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2018-2019 Winter Discussion


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Both the Euro and GFS "see" some winter precip for Friday/Saturday, but temps don't really support snow at the moment. But hey... let's roll with it. 🙂 NOT A FORECAST

I know everyone is really tired of the warm (but pretty normal) weather we've had for part of December. I do understand.  I won't talk about how this was pretty much in every forecast, because I

Have you just come here to troll or what? You keep arguing about anything actually happening, but when Steve responds with data and models, you just roll over and say you don't know what that means. U

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13 minutes ago, Athens said:

33°F and cold rain so not warm enough 😥. I'll rather have nothing. My mud was just starting to get dry. 

I agree. Forecasted low in SE Lumpkin is 33, I’d rather just have cold weather than rain sitting right about freezing. 

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2 hours ago, LoveSnow said:

Let’s get it under 100 hours and then we can talk 

We get it, you are skeptical on the pattern change. However if you are going to say let it get under 100 hours and then we will talk, then why come on here when it is outside of 100 hours and bash what is being said with VERY elementary statements? It makes a little more sense because you live south of Atlanta and even when colder weather sets in, it may not have near as an effect on you in your location than it does people further to the north (especially in the mountains). It can be an emotional thing if you love winter weather in Georgia, particularly in your location, even when a lot of North GA gets snow in events, you get left out there a decent amount of the time. So I can understand you skepticism but if you can't back up your skepticism with facts, model guidance, or legitimate questions than why bother? But main point, we get it, you are skeptical, that is your opinion, no need to beat a dead horse. 

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17 minutes ago, Preston said:

We get it, you are skeptical on the pattern change. However if you are going to say let it get under 100 hours and then we will talk, then why come on here when it is outside of 100 hours and bash what is being said with VERY elementary statements? It makes a little more sense because you live south of Atlanta and even when colder weather sets in, it may not have near as an effect on you in your location than it does people further to the north (especially in the mountains). It can be an emotional thing if you love winter weather in Georgia, particularly in your location, even when a lot of North GA gets snow in events, you get left out there a decent amount of the time. So I can understand you skepticism but if you can't back up your skepticism with facts, model guidance, or legitimate questions than why bother? But main point, we get it, you are skeptical, that is your opinion, no need to beat a dead horse. 

Again like I told King/NorthGeorgiaWX I do get snow just like the mountains (maybe not as much) but saying things like it doesn’t affect me that much is a false statement.  

 

 

Also i got as much right to be on this site as you and all these other people do.

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3 minutes ago, LoveSnow said:

Again like I told King/NorthGeorgiaWX I do get snow just like the mountains (maybe not as much) but saying things like it doesn’t affect me that much is a false statement. 

I’m going to take some of the advice I gave you and back up what I say with facts. No, you don’t get snow like the mountains. Stockbridge averages around 2” per year, I would find a CoOp near you and link it for you so that you could see the data for yourself but the Gov’t shutdown has made that data unavailable. You can do a google search and look at multiple sources to see that for yourself even though they are not as reputable as NWS CoOp data. We will take my location in the mountains for a comparison (Sky Valley), we average roughly 13” of snow per year at my location at 3,400’. The elevation makes a big difference than even the surrounding valleys. There are also CoOps around such as Germany Valley about 6 miles south of me at 2,800’ of elevation that average roughly the same. Black Rock Mountain State Park keeps meticulous records and was a CoOp for the NWS a number of years and average about the same. Do you get a sizable snow occasionally? Yes! But that only furthers my point because with an average of roughly 2” that would mean in reality that you also go winters without seeing snow on a somewhat regular basis too. I wish you the best of luck this winter because judging by your screen name you would love to see some snow and I hope you do. But if you are going to make broad blanket statements, have facts to back up what you are saying. 

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2 minutes ago, Preston said:

I’m going to take some of the advice I gave you and back up what I say with facts. No, you don’t get snow like the mountains. Stockbridge averages around 2” per year, I would find a CoOp near you and link it for you so that you could see the data for yourself but the Gov’t shutdown has made that data unavailable. You can do a google search and look at multiple sources to see that for yourself even though they are not as reputable as NWS CoOp data. We will take my location in the mountains for a comparison (Sky Valley), we average roughly 13” of snow per year at my location at 3,400’. The elevation makes a big difference than even the surrounding valleys. There are also CoOps around such as Germany Valley about 6 miles south of me at 2,800’ of elevation that average roughly the same. Black Rock Mountain State Park keeps meticulous records and was a CoOp for the NWS a number of years and average about the same. Do you get a sizable snow occasionally? Yes! But that only furthers my point because with an average of roughly 2” that would mean in reality that you also go winters without seeing snow on a somewhat regular basis too. I wish you the best of luck this winter because judging by your screen name you would love to see some snow and I hope you do. But if you are going to make broad blanket statements, have facts to back up what you are saying. 

👌........ aside from who gets more snow than who which really doesn’t matter honestly why are you so bothered that I don’t buy the pattern change?

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Just now, LoveSnow said:

👌........ aside from who gets more snow than who which really doesn’t matter honestly why are you so bothered that I don’t buy the pattern change?

It’s not that I’m bothered by it. You are free to your opinion, but go read any Atlanta news station’s posts about snow/winter weather and it is filled with dozens of comments of “I want snow”, “will never happen”, “I’ll order a foot”, a flash back to a missed forecast for a specific location, etc. with no real academic/scientific basis. Many members on here, love the breath of fresh air this forum provides with members who can have intelligent conversations back and forth with one another discussing models, other forecasters opinions, data, facts, etc. I’m not saying you’re not capable of that or trying to belittle you because you have made good points before that I have read, but when you constantly post the same skepticism over and over again without any real merit behind it resembles more of what you see on social media sites from people who have no clue about the weather (not saying you don’t have a clue, just how it comes across at times based on continued posts). 

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39 minutes ago, Preston said:

It’s not that I’m bothered by it. You are free to your opinion, but go read any Atlanta news station’s posts about snow/winter weather and it is filled with dozens of comments of “I want snow”, “will never happen”, “I’ll order a foot”, a flash back to a missed forecast for a specific location, etc. with no real academic/scientific basis. Many members on here, love the breath of fresh air this forum provides with members who can have intelligent conversations back and forth with one another discussing models, other forecasters opinions, data, facts, etc. I’m not saying you’re not capable of that or trying to belittle you because you have made good points before that I have read, but when you constantly post the same skepticism over and over again without any real merit behind it resembles more of what you see on social media sites from people who have no clue about the weather (not saying you don’t have a clue, just how it comes across at times based on continued posts). 

Fair enough..... I’ll just not comment much 

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1 hour ago, LoveSnow said:

Fair enough..... I’ll just not comment much 

I’ll chime in here. We’re not asking you not to be a part of this community and not post. It’s just from some of our standpoints, when we’re posting about things that some of us have spent a lot of our lives learning and training to be able to do this, it is frustrating to just be met with unreasoned skepticism.

There are plenty of things to be skeptical about in the long range, believe me I’ve posted about them, and the snow lover in me worries about them. But one of those things is not the pattern flip, it is happening. Like I’ve said that could easily amount to nothing more than some colder temperatures for all of us, but that remains to be seen. But there is no evidentiary reason at all not to buy the pattern flip. Yes you will have some warm temperatures next week but that is before the flip anyway. You will likely see the occasional warm day even after the flip. You live south of Atlanta and your normal high is probably in the mid 50’s this time of year anyway.

No one is asking you to be less engaged. The more people that are engaged in weather and science the better in my opinion, especially if it can help people get a grasp on just how hard this stuff is to predict. I think we’re just asking for a bit less bashing of the stuff we post, even if you don’t mean it to come off that way, that is how it’s being received. It’s just the tone in which you respond sometimes. By all means, please voice your questions and concerns with the long range forecast, you may spot something I don’t. I work for the federal government so I’ve got all the time in the world to answer anything right now lol. But please don’t become less involved in the forum on our part. 

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4 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

I’ll chime in here. We’re not asking you not to be a part of this community and not post. It’s just from some of our standpoints, when we’re posting about things that some of us have spent a lot of our lives learning and training to be able to do this, it is frustrating to just be met with unreasoned skepticism.

There are plenty of things to be skeptical about in the long range, believe me I’ve posted about them, and the snow lover in me worries about them. But one of those things is not the pattern flip, it is happening. Like I’ve said that could easily amount to nothing more than some colder temperatures for all of us, but that remains to be seen. But there is no evidentiary reason at all not to buy the pattern flip. Yes you will have some warm temperatures next week but that is before the flip anyway. You will likely see the occasional warm day even after the flip. You live south of Atlanta and your normal high is probably in the mid 50’s this time of year anyway.

No one is asking you to be less engaged. The more people that are engaged in weather and science the better in my opinion, especially if it can help people get a grasp on just how hard this stuff is to predict. I think we’re just asking for a bit less bashing of the stuff we post, even if you don’t mean it to come off that way, that is how it’s being received. It’s just the tone in which you respond sometimes. By all means, please voice your questions and concerns with the long range forecast, you may spot something I don’t. I work for the federal government so I’ve got all the time in the world to answer anything right now lol. But please don’t become less involved in the forum on our part. 

I don’t appreciate my thoughts/statements being called elementary..... so therefore this will be my last comment for awhile 

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3 hours ago, LoveSnow said:

No you are fine. Sorry I didn’t mean to make it like you said that.

Also don’t confuse me for an admin on here. This is not my forum, I was simply calling something like I see it. Sorry if that offended you, that was not my intention. 

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6 minutes ago, TheSimpleMan said:

Novice question: At my location my current temp is 37, with a dewpoint of 20. From watching you guys talk, 20 seems fairly low. Does that set us up for a good bit of evaporative cooling when the rain moves in?

Windy and dreary looking in Jasper!

Yes, I would think that would get you to right around the freezing mark maybe just above it. Briefly of course, as temps will go up with warm flow as main event moves in. Of course timing of the better precip coverage matters too, cause those numbers can change between now and then.

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Definitely not getting much of a push from the wedge here in central Rabun County though. Not that we normally do anyway, CAD’s tend to bend around us at the bottom of the mountain chain. Dewpoints are rising but the temp isn’t really dropping. Have to think most of the county outside of elevation won’t see anything freezing, without any reinforcement of the dry air.

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In this cross-section image (looking north, west is to the left, east to right), you can see the surface winds blowing from right to left (east to west) while higher up, the warm nose with increased humidity is moving west to east (or left to right). At the same time, the thickness of the wedge decreases from left to right, an indication it's being scoured out by the warm air and rain. Also, this is a great illustration showing just how thin the wedge layer is. 

95263515_gfs_2019011112_fh12_xsection_34.38N86.28W_34.35N82.38W_RH-and-Omega-12.thumb.png.5d288e90a66c311a370c02c759ca94e5.png

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