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  1. 9 points
  2. 7 points
    Good Saturday morning! A cool morning in store for all but the moisture is lifting away and after the clouds clear, we should have a pretty nice weekend in store. Looking at the week ahead, it appears we'll have three distinct chances for precipitation, and at least a couple of those will bring a chance for some light wintry mix, especially over the mountain areas. Here's what Steven Nelson at the Atlanta NWS office has to say about it. Honestly, I'd show you some images but I'm just not seeing anything to show you right now. And I'll also be honest in the fact that I'm not seeing any real cold that will bring winter weather. Unless the firehose flow from the Pacific shuts down, I'm not seeing a good chance for winter weather for our area, and right now that is not happening. πŸ˜” If it's going to snow, it will snow while I'm down in Sarasota the week after next (2nd-7th). πŸ˜€ Count on it. 😜 So we'll watch and wait, that's all we can do. Meanwhile, we may have some VERY light and very brief mixed precip chance just to tease you and make you sad. Have a great Saturday!
  3. 6 points
    Good morning! Today will be a transition day as the sun goes back behind the clouds and the rain returns. The bigger picture this morning shows the rain off to our west while moisture at the higher levels starts streaming in. There is a chance that some may see a little rain today, but generally the rain will hold off until the early morning hours on Monday. The first image is rainfall through 7 PM Monday and the second image goes through 7 AM Thursday. Snow. The other four letter word. πŸ™‚ The models are still showing some potential for some very light snow/flurries across the top tier of counties in Georgia, and the resulting snow would be similar to the last event, maybe a little less as there just isn't a lot of moisture to work with. NOT A FORECAST I'll be keeping an eye on it in case there are some slight changes but I wouldn't expect anything big. The low responsible for the weather will be passing to our west, so our only hope is wrap around moisture as the low departs, and that never works out too well for us here. Snow is in the grids as far south as my house in Gwinnett, so we'll see how it goes. We will be getting colder though. Temperature anomalies go from this on Tuesday morning... To this on Thursday morning. Thursday AM Friday AM Saturday AM Sunday AM On Monday, Florida looks like s sore thumb with temperatures almost 20 degrees below normal. So get out and enjoy what's left of the sunshine, it won't be around for long today and you probably won't see it again until next Thursday and Friday! I hope everyone has a great Sunday! I will be celebrating another year on this planet and another lap around the sun today, and I am truly blessed to be doing this for you. Thank you for following me while I journey through this life! πŸ˜‡ πŸŽ‚
  4. 6 points
    Good morning! Most people are waking up to foggy conditions this morning, and the fog may hand on for a while, so if you have to be out and about, drive carefully and turn on your lights. Here's a water vapor look along with the 500 mb heights. You can't get much more of a zonal flow than that. If you wonder where the cold is, it's all bottled up over the Arctic. Well see mostly cloudy skies today, there could be some sun in places after the fog lifts, but a few showers are not out of the question. The next real wave of rain returns tomorrow. I guess you saw that... the flurries part. It's possible, but whatever falls won't be much. Here's what the models think. NOT A FORECAST The NAM 12km sees some snow but also some sleet, it's the only one showing that right now. The Canadian has the most. And the GFS and Euro have the least. Still can still change. Remember the other day when it all disappeared and I said that it may come back. What we're seeing now may be it, it may disappear again, or it may have more snow. With marginal events you sometimes don't truly know under the event gets underway. The February 8th snow was like that. No one thought we'd see that much snow but you see what happened. I'm NOT saying this will do the same thing, but there is always that possibility here in Georgia. Regardless of whether someone sees snow, everyone will see rain, and here is the WPC rainfall forecast for the next 7 days. We'll continue to watch for any changes in what the models show, we still have 3-4 days for things to evolve. Have a great Monday!
  5. 6 points
    I did find my favorite ensemble member
  6. 6 points
    Good morning!!! How about that snow? πŸ™‚ As dumb as this sounds, I feel like the pressure is gone now. We had a pretty long stretch going and I know everyone was getting frustrated. I'll have the final Georgia now totals a little later, but here's a look at the current CoCoRaHS measurements. Most of north Georgia had more snow than the Smokies. πŸ™‚ Most of the snow will be gone today and then we prepare for our next weather system arriving Monday. Pay attention to the weather next week. Here's the Weather Prediction Center's Excessive Rainfall Discussion and map. The WPC rainfall amounts over the next 7 days look like this. Not pretty. This area in NW Georgia is already in some form of flood stage, and the heavier axis of rain will fall in that area again. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_river_forecast.php Flash Flood Guidance says it won't take much rain to push any area into a Flash Flooding situation. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_flash_flood_guidance.php NWS Atlanta's thoughts: Here are the counties in the Flood Watch That's it for now. Be careful if you have to get out this morning, especially in those areas that dropped below freezing last night. Whatever is frozen should melt pretty quickly today, so conditions should be improving. Have a great Sunday!
  7. 6 points
    For those that haven't seen the dream snow, here it is. I feel guilty posting it. ABSOLUTELY NOT A FORECAST πŸ™‚
  8. 5 points
    I've got a lot of miles on me. The earth travels 584,000,000 miles in a year in its trek around the sun. I've been 37,960,000,000 miles. No need for anyone to do any calculations... 😜 I go around the sun fast. πŸ™‚
  9. 5 points
    Fox 5 mentioned the lake effect potential. Pretty cool if it verifies. Also, can I get a 2 hour delay tomorrow?!
  10. 5 points
    Snow at Woody Gap. GDOTs been here.
  11. 5 points
    Good morning! A little cooler and drier start to the day this morning compared to what we've had for a while. Temperatures are in the low 30's to upper 20's and I'm running about 22 degrees lower than at this time yesterday. It will be sunny and cool today and tomorrow but the rain returns again starting during the day on Sunday and continues on through the end of next week. 7 day rainfall totals look like this. Yesterday the Euro seemed to have latched onto a potential winter weather event late next week, but this morning it has lost it. Instead, the GFS now sees something. Temperatures are marginal even above the surface although the Euro is colder than the GFS. It looks like a wedge but the pressures don't match. The flow is very zonal so I'm not really sure why it thinks it will snow as much as it shows. NOT A FORECAST So there is still a glimmer of hope, but nothing to write home about right now. I'm going to take a little bit of a break today since it will be nice and sunny! I think we're headed up to Gibbs Gardens tomorrow to see the flowers, they open for the season today. I've never been there but we got a couple of season passes for this year since our future house will be about 9 miles away, so it makes it real convenient. πŸ™‚ Get out and enjoy some rain free weather for a few days. Yes, it will be a little cool but it's winter so it's suppose to be! Have a great start to the weekend!
  12. 5 points
    Good morning! Rain is passing through this morning is bringing some heavy rain at times along with some gusty winds, but nothing severe at this point in time. (EDIT: The 3-4 NE georgia counties under the GSP forecast area are under a Severe Thunderstorm right now) There may be a greater chance of severe weather as the line pushes toward the SE but most likely not over north Georgia. We may have a little winter weather on the horizon, no guarantees right now, but if the Euro says it's so, it must be so. πŸ™‚ At the moment, the GFS doesn't want any part of it, so the battle begins. These are obviously individual model runs and will change, so view these as entertainment purposes only. NOT A FORECAST A little weird but ok... It does remind me of the Snow Jam 2 snowfall with some cold air in place and overrunning moisture from SW to NE. You can see by the thickness levels and their location in this image that it would be cold enough to generate snow. The Euro operational does have ensemble support... But there are lots of different solutions among the ensemble members. We are a week away, so it may get better or it may get worse... no way to know at this point. So we will watch and wait. πŸ™‚ We will start drying out later today, so that is good news! Hope everyone has a great Thursday!
  13. 5 points
    I'm saving all the images from the Euro and GFS so we can watch the trends over time.
  14. 5 points
    The way these last several days have gone, this seems appropriate...
  15. 5 points
    I’m at home sick with the flu so I haven’t been outside much so sorry for the poor quality of the video. It has actually started snowing lightly again. IMG_4674.MOV
  16. 5 points
    I really hope we can get next weekend to work. I'm not very optimistic about it, but that's the only workable look we have right now. I'm afraid if it doesn't work out, our goose may just be cooked. The weeklies look really bad past that point. This snowless streak is wearing on me and has me wanting to move into the NC mountains now lol. Probably sounds silly to those of you to the south of me who regularly go through years long periods with no snow, but this is one of if not the longest streaks in my lifetime and I don't much like it lol. Hopefully I'm just being dramatic and we get buried sometime between now and mid March, but I'm not holding my breath.
  17. 5 points
    Ok- You know me I am the pessimist BUTβ€”β€” I am coming off the ledge and doing a 180 We have the pattern with the lows diving south along the coast so I am going all out Optimistic and saying A good snow for Georgia by 15th of February.
  18. 4 points
    Good morning! It's just a little bit cold outside right now as that big yellow ball starts to rise in the sky. I've got to run out this morning to meet some movers at a storage room we have, they are bringing some of my parents belongings up here from Sarasota, so I will come back later and finish this post. I'll have some more thoughts on the potential for winter weather and a nice shot of cold air for the end of next week. Time is running out... we've got to make something happen or all hope may be gone until next winter. See 'ya in a little while! 😎
  19. 4 points
    Good morning! Did everyone survive the "Southern Slider'? πŸ™‚ Wicked storm it was.... So now we move on as we struggle to dig out. You might get 5 days to recover before we get buried again. 😜 You have three days of sunshine before the rain returns, so you have to get out while you can. Here's a look at temperatures across north Georgia this morning. It will be a cool day today but at least there won't be any rain. Can you imagine that? These are our high temps today. And while it's a little cold this morning, it will be colder tomorrow morning. We will gradually warm up over the next several days though and that warm up will also bring a return of the moisture. You notice I didn't say "rain". I do believe that it has become a new four letter word so I'll try to avoid cursing in front of the kids. πŸ™‚ As we alluded to yesterday, the models are sniffing out another system for next week, and they teased us with some big snow runs yesterday. Let's take a look at the three major models to see what they are seeing. The 500 mb anomalies tell the tale. Several upper level troughs interact and phase over the central part of the country and that is always exciting this time of the year. This type of interaction can bring severe weather as well as snow, so it is something that needs to be watched closely. So in no particular order, here are the 500 mb anomalies The pattern is a little more amplified than it has been, and I think gives us a better chance at having some cold to go along with the moisture. Phasing of two systems is always intriguing to me. The interaction that occurs can sometimes be spectacular and somewhat unpredictable, so this will be very interesting to watch unfold. I can't promise anything at the moment, but I do think it is interesting that all three models are generally seeing the same thing this far out, and I think the potential for this to become something is pretty good at this moment in time. We'll keep an eye on it for you! I hope everyone has a great Friday!
  20. 4 points
  21. 4 points
  22. 4 points
  23. 4 points
    All rain at the moment but we are down to 34.2 with a dewpoint of 29 in Sky Valley.
  24. 4 points
    Good morning! Lingering showers are the forecast for this morning as the front slowly sags south. To the north colder ir and to the south, it is much warmer. The battle line has been drawn. Let's get right to the chances for a few people seeing some snow. First, the NWS Atlanta thoughts. The WPC has the northeast corner of the state as the area with the highest probability of seeing accumulating snow. For a minute, let's assume the NAM 3km is somewhat correct in its depiction of the actual event. Rain would start changing over to freezing rain starting around 6-7 AM tomorrow for the higher elevations. The precip would be very light with some of it not reaching the ground initially. The pink areas are below freezing, and as you can see, much of the area is at or above freezing with a cold rain falling. This continues for a couple more hours. Initially temperatures drop due to evaporational cooling, but by now, the atmosphere is saturated and the dewpoint depressions point that out. Evaporational cooling won't help at this point. Keep in mind that the NAM temperatures have warmed since the previous run... trend or not? We'll see. But to me, the profile temperatures are just so marginal while the precip is around that I find it hard to see how most people will see any appreciable snow. Once again, this is the NAM at the 850 mb level. It's critical that this area be below freezing and you can see that for much of the period when the moisture is around. These loops are from 1 AM Thursday through 1 PM Friday. Further down at 925 mb (about 2500 feet) we see these temperatures for the same time period. For those reasons, this is the "official" NW forecast for snow. THIS IS A FORECAST πŸ™‚ Th NAM is overdone with the snow amounts in my opinion and the impacts will not be as great as the NAM snow image would suggest. NOT A FORECAST Right now the road and soil temps are too warm for anything to freeze without a prolonged below freezing period. Snow may accumulate on elevated surfaces and of course bridges and overpasses, so be cautious if you're out driving in it. Road Temperatures Soil Temperatures There could be some freezing on the roadways from runoff later in the day and Thursday evening. After all this rain, water is still running across roadways and temperatures will get very cold Thursday night. See how that most of the below freezing temperatures during the day are confined to the higher elevations in the mountains. So that's it. I do not think we'll see what we saw last time, I just don't believe the temperatures support that happening again. We'll be following this throughout the day, so please keep checking back, you never know what might happen! Have a great day!
  25. 4 points
  26. 4 points
    Good morning! Light rain falling across north Georgia this morning but the heavier area is to our south for a change. I know... no one cares about the rain at this point. πŸ™‚ As for Thursday, I think a few of the counties across the top of north Georgia are going to see some of the white stuff, especially across the higher peaks of the mountains. πŸ™‚ The overnight model runs all seem to be in closer agreement as to what may happen, and If it does snow, it certainly won't be much. The temperatures just don't quite get to where they need to be to get any meaningful winter precipitation. 850 mb temps are above freezing part part of the time the models are showing snow, so that's not a good sign for seeing the white stuff falling to the ground. We're now within range of some of the higher resolution models such as the NAM 3km, and it's bringing an inch or so to the two top rows of counties. NOT A FORECAST It never gets cold enough at the surface on the Euro to bring anything meaningful, and even the ensemble is meh. NOT A FORECAST Here are the temps for Blairsville from the Euro ensembles and you can see that there may only be a very brief window of opportunity. Based on what I've seen of the overnight runs, the top two counties have a chance to see some flurries and maybe even some snow that sticks to elevated surfaces, but the temperature profiles just aren't as good as the last system we experienced, so I don't expect too much in the way of snow. NWS Atlanta has the same thoughts. As for today... Rainfall amounts through 7 PM Thursday look like this. Sorry I don't have news of a big snowstorm, just tryin' to keep it real. I love snow as much as the next person, but unfortunately, me wishing for it won't make it happen. We'll keep watching it for any changes in terms of profile temperatures as we get closer, as those are the hangups right now. As always, check back for the latest updates! I hope everyone has a great Tuesday! Stay dry! πŸ™‚
  27. 4 points
    So I'm not saying this is significant but it is at least interesting. A meteorologist who posts on AmWx has been tracking model performance on SE winter storms when they are split, and this is the results he's got. This only goes back to December 2016 so not a significant sample size, but interesting nonetheless.
  28. 4 points
    This is going to be extreme needle threading for somewhere in the SE I believe. NAM and CMC are holding that wave back just a little longer, letting the cold seep in just a bit more. Surface temps are obviously an issue and could end up being a pretty white rain event for some people. Edit: Should note the GEFS is trending in that same direction so it's not exactly just the NAM and Canadian on an island.
  29. 4 points
    Good morning! A cold start to the day this morning, a little while ago it was 19.6ΒΊ F at Blairsville and has probably dropped a little since I last looked. Another sunny day today and a partly sunny day tomorrow before the clouds return. No one cares. πŸ™‚ Who wants to talk about a sunny day? I know why you're here... and it's not to talk about sunshine. πŸ˜› If you are here to talk about snow, you've picked the wrong day. The overnight models from the GFS/Euro have taken away your fun. The only model showing any kind of snow if the Canadian, and it doesn't have much. Both the GFS and Euro have the moisture suppressed to the south closer to the Gulf when the cold air is here. Being this far out, that is not necessarily a bad thing. Sometimes the models have a tendency to lose a system this far our only to bring it back again. Not saying that's what is going to happen, but it could be a possibility. Here's the only hold out at the moment, gotta love the Canadians. πŸ™‚ NOT A FORECAST So... since there is no snow to talk about right now, how about let's talk about rain? YEA! I hear the chorus of people cheering for more rain! β˜” Total precipitation for the next 7 days still has a small bullseye over north Georgia, so don't put away the waders just yet. And just so people don't forget... it is not abnormal for Georgia to get warm in the winter. It's going to be a beautiful day with lots of sunshine, I hope everyone can get out and enjoy it. Even Sunday won't be too bad, maybe a little warmer with a few more clouds, but overall a pretty nice day. Have a great Saturday!
  30. 4 points
    Guess there is a reason they say go big OR go home, cause there's gonna be a lot of people on those interstates not going home if it goes that big lol.
  31. 4 points
    Good morning to everyone! We're in the dry right now, but that won't be the case later. While the heavier rain may be behind us, the next 7 days are far from dry. The SPC has the NW corner of the state in a "Slight" chance for severe weather. The NWS has a mention of wintry weather, but I'm not seeing it right now. Here's a look at the temp anomaly and soil moisture for the first 10 days of the month. We're not the only ones that have been warm as you can see. You can find these maps here: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_soil_moisture_us.php Friday and Saturday look to be sunny and cooler but it won't last for long as the rain returns for Sunday. I know, everyone is tired of the rain but hold those thoughts until summer and be careful what you wish for. Have a great Wednesday and try to stay dry! πŸ™‚
  32. 4 points
    I posted to him this morning. I told him he had a good imagination. Went back to 1993 and the Glenn Burns story. Nobody believed what they saw in the models. The odds were next to impossible to align up and phasing to occur. And now he is willing to say such without any model proof or suggestion?? Imagination. I told him odds were it would happen again.... in 100 years
  33. 4 points
    And ECMWF Ensemble starting to bark a little. As always a needle will need to be threaded but there is definitely a window of potential there.
  34. 4 points
  35. 4 points
    Sigh. I. Am. So. Over. Rain. My poor septic would like 3 days of sun please.
  36. 4 points
  37. 4 points
    Might as well show you a "REAL" snow picture I saw this morning. This is Denver.
  38. 4 points
    Good morning! Going to be quick, we have a busy day down here in Sarasota today! A Flood Watch is now in effect for north Georgia. WPC WPC rainfall amounts look like this. As far as the severe weather goes, Wednesday and Thursday are the days. However, north Georgia will be spared the brunt of any severe that occurs, as the better instability will remain south for the most part. Here's the Day 2 and Day 3 Severe Weather Outlook maps. DAY 2 DAY 3 I'll be back later today to have another look and provide any updates the might be needed. Have a great Tuesday!
  39. 4 points
    Good morning! Last day of the month and no snow! πŸ™‚ One more "good" month and we're pretty much toast. We can always hope for a 1993 Storm of The Century in March but I'm not sure I would hold my breath. πŸ˜’ Light rain moving across the area today, lighter to the north and heavier to the south. There is a wedge in place this morning and you can see the surface winds pushing in from the NE, so that will help to keep the temperatures nice and cool today. The showers will linger through the day on Saturday before clearing out and bringing a couple of beautiful days for Sunday and Monday. Enjoy it while you can because you know what returns starting Wednesday.... β˜” Here's what our January temp anomalies look like up to this point and it looks like we're running about 5-6 degrees above normal. If you'll go back and look at yesterday's post, I have 20 years worth of these so you can compare. We've had warmer January's. Our temperatures starting off February aren't going to feel like February. These are GFS temp anomalies through the 10th. So that's about it! Mild wet weather and sunny hot weather are about as exciting as watching paint dry, so not a lot to talk about at the moment. I do wish those people out there with a cold or the flu a speedy recovery, the flu is nothing to mess with. Hope everyone has a great Friday and a great start to the weekend!
  40. 4 points
    Good morning! January has come to a close and we start a new month. And we're going to be starting the month pretty much the way we ended the last one.... with rain. Today won't be a rainout, just a few very light showers/sprinkles passing through. We will have two great days of weather with sunny skies and temperatures in the 60's, but don't let that lull you into complacency. That warm moist flow at this time of the year can also be a sign of more ominous things to come. Day 5 Day 6 You don't normally see a 15% area this far in advance so there is increased confidence in what they are seeing right now. If you don't read the WPC discussions I post each morning, here is an excerpt from today's. Rainfall amounts will be on the increase again, but not until Tuesday. All of this rain falls between 7 AM Tuesday through 7 AM Saturday, and it would not be surprising to see these totals go up. The Euro has a little more rain, the GFS a little less, so the WPC is using a blend at the moment. This is the Euro. So after the showers today, a couple of days of very mild, almost spring like weather, and then a chance of some real spring like weather in the form of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms for Wednesday through Friday. Oh... congratulations to all of you that saw some snow yesterday! I love surprises, especially when it comes to snow! πŸ˜ƒ Have a great Saturday!
  41. 4 points
    Well.... Needless to say this was a bizarre morning lol. Being caught off guard by the weather is something that doesn't happen to me much but it definitely did today. I got about an inch of snow, roads were briefly covered, and the schools got closed. This is a pic someone sent me from the Elementary school here in Rabun. I really don't know what just happened. Feels like divine intervention at this point. But just like that, the streak is over for Clayton, GA. I hate that the rest of y'all couldn't get some, hopefully a big storm can sneak up on us too.
  42. 4 points
    Good morning! Hope you enjoyed the peaks of sunshine yesterday, that is coming to an end with some light showers for north Georgia later in the day and into this evening. Looking ahead toward the rest of the week... I have a great interest in the period around Feb 2-9. Both the GEFS and Euro EPS are bringing serious 500 MB anomalies into the lower 48 states during that period, and the 00Z Euro control run has height anomalies off the chart. Control run If we get a shot at winter... who knows, this may be it. We have a lot of time to watch it to see how it evolves. Right now, there are no specific areas to point out for snow potential simply because we're too far out in time. But the ensembles are seeing more than we have seen, and here's what they look like through the 10th. GEFS - Not a Forecast Euro EPS - Not a Forecast Canadian - Not a Forecast All we can do is watch and wait. If I had the power to steer these things and set them up perfectly, I would certainly do so, but that is a little beyond my magical powers. No worries for now, we have 50-60 model runs to watch before it gets here. πŸ™‚ Have a great Sunday!
  43. 4 points
    If the models are right about the storm tracks in the long range and they don't turn into cutters as we get closer, then it likely all comes down to HP strength and placement. Timing can also play a factor in these thread the needle scenarios, storm moving in late night/early morning has better chance of locking in some cold. I will admit my comments yesterday were mostly tongue in cheek, trying to make light of just how bad we've failed with good long range looks this winter. I do like where things stand going into February, especially for the mountains. One noticeable difference from last time is that the EPS is also on board with numerous snow chances. Last time, outside of an off run here or there, it was trying to key us in on the truth from the beginning. We were just too enamored with the pretty maps the GEFS was giving us lol
  44. 4 points
    12pm GFS is giving us a glimmer of hope.
  45. 4 points
  46. 3 points
    2.6" in Sky Valley now but snow is lightening up.
  47. 3 points
    Most liberal use of the word "airport" known to man. lol
  48. 3 points
    With such a flat zonal flow, it will all come down to how far south the cooler air can push while the moisture is around.
  49. 3 points
    Slightly reassuring, but I’m thinking if we don’t score in the February 5-14th timeframe, winter is toast! Because it looks to get back to a warm regime after that cool down and it seems to take 2-3 weeks to end a warmup this year, so we will see
  50. 3 points
    Good morning! Our rain chances will be on the increase today and those chances continue through the day tomorrow before ending later Friday night. This morning we have a wedge pushing into the area from the NE, so expect cool temps with overrunning rain showers as the day progresses. Rainfall totals look like this. Looking ahead, a few models are showing an extended period of below normal temperatures while another one isn't as bullish. CFSv2 CMC Extended (Canadian) Euro Weeklies There may be a possibility of some winter mischief around February 2nd, but that is still 10 days off so I won't get in to that much at the moment. I don't like getting anyone's excitement level up too far because if it doesn't happen, excitement turns in to depression and we certainly don't want people in tears. 😜 I did find my personal snow storm while I was shopping, so I'll be thinking about you when I'm surrounded by the white stuff. 😎 In summary, there will be a couple of days of rain and cool temps followed by generally sunny skies and mild temperatures in the 50's for highs and 30's for lows. Pretty typical winter temperatures that maybe a few of degrees above normal. These are the "normal" highs and lows for January 23. I hope everyone stays dry and has a fabulous Thursday!
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