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Good Friday morning!

Looks like another nice day in store for today and tomorrow! 

Quote

Now in the time of year where we can get showers and thunderstorms
just about any hour of the day.
As such, seeing some activity on
the periphery of the forecast area, the first along an outflow
over East Central Alabama and the second a dying NW flow cluster
over Tennessee. Models have been consistent in showing NW flow
regime flattening out as ridge builds northward. Beginning to see
Tennessee activity push more east than south as a result although
will be a close call for portions of Towns county later this
morning.

As mentioned, with upper ridge building in, will transition to a
more typical summer type regime and away from the NW flow one.

About as typical as you can get from an ingredients perspective as
precipitable water increases to 1.30 inches, CAPE increases to
2000 J/kg and 500 temps are a seasonal average around -10C. Best
deep layer moisture will reside for portions of West Central GA
and coincides with best instability as well and will go with low
end chance pops there. Likely not quite enough instability to
produce significant activity, but DCAPE high enough to allow for
some isolated strong activity this afternoon.

As ridge continues to build for Sat, pops will decrease and temps
will continue their climb up. Upper 80's to lower 90's will be the
rule for temps
while pops will be limited to the eastern tier.
Highest chances will be over the NE higher elevations but even there
only low end chance warranted given upper ridge.
 

 

So minor chances for afternoon and evening thundershowers at least for a few days. After that... well... it might as well be summer.

Quote

The extended forecast period will be characterized by increasingly
dry and hot conditions as a strong ridge takes hold of the
Southeast.
The only potential for any rainfall will come at the
beginning of the period as an upper shortwave and weak surface front
brush north Georgia Sunday night into early Monday. The GFS is more
bullish on precip potential with this feature while the 00z ECMWF is
even drier with any very limited precip relegated to far north
Georgia.

Beyond Monday, the upper ridge builds in earnest, squashing any
opportunity for rainfall. Temperatures will respond as the ridge
builds through the end of next week with widespread 90's expected
Tuesday and beyond. High temperatures even look increasingly likely
to approach or exceed the 100 degree mark by late week in central
Georgia, nearing record highs for the dates
. With the persistent dry
and hot conditions, developing drought conditions in central Georgia
will continue to worsen.

 

As of NOW, there are no record highs in the forecast ANYWHERE over the lower 48 states over the next 7 days. Not saying that couldn't change, but it's not in the forecast grids right now. Here is the 7 day temp forecast for Lawrenceville from the National Blend of Models.

KLZU_2019051704_blend_min_max-17.png.a396501f73d5ec8b35cb95ac8864de89.png

 

Here at the house, I've had 5 May's out of 9 where I've recorded a max temp in the 90's, so 90's in May are pretty common, at least at my house. 🙂 

Snap30.jpg.ee9f696a2ecd356db0e073d7b329aeba.jpg

 

Right now in my backyard, I'm running a little below normal for the month of May

Snap31.thumb.jpg.b59e3f2f9c6a5e6729c34281b35cec21.jpg

 

I'm not sure why they didn't update the drought images yesterday... I'll keep checking back.

So... still not a bad forecast, but things will start to dry out maybe more than we'd like to see. The rainfall over the next 7 days is a little sparse across the southeast. Combine that with high temps and the top soil layers start to dry out very quickly. We're already seeing a crusting of the top soils over south Georgia, and they could use about 6" of rain before seeing any respite from the drought. 

wpc_total_precip_nc_28-17.thumb.png.2d96fa54a865179326a174cdf69995cc.png

 

It's going to be a bright, bright, bright, sunshiny day. 

 

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Bets on 100+ degrees on at least 1 day in Athens for upcoming heat wave??? Lol!!!

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7 minutes ago, Rusty said:

Bets on 100+ degrees on at least 1 day in Athens for upcoming heat wave??? Lol!!!

Hmm... I'll bet you don't hit it. 😉 97º for a max. 

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4 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Good Friday morning!

Looks like another nice day in store for today and tomorrow! 

 

So minor chances for afternoon and evening thundershowers at least for a few days. After that... well... it might as well be summer.

 

As of NOW, there are no record highs in the forecast ANYWHERE over the lower 48 states over the next 7 days. Not saying that couldn't change, but it's not in the forecast grids right now. Here is the 7 day temp forecast for Lawrenceville from the National Blend of Models.

KLZU_2019051704_blend_min_max-17.png.a396501f73d5ec8b35cb95ac8864de89.png

 

Here at the house, I've had 5 May's out of 9 where I've recorded a max temp in the 90's, so 90's in May are pretty common, at least at my house. 🙂 

Snap30.jpg.ee9f696a2ecd356db0e073d7b329aeba.jpg

 

Right now in my backyard, I'm running a little below normal for the month of May

Snap31.thumb.jpg.b59e3f2f9c6a5e6729c34281b35cec21.jpg

 

I'm not sure why they didn't update the drought images yesterday... I'll keep checking back.

So... still not a bad forecast, but things will start to dry out maybe more than we'd like to see. The rainfall over the next 7 days is a little sparse across the southeast. Combine that with high temps and the top soil layers start to dry out very quickly. We're already seeing a crusting of the top soils over south Georgia, and they could use about 6" of rain before seeing any respite from the drought. 

wpc_total_precip_nc_28-17.thumb.png.2d96fa54a865179326a174cdf69995cc.png

 

It's going to be a bright, bright, bright, sunshiny day. 

 

Amazing Steve that you are below normal, we are +3.2 for May at Athens Ben Epps Airport! Amazing difference a few miles makes!

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1 minute ago, Rusty said:

Amazing Steve that you are below normal, we are +3.2 for May at Athens Ben Epps Airport! Amazing difference a few miles makes!

I would like to know EXACTLY where that temp sensor is located there. It would not surprise me if it was not optimally sited. If there are any building or concrete around it, the reading is suspect. I'll go look at Lawrenceville (Briscoe Field KLZU) and see what there average is. They are 5 miles almost due west from me. 

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I am exactly 5 miles Southeast of Ben Epps in a rural area and my daytime temperatures are usually 1-2 degrees cooler and at night it depends! On a calm clear night I am usually 2-3 degrees cooler especially in the fall and spring seasons, but on a cloudy or windy night we are usually identical!

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19 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Hmm... I'll bet you don't hit it. 😉 97º for a max. 

I hope you are right!!!

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9 minutes ago, Rusty said:

I am exactly 5 miles Southeast of Ben Epps in a rural area and my daytime temperatures are usually 1-2 degrees cooler and at night it depends! On a calm clear night I am usually 2-3 degrees cooler especially in the fall and spring seasons, but on a cloudy or windy night we are usually identical!

Read this

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/05/03/big-news-verified-by-noaa-poor-weather-station-siting-leads-to-artificial-long-term-warming/

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Finally... next Friday "may" see some new record highs, we'll see. The Euro EPS has backed down a little on the temps, trend? We'll see.

These circles are forecast highs within 1 degree of the record. 

ndfd_record_hi_se_7.thumb.png.1cbc9f5198d934021f9478ecdc3ecebe.png

 

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2 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

 

I know Reed's one of the best out there but he really got caught in a bad spot on that one. He and his team are lucky to be okay there...

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