Jump to content
  • Forum Image
NorthGeorgiaWX

2018-2019 Winter Discussion

Recommended Posts

22 minutes ago, Shannon said:

The 18z GFS shows the potential for the upcoming pattern. A MASSIVE 1052 High comes down out of Canada with a low pressure sliding underneath. That’s what we need to get it a good one here 

Need that to relax a little bit. Too much of a good thing. Notice that low pressure near the end being centered a few hundred miles into the gulf. Would struggle to get precip north of I-20 in that kind of look. We need a minor pattern adjustment more than we need an arctic plunge. Means nothing right now though, way out in fantasy land.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Need that to relax a little bit. Too much of a good thing. Notice that low pressure near the end being centered a few hundred miles into the gulf. Would struggle to get precip north of I-20 in that kind of look. We need a minor pattern adjustment more than we need an arctic plunge. Means nothing right now though, way out in fantasy land.

Oh I know. We usually find that NW trend though! It would truly suck to be in suppression city. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Shannon said:

Oh I know. We usually find that NW trend though! It would truly suck to be in suppression city. 

It did last year. Saw the big cold coming on the models in early January and got excited only to get to watch it snow at the beach twice lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

What site are you using?

 

Pivotal weather freezing rain map. Reluctant to post haha 

Edited by Shannon

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

However the 12KM NAM and the 3KM are drastically different. For example the temperatures are 10 degrees apart. Probably more realistic coming from the 3KM with the warmer temps 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Yea, I see the 12km and it's nasty. The 3 km on Weatherbell and WeatherModels aren't that far out yet

nam_ptype_slp_atl_16-10.thumb.png.7a465518bec3de4e5a7a085e8f651460.png

nam_ptype_slp_atl_17-10.thumb.png.e7e049ee8b3ffc9e1a607b472930f12a.png

nam_ptype_slp_atl_18-10.thumb.png.d57660cfac35ac05958a38ad96bbe278.png

nam_ptype_slp_atl_19-10.thumb.png.d65498c361db50c14369ac6b9538edb6.png

nam_ptype_slp_atl_20-10.thumb.png.8426d0b4a9edc2b18859d6399951c942.png

 

The 3KM is nothing like this. Way warmer and less precip I believe.  Interesting nevertheless 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From what I can tell the 3km actually puts a slightly bigger area below 32 this run but the heaviest precip moved back another hour or two. Verbatim is showing 6-10 hours of freezing rain in the far NE corner depending on how much is virga. Temp at heart of heaviest precip for Clayton is 27 with a slow crawl back above freezing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But the 3km is very very moisture starved compared to the 12km. Both actually got a bit colder this run but through 60hrs the 3km is struggling to get .25 inch qpf in most places, while the 12km has widespread .75+. Ice accumulation map on the 12 km is startling to say the least. Maybe the 3km is spotting the system struggling with the antecedent dry air?

5 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

From what I can tell the 3km actually puts a slightly bigger area below 32 this run but the heaviest precip moved back another hour or two. Verbatim is showing 6-10 hours of freezing rain in the far NE corner depending on how much is virga. Temp at heart of heaviest precip for Clayton is 27 with a slow crawl back above freezing.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The NAM could be right, but the GFS and Euro say no way. Maybe the higher elevations and far NE corner will briefly see something, but I wouldn't be holding my breath. The NWS believes that many may see sleet, even if only briefly.

Quote

The other concern is that the precip could start out of mid level
cloud and a mix of rain and sleet will be possible. Confidence is
low for exactly where and how long any sleet will last but significant
accumulations of sleet are Not expected at this time. While sleet could
mix with rain over the ATL metro area at onset, it is Not expected
to last long if at all. The best chances for a rain/sleet mix look to
favor the higher elevations of the mountains for the afternoon.

I was looking at the Euro ensembles a few minutes ago and the blocking is in full force beginning day 12 (-EPO and -NAO), and by day 15 it's showing a deep trough over the eastern US. 

eps_z500a_exnamer_49-11.thumb.png.83010ebf08988925d65fcdbf8dc1c789.png

eps_z500a_exnamer_61-11.thumb.png.77d9a11bb8b707d5bf030403cc8c7322.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still too much low pressure over the pole but if we can get blocking on either coast, the cold will come and the lows will track where they are favorable for us.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've just finished look at the longer range and I have to admit, I'm sitting here with a smile on my face. You know I always say that when I get excited, it's time for you to get excited... I'm getting excited. 😉

I'm seeing things in the longer range that tells me if you like winter weather, your ship has arrived. ❄️ Once the models latch on to what's going on, I think we'll see a wave of systems coming through. 

Now... I'll show you this but this is WAY out so right now it's just a fantasy. Does anyone remember January 28, 2014? Does that date ring a bell? If not, does SnowJam 2 ring a bell? http://www.daculaweather.com/4_nws_2014_winter_storm_summary.php

This is almost exactly the same date. 

NOT A FORECAST

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_49-01.thumb.png.957eeed9c4dab40e6ce620a9b78382a2.png

 

Just a few days earlier, we see this:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44-11.thumb.png.5913b937960355e26c4c818cd710a431.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Who's Online   0 Members, 0 Anonymous, 9 Guests (See full list)

    There are no registered users currently online



×
×
  • Create New...