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2018-2019 Winter Discussion


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Both the Euro and GFS "see" some winter precip for Friday/Saturday, but temps don't really support snow at the moment. But hey... let's roll with it. 🙂 NOT A FORECAST

I know everyone is really tired of the warm (but pretty normal) weather we've had for part of December. I do understand.  I won't talk about how this was pretty much in every forecast, because I

Have you just come here to troll or what? You keep arguing about anything actually happening, but when Steve responds with data and models, you just roll over and say you don't know what that means. U

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Here's a look at a cross-section of the stratosphere/troposphere coupling on January 24th. Notice the "tail" of the stratosphere bleeding into the troposphere. These are known to create cyclogenesis at the surface. Point "A" is well up in Canada while point "B" is south of Birmingham,

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The advection of cold - high PV upper tropospheric air is favorable for the initiation of surface cyclogenesis (Bosart and Lin 1984), implying the existence of a tropopause folding and strato- spheric intrusion upstream of the developing surface cyclone (Uccellini 1986)

79363966_gfs_2019011112_fh300_xsection_51.48N85.57W_33.23N86.05W_Potential-Vorticity.thumb.png.2d2c3ebf44027ac780876b4ab2078b33.png

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25 minutes ago, Athens said:

Mother of god anybody saw the latest FV3?! It's pure model porn lol. So nice I had to save it for the archives. If only we could see such a system.

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_fh318-348.gif

Whoo, one can hope right?!? Been a long time even up here since we’ve seen a storm start snow and stay snow all the way to the end. Probably all the way back to the 2012-2013 time frame. Lately we always seem to get mixing issues as the low passes to the South robbing us of what would’ve been some impressive snows.

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That FV3 look reminds me of the January 2011 storm where the arctic air just crashed on the backside of the storm. I still remember it well, had around a foot of snow on the ground and didn’t get out of the 20’s for a few days after, nights were near 0. Took weeks to melt and kids missed 2 straight weeks of school from one snow lol.

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24 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Whoo, one can hope right?!? Been a long time even up here since we’ve seen a storm start snow and stay snow all the way to the end. Probably all the way back to the 2012-2013 time frame. Lately we always seem to get mixing issues as the low passes to the South robbing us of what would’ve been some impressive snows.

yeah i saw that this morning. we all know its too far out, but how can you NOT look at something like that.  if the fv3 sniffed that out like it did the early December storm, man would that be crazy.   Of course this is at 2 weeks, so I doubt thats ever been done, so I'm just looking at it as entertainment. 

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Union-Towns-Lumpkin-White-
Including the cities of Dahlonega and Cleveland
252 PM EST Fri Jan 11 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM
EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Light freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations
  from a trace up to one tenth of an inch possible, mainly above
  2000 feet.

* WHERE...Higher elevations (above 2000 feet) across Union,
  Towns, Lumpkin and White Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Minor ice accumulations are most likely on
  elevated objects like trees, overpasses, and bridges. Plan on
  some slippery road conditions, mainly on bridges and overpasses.

 

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I'll throw this out there...

I use a piece of software that monitors the EMWIN (Emergency Managers Weather Information Network) and that is the software that sends the automated NWS messages to Facebook and Twitter, as well as to an archive file(s), and I also receive these in my Gmail inbox. I have several people that are getting AFD's and HWO's as well as a few other types of messages. I receive MANY types of messages and there are many other types that are issued as well. 

Here's a little video showing some of the messages coming through on a slow day (today)

And some I'm deleting out of my inbox.

Snap346062241.thumb.jpg.0aff9a723558010e4f182872e68c32d2.jpg

 

So... if anyone would like to receive emails for (as an example) winter weather messages,  let me know. I can get your email address from here and set you up. 

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20 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I'll throw this out there...

I use a piece of software that monitors the EMWIN (Emergency Managers Weather Information Network) and that is the software that sends the automated NWS messages to Facebook and Twitter, as well as to an archive file(s), and I also receive these in my Gmail inbox. I have several people that are getting AFD's and HWO's as well as a few other types of messages. I receive MANY types of messages and there are many other types that are issued as well. 

Here's a little video showing some of the messages coming through on a slow day (today)

 

And some I'm deleting out of my inbox.

Snap346062241.thumb.jpg.0aff9a723558010e4f182872e68c32d2.jpg

 

So... if anyone would like to receive emails for (as an example) winter weather messages,  let me know. I can get your email address from here and set you up. 

I would please edgew@rocketmail.com

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1 hour ago, LoveSnow said:

All these people screaming cold is coming yet I got near 60 degrees later next week in my area

This being your constant response to people showing the upcoming pattern is getting a bit old lol. Since at least the beginning of this week everyone has said that once the transition started(it has) we would be turbulent for a while. As in temps would be up and down til around the 19th-20th when the transition completes. 

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7 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

This being your constant response to people showing the upcoming pattern is getting a bit old lol. Since at least the beginning of this week everyone has said that once the transition started(it has) we would be turbulent for a while. As in temps would be up and down til around the 19th-20th when the transition completes. 

👌

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1 hour ago, Wedge said:

Yes the winter weather msgs and the helen/cleveland area.

OK, setup. Let me know when you get the first one. These winter messages cover the entire NWS Atlanta forecast area. If you get tired of them, let me know, I can take you off. 🙂 Enjoy! And... these messages are sent within a minute of being issued, so you'll be the first to know! 🙂

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