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2018-2019 Winter Discussion

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13 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Well for now at least the answer appears to be 15 minutes lol 😂. Just above 32 now, sure higher elevations are getting a nice glaze.

LOL!!! That was a quick winter storm. :classic_laugh:

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18 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Well for now at least the answer appears to be 15 minutes lol 😂. Just above 32 now, sure higher elevations are getting a nice glaze.

We actually warmed up to 36 briefly in Sky Valley and have since dropped back down to 34. It’s been a weird evening temperature wise, definitely a lot of factors involved with the shallow layer of cold air. 

Edited by Preston
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I tried to go back up to Hogpen around 4:30, but they were closing it due to ice as I was headed up the mountain. My Jeep read 32 before I turned around, willing to bet it was close to 30 at the top. 

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25 minutes ago, rwarren5 said:

I tried to go back up to Hogpen around 4:30, but they were closing it due to ice as I was headed up the mountain. My Jeep read 32 before I turned around, willing to bet it was close to 30 at the top. 

Yeah just read a report from WSB a while ago that GDOT was closing the hwy there due to ice accumulation. Higher elevations probably getting iced up good this evening.

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It's still pretty chilly here, been sitting at 34°F (with rain) the past couple of hours. Must be a cold pocket. 

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Larry Cosgrove

Quote
For a while, it was kind of irritating to hear and read that just because December was mostly mild, there would be no winter in the lower 48 states. But I started to chuckle when I saw cold intrusions having higher impacts across the Midwest and Northeast. This despite the vaunted ECMWF model, which placed all kinds of unprecedented warmth through nearly all of North America. The GFS, and especially the GGEM series correctly forecast both the cold changes and the small snow event along the Interstate 70 corridor in prior runs, this after the European scheme discarded the system. Now we are faced with a "what next" page in the January and February outlook. And for the most part, winter weather enthusiasts will be in "joy" mode.
 
Consider that the El Nino is weakening, and likely will be in the weak character until the fade-out of the ENSO pulse occurs in late spring. See also the vast snowpack across the northern half of Eurasia and North America, with the snow edge line down to parts of 40 N Latitude in the U.S. The numerical model ensemble packages are quite similar to the analog forecasts, in effect saving January for inclusion into the cold column (after a warm start) and pointing toward a continued amplified trend through most of February as well (at least as seen by the CFS and ECMWF weeklies).
 
I suspect that the main issue that many will be watching is the storm track and interaction with a displaced cAk vortex, which looks to drop down from Hudson Bay into ON and QC in the 11 - 15 and 16 - 20 day time frame. Not only does this motion encourage a mild West vs. cold Central and East temperature outlay, but also will encourage at least two more large and intense disturbances to move from CO and NM through TX and the Deep South, then up and just off of the East Coast! If this is indeed the case, whatever snow and ice that falls from the Great Lakes into the Atlantic Coastal Plain this weekend will be replenished, perhaps deeply so. And remember folks...snow and ice are a natural refrigeration mechanism for cAk air masses, and help to suppress chances for rapid warming. Even with an ascending sun angle.
 
Smile, and be happy!

 

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Toto, we are not in Dunwoody today :-)  I was hoping to get a better view of the surrounding area, but it has been foggy all day.  We started with snow yesterday, but ended up getting sleet and freezing rain last night.  We have about 3 inches of frozen precipitation on the ground with a hard-icy coating on top.  We are getting some more snow showers this evening.  This is in SW Roanoke county at about 2500 feet next to the Blue Ridge Parkway.  Now for some snow when I get back to Atlanta :-) 

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22 minutes ago, warnerharmer said:

Toto, we are not in Dunwoody today 🙂 I was hoping to get a better view of the surrounding area, but it has been foggy all day.  We started with snow yesterday, but ended up getting sleet and freezing rain last night.  We have about 3 inches of frozen precipitation on the ground with a hard-icy coating on top.  We are getting some more snow showers this evening.  This is in SW Roanoke county at about 2500 feet next to the Blue Ridge Parkway.  Now for some snow when I get back to Atlanta 🙂

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Very awesome! Congratulations! I envy anyone getting snow right now! Thanks for sharing these pictures! :classic_biggrin:

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You know it's time to start getting excited about the cold when Mr. James Spann starts mentioning it on FB :classic_biggrin::

Off of his FB, about 25 min ago:

"MAJOR COLD SNAP A WEEK AWAY: Confidence continues to grow in the idea of the coldest air so far this season invading the Deep South in one week. Temperatures will likely climb into the 60s Thursday, Friday, and possibly Saturday with occasional showers. An Arctic front moves through Saturday night, and on Sunday some North Alabama communities could say below freezing all day, with lows in the teens by Monday morning.

*For now we are not expecting severe storms with the frontal passage.
*As the colder air rushes into the state Sunday, snow flurries are possible, but for now it doesn't look like there will be significant impact.
*Temperatures will likely remain below average for most of the following week (January 21-25).

This "Arctic blast" is one week away, and confidence in the specific forecast will be much higher as we get closer to the weekend. FYI, the coldest temperature measured at Birmingham so far this season is 23, on November 28."

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And from the boys and girls over in Peachtree:

000
FXUS62 KFFC 132323 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
620 PM EST Sun Jan 13 2019

.SHORT TERM /Today through Monday Night/...
A weak surface boundary is working its way into the region and as it
does, winds will gradually all switch to out of the west and help
mix out the low level moisture enough to erode the fog and very low
clouds.  Aloft the region is under a slight northwest flow in the
wake of the exiting upper level trof.  There are still some weak
impulses moving through the flow which combined with plenty of low
level moisture in place will result in clouds only slowly eroding
through the short term.  Model soundings overnight suggest a
lowering of the clouds again by early Monday and there could be some
patchy fog overnight...however winds are expected to be up enough to
keep it more on the patchy side.

Temperatures were scaled back a bit today as a result of the low
clouds and fog hanging in a tad longer. But, temps are forecast to
be near normal on Monday as a weak high pressure system finally
works in and clears things out for the rest of the week

KS

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
Through Wed night, high pressure will gradually progress east but
remain in control of the local weather pattern. Dry conditions with
a moderating trend expected during this time period with temps
recovery to mid 50s north and around 60 south for Wed afternoon.

Zonal flow aloft will allow for rapid progression of next system Thu
into Thu night. This one looks to be all liquid with no significant
cold air intrusions at this point. Going likely pops for now as
there has been some inconsistencies from run to run among the models.

Next significant system will be for the weekend with models going
back and forth as to how much post frontal precip will be available
as much colder air rushes in. Have confined a rain/snow mix to the
higher elevations for now but will need to monitor for potential for
this to spread further south on the west side of the state in
subsequent model runs. Remainder of the extended already in place
looked good and only limited changes planned.

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I tried to ask this question earlier, but now going back, I can't find it.  So I may not have hit the submit button.  Please excuse me if I'm duplicating my own post!

I was wondering about The Blizzard of '93.  I moved here in the summer of that year, and people kept telling me about how incredible it was.  I think it was in March, maybe?  I'm wondering what kind of a winter set up that had - and are we heading into anything that might be similar?

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i have a question, as I have been looking at these models daily that are pretty much worthless, but I keep noticing when a cold front goes through that might be dry for us, once it gets out over the ocean, looks like it picks up moisture and i would guess its called ocean effect snow.   So, if there was an island several hundred miles due East off say  North Carolina or Virginia, how much snow do you think you'd be getting maybe compared to the mountains, in a normal year.  i would think it would balance out because when the mainland gets snow due to a low, its usually pulling up warm air on the right side and it just rains in the ocean.  But when its just a dry cold air mass over the mainland and they are not getting snow, what is happening way out in the ocean.   I think i've seen it happen off the coast of Florida, but i think thats very rare.

 

image.png.3c7fe9cafbefbecce43fcf259e98776c.png

Edited by SouthSideDahlonega

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