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Showing content with the highest reputation since 12/16/2018 in all areas

  1. 23 points
    Ok... going out on a limb by creating this post, but I believe there is enough model justification to warrant it. No guarantees! 😜 The models are all beginning to show threats for this time period even though we're 10 days or so away. The mythical blocking is finally appearing, major cold intrusions, and glimpses of snow across the southeast are all part of the picture. This is unfolding exactly as expected and it appears that winter may be settling in for quite a while. The models are still all over the place, so continue to expect large swings in the model runs. Later this evening, I'll try to put something together to help illustrate the changes that we're seeing. But I can tell you this... my excitement level has gone up considerably today. πŸ™‚
  2. 21 points
    Hump Day! For those teachers and students here in Gwinnett, you only have one more day of school after today! Well... don't expect to see that yellow ball of fire in the sky today. I suppose it could peek out a little but the rain is returning tonight, and we'll stay like that for Thursday and Friday. The WPC precipitation forecast shows a widespread 1.5" rainfall event with isolated higher amounts. Temps will be running a few degrees below normal during that period, somewhat offsetting the last two days that we had that were above normal. Winter is still on track folks. Despite all of the calls for "winter fail", "winter is over", blah, blah, blah, winter is not over and it hasn't even started. EVERY year it's like this, EVERY year. Snow weenies jumping off cliffs, crying and wailing and the gnashing of teeth. And while it's predictable, it has also become comical... at least for me... I guess because 1) - I'm not the one crying and wailing and gnashing my teeth, 😜 and 2) - I know winter is not over. This is where you have to separate model watching with meteorology. People want to go out, take a look at the operational runs, and know what is going on. Please don't be that person. Models are not designed to be the gospel, and especially one model and one model run and ESPECIALLY 10 days or longer in advance. And ESPECIALLY during transition periods when the models are flailing around. It's the BIGGER signs you want to watch for, not the details, if you get the bigger picture right, the details will follow. So for now... just know that changes are coming... the winter forecast is on track. I am very excited to see the forecast for the early SSW event and it's timing with the MJO moving into more favorable winter time phases. Combine that with a Modoki el Nino and active subtropical jet, and I see a VERY volatile winter with LOTS of potential. We've already seen several gulf coast storm tracks already, all we need are a few of those when we have cold temps and we're golden! Just the combination of the SSW and MJO alone has the potential to bring a severe cold outbreak to the eastern US in January. So all I can say is... buckle up folks... the ride is almost ready to leave the station.
  3. 11 points
    Good Tuesday morning! Well... today is the last warm day for while, take advantage of it! We go from 60's (I hit a high if 68.5ΒΊ F yesterday) to 40's tomorrow with little to no fanfare. There is only a light chance for showers as the cold front comes through today, so nothing exciting weather-wise associated with it. Still looking for a low probability winter weather event this weekend, as overrunning moisture over a wedge many bring some frozen precipitation to the mountains. Still a lot of uncertainty in the forecast right now, but the trend in recent model runs has been toward colder temperatures, so we'll see how this evolves. NWS Forecast Low Temps for Saturday Looking at the Euro temps this morning, and after today for many people, temperatures don't go above 49 degrees for the next 10 days. Don't be surprised to see them colder. I believe that today marks the beginning of our change to winter, and all signs point to a steep downhill slide from this point on ⛷️. Seat belts fastened... arms up! πŸ˜‰β„οΈβ„οΈβ„οΈ
  4. 9 points
    Let me emphasize that DO NOT LOOK PAST 3-4 DAYS ON THE OPERATIONAL RUNS RIGHT NOW.
  5. 9 points
    This is a full week out, and still I find myself still checking this thread obsessively.
  6. 9 points
    Both the Euro and GFS "see" some winter precip for Friday/Saturday, but temps don't really support snow at the moment. But hey... let's roll with it. πŸ™‚ NOT A FORECAST
  7. 8 points
    New to the site! Excited to follow the information!
  8. 8 points
    Good Sunday morning to you! Another chilly morning after the overnight rain. Today won't be too bad, but Monday through Wednesday look to be great. The rain returns Thursday BUT... after that, things start to go downhill very quickly as arctic air comes blasting in next weekend. Once this happens, it's not going anywhere for quite a while. Lots of exciting things on the horizon and I can't remember when I've been more excited about winter. All of the pieces are falling into place and I truly believe this is going to be a winter that goes on the record books for the southeast. Bold statement? Maybe. But based on what is going on and what is expected to follow, it may not be bold enough, we'll see. If you haven't been following the thread about the upcoming period, you need to be! Here's an image I shared this morning. This is the GFS ensemble showing surface temperature anomalies over a 16 day period, and each block is one day. Keep in mind, these anomalies are in centigrade... covert those to "F" and these are brutal cold.
  9. 8 points
    I know everyone is really tired of the warm (but pretty normal) weather we've had for part of December. I do understand. I won't talk about how this was pretty much in every forecast, because I know you don't want to hear it now, so instead I'll talk about what I see going on and why I believe that we are entering a very exciting time. I am excited about the upcoming period. When I say period I mean from basically now through the end of February. There are going to be some exciting times ahead as we progress into a volatile winter pattern. Think about this. None of the winter forecast had an early season Major SSW, yet almost all forecast showed a cold winter with above normal snowfall. Now you add the affects from a major event like this SSW on top of everything else that's going on, and you have a recipe for a winter to remember. Keep in mind, the models are not infallible and are sometimes VERY wrong in what they show. Even the highly touted Euro fails. The main thing for the moment is don't bother looking past 5 days at any of the operational models... they are going to be wrong for now. Think about it this way. If I throw one pebble in a calm pond, it's going to be easy to predict the wave motion. If I throw 50 in a once, how hard do you think that will be to predict? It's no different with weather. If the patterns are relatively stable, the forecast accuracy will be high, once the pattern gets volatile, the accuracy goes down. The more variables you throw in to the mix, the tougher it gets. Most of the time, the stratosphere has little practical impact at the surface, but in the winter during SSW's, it can have a MAJOR impact, and the models struggle with how to handle that. There is a limited amount of stratospheric data for the models to use in generating forecast and even less certainty on the practical affects at the surface, so the models end up all over the place. But here is what I'm looking for. The first thing I want to see are the signs of the high latitude blocking, and that will flip around for a while. Start looking at the teleconnection patterns. Do you want to see what major high latitude blocking looks like? This is the GFS ensembles from the last run yesterday, and this is the Arctic Oscillation (AO). When the AO goes negative, it means that the PV has been displaced from the polar region and instead replaced by high pressure. If the PV is displaced, so is the cold. Notice the extreme dive in the index. Arctic Oscillation (AO) And this is the general result In case you'd like more information, take a look at my Arctic Oscillation page for more information http://www.daculaweather.com/4_ao_index.php North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) There is one more piece that we need in terms of blocking, and that's a negative NAO, and again, the last run from the ensemble yesterday took that deeply negative as well. More information on my NAO page http://www.daculaweather.com/4_nao_index.php East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) But wait! πŸ™‚ There is another block piece that we need... a negative EPO. Without the -EPO, the continental US gets flooded with warm Pacific air. Not good. So we want to see a negative EPO. Again, the ensemble run from yesterday as well as a link to my EPO page and a colorful example. πŸ™‚ Notice the extreme step-down of the EPO. So the point is, you have to look past the everyday models and look at the bigger picture. I know I've posted a lot about the strat warming, but that is because of the potentially significant effects it will have on our winter. It is the "amplifier" to what was going to happen to start with, and those original winter forecast were for a pretty good winter. So add all of these things together, and we should be in for a great Jan/Feb period. So hang in there... if I'm excited, you should be excited as well!
  10. 7 points
    I'm excited b/c you said when you get excited, we can get excited!!!!! I can't wait!!!!!
  11. 7 points
    Happy FRIDAY! πŸ™‚ Friday's are always good in my book! Enjoying the cold weather so far? At least it feels more like winter, now we need to find the winter weather. Based on what I'm seeing, we may not have to look very long! Get out and enjoy today if you can, because tomorrow is going to feel a little raw. It might be time for that fire in the fireplace because temperatures are going to remain in the 30's for most of the day, with cold rain on top of that. Sunday isn't much better but it may be slightly warmer than Saturday. Here's what the NWS has to say about the chance for any winter precip. High Temps Saturday High Temp Anomalies Saturday WPC 72 Hour Rainfall Forecast I''ll have more on the upcoming winter chances (start getting excited... I am ) later today. ❄️ Have a great Friday!
  12. 7 points
    Have you just come here to troll or what? You keep arguing about anything actually happening, but when Steve responds with data and models, you just roll over and say you don't know what that means. Unless you have some actual data other than your weather channel app on your phone and the fact that its in the upper 50's this week, lets keep the criticism constructive. This is Georgia, and warm temps don't mean winter is cancelled. As seen in this table, during the blizzard of '93, our median high was 70 for the 5 days prior, and 55 the day before the storm. I'm here for informative discussions based on data, models, and previous observations, not thoughts and gut hunches.
  13. 6 points
    Just keeps looking better and better. Although I’m more confident about that 24th-26th period, the 20th is still very interesting. Maybe we can get really lucky and score a 1-2 punch lol. That PV piece trending further and further south on EPS would lead to more suppression of the 20th system which is what we need to get that track south.
  14. 6 points
    "This has the potential to be the most severe 30-60 day period since the 1970's". Joe Bastardi Let's see if that comes true.
  15. 6 points
    From Matthew at FirstHand Weather Keeping a close eye on the upcoming weekend for parts of the South, Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic. A Gulf Low should develop late Friday and move eastward through the weekend. At the same time, clipper-like system will dive towards the southeast from the Midwest. This should aid in precipitation and a temperature profile supportive of wintry weather for the areas outlined on the map. This event is several days out and guidance is split so confidence is low at this point. It is possible moisture gets suppressed further south, which would decrease wintry precipitation chances for the outlined areas. Keep checking back for updates as some of the questions begin to get ironed out as we get closer to the weekend. -Meteorologist Christopher Nunley
  16. 6 points
    Good morning! πŸ™‚ I'm seeing things that I think people are going to like! Does anyone remember a few days ago (8:23 am Thursday to be exact!) when I said that opportunities were showing up around the 12th? If not... opportunities are showing around the 12th. πŸ˜› More about that coming up! In the meantime, you couldn't ask for a more beautiful stretch of winter days before the hammer falls. Get out and enjoy the next 5 days!
  17. 5 points
    I really hope he isn’t delusional. We need a good storm!
  18. 5 points
  19. 5 points
  20. 5 points
    It's ALL good news. πŸ™‚ Winter is on the way.
  21. 5 points
    This is the part I hate. Sitting... waiting... Yes, we know the pattern is changing, but everyone wants to see concrete evidence, they want to see a big snowstorm barreling toward us like a giant avalanche. I know because that's what I want. But I (we) have to be patient. We've had our 60 days of cold, 30 days of warmth, so it's now time for our 60 days of cold again. Winter is knocking on the doorstep, no question about it. But until the models can get it all figured out... we wait for our storms. I have a lot of pictures of me when I was younger and growing up in Nashville, playing in the snow, and maybe that is one reason I love snow so much. I remember going out and staying out until your feet were frozen. You would come back in, throw the clothes in a dryer, eat something, throw the clothes back on and head back out. They were great times. I remember one snow that was so large, that we blocked off the top of the hill where we would sled with a big berm of snow so no one could drive through. The mailman wasn't happy with us. These early pictures had to have been taken when I was about 5 years old, so around 1960. I don't remember the snow back then other than from these pictures and only remember this house from these pictures. But I do remember the snows we had when I was in the 6th grade on up. Listen to Bastardi talk about the winter's of the 60's, and you'll understand the snows I grew up with. Those snows brought so many great memories. And we're not talking little snows, I'm talking BIG snows. Take a look. I'm sure everyone has some favorite childhood memories and pictures of snow, so feel free to share them here. My sister My mom "The Big Dipper" Me on the back of the sled with my tongue sticking out, Robert Hagstrom driving. He went on to write "The Warren Buffet Way" https://www.thriftbooks.com/w/the-warren-buffett-way-investment-strategies-of-the-worlds-greatest-investor_robert-g-hagstrom_bill-miller/251273/?mkwid=sGAAUWCGY|dc&pcrid=70112890512&pkw=&pmt=&plc=&pgrid=21326630352&ptaid=pla-485630667792&gclid=Cj0KCQiAvebhBRD5ARIsAIQUmnn86fJPe0goaigXQctAbBdXcTHbQI_er1CH2b-Z3fKSsTj3G_d8oN8aAqIoEALw_wcB#isbn=0471177504&idiq=1535729
  22. 5 points
    I've created a new thread for the period of 20-27th.
  23. 5 points
    Mother of god anybody saw the latest FV3?! It's pure model porn lol. So nice I had to save it for the archives. If only we could see such a system.
  24. 5 points
    Changes on the horizon... πŸ˜‰
  25. 5 points
    Steve, your doing a awsome job by keeping us informed esspically me. I read your blog every morning. And I'm sorry other are being rude or think your God and can make weather happen.but your not. And the thing about the weather men and women on tv. They only talk about weather 5 to 7 days out. So something king range as the cold weather coming or ETC. You will only hear about it just a few days out. So for all the people who are being negative. Just relax. And let the weather happen. Becuase I find it very interesting to see what's in store. What could happen and what wont happened. Winter is only 10 daya old. We have 2 1/2 months left of winter. Plenty of time to let "Winter" happen. We all know for the ones who live in Ga. It can be 70Β° with severe storms 1 day and wake up the next morning with 2 inches of snow on the ground...
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