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Mesoscale Discussion 0730
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

Areas affected...eastern Missouri...southern and central Illinois

Concerning...Tornado Watch 207...

Valid 220037Z - 220200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 207 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 207, and a
downstream Watch is being considered across adjacent areas of
east-central and southeastern Illinois.

DISCUSSION...A strong to severe linear complex continues to migrate
northeastward across WW 207 currently.  The most intense portion of
the line continues across east-central Missouri near the St. Louis
Metro area, where the line has interacted with backed low-level flow
associated with an east-west oriented warm front in the area.  This
warm front will lift slowly northward over the next couple hours in
response to 40-50 kt 850 hPa flow, and a reservoir of moderate
instability will lift northward in tandem with the boundary. 
Meanwhile, enhanced SRH with backed low-level flow near the boundary
will contribute to storm organization, with wind damage and
occasional tornadogenesis near areas of rotation within the line. 
The line itself should reach the eastern extent of WW 207 around the
02Z time frame, and if the intensity of the line is maintained
through that period, a new downstream Watch may be needed.

..Cook/Guyer.. 05/22/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   39839094 39969002 39908881 39818804 39398770 38628778
            37898824 37458886 36898933 36648986 36669039 36859075
            37499073 38329084 38949110 39499116 39669111 39839094 

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