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Showing content with the highest reputation on 01/13/2020 in all areas

  1. 5 points
    GFS ensembles still look good at 12z and the EURO has cold air and storms flying around! That is all we can ask for!
  2. 3 points
    Good Monday morning! Back to work for most people today! This is my job. ๐Ÿ™‚ Gotta love it. Well... if it hasn't already started falling, it will shortly. The rain has returned once more. Here's the WPC rainfall through 7 PM Friday Here's the NWS Atlanta tornado survey from the Paulding County tornado Saturday. This is an image of the path, and in the lower left corner on the edge of the blue line, is @LHarkins913 house... that yellow dot. Glad to know they had a plan and went to the basement when the winds got loud. Another important note... I do not believe there was a tornado warning, but I may be wrong. Quick spin up tornadoes can form without warning and then end just as quickly. Sometimes they'll form in between radar scans which makes them difficult to identify, and that was one reason they said to assume every severe thunderstorm could contain a tornado last Saturday . We're still on target for winter to arrive around the 20th, no changes, just more confirmations. ๐Ÿ™‚ Here are the obligatory ensemble maps through the 28th or so. GFS mean and ensembles first, Euro mean and ensembles next. We have a new fresh menu every day for your selection. Take your time. May I get you something to drink while you are perusing the menu? ๐Ÿ™‚ NOT A FORECAST Take the umbrella and waders with you today, they may come in handy! ๐Ÿ™‚ Have a great day!
  3. 3 points
    LOL! That sounds like some former co-workers of mine...if the power went out they'd start shouting "Can we go home?" before the lights were completely out. No thunder or lightning yet here in western Lumpkin county, just periodic Biblical downpours. We'll see what the rest of the day brings...
  4. 3 points
    We just had the power go out in Holly Springs. It is back on now. I did see a large flash and then the gym shook and then the power went out for about 45 mins. Students are now ticked they are not getting to go home.
  5. 3 points
    And as you said earlier, I am more than happy to see some suppression this far out. They typically trend Northwest.
  6. 3 points
    It is on all the models, including the GFS. The flip is the 20th, ignore everything before then. Temp anomalies go below normal then and generally do not come back up through the end of the run. Cold air masses will moderate over time and then be reloaded. And a pattern flip to cold does not guarantee snow. After the 20th the GFS suppresses every wave far to the south, basically zero precip north of I20 for the entire period. This is happening because of the cold press from the north. I'd be surprised to see that many waves in a row beaten down into the Gulf.
  7. 3 points
    i broke open my penny bank and purchased the radarscope app for my phone. I think i am going to have lots of fun!
  8. 3 points
    This was 4:43 PM Saturday.
  9. 3 points
    I want to share all your information with some of my naysayer friends. I think when a person is really interested in weather, you read more and understand a little better how tricky it is to predict. One friend said "we had nothing more than a little rain. All that hype again and nothing." I myself am grateful for all the advanced warnings and I'm thrilled it wasn't worse than it was. The point is - it could have been awful and people needed to know so they could be ready to shelter with little or no warning. I don't think it was hyped from any sources I consult. (Some of the TV folks get a little excited when they are "on location" but they are just entertaining. Case in point: showing puddles in a parking lot with some wind and acting like it was a tsunami...")
  10. 2 points
  11. 2 points
    If you're talking about the Euro there is limited free data out there but this site is the best for viewing it. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro For other models like the GFS I much prefer the tropical tidbits website.
  12. 2 points
  13. 2 points
    @RickyD Down your way RECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL915 AM EST MON JAN 13 2020...DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT ALMA GA......DAILY RECORD HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE SET AT ALMA GA...A DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 66 WAS SET AT ALMA GAYESTERDAY. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 62 SET IN 1972.A DAILY RECORD HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE OF 70 WAS SET AT ALMA GAYESTERDAY. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 65 SET IN 1975.
  14. 2 points
    Yes, there is some around, just spotty. You can see a few recent ones up in Hall, dawson, and Pickens counties.
  15. 2 points
    A few things to remember. The models that most people see are divided into to main areas. Operational (also called deterministic) Ensemble Most people watch the the operational models and both the GFS and Euro run every six hours. The Euro goes to 240 hours, the GFS to 360 Each of those models is one model run, or in other words, run once, every six hours. The ensembles are a blend of many individual runs of a model run. In other words, every six hours the ensembles run, just like the operational with two main differences. The ensemble takes that same starting data that the operational used and that becomes the control run (although the GEFS doesn't really show a control run like the Euro). It then slightly modifies the starting data and reruns the model and it continues to do that for the remaining runs. In the case of the GFS, you have 20 runs of the model, each slightly different. In the case of the Euro, you have 50 runs plus 1 control run. Those are blended together to give you a mean and those are the images I've been showing. At a long range, and really outside of 7 days, your focus should be on the ensembles since they are a blend of runs, not just a single run. The operational models can jump all around until you start getting closer in time, the ensembles are generally more stable since it is a blend. If you read the extended range discussion that I post every morning, you'll see how the WPC will take certain aspects from various models to make a forecast. No model is the gospel, they are all guidance. In order to properly use the models, you have to understand the current pattern and how that guidance "fits" with what the forecasters think will happen. During upcoming pattern changes, there will be big flips in the operational as it hunts in search of "exactly" what that change will look like. The ensembles smooth out those changes and give you a more stable view without all the flips.
  16. 2 points
  17. 2 points
    Iโ€™m gonna go drive around today and try and snap some pics from my neighborhood and the next one over that got hit the worst... Iโ€™ll post them if youโ€™d like...
  18. 2 points
    Thank you... looking those up now!
  19. 2 points
    On my mobile devices, I use Radarscope and I use the Pro version (more features). On my laptop/computers I three different Gibson Ridge products, GR3, GR2A, and GREarth. I also have an Allisonhouse subscription so I get additional data that you can't get on free products.
  20. 2 points
  21. 2 points
    Here what I see. This is the NROT image (rotation). You can see that the entire line was rotating and why it was safe to assume every storm "could" contain a quick spin up tornado. But the green and blue couplet shows the tornado, so it was showing on this particular radar scan. Here's a 3D view of the storm looking southwest to northeast.
  22. 2 points
    I know those quick spin ups are possible but never thought Iโ€™d be front door to one lol absolutely crazy. Iโ€™m just grateful to people like you who do your best to get the word out, way in advance... for preparedness sake. Appreciate all you do Steve!
  23. 2 points
    Here's what I captured. You can see the whole message and all the severe/tornado warnings here, I save them all. ๐Ÿ™‚ http://www.daculaweather.com/4_warning_15-16.php
  24. 1 point
    Really think that 21st-23rd wave is our best shot for now despite both the OP models suppressing it. We'd need a few things to trend our way over time, but as some of those GEFS members showed the possibility is there. I think the subsequent wave may be tough to score on cause it'll probably time up with the relaxation of the first cold shot. Then the cold will reload and we'll get another shot with waves 3/4.
  25. 1 point
    Great stuff Steve! Love this outlook on things. Lots of chances!
  26. 1 point
    Here's the GEFS individual members with precip type. Each frame last 1.5 seconds so it will take a little while to run, but notice the ice and sleet in some of the images.
  27. 1 point
    JB + GFS = cold bias, squared!
  28. 1 point
    Wow! You guys were so lucky!!!
  29. 1 point
    On closer look I'm not sure the storm at the very end would do it for us. Heights are rising ahead of it and there's no real HP to help fight the warm flow out of the gulf. Still a long time for things to change though.
  30. 1 point
    More times than not as we get inside 5 or so days gulf storms have a precedent of making large NW adjustments. Not a hard and fast rule but happens the majority of times.
  31. 1 point
    Is there a free website?
  32. 1 point
    Remind me again why we like storms being suppressed at this range?
  33. 1 point
    Yep I suspect that storm at the very end of the Euro over Texas rolled forward would have given us a good look. The one before it was close too, just suppressed and a late bloomer.
  34. 1 point
    Radar estimated rainfall so far.
  35. 1 point
    Here's the Flash Flood Watch for north Georgia along with the rainfall forecast.
  36. 1 point
    Lightning/Thunder was present in the system that just exited the area of Marietta/Dobbins.
  37. 1 point
    Using Blairsville as an example... Through the 28th, the GFS ensembles show what appears to be 6 different potential period for snow, but what you're probably seeing are differences in the timing of the same system(s). Ideally, you want those individual members to show the same thing, the more they do, the greater the chance of that event happening. So if 5 members out of 20 show snow, you roughly have a 25% chance, 20 out of 20, get out the sleds.
  38. 1 point
    Why isn't it showing in the models? How can the model show all rain all the way up into the mid Atlantic all the way into the last of Jan? That is what gets me about the models. i UNDERSTAND many variables are introduced to see---, but the American model is still inconsistent all together of any cold. lasting more than a day or so, or at least that is what i am seeing per type of precip? Maybe I don't understand the usage of models at all? But the GFS is what James Spann uses to do his video every day.... I know many are talking of other factors saying a pattern change, but what the heck are the models for?
  39. 1 point
    I call this a flip. The new weeklies should be even more pronounced. Old 16 day Euro - No trough anywhere in the US New 12 day Euro - Trough in a favorable location
  40. 1 point
    Awesome! ๐Ÿ™‚ It's worth the money.
  41. 1 point
    That would be great! Thanks!
  42. 1 point
    That's why you watch ensembles, not operational runs. They have little accuracy that far out.
  43. 1 point
    Is there a radar app you recommend? I currently use MyRadar as it seems to give more accurate detail as far as intensity on storms vs TWC & NOAA apps. just goes to show how important it is to be prepared when storms like these come through. Mother Nature snaps her fingers and boom... tornado ๐Ÿ˜‚
  44. 1 point
    Daily runs. Consistency is what I am looking for. There is no cold consistent. Every run is different with the cold being shoved further down the runs
  45. 1 point
    You're watching operational runs right now... that's a no-no.
  46. 1 point
    Me looking at the model this morning.
  47. 1 point
    Someone also shared this with me last night. Quick little spin up. In all itโ€™s little EF0 glory lol...
  48. 1 point
    Steve, yep... no tornado warning. I did receive a newly issued severe thunderstorm warning literally AS IT WAS ALL HAPPENING. I watched the radar on approach... told my husband โ€œhere it comesโ€ and then all hell broke loose! I HONESTLY wondered why Channel 2 wasnโ€™t breaking in on tv, simply for the fact that the storms were entering more metro counties. But they had gone off air I think for the football game that was on? I canโ€™t remember... Im just grateful to have been about as close of a bystander as we could be. No damage to report, but others in my neighborhood had trees down in the path(one of which was on a line... we were powerless for about 6.5 hours)... BUT... I will say, when they say a tornado sounds like a train. They are not lying. ๐Ÿ˜…๐Ÿ˜…๐Ÿ˜… Iโ€™ve never heard anything like that in my life! oh and Steve? Iโ€™ll take GFSp19 for $1000 please!๐Ÿ™‚
  49. 1 point
    Honestly getting there myself and that is a rare place for me to be. Love what I'm seeing on the GFS Ensemble tonight. 21st-24th is starting to look like our sweet spot right now. Here is the average snowfall through the 24th from all 20 members of the suite from today at 12z vs tonight's run. 12z 0z (Tonight's run) So a fairly sizable jump in the mean. Also, looking at the individual panels of the ones that we didn't get snow it was mostly because of suppression, not by it being too warm. Best part about it is that the way things appear to be shaping up for now, this may only be chance #1 of plenty. As always temper expectations, this is 10+ days out. Thing is, I'm not gonna be able to say that much longer.
  50. 1 point
    Respectfully, I don't think it really has. By Christmas time we knew we were in for a few weeks of warm minimum and were desperately hoping it didn't last the rest of winter. We then got a brief reprieve the weekend of the 4th from the ULL dragging down some cold for a few days. The pattern change wasn't on the models at all as recently as the middle of this past week. Many experts had theorized that one was coming but they were on a bit of a limb until around Wednesday night/Thursday or so when the ensembles started keying in. The flip has been locked in on next weekend ever since it first showed up then. It's locked in on approximately the 20th for now, it may get pushed back yet but for now it hasn't moved. We both know reliability in the models isn't great past 7-10 days, but for what it's worth the climate models all have the cold lasting all the way through February.
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