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NorthGeorgiaWX

2018-2019 Winter Discussion

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5 minutes ago, Dahlonegawinter said:

Hey Steve is this upcoming weekend system worthy of its on page at this point or not🤔?

At the moment, I would say no. I've been holding off to see what was going to happen, but we'll see how the next run or two goes and decide then.

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3 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

This is NOT the track you want for winter weather. We want to see a track along the 30º latitude line.

lowtrack_ensembles-11.thumb.gif.7f165b83edaf3981adba1c89db208dec.gif

No doubt but it’s a weakening low as it progresses east really not mapped as a low pressure system by the time it gets into our area  so doesn’t that matter what outcome this might have on NEGA 

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Could it be the cold is deeper than forecasted and will be harder to root out?   It was 19 in NE al.  this morning

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8 minutes ago, RickyD said:

Could it be the cold is deeper than forecasted and will be harder to root out?   It was 19 in NE al.  this morning

I saw this also on AmericanWX but I looked at temps in the area and I am thinking that was wind chill temp not actual temp.  I could be wrong.

 

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4 minutes ago, GaDawg said:

I saw this also on AmericanWX but I looked at temps in the area and I am thinking that was wind chill temp not actual temp.  I could be wrong.

That is me on AMWX

James Spann reported it

Edited by RickyD
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I looked at the NWS site for that area.  So he must have information from another source.  What I see is 33 Temp 19 dew point and 27 windchill.  Either way its colder than it has been in awhile.

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3 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I've just finished look at the longer range and I have to admit, I'm sitting here with a smile on my face. You know I always say that when I get excited, it's time for you to get excited... I'm getting excited. 😉

I'm seeing things in the longer range that tells me if you like winter weather, your ship has arrived. ❄️ Once the models latch on to what's going on, I think we'll see a wave of systems coming through. 

Now... I'll show you this but this is WAY out so right now it's just a fantasy. Does anyone remember January 28, 2014? Does that date ring a bell? If not, does SnowJam 2 ring a bell? http://www.daculaweather.com/4_nws_2014_winter_storm_summary.php

This is almost exactly the same date. 

NOT A FORECAST

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_49-01.thumb.png.957eeed9c4dab40e6ce620a9b78382a2.png

 

Just a few days earlier, we see this:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44-11.thumb.png.5913b937960355e26c4c818cd710a431.png

I'm excited because you are excited! 

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Just tough to give any credence to the NAM solution when it’s so different than many others, and from what the forecast is. That being said, ice in the amounts it’s talking about is hard to let your guard down on.

Edited by KingOfTheMountains

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That look at the end of the 6z GFS was the best one we’ve seen modeled this winter. Outside of that the insistence of the north storm track has been maddening lol. Just gotta have faith in suppression from the pattern.

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I know I keep mentioning the WRF modelbut it’s hard to ignore and I know the NWS uses it and it’s reliable. It shows decent precip falling into dew points into the mid 20’s. Concerning I think. 

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Mother of god anybody saw the latest FV3?! It's pure model porn lol. So nice I had to save it for the archives. If only we could see such a system.

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_fh318-348.gif

Edited by Athens
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2 minutes ago, Athens said:

Mother of god anybody seen the latest FV3? It's pure model porn lol. So nice I had to save it for the archives. If only we could see such a system.

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_fh318-348.gif

Just looked at that one myself and I’m all giddy! Gimme THAT!!!!!❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

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