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2018-2019 Winter Discussion


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29 minutes ago, Shannon said:

Agree. Looking more and more like a nonevent for all of GA with the exception of the mountain peaks. Still can’t waif for the upcoming pattern tho

No doubt! This is showing how close we already are, just a matter of a couple degrees in most places. Just a small change in the pattern (i.e. just a little more suppression) could payoff big.

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Both the Euro and GFS "see" some winter precip for Friday/Saturday, but temps don't really support snow at the moment. But hey... let's roll with it. 🙂 NOT A FORECAST

I know everyone is really tired of the warm (but pretty normal) weather we've had for part of December. I do understand.  I won't talk about how this was pretty much in every forecast, because I

Have you just come here to troll or what? You keep arguing about anything actually happening, but when Steve responds with data and models, you just roll over and say you don't know what that means. U

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1 minute ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

No doubt! This is showing how close we already are, just a matter of a couple degrees in most places. Just a small change in the pattern (i.e. just a little more suppression) could payoff big.

Yep for sure! It will happen for someone soon! 

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Noting the video Steve added earlier with the birds flocking up north I have actually noticed that today around here. Massive flocks of black birds around northern Gwinnett this afternoon feeding. Maybe a a sign from nature...

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I am starting to wonder if we just see transient shots of colder air here and there and no real pattern flip.  I was also thinking I can’t believe I haven’t seen a flurry of snow so far this fall/winter usually by now that has happened but not yet.  I know we have time but with no model consistency under 300 hours is getting old and depressing.  It honestly wouldn’t surprise me if this was the winter that never really happened.  I hope this isn’t the case however.

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I am highly encouraged by what I see with the ensembles for the teleconnections, and we're going to be seeing major swings in the indices over the next week or so. 

Keep in mind, for us to have a good winter, the high latitude blocking we need would be a negative AO and NAO (-AO and -NAO), the Pacific blocking is the EPO (we need negative) and the PNA positive. So with that being said.... here's what is seen by the ensembles.

Arctic Oscillation - We need a negative AO (-AO)

ao_neg.thumb.png.e666d054801dc17ac10c8458d8445380.png

 

gefs_ao_00-10.png.40e914aa01dc9ec2b1e4d31298245b77.png

geps_ao_00-10.thumb.png.5ec33a011249d1481e2c114be15574b9.png

 

North Atlantic Oscillation - We need negative (-NAO)

nao_neg.thumb.png.14a01aceef1e6ca793700077cc4cf7b4.png

gefs_nao_00-10.png.4697b5191aff89355bfe0712080781da.png

geps_nao_00-10.thumb.png.08f96fd56a813f69046c4055953b982f.png

 

East Pacific Oscillation - We need negative (-EPO)

epo_neg.thumb.png.b18dd70c5f883e9f6065498874dc59ab.png

gefs_epo_00-10.png.1b0818f5e7ae1ebccdcd5ccad1c71005.png

 

Pacific-North American Oscillation - We need a positive (+PNA)

Animated GIF

pna_animate_full.gif.b8fca58a3116d08d213893ac27610495.gif

gefs_pna_00-10.png.6a58f51882485161980d42b255b4b0fd.png

 

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42 minutes ago, Dahlonegawinter said:

I am starting to wonder if we just see transient shots of colder air here and there and no real pattern flip.  I was also thinking I can’t believe I haven’t seen a flurry of snow so far this fall/winter usually by now that has happened but not yet.  I know we have time but with no model consistency under 300 hours is getting old and depressing.  It honestly wouldn’t surprise me if this was the winter that never really happened.  I hope this isn’t the case however.

Need to quit watching the models until the pattern settles down, it's all chaos right now. Anything past 3-5 days is questionable. 

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I learned years ago that watching the models during pattern changes can be depressing. There is never any consistency, they are always flipping around, they show things that can't possibly happen, they don't agree with other models, much less their own ensembles, teleconnections don't jive with the operational.... it really goes on and on. 

Here's what you need to watch right now. Watch the large scale pattern, and not just the US, North America and the Northern Hemisphere.  That pattern has to move in a particular way for things to happen correctly at the surface here. It's those large scale patterns that dictate whether we get snow or not, so it makes the setup of those extremely critical.  Watch the 500 mb anomalies in particular. 

I guess after following the weather for so many years, you develop a thicker skin to the warm and no snow periods. You know they are coming, you know to expect them, so you don't let them bother you as much. Right now, the fun for me is studying the evolution of the pattern flip. I find the process to be extremely interesting for some strange reason. It's the interaction of all the puzzle pieces from around the world that make our weather here, and trying to "piece" together that puzzle is the ultimate challenge. Basically trying to make sense out of chaos. 

Right now the models are only providing clues, not solutions, and not all of them are correct, so just keep that in mind.  There are expectations about what will happen based on many years of past weather history, so the model output has to be viewed in that context. Which model best portrays what "should" be happening? Models are only tools, they are not forecast. To properly use the models, you first need to understand their limitations and their biases. Some models are better than others, and some are better than others with specific setups. Some rush things through too quickly (GFS) while others like to hang energy back (Euro). Some are better at convective systems (NAM and HRRR). There and many, many others,  are all kinds of things that a meteorologist needs to know when looking at model output. 

Here is the Euro. Notice the energy that is trailing from the trough. It's a typical bias the Euro has. That setup would argue for a deep trough in the east simply based on the setup, but also because of the expectations due to the worldwide patterns leading up to this model guidance. So knowing all of those things, it tells me to look for a fairly deep trough to be over the eastern US for that time period. 

Snap346062227.thumb.jpg.d2ad452b26e35b61725f0fecdd8cf7a6.jpg

 

So my suggestion is to NOT look at the operational model runs right now, at least if you don't want to get depressed. 😉 It's not that they are negative, they just aren't showing the type of pattern that we know should be coming up. When I start getting excited... you'll know it's time. :classic_biggrin:

 

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Here's the latest on this weekend chance for winter weather.

Quote

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...
There is some potential for a wintry mix in the higher elevations of
north GA this weekend into very early next week. A cold rain is
expected elsewhere.


Wedge has built in across much of northern GA by Friday night and
will remain in place through Saturday. The wedge should begin to
erode for most areas, except far NE GA, Saturday night as low
pressure moves out of the Lower Mississippi River valley into the
CWFA. Both the ECMWF and GFS keep the wedge in place through early
Sunday for far NE GA, and this seems reasonable. Also, the models
are now in pretty good agreement with the low track and timing. High
pressure is expected to build in across the area late Sunday into
Monday and be the dominant weather feature for the remainder of the
long term portion of the forecast.


Have made a few changes to the forecast. Model soundings show that
the airmass may be too dry for much measurable precip across
northern GA for much of Friday Night. Have decreased pops for the
first half of the night...with increasing pops towards 12Z. Pops
will still be pretty low and range from slight to low end chance.
With pops this small, little if any, QPF is anticipated. However,
temperatures profiles will be cold enough for a very light wintry
mix...mainly r/s/ip at this time.


Temps should warm up enough during the day on Saturday for all rain,
but a wintry mix is once again expected for overnight Saturday.

Temps will be on the increase for most areas outside of the far NE
wedge area....and rain is mostly expected. However, inside the
wedge, do think there is potential for a wintry mix. Model soundings
are showing some potential for r/fzra mixing with ip at times.
Sunday should be warm enough for all rain as the wedge is finally
eroded across the far NE.


For Sunday night, there is some potential for a r/sn mix in the
higher elevations as colder air behind the front settles across the
area aloft and at the surface. With the NW flow, upslope snow is
likely.


Through the weekend, some light accumulations of wintry precip are
possible at the highest elevations. However, changes in the forecast
are likely depending upon timing/track of the low and the strength
of the wedge.

 

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These type of events always make me nervous. I was trapped on I-75 for 11 hours when the big ice storm came through a few years ago. I remember they were still not expecting it to be bad, even as the snow began to fall that morning! Always worries me that the tricky wedge will act up again. 

Maybe I'm crazy and this event is nothing like that. 

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Consolidated version...

Basically, no, this is not the same. In this case the low is chasing the high to the north. Plus, in this fast flow, the high pushes out quickly and the wedge is scoured out by the warm moist flow. 

Until the zonal flow goes away, we will not have any lasting cold. Winters are never good for us when the Pacific flow crashes into the west coast. We need two things to happen:

  1. The Pacific flow needs to be cutoff. Start looking for the west coast ridge. The ridge (-EPO) will effectively shut off the flow from the Pacific and force storms to go over or under the ridge, and under the ridge is what we'd like to see. The would bring the storm track further south.
  2. We need the Greenland blocking (-NAO) to slow the flow. These two items help to get us the eastern trough. 

We're seeing evidence of this in the modeling and I showed you more evidence in the teleconnection images earlier this morning. 

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5 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Consolidated version...

Basically, no, this is not the same. In this case the low is chasing the high to the north. Plus, in this fast flow, the high pushes out quickly and the wedge is scoured out by the warm moist flow. 

Until the zonal flow goes away, we will not have any lasting cold. Winters are never good for us when the Pacific flow crashes into the west coast. We need two things to happen:

  1. The Pacific flow needs to be cutoff. Start looking for the west coast ridge. The ridge (-EPO) will effectively shut off the flow from the Pacific and force storms to go over or under the ridge, and under the ridge is what we'd like to see. The would bring the storm track further south.
  2. We need the Greenland blocking (-NAO) to slow the flow. These two items help to get us the eastern trough. 

We're seeing evidence of this in the modeling and I showed you more evidence in the teleconnection images earlier this morning. 

The 12z gfs looked like a major ice storm for South Carolina and just rain for us 

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2 minutes ago, LoveSnow said:

Shoot I’ll take that 

Dreams are fun....   when i saved the pic, i erased their id and renamed the Pic  Eye Candy...  lol   It strictly is that.  The good thing is to see some possibility showing up.  I would like to mention when the NW part of the state is "in the mix"  you know you have enough cold.  When we aren't it means 1 or two things.  Moisture is to the the southeast too far(Low too far in the gulf) or it is a CAD event...

Edited by RickyD
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7 minutes ago, RickyD said:

Dreams are fun....   when i saved the pic, i erased their id and renamed the Pic  Eye Candy...  lol   It strictly is that.  The good thing is to see some possibility showing up.  I would like to mention when the NW part of the state is "in the mix"  you know you have enough cold.  When we aren't it means 1 or two things.  Moisture is to the the southeast too far(Low too far in the gulf) or it is a CAD event...

Apparently the ensembles of the GFS look cold in the long range 

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