so it doesn’t matter, but show me that inside 7 days and I’d be giddy.

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Both the Euro and GFS "see" some winter precip for Friday/Saturday, but temps don't really support snow at the moment. But hey... let's roll with it. 🙂 NOT A FORECAST

I know everyone is really tired of the warm (but pretty normal) weather we've had for part of December. I do understand.  I won't talk about how this was pretty much in every forecast, because I

Have you just come here to troll or what? You keep arguing about anything actually happening, but when Steve responds with data and models, you just roll over and say you don't know what that means. U

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1 minute ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

It will be, I wouldn’t worry about that. You can see it even on that 12z GFS run, the trough of over the east is getting locked in. And, although it is hr 384 so it’s meaningless, if that exact look verified with a trough that deep and sharp I’d bet on snow for most of N GA. Cause the track would almost certainly be further south with a trough that deep, only worry would be how quickly it cuts up the coast. Again it’s GFS at 384 so it doesn’t matter, but show me that inside 7 days and I’d be giddy.

Here is the issue though- that’s only one run of the gfs- it could easily go away on the next run 

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7 minutes ago, LoveSnow said:

Here is the issue though- that’s only one run of the gfs- it could easily go away on the next run 

Yeah that exact storm absolutely will go away on numerous runs, and it will be brought back on just as many. Small details like that are unimportant at that sort of range. The pattern however, which is what is really important, is getting locked in even inside 200 hours. That is merely showing what the possibilities are once we transition, which is already underway.

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2 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Yeah that exact storm absolutely will go away on numerous runs, and it will be brought back on just as many. Small details like that are unimportant at that sort of range. The pattern however, which is what is really important, is getting locked in even inside 200 hours. That is merely showing what the possibilities are once we transition, which is already underway.

Fair enough I just want snow 

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This chart below shows the coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere. Notice the "drip" from the stratosphere coming up (10-13) and how we are going to get the cold air outbreak during this period. Then, notice how around the 20th, it's no longer a drip, it is a coupling of stratosphere and troposphere. It means the Arctic Oscillation goes strongly negative (-AO) and we have our polar blocking. Never any guarantees, but I would expect to see very cold temps after the 20th. That cold will work to help suppress the storm track to a favorable position for us and then our increased chances for winter weather. Today is the first step.

 

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31 minutes ago, LoveSnow said:

We gonna get this under 300 hours or nah?

Sure. Give it a few days and it’ll be under 300. Things are right on schedule from when it came apparent that the transition would be slow and not an immediate flip. Transition is underway, you should be able to walk outside and tell we are no longer in  the same warm zonal pacific dominated pattern we’ve been in for the past few weeks. Things will be turbulent as we transition, and as was just said the 19th -21st period should see the cold pattern lock in for at least a little while.

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1 hour ago, RickyD said:

Hey Steve...   Can you tell us more how  this  will effect us in the long rang forecast here in the U.S., especially in the East and Southeast

https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1082845725472550913

First of all that thing looks like a beast!! And I would expect that could help to pump up the ridge near Alaska and aid cold air transport in the east.

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I can’t see freezing rain being much of an issue this weekend with temps this marginal. Freezing rain is already a self limiting process so without temps of at least, if not below, 30 it’s normally very short lived and low impact. If wedge trends significantly stronger I’d be worried, but placement and timing of the high pressure say that isn’t likely.

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2 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

I can’t see freezing rain being much of an issue this weekend with temps this marginal. Freezing rain is already a self limiting process so without temps of at least, if not below, 30 it’s normally very short lived and low impact. If wedge trends significantly stronger I’d be worried, but placement and timing of the high pressure say that isn’t likely.

Agree. Looking more and more like a nonevent for all of GA with the exception of the mountain peaks. Still can’t waif for the upcoming pattern tho

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