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NorthGeorgiaWX

2018-2019 Winter Discussion

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49 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Right now, the Euro ensemble sees the negative EPO starting around the Thanksgiving time frame.

It sounds like we are going to have a very cold and hopefully wet winter!

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3 minutes ago, Dyan said:

It sounds like we are going to have a very cold and hopefully wet winter!

That is what it is sounding like. ? I have a new forecast to add to the winter forecast compilation later today.

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58 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

That is what it is sounding like. ? I have a new forecast to add to the winter forecast compilation later today.

I look forward to it!! I'm trying not to get my hopes up for a snowy winter but with all the predictions coming out and how everything is falling in place for it to happen it's so hard not to optimistic! 

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9 minutes ago, Dyan said:

I look forward to it!! I'm trying not to get my hopes up for a snowy winter but with all the predictions coming out and how everything is falling in place for it to happen it's so hard not to optimistic! 

Yep. There is certainly a consensus with the forecast. We'll call it the ensemble forecast. ? We'll take all of those, blend them together and see what we end up with. But my guess, even with a few that aren't so gung-ho about cold and snow, it will still turn out cold wintry. ❄️

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1 hour ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Yep. There is certainly a consensus with the forecast. We'll call it the ensemble forecast. ? We'll take all of those, blend them together and see what we end up with. But my guess, even with a few that aren't so gung-ho about cold and snow, it will still turn out cold wintry. ❄️

Let's hope so!

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Actually, the slightly superstitious part of me does not like the consensus.  It seems like the more we hear something will happen -- and from more people - it ends up not happening.  I want to say:  "Shhhh!  Don't jinx it!"  ?

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5 minutes ago, Bagsmom said:

Actually, the slightly superstitious part of me does not like the consensus.  It seems like the more we hear something will happen -- and from more people - it ends up not happening.  I want to say:  "Shhhh!  Don't jinx it!"  ?

? Time will tell!

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Yes DT does seem to be a butt.  He made a few errors on his months should of said dec 2018 then jan2019 Feb 2019 March 2019 lol

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Joe D'Aleo just posted the new Weatherbell winter weather updates including updates to their proprietary Pioneer model and wow.

If you are dying for a great winter, according to them, this is going to be it. I can't show you the Pioneer images at the moment, but December is very cold (~3-4 degrees below normal), January looks like 5-5.5 degrees below normal, and February goes deep freeze at 7 degrees below normal, while at the same time, precipitation is above normal for all months. 

Quote

Pioneer inputs arrived a bit early this month (except the PDO). Here are the new analog set

1963/64, 1965/66, 2009/10, 1996/97, 2013/14, 2004/05, 1968/69, 1978/79, 1977/78, 1966/67. 1978/79 and 2013/14 jumped into the mix.

But what I can show you are the anomalies based on the analogs that Joe posted above, so here are what those look like. Ready for winter? ?

 

December Temperature Anomalies

08-winter_anom_dec.png.99ebbb3062ba335aa2fd98bb32e75683.png

 

December Precipitation Anomalies

08-winter_precip_anom_dec.png.b0895412da1beea7d8e67aedd3398c63.png

 

January Temperature Anomalies

08-winter_anom_jan.png.c49c5e42da64faf0de6548268e5e8ed4.png

 

January Precipitation Anomalies

08-winter_precip_anom_jan.png.e3f3652a4ae8851a881eb217c406c447.png

 

February Temperature Anomalies

08-winter_anom_feb.png.da4f6b2da3db052b7bb92764978eb745.png

 

February Precipitation Anomalies

08-winter_precip_anom_feb.png.a86248d333bbdc25f5cc498711fe601b.png

 

March Temperature Anomalies

08-winter_anom_mar.png.78066b1958e1493c20a41cfa70a58c54.png

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Yes A snowy winter here in North Ga. Excited would like another 8 inches here in Woodstock in early Dec.

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