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Showing content with the highest reputation on 02/13/2020 in all areas

  1. 6 points
    I did find my favorite ensemble member
  2. 5 points
    Good morning! Rain is passing through this morning is bringing some heavy rain at times along with some gusty winds, but nothing severe at this point in time. (EDIT: The 3-4 NE georgia counties under the GSP forecast area are under a Severe Thunderstorm right now) There may be a greater chance of severe weather as the line pushes toward the SE but most likely not over north Georgia. We may have a little winter weather on the horizon, no guarantees right now, but if the Euro says it's so, it must be so. ๐Ÿ™‚ At the moment, the GFS doesn't want any part of it, so the battle begins. These are obviously individual model runs and will change, so view these as entertainment purposes only. NOT A FORECAST A little weird but ok... It does remind me of the Snow Jam 2 snowfall with some cold air in place and overrunning moisture from SW to NE. You can see by the thickness levels and their location in this image that it would be cold enough to generate snow. The Euro operational does have ensemble support... But there are lots of different solutions among the ensemble members. We are a week away, so it may get better or it may get worse... no way to know at this point. So we will watch and wait. ๐Ÿ™‚ We will start drying out later today, so that is good news! Hope everyone has a great Thursday!
  3. 5 points
    I'm saving all the images from the Euro and GFS so we can watch the trends over time.
  4. 4 points
    Guess there is a reason they say go big OR go home, cause there's gonna be a lot of people on those interstates not going home if it goes that big lol.
  5. 4 points
    I posted to him this morning. I told him he had a good imagination. Went back to 1993 and the Glenn Burns story. Nobody believed what they saw in the models. The odds were next to impossible to align up and phasing to occur. And now he is willing to say such without any model proof or suggestion?? Imagination. I told him odds were it would happen again.... in 100 years
  6. 4 points
    And ECMWF Ensemble starting to bark a little. As always a needle will need to be threaded but there is definitely a window of potential there.
  7. 3 points
    Basically a Southeast snow-apocalypse with foot plus snows hitting all the major cities lol.
  8. 2 points
    I want to start model tracking already lol
  9. 2 points
  10. 2 points
    Lake Lanier water level data.
  11. 2 points
    Oh definitely! This threat is very real, unlike some we've seen at day 10+ this year. Still might turn sour, as it's a tough pattern to score in. But hey, this past weekend worked out so well its got me feeling optimistic lol.
  12. 2 points
    Another good Euro run. I'd sign off on that exact event right now if I could. Don't wanna get too greedy hoping for a big one.
  13. 2 points
    Just picked up .43 of rain in 8 minutes as the line went through ๐Ÿ˜ณ
  14. 2 points
    The Euro setup is VERY similar to Snow Jam 2
  15. 2 points
    The latest Euro NOT A FORECAST
  16. 1 point
    Still out of range for this but the setup applies. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 103 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2020 Valid 12Z Sun Feb 16 2020 - 12Z Thu Feb 20 2020 1800 UTC Update... Models continue to show some significant differences with the specific evolution of a broad upper trough across the western/central U.S. next week. The ECMWF continues to emphasize the leading shortwave more, resulting in stronger height falls (relative to the GFS) spreading across the Midwest/Great Lakes next Mon-Wed, and a deeper low pressure system across the Midwest/Great Lakes during that time frame. The GFS emphasizes a trailing shortwave, which amplifies/cuts off across the Great Basin/West Coast toward the middle of next week, resulting in a somewhat weaker low pressure system across the Midwest/Great Lakes. The outcome between these scenarios also has implications for temperatures across the central/eastern U.S. toward the middle of next week. The ECMWF idea would be colder across these areas, with more northerly flow from higher latitudes, while the GFS is much more zonal and would potentially be a good bit warmer. As with the overnight issuance, a compromise/blended approach was favored at this time as ensembles showed a good degree of clustering around both of these ideas. Thus, a blend of the 00Z ECMWF/GFS/UKMET was used heavily during days 3-5 (Sun-Tue) for this forecast update, with a shift to greater emphasis on the ECENS/NAEFS ensemble means for days 6-7 (Wed-Thu). Overall, a forecast relatively close to continuity was maintained, and changes were relatively small.
  17. 1 point
    Only 7 days out, I think thatโ€™s good!
  18. 1 point
    Two of my weather apps are showing snow for next Saturday. Donโ€™t worry, I know all about weather apps, which is why I follow you.
  19. 1 point
    CMC sees something too... ๐Ÿค” itโ€™ll be exciting to see how this plays out!
  20. 1 point
    Thanks, I will pass along the information. (Information that I trust!)
  21. 1 point
    LOL! Yes, I covered that in a FB post yesterday (or day before...). It was a bold "prediction" that we would see a "Storm of The Century" type storm between the end of the month and March 10 (or something to that effect). As much as I'd love to see that, those odds are about 0.5% to 1% probability of happening here in the southeast. It takes the perfect ingredients and perfect timing and it is VERY rare. To predict that this far in advance with zero model support is wishcasting plain and simple. Here's the thing. IF a storm like that were to happen, I think March is the best month with the most dynamics. That doesn't mean it's likely.
  22. 1 point
    Imagination. Imagination. ๐Ÿ˜‚
  23. 1 point
    Has anyone heard about people predicting a blizzard for the east coast? I don't even know the timing, a friend of mine read it and asked me about it. Just wondering. ๐Ÿ™‚
  24. 1 point
    Feb 13 2014 1st picture is looking out my front door at Pine tree in the yard. The second is looking behind me at my Uncle's place. If you remember it was a wet snow and laid heavy on everything.
  25. 1 point
    I love seeing the models showing snow to my S, at long leads!!
  26. 1 point
    That makes sense, thank you
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