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Mesoscale Discussion 0728
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0606 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 208...

Valid 212306Z - 220100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 208

SUMMARY...Several reports of funnel clouds, severe hail, and one
tornado in northeast Kansas have occurred in the last few hours.
Loss of better instability and low-level lapse rates with time
should limit the tornado threat as the evening progresses. Cold air
aloft will continue the threat for severe hail with any of the
stronger storms.

DISCUSSION...Modest buoyancy and effective shear have led to a
mostly multicellular storm mode across severe thunderstorm watch
208. Cold temperatures aloft associate with the mid-level low have
help the stronger cells produce 1-1.5 inch hail over the past few
hours. A few reports of funnel clouds have also been noted even with
some of the weaker convection to the vorticity rich environment.
While most funnels have been brief and not touched down, a storm
along the occluded front was able to produced several tornado
reports as it moved from Dickinson County to Riley County Kansas.
Going forward, storms along the occluded front, where low-level
shear is maximized, may be able to show transient low-level
mesocyclones. However, activity should begin to diminish with time
as storms will continue to lose access to unstable air. The greatest
threat for sever will come from stronger cells given the cold air
aloft. Damaging wind gusts will also be possible until low-level
lapse rates decrease this evening.

Activity will continue to move northward into southeast Nebraska.
Convective trends will have to be monitored for a possible watch.
Current probability of a watch for portions of southeast Nebraska is

..Wendt.. 05/21/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   37599762 37759787 38129834 38369850 38709890 39239895
            39909848 40349678 39749582 38299584 37549723 37599762 

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