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Showing content with the highest reputation since 12/18/2019 in all areas

  1. 5 points
    A few nice sunrise images from the Smokies this morning.
  2. 5 points
    Yes, the models are trending cold. The teleconnections for the EPO/AO/NAO are trending toward negative/into negative territory. Add to that the models are indicating changes in the stratosphere. It's starting to look like the flip that we've been waiting for. We'll see.
  3. 5 points
    You are noticeably excited about the possibility of the white stuff!! It’s contagious πŸ˜†
  4. 4 points
    Speaking of that northeast storm... as promised... I have photos! I am with my parents in the northern end of the Lakes Region, near Moultonborough. This was a tricky storm. We had 90% snow here, but there were definite periods of rain, ice, sleet, and I don't even know what else spewing out of the sky. Some photos ... first, pre-storm! Little bit of snow on the ground in shady, cool places. Second pic is how we woke up yesterday morning, roughly the same view! Third is a view from the back - note the second-growth forest (shorter, thinner, different trees than we have in Georgia where the conditions send trees soaring for the skies in few years) and the pre-colonial rock wall. In the quieter, pastoral parts of the world up here, these are everywhere and very old. This particular wall is on-and-off home to weasels, which will have their white winter coats on now. You almost never see them but you will see their tracks in the snow. You can sometimes follow the tracks into the field uphill and find where they catch something. Fourth - snow is great to look at, but better to play in! This kind of sled crash is what we call a 'yard sale' because of everyone and everything strewn across the landscape. Finally, snow's winding down this morning and the temp is rising a bit, but this frames what we got - for where we are, this is a routine storm and we'd see several of these in a winter. Happy New year to all of you, I am grateful for this site, and I hope to bring just enough of this back home to Georgia with me!
  5. 4 points
    As long as the moisture keeps coming, the cold finally shows up, I think we score a good wintry event between the 7-15th timeframe
  6. 3 points
    Ah. the GFS giveth, and the GFS taketh away. πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚
  7. 3 points
    Good Monday morning! Back to work for most people today! This is my job. πŸ™‚ Gotta love it. Well... if it hasn't already started falling, it will shortly. The rain has returned once more. Here's the WPC rainfall through 7 PM Friday Here's the NWS Atlanta tornado survey from the Paulding County tornado Saturday. This is an image of the path, and in the lower left corner on the edge of the blue line, is @LHarkins913 house... that yellow dot. Glad to know they had a plan and went to the basement when the winds got loud. Another important note... I do not believe there was a tornado warning, but I may be wrong. Quick spin up tornadoes can form without warning and then end just as quickly. Sometimes they'll form in between radar scans which makes them difficult to identify, and that was one reason they said to assume every severe thunderstorm could contain a tornado last Saturday . We're still on target for winter to arrive around the 20th, no changes, just more confirmations. πŸ™‚ Here are the obligatory ensemble maps through the 28th or so. GFS mean and ensembles first, Euro mean and ensembles next. We have a new fresh menu every day for your selection. Take your time. May I get you something to drink while you are perusing the menu? πŸ™‚ NOT A FORECAST Take the umbrella and waders with you today, they may come in handy! πŸ™‚ Have a great day!
  8. 3 points
    It is on all the models, including the GFS. The flip is the 20th, ignore everything before then. Temp anomalies go below normal then and generally do not come back up through the end of the run. Cold air masses will moderate over time and then be reloaded. And a pattern flip to cold does not guarantee snow. After the 20th the GFS suppresses every wave far to the south, basically zero precip north of I20 for the entire period. This is happening because of the cold press from the north. I'd be surprised to see that many waves in a row beaten down into the Gulf.
  9. 3 points
  10. 3 points
  11. 3 points
    Back to chasing snow! I’m a little excited for the 7-14 days after about the 18th! Best look we’ve seen in a few years for wintry weather, imo Tomorrows severe is definitely looking concerning! Gonna be a lot of S.C. peeps driving through the squall line heading to New Orleans!
  12. 2 points
    There are definitely going to be opportunities for possible winter storms. The cold and the moisture are going to coincide over the eastern US, the trick is getting it to do so here. Right now suppression is stopping us from really seeing it on the models. Hopefully as time goes on these modeled 1045 HP's that are crushing our storms actually turn into like 1038-1040. Otherwise the gulf coast beaches will be the ones seeing the snow lol
  13. 2 points
    Yes, there is some around, just spotty. You can see a few recent ones up in Hall, dawson, and Pickens counties.
  14. 2 points
    I’m gonna go drive around today and try and snap some pics from my neighborhood and the next one over that got hit the worst... I’ll post them if you’d like...
  15. 2 points
    Doing a little storm chasing today, headed to Gadsden, AL. Stay safe everyone.
  16. 2 points
  17. 1 point
  18. 1 point
    No snow chance for the 24/25th timeframe?
  19. 1 point
  20. 1 point
    Just trend watching but I have noticed on the 12z EURO that the low pressure next Tuesdayish has started to inch its way closer to us. Trend to watch!
  21. 1 point
  22. 1 point
  23. 1 point
  24. 1 point
    More times than not as we get inside 5 or so days gulf storms have a precedent of making large NW adjustments. Not a hard and fast rule but happens the majority of times.
  25. 1 point
    You're watching operational runs right now... that's a no-no.
  26. 1 point
    Looks like a fun GFS run may be coming in right now ❄️
  27. 1 point
    They are 6 hours apart. It's just the closest hour I could match up. Those are accumulated snowfall estimates from today to those dates ~28th).
  28. 1 point
    GreyStone power outages.
  29. 1 point
    Outages are mounting.
  30. 1 point
    New outlook, Enhanced back in Georgia. Also new Tornado Watch coming out shortly.
  31. 1 point
  32. 1 point
    Mesoscale Discussion 0030 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0612 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020 Areas affected...Western KY...Middle TN...Northern AL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 111212Z - 111345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY... A downstream watch will likely be needed across middle TN and northern AL, and perhaps as far north as western KY, as the convective line continues eastward. Primary threats are strong wind gusts and QLCS tornadoes. DISCUSSION... Northern portion of the extensive convective line stretching from southern IN southwestward into southern LA has recently shown better overall organization, evidenced by a sharper reflectivity gradient along the leading edge as well as increased forward speed. This has occurred as the line continues eastward into a very impressive kinematic environment. Recent mesoanalysis estimates over 80 kt at 850 mb across far southwest KY and adjacent northwest TN. Outside of this maximum, mesoanalysis shows a very large area of 70+ kt at 850 mb. These very strong low-level winds are supporting 0-1 km storm-relative helicity values from 600 to 800 m2/s2. Additionally, this portion of the line has become more favorably aligned with the deep layer shear. The downstream thermodynamic environment is not overly favorable but dewpoints in the low 60s are now into middle TN with enough instability anticipated for storm maintenance, particularly given the very strong vertical shear. All of these factors suggest the potential for strong wind gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes will persist eastward into northern AL and middle TN. Instability will lessen with northern extent, but some severe weather threat may still exist into western KY. ..Mosier/Grams.. 01/11/2020
  33. 1 point
    No. We probably won't know much more until the morning.
  34. 1 point
    So things are looking slightly better for us? Slightly
  35. 1 point
    Just posted the timing map. Rain and winds picking late today. It should be out by Sunday morning.
  36. 1 point
    Is there anything specific, you want to share as to why you are saying this?
  37. 1 point
    Anybody heard from Steve? It is not usual for him not to post on either Facebook or this blog. I am worried... 😞
  38. 1 point
  39. 1 point
    I did! I’m still off today because my mom is getting surgery but I’ll be back Monday! Miss having you at work so I can ask you all the weather questions in person!! Haha
  40. 1 point
    Wow. for a moment I thought that was a picture taken in a desert environment. Such a sad and scary situation down there. I wish we could somehow send our heavy rain down to them. I'm not too thrilled about returning to work in a downpour...
  41. 1 point
    We'll see what tomorrow's Day 2 and Day 3 look like. Right now the NW corner of the state is in a "Marginal Risk" area. The image below explains what that means in the legend.
  42. 1 point
  43. 1 point
    Merry Christmas Steve and all the 'the Family". No Christmas is ever the same. And the older we get the less "MAGIC" it seems to have--. But let me remind you that Christmas was never about magic, it was about Love. The Love of a God who would not let us go, and the love of family and friends down here below. So while we have memories, good and sorrowful let us bask in the Love.... Ii thought i would share this. One of the most amazing child prodigy's. Claire has perfect pitch and has since age 3. This is from a couple of weeks ago at age 7.
  44. 1 point
    Warm Christmas.. not what I was looking for.
  45. 1 point
  46. 1 point
    Not at the moment... although it does look like temperatures will be much colder in January.
  47. 1 point
    LSRFFC PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 325 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2019 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0301 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NNE MARBLEHILL 34.47N 84.33W 12/22/2019 M54 MPH PICKENS GA MESONET MESONET STATION FW3168 JASPER. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ NWUS52 KFFC 222035 LSRFFC PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 330 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2019 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0202 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WSW HARTSFIELD-JACKSO 33.63N 84.45W 12/22/2019 M35 MPH CLAYTON GA ASOS ASOS STATION KATL ATLANTA. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- LSRFFC PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 335 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2019 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0112 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W COLUMBUS METROPOLIT 32.52N 84.95W 12/22/2019 M38 MPH MUSCOGEE GA ASOS ASOS STATION KCSG COLUMBUS.
  48. 1 point
    What's the reason for the weird wind bullseye in Atlanta from the NDFD? I thought wind was generally a little more uniform than that. Anyway, these gusts are certainly concerning with a soggy ground.
  49. 1 point
    Just based on how all the models are trending they may be a tad light on the rainfall totals over North GA.
  50. 1 point
    I’m not looking forward to the rain with a house full for Christmas...oh well what can one do
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