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  1. 4 points
    Good Monday morning and happy Veterans Day to all of those who serve or have served in the military! Thank you for your service and sacrifice! The morning big picture. Notice the VERy cold air that's building over Canada. This morning I'll share the thoughts from several NWS offices that surround our area so you can get a better idea about the cold air and potential for winter weather. Let's start off with NWS Huntsville. They usually have great AFD's and tend to explain things very well. NWS Huntsville NWS Birmingham NWS Atlanta Here is the official NWS forecast for snow. So you can see, we're on the edge but not on the good side of the edge. πŸ˜‰ I'll be watching the progression today and if I need to make any updates I will. Right now the mountains may see some flakes of snow, but it will be more of a novelty than anything else. Hope everyone has a great Veterans Day!
  2. 4 points
    Good morning! Showers will be the weather word today in advance of our first cold front. Here's a look at the big map. But you're not wondering about showers are you? β„οΈβ„οΈβ„οΈπŸŒ‘οΈπŸΊ Even this morning's HWO has mention of the possibility. As I said yesterday, cold chasing moisture doesn't always work out well as the timing has to be pretty close to perfect, so we'll see how this goes. Yesterday I showed the GEFS, Euro, and CMC ensembles for Blairsville, and I will continue to use Blairsville as the example so we can watch the trends. Remember, while the snow maps are pretty, the ensembles give you a better idea of the potential of the system, at least until you get within 3-4 days. Even then you always want the full support of the ensemble suite for confidence. Let me try to explain these images so you better understand what you are looking at. Each ensemble is made up of individual members and those are the rows p01-p50 depending on the model, the Euro has the most. Each row is a model run that has slightly and randomly perturbed initialization parameters so that each run starts off just a little different from the other runs. That is also why each "row" may end up different than any other row. At the bottom of each image you see a blue line. That is the control run. Each individual ensemble member initialization is based off of that run, ie, that is the run that the slightly tweaked members are based on. The green bars are accumulated totals. Using the Euro as an example, notice how you see three "step ups" in those bars. That would tend to indicate three different periods of accumulating snow. Notice also the each member may start and stop the horizontal bars at different times and that can be something like timing differences or it may even see a different type of system and therefore showing a different result. All the ensembles have trended toward more snow since yesterday, and the Canadian (or course it would be the Canadian) is still going bonkers for snow. Yesterday it was only 6", today the average of it's ensemble members is 8-9". That being said, this can all go the other way, so that is why we have to keep watching these and how they trend. These run 4 times a day, so we have about 20 model runs between now and the event. And please remember, models do not make forecast. The models are simply guidance, a tool for meteorologist to use to "guide" them in the creation of a forecast. Every model has known biases that can steer a particular model output in a certain direction. Meteorologists understand those and can use that knowledge to help determine which model is showing the best solution for a given situation. If you read the Extended forecast discussion that I post every morning, you'll get a better idea how they do that. Here's a look at the GFS operational run temperatures. The GFS is colder that the Euro right now, so it will be interesting to see how the two models converge on the final solution. Either way, Wednesday/Thursday will be cold. Here's another unique view of the cold air that is coming. This is a cross section of the atmospheric temperatures over Blairsville with the date going left to right at the bottom. Notice the zero degree (C, or 32F) area next Tuesday/Wednesday. That is when the snow would fall if it snows. That column of air needs to be below freezing so you don't end up with sleet/freezing rain, or even rain. Notice those periods on the chart where it's very warm aloft. So exciting times ahead and we're just getting started! Can't wait to see what winter will bring us! πŸ™‚ Have a great Thursday!
  3. 4 points
    Good Wednesday morning! Well.... yesterday didn't work out too well for rain. Just lets us know that Mother Nature is in charge despite all the great weather models and brilliant minds that predict the weather. And no... I'm not referring to myself. πŸ™‚ I just pass along what they say, I''m the messenger. πŸ™‚ Rain is starting to increase across the area this morning and should continue to increase as the day goes on. If we zoom out a little, you can see the rain to the west, and that is headed our direction. So here is their message for today. The extended part has a little more confidence. By 9 pm Thursday night, the front should be south of the north Georgia area and you can see that dry air reflected in the precipitable water values. It is going to feel "crisp". Here's a loop of the precipitable water that shows the first frontal passage plus the following surge of colder drier air during the weekend. These are the Friday morning lows from the National Digital Forecast Database. The NDFD IS the NWS forecast, not a model. It's going to be a great football weekend! And these are the highs at 2 pm on Friday. Chilly. And if you read the extended discussion above, these same basic temps hold through the weekend. There is still a LOT of rain in the forecast, and this image goes through 8 AM Friday. So yes... changes are still on the way. It's early (5 am) so I'll check back later on the progress of the rain, in the meantime, enjoy this rainy Wednesday!
  4. 3 points
    Good morning! Today is going to be very busy in many ways for me, so I will be brief this morning. Our next system is beginning to take shape over the center part of the country and it's going to be a big one. A deep negative tilt trough is developing over the Rockies and that trough will interact with an area of disturbed weather near the Yucatan peninsula to drive heavy train through parts of the central and eastern US. WPC thoughts I shared in the Extended Forecast Discussion And the thoughts from the Atlanta NWS office Rainfall from the WPC looks like this through 8 am Sunday... And like this through 8 am next Thursday. Looking ahead... I see good news. I will try to get back later and post some updates for you. For now, I hope everyone has a great day.
  5. 2 points
    Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 433 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2019 .SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/... Brief Wintry Mix Possible in Far North Georgia This Morning Satellite analysis this morning indicates a very impressive troughing pattern from the eastern Great Lakes down the western Appalachian then over into central Texas. Along it, radar shows a band of precip, mostly consisting of rain with reports of some sleet and snow on the rear of the line as an Arctic cold front has quickly plunged into the northwestern forecast area, which will bring unseasonably cold temperatures along with it. Behind the front, an extremely large area of subsidence shows the extent of the Arctic high pressure behind the frontal system. The center of the high currently sits in the central plains with a central pressure around 1043hPa. Throughout the morning, the cold front will continue quickly pushing southeast with the entire forecast area expected to be behind the front by noon today. Behind the front, strong gradient winds will prevail with sustained winds up to 20 mph and gusts between 25-35 mph possible. A Wind Advisory has been issued through 7 PM. As the line of precip moves through the area, most of us will see a little over a half inch of rain in total with temperatures varying widely across the forecast area as the cold air move into the region. In the far northern portions of the forecast area, a race between subfreezing air moving into the area and drier air behind the front eroding away the precip will determine if and how much wintry precip could occur. Model guidance has been very consistent with this system for several days and have been pushing towards a transition from rain to a mix of snow and sleet, to a chance for an hours-worth of light snow before the precip dries up in the cold, dry airmass. Chances for any wintry precip will be primarily confined to the northernmost 2 rows of Georgia counties and will have the best chances in areas over 2000 feet in elevation. Roads in these higher elevations could become slick by early morning where temperatures fall below freezing for an extended period of time. Any accumulations of wintry precip are expected to be minor and not cause significant impacts at this time. For more details, please see the most recent Special Weather Statement. While temperatures this afternoon are expected to stall as cold air advection is countered by diurnal heating, tonight temperatures will plummet once the sun begins going down and the skies clear. These will be by far the coldest temperatures of the season with Columbus and Macon in danger of setting record low temperatures. Lows are forecast around 20 for far north Georgia and mid- to upper-20s are forecast along and southeast of the I-85 corridor. A Freeze Warning has been issued for the remainder of our forecast area where the Autumn Frost/Freeze program remains in effect. Tomorrow, the high pressure will be moving across the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic, and will dominate the weather pattern. Clear skies will allow high temps to climb back into the mid- to upper-40s, with light winds out of the east becoming breezy during the afternoon. Thiem
  6. 2 points
    Good luck on your house hunting!
  7. 2 points
  8. 2 points
    My bud from Ringgold said this morning that Chattanooga Mets are saying Thursday a chance of accumulating snow with system from the south?
  9. 2 points
    This early in the season if I can just see some flakes falling I'll be happy.
  10. 2 points
    It's time to share the infamous Brazilian model! This is only for fun because there is no model that can predict snow this far in advance. Green is snow in the top graph. It does show a Dec warmup but big time cold starting the middle of Jan. πŸ™‚ Definitely for entertainment purposes only πŸ™‚
  11. 2 points
    6z GFS is really interesting. It's much slower and stronger with the southern piece of energy. Ideally this is what we'd need as it would allow more time for the high pressure/cold to build in out front. However on that run the high moves out just too fast leading to rain. As I've been saying, that is just an absolute classic low track for a southeast winter storm, timing out the cold is always the hard part. The odds of this working out are pretty slim, but the fact that all the necessary players are on the field this early in November is encouraging.
  12. 2 points
  13. 2 points
    gimme gimme! I’m already prepping to build a fire in my fireplace next week!
  14. 2 points
    Hello again everybody! Looking forward to what’s coming down the line this fall and winter season. Hopefully all of us will get to enjoy a nice cold and snowy winter.
  15. 2 points
    Just crazy to see the consistency with which the waves of heavy rain moved through all day today. I do believe the models might have underestimated the upslope enhancement in the final rain totals.
  16. 2 points
    Good Sunday morning! Did you get any rain? It appears that most of north Georgia received some rain, some more than others. I just made my CoCoRaHS report this morning (I had 1.68" here in Gwinnett) but saw a 1.89" at Rabun Gap and 1.79" about 9 miles NW of Blue Ridge. The reports will start coming in very quickly now, so I'll give you a better update with a map then. The radar estimates are way off for several reasons. One, much of the rain that fell came from clouds below the radar beam, especially from those areas that are further away from the radar. The other reason was that the small size of some of the water droplets (misty and light rain) makes it more difficult for the radar to pick up. Here is the radar estimated view. It says I only had 0.75", so WAY under done. The greens are up to 0.50" and blue 1-2". Here's a big picture look at the US this morning. You can see the remnants of Nestor getting blown up the coast as well as our next big weather maker and our Mon/Tue cold front taking shape over the western US. That trough is expected to form a closed low over the plains and create a strong cold front that will bring severe weather over the plains tomorrow. Our focus now turns to the next two systems that are on the map. The first one comes in Tuesday and then another possibly stronger one next weekend. The best part of this news is that there is the potential for another 3-4" of rain across north Georgia over and above what we just had. I wanted to share this part of the WPC Extended Forecast Discussion from this morning pertaining to the setup. They are talking about next weekend. I just took a look at all the models this morning and wow, what an active pattern coming up. Lots of chances for rain and below normal temperatures over the next several weeks. Today will be the warmest day this week with our temps jumping up pretty dramatically from yesterday's highs as moisture begins to return in advance of our late Monday night/Tuesday cold front. The timing of the front is such that the heating of the day will not be a factor (night time passage) so the thunderstorms will not have the necessary energy to get as strong as they might have gotten otherwise. Here's the WPC Severe Weather outlook for Monday and you can see the worst of the weather is far to our west, and we're not even on their map for Tuesday. The front will bring rain for us and "right now" these are the projected rainfall amounts from the Weather Prediction Center through 8 PM Wednesday. But when we look ahead to next weekend we start to see those totals build. From Friday the 25th 8 AM through Sunday 8 AM, these are the expected 48 hour totals. For NOW. πŸ˜‰ You know... things can change. And that would bring the 7 day grand total to something like this. So we'll see how all of this evolves this week. I love active weather periods, you have all kinds of stuff flying around and that always leads to surprises down the road. πŸ™‚ I hope everyone has a great and dry Sunday! Enjoy this fall weather! πŸ™‚ Winter begins in 63 days. The dead leaves fall like noiseless rain, The air is calm and warm and sweet; Upon the woodland and the plain The ghost of summer rests her feet. –Clinton Scollard (1860–1932) The Old Farmer's Almanac
  17. 1 point
    Yeah I’m not sure what to make about the whole Glenn burns thing..... normally he’s not like this. 😳
  18. 1 point
    Good morning! It's 4:02 AM so an early edition today! Current situation Back in a little while with more updates.
  19. 1 point
    This is the system I've really been interested in the last few days. All it takes is that HP locking in just a little better and stronger and boom, you've got a classic wedge overrunning event.
  20. 1 point
  21. 1 point
    There could be some snow in TN, but very marginal for GA right now.
  22. 1 point
    Feed me ensembles! Nom nom nom
  23. 1 point
  24. 1 point
    My forecast here near Lawrenceville. Does the cold arrive in time or not?
  25. 1 point
    Models are struggling ---------------------------------- Preference: 07/00Z ECMWF and EC Ensemble Mean and 07/12Z NAM Confidence: Slightly Below Average The 12Z suite of NCEP guidance continues to struggle with numerous and hard-to-time shortwave troughs riding around the periphery of an anomalously strong mid/upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The 07/12Z GFS has more energy, and therefore a stronger frontal progression, into the U.S. Pacific Northwest while the 07/12Z NAM clustered better with the ECMWF. Even though the CMC/UKMET were more aggressive than the ECMWF with the pattern, those models remainder closer to the NAM/ECMWF idea than they did with the GFS.
  26. 1 point
    Oh jeez will be on the road to Nashville Tuesday.. hmmm
  27. 1 point
    Just to be clear you said 8-9" possible on Tuesday next week for Blairsville? what about Cherokee county?
  28. 1 point
  29. 1 point
    1st chance to play model watch. Showing snow for nw corner in the last gfs run. And it begins. Lol
  30. 1 point
    Seeing morning low temperatures in the 30's already? 😨 I guess I need to dig out the winter apparel this weekend. I have been putting it off, as if that would convince summer to stick around a bit longer.
  31. 1 point
    Safe travels and thoughts and prayers for all of you.
  32. 1 point
    So sorry to hear about your Father. Hang in there and be safe you two.
  33. 1 point
    Larry Cosgrove's Long Term Forecast
  34. 1 point
    Good morning! Busy day today so here we go. I'm having doubts on how much we'll see here. First, Nestor information as of 4 AM . You can see the winds have dropped but so has the forward speed. NWS Atlanta WPC Excessive Rainfall Discussion Meanwhile, further south, most of Florida is under a Tornado Watch (outlined in purple). My dad is getting hammered in Sarasota right now. I'll be tracking Nestor all day, both here and on Facebook, so please check back in for the latest. BTW, look at the highs for today i the image below. This will be our coolest day of the fall so far. Have a breezy Saturday! πŸ™‚
  35. 1 point
    Not that the EPS is the end all be all of modeling, but this flip certainly can't be ignored. We'll see if the GFS suite sticks to its guns over the coming days.
  36. 1 point
  37. 1 point
    If anyone would know... I'd trust Ryan
  38. 1 point
    GFS showing very limited moisture except on the coast. Inch, maybe Inch and a half..... Definitely not tropical moisture and it is moving fast. But we are in a prime spot for a normal system. Instead it seems to be either right on the coast, or on the S Carolina upper coast?
  39. 1 point
    Steve I have been reading this morning. Some are posting the Euro, Some the GFS--In other words, same old song,different verse. They have warnings from La to almost mid Fla. Hurricane to subtropical predicted ... Your thoughts?
  40. 1 point
  41. 1 point
    Lots of lightning in the Gulf. Things are cranking! πŸ™‚
  42. 1 point
    Got to 35 last night. Might have a shot at a frost if it stays calm and clear tonight.
  43. 1 point
  44. 1 point
    Good morning! πŸ™‚ Light showers are scattered across the area this morning, but things will be quickly changing as the day goes on. NWS Atlanta While the cold air is welcomed, a good dousing of rain would be even better at this point. The thoughts from the NHC And more thoughts from the Weather Prediction Center. The uncertainty lies in the potential track of the tropical system. Both major models depict a tropical system but placement of the track is the big question. The GFS and Euro ensembles still show 2-3" of rain for north Georgia, and the ensembles are the models to watch right now, especially with the great uncertainty in the final outcome. I'll show you the WPC rainfall outlook through Wednesday 8 am. So first things first, we'll be watching the cold front as it slides through the state today. These are the expected low temperatures in the morning from the National Digital Forecast Database. The NDFD maps are the actual NWS forecast temps. Let's watch and see how it all transpires. We are in a VERY active and chaotic pattern right now and the models are struggling as they so often do when the patterns are rapidly evolving. There are signs that these last couple of weeks of October may be cold. πŸ™‚ Hope everyone has a great Wednesday! πŸ™‚ Bright yellow, red and orange, The leaves come down in hosts; The trees are Indian princes, But soon they'll turn to ghosts.–William Allingham (1824–89) Winter begins in 67 days
  45. 1 point
    Keep in mind, backwoods New Englanders are broadly obsessed with weather, so you'll be in high demand...
  46. 1 point
    If anyone would like to see our itinerary and routes, I can show you that in case you'd like to do something similar. I have ticket prices and the whole works including a spreadsheet with all of the cost. Yes... I'm a little to detailed oriented but it payed off. I tried to plan everything out in advance and for the most part, everything went as planned. It was the best (and I think only) two week trip I've ever taken. We've done lots of 1 week trips but nothing on this scale. The drive was more than 3000 miles but I'd do it again in a heartbeat. The only change in the route up would be to try to bypass DC and Baltimore and that's not hard to do, it's just some extra miles. Those miles are scenic though so it's an enjoyable ride. We did bypass both of those on the way back.
  47. 1 point
    Also just had a thought. Steve maybe you can show us some data. With the Neaster what will it be like on Mt Washington
  48. 1 point
    Good morning! Walk out this morning and tell me how these temperatures feel to you. πŸ™‚ We're looking at the mid to upper 40's across north Georgia today, and even way down here in Gwinnett, I'm at 51.3ΒΊ F at my house. I have two pages (ok, actually four) that display the conditions from the various METAR stations across the north Georgia area and another one for the southern Appalachians. I created some of these for my own use when we took our two week trip through the New England States. North Georgia Southern Appalachians Southern New England Maine Looking around the US, you can see the area the area of moisture that will be our big rainmaker starting late tonight and through the day tomorrow. NWS Atlanta Unfortunately as you can see, the main axis of precipitation has shifted south to central Georgia. @RickyD, this is the rain you've been waiting for down there in south Georgia! Congratulations! πŸ™‚ The cold air is coming on Wednesday. There will be a slight warm up late next weekend into Monday, but after that.... the GFS has us below normal for the rest of the month. Weatherbell sadi this in their post. These are temperature anomalies. We've haven't yet really dipped down to below normal, but it's coming. NWS Atlanta thoughts So there you go! We'll have some warmer temps return for Sunday through Monday but not hot, as those temps will be accompanied by rainfall, with amounts to be determined later. After that we'll have fall for good. I hope everyone really enjoys these great temps along with the clouds and rain, it is a welcomed relief from the scorching hot summer. Hope everyone has a great Monday! πŸ™‚ Oh... when is the last time you saw red in the precip columns below? πŸ™‚
  49. 1 point
    Winter begins in 69 days. πŸ™‚ You know... if you're counting. πŸ™‚
  50. 1 point
    . 84 inches here this morning! More rain than we've had in the last 30 days. Looking forward to more this week.
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