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NorthGeorgiaWX

2018-2019 Winter Discussion

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I really think that storm around the 20th is the first one we’ll have to keep an eye on. With all the indicies looking to be in favorable territory around that time, most importantly in my opinion the EPO. With it going negative and pumping up that Alaskan ridge it can help to shunt that storm track further south. That’s what helped deliver the huge snows to the Atlanta suburbs in December 2017. As we got closer and closer that ridge just kept getting more amplified and forced our storm wave to dive all the way south out of the Rockies. No need to pay too much attention to it on the models until maybe the middle of next week, but my gut tells me that may be our first shot.

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43 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

I really think that storm around the 20th is the first one we’ll have to keep an eye on. With all the indicies looking to be in favorable territory around that time, most importantly in my opinion the EPO. With it going negative and pumping up that Alaskan ridge it can help to shunt that storm track further south. That’s what helped deliver the huge snows to the Atlanta suburbs in December 2017. As we got closer and closer that ridge just kept getting more amplified and forced our storm wave to dive all the way south out of the Rockies. No need to pay too much attention to it on the models until maybe the middle of next week, but my gut tells me that may be our first shot.

Agreed

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35 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Look at some of the cold temps that are lurking across the border. Just a matter of time.

142730561_GFS50-STATESUSANortheastUS2-mTemperature-10.gif.1acad69874334d13161b8f7511c777be.gif

Love watching it buildup in Canada, then as soon as that western ridge pops it’ll just spill south.

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7 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Love watching it buildup in Canada, then as soon as that western ridge pops it’ll just spill south.

There are some cold temps in Canada

Snap346062237-10.thumb.jpg.7b301a0f8c787986d017ac8219475d05.jpg

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The 3KM NAM this afternoon is interesting. Shows dew points staying around 30-31 and temps around 32-34 during the majority of the event in the NE Metro Atlanta area

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11 minutes ago, Shannon said:

The 3KM NAM this afternoon is interesting. Shows dew points staying around 30-31 and temps around 32-34 during the majority of the event in the NE Metro Atlanta area

Still at the very end of its range but trend needs to be monitored for sure. That would still likely be a rain maybe mixed with sleet at times for most of N GA. However this sounding from the typical damming region would have me worried if it shows that inside 36-48 hours. Recall yesterday I said I wouldn’t worry about significant icing if the temps were borderline because freezing rain in and of itself is a warming process, but if temps in the mid 20s were to verify it would take a long time to scour that out and the damage would already be done.85F34779-D7E3-489D-9D44-0A7E51E430F1.thumb.png.1413612d04e223aa5c9f0f50e8cb4a2b.png

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I am starting to think this weekend might surprise some people in NEGA the CAD areas.  There are a couple of things I see that are different namely the location of the HP and strength.  Also this is a weaker system which could possibly allow more cold air to filter in.  Sure seemed like there was a fair amount of hype for the December threat a lot more chatter at least when compared to this weekends system.  

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14 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Still at the very end of its range but trend needs to be monitored for sure. That would still likely be a rain maybe mixed with sleet at times for most of N GA. However this sounding from the typical damming region would have me worried if it shows that inside 36-48 hours. Recall yesterday I said I wouldn’t worry about significant icing if the temps were borderline because freezing rain in and of itself is a warming process, but if temps in the mid 20s were to verify it would take a long time to scour that out and the damage would already be done.85F34779-D7E3-489D-9D44-0A7E51E430F1.thumb.png.1413612d04e223aa5c9f0f50e8cb4a2b.png

Frame before this actually has the surface even colder at 24 degrees. No other guidance has temps near that cold though so tough to put much stock in it until we’re a bit closer. Are the high resolution models sniffing out something the coarse global models aren’t or are they just out in left field? 

Edited by KingOfTheMountains
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6 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

NAM loop. All freezing rain in this loop.

116563861_NAM-WRF3-kmMetroRegionsAtlantaPrecipitationType-10.gif.80d0fba78a62762ae794b9db85643440.gif

Yeah that’s not good... Verbatim temps still in the 20’s in the Rabun/Towns/Habersham/White areas and 30-31 south and west of there. Hope this ends up being wrong.

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2 minutes ago, Dahlonegawinter said:

Interesting any other models showing a similar scenario GEM or ICON maybe??

Canadian has been pretty heavy on ice from the start but it typically has a cold bias so I’ve mostly ignored it.

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The WRF is still out of range but has similar temp profiles as the NAM. What’s amazing are these Dew points. Super dry air which will be hard to overcome but reinforces the wedge. 

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5 minutes ago, Shannon said:

The WRF is still out of range but has similar temp profiles as the NAM. What’s amazing are these Dew points. Super dry air which will be hard to overcome but reinforces the wedge. 

Yeah would definitely have a lot of virga at the start, but as you said that would only help setup an in-situ wedge through the evaporational cooling.

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6 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Yeah would definitely have a lot of virga at the start, but as you said that would only help setup an in-situ wedge through the evaporational cooling.

Yep but then would need heavier precip to come in quickly to help keep it established! It’s tricky and messy but a fine line between a cold rain and a mess in places. 

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How much of a difference could it make that the timing is now more evening into overnight Saturday night for heaviest precip, instead of during peak heating like it was modeled earlier in the week?

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Just now, KingOfTheMountains said:

How much of a difference could it make that the timing is now more evening into overnight Saturday night for heaviest precip, instead of during peak heating like it was modeled earlier in the week?

I would figure a lot. I remember originally this was coming in Friday night. Then Saturday during the day which does make a difference because of solar radiation. I imagine Saturday night with the high pressure pumping down more dry air and close temps is a plus if we want freezing rain...

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1 minute ago, Shannon said:

I would figure a lot. I remember originally this was coming in Friday night. Then Saturday during the day which does make a difference because of solar radiation. I imagine Saturday night with the high pressure pumping down more dry air and close temps is a plus if we want freezing rain...

That’s what I thought... I certainly don’t. Right here in Rabun County we haven’t had more than a 1/4 inch of ice since probably the early 2000’s. I know areas just south of here through Habersham, Hall, and Banks counties got hit hard a few years back but here it was just cold enough for all sleet.

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1 minute ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

That’s what I thought... I certainly don’t. Right here in Rabun County we haven’t had more than a 1/4 inch of ice since probably the early 2000’s. I know areas just south of here through Habersham, Hall, and Banks counties got hit hard a few years back but here it was just cold enough for all sleet.

Very true. I am in Gwinnett and in 2014 I believe we had a very nice surprise ice storm one evening. Trees snapping and no power. 

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The 18z GFS shows the potential for the upcoming pattern. A MASSIVE 1052 High comes down out of Canada with a low pressure sliding underneath. That’s what we need to get it a good one here 

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