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Happy Monday morning to everyone! And especially TEACHERS!!!! This is it... the home stretch. You can do this now!!!

Seeing a little shower this morning? It's spitting rain here at the house right now but it won't last for long and won't really wet anything.

Quote

TODAY

A weak upper level wave should cross GA today. Moisture with this
feature looks limited...but a couple of the high resolution models
are showing a few showers/thunderstorms this morning mainly north
and west. Previous forecast had low chance pops for a portion of
north and west through about 18z. Have no real reason to make a big
change so have kept a slight chance for the same area through the
morning. Otherwise high pressure will be building aloft across the
southeast through the short term. Rising heights will push
temperatures above normal through the period for most of north and
central GA.

LONG TERM - Tuesday Night through Sunday

An early season heat wave will be building through this week into
the Memorial Day weekend as a strong upper ridge anchors over the
Southeast. By the Thursday into Friday both the ECMWF and GFS
forecast 500 mb heights around 594-595 dam. These heights would be
record levels for the dates based on sounding climatology at FFC,
and in fact would be on par with all-time records for the month of
May.


All of this is to say that temperatures will run well above
normal through the week. While temperatures will already be hot by
midweek with widespread low-to-mid 90s across the CWA, temperatures
will continue to ratchet up through Memorial Day. By Friday into the
weekend, widespread mid-to-upper 90's can be expected, and some 100-
degree temperatures become increasingly likely across at least
portions of central Georgia. Daily high temperature records
appear to be in jeopardy during this time frame. Refer to the
climate section below for daily record temperature information
through the week.


Given this strong upper ridge, precipitation opportunities will be
more or less nonexistent with only an isolated shower or storm
possible in the northeast Georgia mountains on Thursday.

20190520_1038_kffc_BR_0.5.thumb.png.d84c1b53f7c539fdad599df040467578.png

 

The National Blend of Models (NBM) brings 95 degree temps to my area by Friday.

KLZU_2019052003_blend_min_max-20.png.029e335c41daf735532cfeb4156fa426.png

 

forecast-20.thumb.jpg.b41aa56010c21cdbe9434daded0e6b48.jpg

 

All of this heat is only going to worsen the drought conditions over central and southern Georgia. For the moment we're doing fine up here, but that's not going to last for long.  The plants are really starting to suck the moisture out of the soil (evapotranspiration) and it won't be long before we start feeling the effects here. Here are my calculations. I don't have a soil moisture sensor (but I will when I move to the mountains!) so these are calculations done by my software. This is a measure of how much moisture is being pulled from the soil and through the plants. I have this data on my main page at DaculaWeather.com

Snap32-20.thumb.jpg.98d97f664709e7e39a6bb3a060a96c8b.jpg

 

So get use to it, the heat is going to hang around for a little while, but I'm still not convinced that this is what we will see all summer... at least we'd better hope not! 🙂 

Hope everyone has a GREAT day!

 

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fema06_swody1-20.png.1006fe1a9ed500828810eae39fdf051d.png

 

Quote

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0212 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

   ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over
   parts of the southern Plains this afternoon and tonight...

   * LOCATIONS...
     Northwest Texas
     Western and central Oklahoma

   * HAZARDS...
     Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track
     Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
     Widespread large hail, some baseball size

   * SUMMARY...
     An outbreak of tornadoes, some potentially long-track and
     violent, is expected today into this evening over portions of
     northwest Texas into western and central Oklahoma. More-isolated
     but still potentially dangerous severe weather, including
     tornadoes, is possible in surrounding parts of Texas, Oklahoma,
     Kansas, and Arkansas.

   Preparedness actions...

   Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
   of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, 
   weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
   watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
   during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
   your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
   interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

 

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Quote

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1256 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
   AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
   OKLAHOMA...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   An outbreak of strong tornadoes and severe thunderstorms is expected
   today across parts of the southern and central Plains. In addition,
   many of the storms will have very large hail and wind damage. The
   severe threat will be concentrated from west Texas and the Texas
   Panhandle eastward across Oklahoma, Kansas into western Missouri and
   western Arkansas. Additional severe storms with wind damage and hail
   will be possible this afternoon from southeast New York into
   southern and central New England.

   ...Tornado Outbreak Expected Across the Southern Plains Today Into
   Tonight...

   ...Southern and Central Plains...
   An impressive and potent upper-level trough will move quickly
   eastward across the Desert Southwest today as a powerful 75 to 90
   knot mid-level jet rounds the base of the trough. Ahead of the
   system, a corridor of strong instability is forecast across the
   Southern Plains from west Texas into the eastern Texas Panhandle and
   eastward into western and central Oklahoma. This combined with steep
   mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level shear will be very
   favorable for severe storms. As the mid-level jet ejects
   northeastward across the southern High Plains this afternoon and
   evening, a tornado outbreak is likely across the southern Plains.
   The tornado outbreak is expected to continue into the overnight
   period. This event should result in a significant threat to life and
   property.

   RAP forecast soundings late this afternoon along the instability
   corridor from Childress, Texas northeastward to Clinton, Oklahoma
   show MLCAPE values of 3000 to 4500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 50
   to 65 kt range. In addition, hodographs are large and looped with
   0-1 km shear values in the 30 to 40 kt range. This environment
   should be very favorable for supercells and tornadoes. 0-3 km
   storm-relative helicities are forecast to steadily increase from
   about 300 m2/s2 in the late afternoon to about 450 m2/s2 by early
   evening as an anomalously strong low-level jet becomes better
   focused. This will be ideal for a tornado outbreak with strong
   tornadoes upstream and to the west of the low-level jet.

   The current thinking concerning the details is that the first round
   of severe storms will begin early as thunderstorms initiate in west
   Texas and move northeastward into the eastern Texas Panhandle by mid
   to late morning. Initially, large hail will be the main threat but
   as these storms mature, tornadoes will be possible with the stronger
   and more dominant cells. Additional supercells with tornado
   potential are expected to initiate near the warm front in western
   and central Oklahoma. A tornado threat will transition to large hail
   and wind damage as the storms move into Kansas to the north side of
   the boundary. This first round of severe storms is forecast to move
   northeastward, away from the warm sector, allowing for the
   development of extreme instability during the mid to late afternoon
   from northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma.

   The second round of severe storms is expected to start during the
   late afternoon as repeat initiation takes place in west Texas. Rapid
   supercell formation is forecast along the I-27 corridor from the
   vicinity of Lubbock northward to just south of Amarillo. A cluster
   of tornadic supercells is then forecast to move northeastward into
   northwest Texas and the southeastern Texas Panhandle during the
   early evening. Additional tornadic supercells are forecast to
   rapidly develop in southwest Oklahoma and move northeastward into
   west-central Oklahoma. At that time, the strengthening low-level jet
   will couple with a highly progressive and seasonably strong
   mid-level jet, making conditions favorable for long-track strong
   tornadoes and possibly violent tornadoes.

   The greatest threat for long-track tornadoes will exist along the
   corridor from near Lubbock northeastward to Childress, Altus,
   Lawton, Clinton to just west of the Oklahoma City and Enid
   vicinities. After considerable deliberation, a High risk will be
   issued for parts of west Texas, the southeastern Texas Panhandle
   into western Oklahoma.

   In addition to the tornado threat, conditions will be very favorable
   for large hail and wind damage. Strong instability, enhanced
   deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will make
   hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter possible with the
   more intense supercells, mainly in west Texas and the western half
   of Oklahoma. A wind-damage threat will also exist across much of the
   southern Plains due to the expected intense nature of the storms.
   The wind-damage threat, including some gusts above 70 kt, should
   become widespread during the late evening into the overnight period
   as squall line organizes and moves quickly eastward across the
   southern Plains.

   ...Southeast New York/New England...
   An upper-level trough will move across southern Quebec and the
   Northeast today. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward
   across New York and into western New England. Ahead of the front,
   surface dewpoints in the mid 60s F should result in destabilization
   of the airmass by afternoon from southeast New York into much of
   southern and central New England. Scattered thunderstorm development
   is expected around midday along the cold front with this convection
   moving eastward across the moist sector during the afternoon.
   Forecast soundings along the instability axis from Springfield,
   Massachusetts northeastward into Vermont at 21Z show MLCAPE values
   peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range and have steep low-level
   lapse rates. This combined with 0-6 km shear values around 35 kt
   should be sufficient for multicells with wind damage potential. A
   few rotating storms with a large-hail threat may also develop.

 

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1 hour ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Happy Monday morning to everyone! And especially TEACHERS!!!! This is it... the home stretch. You can do this now!!!

Seeing a little shower this morning? It's spitting rain here at the house right now but it won't last for long and won't really wet anything.

20190520_1038_kffc_BR_0.5.thumb.png.d84c1b53f7c539fdad599df040467578.png

 

The National Blend of Models (NBM) brings 95 degree temps to my area by Friday.

KLZU_2019052003_blend_min_max-20.png.029e335c41daf735532cfeb4156fa426.png

 

forecast-20.thumb.jpg.b41aa56010c21cdbe9434daded0e6b48.jpg

 

All of this heat is only going to worsen the drought conditions over central and southern Georgia. For the moment we're doing fine up here, but that's not going to last for long.  The plants are really starting to suck the moisture out of the soil (evapotranspiration) and it won't be long before we start feeling the effects here. Here are my calculations. I don't have a soil moisture sensor (but I will when I move to the mountains!) so these are calculations done by my software. This is a measure of how much moisture is being pulled from the soil and through the plants. I have this data on my main page at DaculaWeather.com

Snap32-20.thumb.jpg.98d97f664709e7e39a6bb3a060a96c8b.jpg

 

So get use to it, the heat is going to hang around for a little while, but I'm still not convinced that this is what we will see all summer... at least we'd better hope not! 🙂 

Hope everyone has a GREAT day!

 

I hope you are right Steve, but that dang Bermuda Ridge has been consistently strong and displaced to the West over the Southeast since at least Mid-December, although it flattened a little in March! The drying ground is going to feed back! Pattern is eerily similar to summer 1993! That summer was a beast, especially July!!! I hope you are right and I am wrong, but I have a feeling that Ridge is going to be an on and off unwelcome visitor for a good part of the summer!

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29 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

 

I hope most people in Texas and surrounding states have good ways to get information, it sounds like they are in for a rough evening/night 

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Posted (edited)

Either Mod- Steve or King

Significant Tornado Parameters today in Okl are off the charts. 37.4 was mentioned.  In retrospect, what were the STP’s in N Al in the April 27 outbreak?

Edited by RickyD

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53 minutes ago, RickyD said:

Either Mod- Steve or King

Significant Tornado Parameters today in Okl are off the charts. 37.4 was mentioned.  In retrospect, what were the STP’s in N Al in the April 27 outbreak?

Good question. I'll have to see if I can dig that up.

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1 hour ago, RickyD said:

Either Mod- Steve or King

Significant Tornado Parameters today in Okl are off the charts. 37.4 was mentioned.  In retrospect, what were the STP’s in N Al in the April 27 outbreak?

Quote

The significant tornado parameter (STP), which includes CAPE, SRH, and the effect of a low LCL (T07), attained values > 5 over a relatively large region including northeastern MS, central to northern AL, and areas to the northeast. Such a large area of high values serves as a good discriminator for tornado outbreaks (Shafer et al. 2012). A maximum STP value > 10 was diagnosed in eastern MS and western AL at 2200 UTC (Fig. 2g). The median STP value in T07 for significant (EF-2 or greater) tornado environments was near 2.5. Only 5 of 835 supercell proximity soundings examined by T07 had an STP greater than 10, placing this environment well above the 99th percentile for supercell storms. In a recent study, covering the 2003–11 period (including the 27 April outbreak), Thompson et al. (2012) show a mean STP of 8.9 for EF-4 to EF-5 tornadoes. Storms over the warm sector where boundary forcing appeared subtle were more discrete than those that evolved along the boundary, in general agreement with the observations presented in Dial et al. (2010). Bunkers et al. (2006a,b) have presented observational evidence that discrete supercell storms exhibit longer lifetimes.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00229.1

 

Quote

Thus, by many metrics, the 27 April 2011 outbreak was the most significant tornado outbreak since official records were started in 1950. 

 

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mcd0699-20.gif.15b765ccc636c9ad5858cd91b11addbe.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 0699
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019


Areas affected...southwest into central OK...western north-central
TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 201617Z - 201845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...
A Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch will
likely be needed for portions of central and western OK.
Observational trends and short-term model guidance suggest a watch
being issued during the 1pm-2pm period.


DISCUSSION...
Visible satellite imagery shows a bubbling cumulus

field over western north-central TX into southwest and south-central
OK.  Rapid moisture advection is occurring late this morning with
surface dewpoints rising into the lower 70's over southern OK.
Upwards of 4000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected by early to mid afternoon
across western and central OK with intensifying wind profiles.

Short-term model guidance appears to have a reasonable depiction of
free warm sector initiation occurring over southwest and
south-central OK during the 2-3pm period.  The observational trend
in visible satellite imagery showing more pronounced bands of low
cloud cover ---perhaps indicative of horizontal convective rolls
and/or low-level confluence zones is supportive evidence for this
model-based depiction.  The expectation is for storms to develop on
the northern half of these cloud features with explosive supercell
development likely thereafter.  Forecast soundings show a very rare
combination of intense low-level SRH, very moist boundary, and
extreme buoyancy.  As such, the risk for strong to violent tornadoes
appears to be increasing later this afternoon into the early
evening.

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While we're close to record highs, other places are setting record min highs.

...RECORD COOL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MAY 19 IN NORTH CENTRAL
   AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...

LOCATION           NEW RECORD    OLD RECORD    YEAR SET  RECORDS BEGAN
BANNACK STATE          44            51          2015       2007
DILLON AIRPORT         45            46          1982       1929
UTICA 11SW             38            50          2012       2008
ST MARY                41            52          2011       2003

 

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STP values were observed as high as 14-15 I believe. I don't know what they were modeled at prior to the event. HRRR is the main model showing the astronomically high numbers, as high as 41 so far today. Purely speculation on my part, but I have to wonder if STP is even designed to be modeled at such high resolutions. With the HRRR capable of modeling individual tornados, I wonder if that can skew the upper end of the data set because of highly localized off the charts numbers. STP is not a perfect science anyway because plenty of high STP events have been busts. But all of these had suspected limiting factors beforehand. 

None of this changes the reality of today's event though. Multiple parameters are maxed out over large regions, and much like in 2011 searching for a limiting factor is becoming increasingly difficult. 

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Seeing a population center like Oklahoma City inside 45% hatching is scary... 

And a big tip of the cap to the folks at the SPC in Norman as they diligently do their duty while being in the bullseye themselves. 

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12 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Seeing a population center like Oklahoma City inside 45% hatching is scary... 

And a big tip of the cap to the folks at the SPC in Norman as they diligently do their duty while being in the bullseye themselves. 

Yea, this isn't going to be pretty. There are 500+ people on the OUN chat site right now. BUSY day.

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"Radar trends show first surface based storms of the day have initiated south and east of Lubbock. These storms will eventually pose a threat to southwest OK and/or western N TX. Other cells are showing signs of development south of Elk City and west of Anadarko."

20190520_1813_klbb_BR_0.5.thumb.png.12511a2782cc1e3fcc268bfc0601f98c.png

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That was quick

Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Watch 199

Quote

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 199
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   135 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Central and Western Oklahoma
     Northwest Texas

   * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until
     1000 PM CDT.

   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

   * Primary threats include...
     Numerous tornadoes and several intense tornadoes expected
     Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 80
       mph expected
     Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 4
       inches in diameter expected

   SUMMARY...An outbreak of tornadoes, including the risk of intense
   and long-track tornadoes, is expected to develop this afternoon
   across the watch area.  Very large hail and damaging wind gusts are
   expected with the numerous supercell storms.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 40 miles west of Altus OK to 50 miles
   east southeast of Chandler OK. For a complete depiction of the watch
   see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 197...WW 198...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean
   storm motion vector 23035.

 

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