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  1. 9 points
  2. 9 points
    Good morning! I'm guessing everyone made it through yesterday's weather ok? I hope you're not tired of the rain just yet, because you're going to have at least another week of it. Yes, at least 7 days of rain every day. Here's the additional rainfall that some of you may see. As soon as I get yesterday's rainfall, I'll share it with you. There are still people in Georgia without power this morning, and this what it looked like around 6:30 AM I think everyone is more interested in the next several weeks and what that might bring. My first comment is this... if you are watching the operational runs, you should view those strictly for entertainment. I wouldn't put a lot of stock in those much past 3-5 days right now. You SHOULD be watching the ensembles, and those I'm getting excited about. At this point in time, they are consistently showing winter weather for the southeast for the last ten days of the month. No big snow bombs right now, but those don't generally show up on an ensemble this far out anyway. I'll say this for all you naysayers... if you're not getting excited about these images, you're missing the boat, these are good signals for winter weather. I know... everyone has been burned, especially since we've had several bad winters in a row, but bad winters don't last forever. I suppose by know you understand and I admit, when it comes to winter, I'm a glass half full kinda guy. I'm always optimistic until the weather proves me otherwise. My winter weather interest started at a very young age in Nashville and I use to track winter storms before most of you were born. I was tracking winter storms when Pat Sajak was doing the weather on the local TV station in Nashville, that's how far back I go! πŸ™‚ So you can take all of these with a grain of salt, just keep that salt off my roads when the snow hits. I want my fun to last. πŸ™‚ Notice that some of those individual ensemble members are taking a dump over north Georgia. Remember that. πŸ˜‰ Don't say I didn't warn you. πŸ˜‰ I will be taking snow orders whenever you are ready, just choose your number from the menu! πŸ˜€ The chef is ready to stir some things up! ❄️ I'm sorry you will have a dreary 7 day period ahead of you, but look at it this way. It's the things that are coming at the end of the period that will be the reward. As humans, we have a desire to want to control things, even those things that are out of our control, and then we get upset when they don't work out the way we want. Relax and release. Going through the death of both my parents 46 days apart helped me to understand that, it's all God's timing not ours. Be patient, have faith, and believe. πŸ˜‡ I hope everyone has a great Sunday!
  3. 8 points
    I got it. Tried to stop myself from even looking but couldn't resist lol *DEFINITELY NOT A FORECAST* I'm not even exaggerating when I say that was maybe the most beautiful storm I've ever seen modeled. Just absolute perfection. Shame it's so far out in time. But still positive signs at just how much potential exists going forward. This is exactly what I was talking about with hoping that maybe our 2nd cold shot can setup the trough in a better position.
  4. 8 points
    Good Monday morning! Did everyone get some high winds last night? Fun huh? πŸ™‚ The sun will return today and it will be visible through New Years day (darker at night...). After that, the rain returns. Here's what the big picture looks like this morning. The front has cleared the north Georgia area and is pressing southeast at the moment, you can see the cooler and drier air to our west and northwest As of today, I officially declare a Winter Weather Watch for January 6-9 time period. πŸ™‚ Yes, I have that power. πŸ˜› The models have been consistently pointing to the possibility of winter weather around that period and I think it is safe to say we can at least talk about it. Let me show you what I'm talking about. The 6-9th is next Tuesday-Thursday. Being this far out, I cannot offer any specifics right now, so if you ask me about your backyard I'll refer you to the ensemble images. For now, we won't get into details like setup etc, just probabilities. So much will change between now and then, that specific details are not important. And speaking of the ensembles, let's look at those first. The first two images are the GFS and Euro ensemble mean. The GFS is more bullish than the Euro, but even the Euro has flakes of snow down to the Gulf coast. The individual ensemble members provide a little more insight as to the possibilities. Keep in mind, the images above are averages of the respective images below. Notice that some of the individual members give us a little thumping of snow. Here's a sample look at Blairsville. Each row in this image matches a corresponding image above. Notice that almost all members show some snow, with some more than others. Actually, there are three that don't show any around the time period we're focused on, so 17 out of 20 show some winter weather for Blairsville at this point. Watching this evolve should be fun but I wouldn't start getting excited just yet. 7-10 days away means there will be lots and lots of changes between now and then. And remember... none of this is a forecast. For me, half the fun is just tracking winter weather. Tracking winter weather is much like college football. You've been following your favorite team that you really have high hopes for (storm). Over the season the team wins some games and loses some games, but you still have hope they'll make it to a bowl game (model roller coaster). The excitement builds as the time gets closer. But there are so many things that can go wrong along the way. Finally the big day comes and the play by play is exciting. The game can go two ways, good or bad, sometimes it's a slam dunk no question it's going great, and others it's no question it's not going well at all. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Sometimes you win big and other times it's a miserable fail. So goes the snow season in Georgia, there are no guarantees. But what is encouraging is the models are seeing the cold and seeing the moisture... so we hope for the perfect timing of the two and what that might mean for us. I hope everyone enjoys the day! Sunny skies and cool temperatures are welcomed after the warm Christmas weather. Winter is coming... sit back and watch. πŸ™‚
  5. 8 points
    Good Monday morning! Let's get right to it! Can you say active period? Close calls? The Euro operational is the most bullish at the moment but the GFS ensemble is right there with it. And that's just this week. πŸ™‚ The weekend is a totally different system that we'll need to watch. If you read the morning Extended Forecast Discussion from the WPC, you'll notice how the models have widely varying solutions right now, so before we start looking too closely, we need to wait a day or three and see how things evolve. As long as we can keep the rain train going, our winter weather chances rise up a little bit. Can I get a "Rise Up!". πŸ™‚ I hope everyone has a great Monday and a great work week. Hang in there teachers.... you're break is coming soon!
  6. 8 points
    Good Wednesday morning! Does it feel a little cooler out there this morning? Here's a look at temps and dewpoints. A little cooler and drier air has filtered in from the NW this morning. Don't get used to it though. Not this weekend, but next (Oct 5), you will feel fall. Both the GFS and Euro ensembles are locked in step right now, showing a 15 (GFS) - 20 (Euro) degree drop in temperatures that weekend. I know it can't come soon enough, but it's coming. This chart is the GFS for Lawrenceville. On Oct 9th, the Euro ensembles are showing a high of 70 in Lawrenceville, 63 in Blairsville, and 69 in Dalton. πŸ™‚ Does that put a big smile on your face? πŸ™‚ Let's hope that comes with rain, but at this point, I'll take what I can get. The atmosphere is stirring... and it looks like fall may arrive in one big swoop. I can't wait. πŸ™‚ Hope everyone has a great day!
  7. 7 points
    Good morning! Today will be a transition day as the sun goes back behind the clouds and the rain returns. The bigger picture this morning shows the rain off to our west while moisture at the higher levels starts streaming in. There is a chance that some may see a little rain today, but generally the rain will hold off until the early morning hours on Monday. The first image is rainfall through 7 PM Monday and the second image goes through 7 AM Thursday. Snow. The other four letter word. πŸ™‚ The models are still showing some potential for some very light snow/flurries across the top tier of counties in Georgia, and the resulting snow would be similar to the last event, maybe a little less as there just isn't a lot of moisture to work with. NOT A FORECAST I'll be keeping an eye on it in case there are some slight changes but I wouldn't expect anything big. The low responsible for the weather will be passing to our west, so our only hope is wrap around moisture as the low departs, and that never works out too well for us here. Snow is in the grids as far south as my house in Gwinnett, so we'll see how it goes. We will be getting colder though. Temperature anomalies go from this on Tuesday morning... To this on Thursday morning. Thursday AM Friday AM Saturday AM Sunday AM On Monday, Florida looks like s sore thumb with temperatures almost 20 degrees below normal. So get out and enjoy what's left of the sunshine, it won't be around for long today and you probably won't see it again until next Thursday and Friday! I hope everyone has a great Sunday! I will be celebrating another year on this planet and another lap around the sun today, and I am truly blessed to be doing this for you. Thank you for following me while I journey through this life! πŸ˜‡ πŸŽ‚
  8. 7 points
    Good Saturday morning! A cool morning in store for all but the moisture is lifting away and after the clouds clear, we should have a pretty nice weekend in store. Looking at the week ahead, it appears we'll have three distinct chances for precipitation, and at least a couple of those will bring a chance for some light wintry mix, especially over the mountain areas. Here's what Steven Nelson at the Atlanta NWS office has to say about it. Honestly, I'd show you some images but I'm just not seeing anything to show you right now. And I'll also be honest in the fact that I'm not seeing any real cold that will bring winter weather. Unless the firehose flow from the Pacific shuts down, I'm not seeing a good chance for winter weather for our area, and right now that is not happening. πŸ˜” If it's going to snow, it will snow while I'm down in Sarasota the week after next (2nd-7th). πŸ˜€ Count on it. 😜 So we'll watch and wait, that's all we can do. Meanwhile, we may have some VERY light and very brief mixed precip chance just to tease you and make you sad. Have a great Saturday!
  9. 7 points
  10. 7 points
    Winter is coming! Winter is coming! Winter is coming! πŸŽβ„οΈ
  11. 7 points
    Ok, probably my last post for the night. The 11 pm update will probably show a CAT5 hurricane, we shall see. And if you've followed Cranky, then you know we'll have a much better idea in the morning as to the impacts from Dorian. I'll probably be up around 2-3 to check out the 00z model runs, so if anyone likes a model party... I'll be here!
  12. 6 points
    I've got a lot of miles on me. The earth travels 584,000,000 miles in a year in its trek around the sun. I've been 37,960,000,000 miles. No need for anyone to do any calculations... 😜 I go around the sun fast. πŸ™‚
  13. 6 points
    Good morning! Most people are waking up to foggy conditions this morning, and the fog may hand on for a while, so if you have to be out and about, drive carefully and turn on your lights. Here's a water vapor look along with the 500 mb heights. You can't get much more of a zonal flow than that. If you wonder where the cold is, it's all bottled up over the Arctic. Well see mostly cloudy skies today, there could be some sun in places after the fog lifts, but a few showers are not out of the question. The next real wave of rain returns tomorrow. I guess you saw that... the flurries part. It's possible, but whatever falls won't be much. Here's what the models think. NOT A FORECAST The NAM 12km sees some snow but also some sleet, it's the only one showing that right now. The Canadian has the most. And the GFS and Euro have the least. Still can still change. Remember the other day when it all disappeared and I said that it may come back. What we're seeing now may be it, it may disappear again, or it may have more snow. With marginal events you sometimes don't truly know under the event gets underway. The February 8th snow was like that. No one thought we'd see that much snow but you see what happened. I'm NOT saying this will do the same thing, but there is always that possibility here in Georgia. Regardless of whether someone sees snow, everyone will see rain, and here is the WPC rainfall forecast for the next 7 days. We'll continue to watch for any changes in what the models show, we still have 3-4 days for things to evolve. Have a great Monday!
  14. 6 points
    I did find my favorite ensemble member
  15. 6 points
    Good morning!!! How about that snow? πŸ™‚ As dumb as this sounds, I feel like the pressure is gone now. We had a pretty long stretch going and I know everyone was getting frustrated. I'll have the final Georgia now totals a little later, but here's a look at the current CoCoRaHS measurements. Most of north Georgia had more snow than the Smokies. πŸ™‚ Most of the snow will be gone today and then we prepare for our next weather system arriving Monday. Pay attention to the weather next week. Here's the Weather Prediction Center's Excessive Rainfall Discussion and map. The WPC rainfall amounts over the next 7 days look like this. Not pretty. This area in NW Georgia is already in some form of flood stage, and the heavier axis of rain will fall in that area again. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_river_forecast.php Flash Flood Guidance says it won't take much rain to push any area into a Flash Flooding situation. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_flash_flood_guidance.php NWS Atlanta's thoughts: Here are the counties in the Flood Watch That's it for now. Be careful if you have to get out this morning, especially in those areas that dropped below freezing last night. Whatever is frozen should melt pretty quickly today, so conditions should be improving. Have a great Sunday!
  16. 6 points
    For those that haven't seen the dream snow, here it is. I feel guilty posting it. ABSOLUTELY NOT A FORECAST πŸ™‚
  17. 6 points
    No, winter is not over. Just snow weenies jumping off the cliff. 😜🀣
  18. 6 points
    Good morning to everyone! Let's get right to the severe weather outlook for today. Here's a current look at the line of thunderstorms. At 5:31 am there was (1) tornado warning, (11) severe thunderstorm warnings, and (16) flash flood warnings. The ind arrows the point at about 11 o'clock are surface winds, the ones that point around 1 o'clock are 500 mb winds. It's that twist or rotation of the winds with increasing heights that helps kick off tornadoes. The good new is that the "Enhanced Risk" area has been pulled back west and is no longer in Georgia. There... that wasn't too bad was it. πŸ™‚ Here's a look at the STP or Significant Tornado Parameter. Notice how the system starts to lose strength and intensity as it gets into Georgia. Here are the thoughts from the Atlanta NWS. Keep in mind that if you live in Alabama, your chances for severe are much greater than here in Georgia. For those in AL, this is BMX Again, winds appear to be the primary threat with gust to 70 mph, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Stay close to the TV/phone/radio/whatever method you choose (have more than one) to receive weather warnings. I'll be following and making updates all day and tonight, so I hope you'll check back for the latest updates. Things are starting to get stirred up, and it's looking more and more like winter is finally on the doorstep. Here's a look at some of the ensembles to get your winter excitement kicked off. We're still 7-10 days away, so it give us a long range view of the potential for some winter weather in the south. Remember, these are ensembles and therefore a blend of a bunch of model runs. The images of the individual members gives a preview of what "could" happen given the right setup. The first three images are the ensemble means. So nothing specific at the moment, but lots of potential showing up this far out. I'm starting to get fired up. πŸ™‚ So check back with me throughout the day for any updates to the severe weather threat. Have a great and safe Saturday!
  19. 6 points
    Good Friday morning! You may be seeing a few light showers this morning as a wave of moisture comes riding through in advance of a very weak cold front. Rain will be very light, so nothing to really mess up the day. Sunday will be cool as a weak wedge will be in place, so an increasing chance for showers will help to keep the temperatures down. Beginning Monday we'll start to see increasing chances for rain. Ahhh... not the big ❄️ we're looking for. πŸ™‚ I guess you saw my post about the 1886 snow I posted this morning on FB? If not, here it is again. I think that we're long overdue a snow dump like this one, so I think I'll pick this year for another one. πŸ€ͺ You in? Next weekend is the interesting time period, and yet we still don't know what might happen, but the WPC alluded to the pattern in the morning extended discussion: This morning the Euro brings a deep low across the southeast, and for some folks in the mountain, 5-6" of snow. It's just the operational run, so we take that with a grain of salt at the moment. Instead, we need to check out the ensembles. As you know, the Euro has 50 ensemble members and a control run and here's a look at all of them, it goes through december 21st. To be clear, this is obviously not a forecast, but it does give you an idea as to the variability in between the different ensemble members. In the perfect world, they would all look the same and would show a foot of snow over us. πŸ˜€ But the more they look the same, the greater the probability that a particular scenario might happen. NOT A FORECAST If you figure the mean of those runs, you end up with this. This is the ensemble mean. Again, this covers a large period and much can and will change, but it give you an idea that we are getting to a good time period for winter weather. While we're playing, here's an image that uses the Bering Sea Rule. This would be for December 25. This is the current forecast map for the north Pacific Ocean. Overlaid is a map of the US. The Bering Sea Rule says that in about 19 days, the general pattern you see right now over the Bering Sea may be seen over the US. More information about the rule is here: https://www.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2017/1765428/ Thanks to the Crankweatherguy for providing the information on how to create this image. So enjoy the weather you have today! I think the grey skies make it look and feel more like winter. β„οΈπŸ™‚ Have a great Friday!
  20. 6 points
    Good morning to all! A few more nice days in store for us, so there isn't too much to talk about this morning. Here at the house, I ended November about 0.7ΒΊ F below my nine year average and as of this morning, 0.2ΒΊ F above for December. Since the December temperatures trend downward, 0.2 above the ENTIRE December average is pretty cold. Here are the normal highs and lows for today The middle of the month is starting to get very interesting, and the models are spitting out a lot of different solutions. This mornings 06z GFS brings a deep cutoff low down along the Gulf, and in the winter, those can be golden for us. We've been seeing a LOT of cutoff lows out over the southwest this fall, and if that trend continues into winter.... watch out. This is the 06Z (left and most recent) and 00z (right) GFS. There is some ensemble support for a deep trough over the east. So we watch and wait. Kinda like watching paint dry. πŸ™‚ I hope everyone enjoys the day and the weather! Winter is right around the corner!
  21. 5 points
    Good morning! As you have probably noticed, the rain has returned this morning. I know... you're most favorite thing right now. πŸ˜› WPC rainfall through tuesday 7 PM But winter is not over just yet, and there are several chances, minor as they may be, for some winter precipitation across the north Georgia mountains. As usual, the GFS and Canadian show more snow and the Euro less. This situation will not be much different than the other two as we're counting on wrap around moisture to bring the snow. And again, the snow will be confined to the higher elevations of the mountains. These are the GFS, Canadian, and Euro ensembles through Sunday. NOT A FORECAST We going to keep watching both systems, we are still days away, especially for the weekend version, so there will be changes. It will be getting much cooler though, and from Thursday through Monday, we'll see temperatures well below normal. The three major models in principle. So rain today and tomorrow, then drying out and cooling off with several minor chances of winter precip for the far north. I know this rain makes you feel right at home. πŸ™‚ Have a great Monday!
  22. 5 points
    Fox 5 mentioned the lake effect potential. Pretty cool if it verifies. Also, can I get a 2 hour delay tomorrow?!
  23. 5 points
    Snow at Woody Gap. GDOTs been here.
  24. 5 points
    Good morning! A little cooler and drier start to the day this morning compared to what we've had for a while. Temperatures are in the low 30's to upper 20's and I'm running about 22 degrees lower than at this time yesterday. It will be sunny and cool today and tomorrow but the rain returns again starting during the day on Sunday and continues on through the end of next week. 7 day rainfall totals look like this. Yesterday the Euro seemed to have latched onto a potential winter weather event late next week, but this morning it has lost it. Instead, the GFS now sees something. Temperatures are marginal even above the surface although the Euro is colder than the GFS. It looks like a wedge but the pressures don't match. The flow is very zonal so I'm not really sure why it thinks it will snow as much as it shows. NOT A FORECAST So there is still a glimmer of hope, but nothing to write home about right now. I'm going to take a little bit of a break today since it will be nice and sunny! I think we're headed up to Gibbs Gardens tomorrow to see the flowers, they open for the season today. I've never been there but we got a couple of season passes for this year since our future house will be about 9 miles away, so it makes it real convenient. πŸ™‚ Get out and enjoy some rain free weather for a few days. Yes, it will be a little cool but it's winter so it's suppose to be! Have a great start to the weekend!
  25. 5 points
    Good morning! Rain is passing through this morning is bringing some heavy rain at times along with some gusty winds, but nothing severe at this point in time. (EDIT: The 3-4 NE georgia counties under the GSP forecast area are under a Severe Thunderstorm right now) There may be a greater chance of severe weather as the line pushes toward the SE but most likely not over north Georgia. We may have a little winter weather on the horizon, no guarantees right now, but if the Euro says it's so, it must be so. πŸ™‚ At the moment, the GFS doesn't want any part of it, so the battle begins. These are obviously individual model runs and will change, so view these as entertainment purposes only. NOT A FORECAST A little weird but ok... It does remind me of the Snow Jam 2 snowfall with some cold air in place and overrunning moisture from SW to NE. You can see by the thickness levels and their location in this image that it would be cold enough to generate snow. The Euro operational does have ensemble support... But there are lots of different solutions among the ensemble members. We are a week away, so it may get better or it may get worse... no way to know at this point. So we will watch and wait. πŸ™‚ We will start drying out later today, so that is good news! Hope everyone has a great Thursday!
  26. 5 points
    I'm saving all the images from the Euro and GFS so we can watch the trends over time.
  27. 5 points
    The way these last several days have gone, this seems appropriate...
  28. 5 points
    I’m at home sick with the flu so I haven’t been outside much so sorry for the poor quality of the video. It has actually started snowing lightly again. IMG_4674.MOV
  29. 5 points
    I really hope we can get next weekend to work. I'm not very optimistic about it, but that's the only workable look we have right now. I'm afraid if it doesn't work out, our goose may just be cooked. The weeklies look really bad past that point. This snowless streak is wearing on me and has me wanting to move into the NC mountains now lol. Probably sounds silly to those of you to the south of me who regularly go through years long periods with no snow, but this is one of if not the longest streaks in my lifetime and I don't much like it lol. Hopefully I'm just being dramatic and we get buried sometime between now and mid March, but I'm not holding my breath.
  30. 5 points
    Ok- You know me I am the pessimist BUTβ€”β€” I am coming off the ledge and doing a 180 We have the pattern with the lows diving south along the coast so I am going all out Optimistic and saying A good snow for Georgia by 15th of February.
  31. 5 points
    A few nice sunrise images from the Smokies this morning.
  32. 5 points
    GFS ensembles still look good at 12z and the EURO has cold air and storms flying around! That is all we can ask for!
  33. 5 points
    Despite all my frequent naysaying I am definitely excited about the next few weeks. I genuinely believe that we may soon have something to track for the 20th-25th time frame. That being said the reason I continue to try my best to temper my own excitement is that the ensembles looked incredible over and over last year only to eventually abandon us.
  34. 5 points
    My 8 year old loves all things weather. He’s wearing his favorite gift from Christmas! He followed yesterday’s events all day until the weather got here - and then he was hiding under a blanket, lol. He’s a meteorologist in progress, ha ha!
  35. 5 points
    I am praying for everyone, please stay safe, and thanks for helping me calm dowm, you all rock!
  36. 5 points
    Yes, the models are trending cold. The teleconnections for the EPO/AO/NAO are trending toward negative/into negative territory. Add to that the models are indicating changes in the stratosphere. It's starting to look like the flip that we've been waiting for. We'll see.
  37. 5 points
    You are noticeably excited about the possibility of the white stuff!! It’s contagious πŸ˜†
  38. 5 points
    Good morning! Got rain? It's raining pretty hard here at the house this morning, It's cold where the rain is falling, it's down to 35 degrees here at the house. Here are the forecast rainfall totals through 7 AM Sunday morning. We'll have a dry day on Sunday before the rain returns again. Speaking of temperatures, here is a look at the last 24 hour low temps from various regions in the Northern Hemisphere. Link to page Northern Hemisphere Canada United States You can see that we are very mild compared to other parts of the world at the moment, and you can also see that there is plenty of cold that's just waiting to be unleashed. πŸ™‚ Enjoy this rainy Friday the best you can! A cold rain is not the outdoor weather I have fun in, but if we could drop this temp down another 5 degrees.... I'd be in business! Have a great Friday!
  39. 5 points
    It’s like we have seen this before 🀨
  40. 5 points
    Euro coming in line with the rest. May have something here to start a thread on soon
  41. 5 points
    That's it. For me, it's fun to track this stuff. It's like following little clues that may or may not lead to a treasure. πŸ™‚ It's just fun. And yes, it can be disappointing right up until the moment the event is suppose to happen. But you have those other times when everything falls into place and those winter dreams come true. I guess here in Georgia we're always searching for that pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. πŸ™‚
  42. 5 points
    Good Sunday morning! Saturday's weather turned out pretty nice and today and most of tomorrow will be the same. There maybe some clouds and a little light rain overnight but nothing to write home about. The big map (water vapor and 500 mb heights) this morning shows a pair of upper level lows, one near the west coast and one near the east coast with a trough digging across the central US. The upper New England states have some pretty cold temperatures this morning with many locations in the single digits. Our next "real" chance for rain will be toward the end of next week. Looking ahead toward Thanksgiving, this is meteorologist Larry Cosgrove... Most all the models now keep the below normal temperatures through at least the Thanksgiving period. And... looking ahead further... Weatherbell took a look at all of the cold Novembers (like this one) back to 1980 and then looked at the temp anomalies for Dec-Mar and it came out like this. Ironically, many of the analog years that people are looking at came out like this. So winter is approaching, the multitude of signs are looking good, and I think based on what we're seeing at the present moment, we are going to have an excellent chance for a good winter across north Georgia. The presence of all of the upper level lows, assuming they continue, gives us increased chances for a winter storm across the southeast. Who is ready? πŸ™‚ Ready or not... winter is coming! I hope everyone has a very awesome Sunday! Winter begins in 34 Days a wind has blown the rain away and blown the sky away and all the leaves away, and the trees stand. I think i too have known autumn too long.–E. E. Cummings (1894–1962)
  43. 5 points
    Good Monday morning! Transition day today as our next system comes sliding in later this afternoon and tonight. First, let's take a look at the big picture this morning. Those purple box lines in and around the rain are Tornado Watches and the red boxes are Severe Thunderstorm Warnings, so ongoing active weather this morning. Here's the SPC Day 1 and 2 (Mon/Tue) Severe Weather Outlook for the southeast. These are the thoughts from the Atlanta NWS about today's weather. The SPC only talks briefly about our side of town as most of the severe weather is well to our west today. So while there may be some severe thunderstorms around, they will be very isolated and no tornadoes are expected. Wind will be the biggest threat. Day 1 Tornado Outlook Day 1 Wind Outlook After the front pushes through tomorrow, nice fall like temperatures return for a day or two and then we head back to the unsettled weather that I was mentioning yesterday. It's after Thursday when our weather will take a turn toward a more active weather pattern for Friday and into the weekend. The Weather Prediction Center was discussing the potential for "southern stream separation" yesterday and again in their Extended Forecast Discussion today. The separation they refer to is the possibility of an upper low separating itself from the northern stream flow and slowly meandering across the southern part of the US on a NE track that takes it just to our west. That possibility raises concerns for heavy rainfall for us in Georgia as it leaves us on the wetter side of the storm. In the Model Diagnostic Discussion, the WPC says this. At the moment it appears that the southeast has the potential for a heavy rain event this weekend and the Atlanta NWS is starting to think the same thing. The track will determine where the most rain will fall, and as you have seen, it tends to change as the time gets closer, but here is the latest 7 day rainfall forecast from the Weather Prediction Center. Keep in mind, this will be an evolving system for the next 3-4 days, so will be watching the trends. That's it for now. In the time it took me to type all of this, a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued. The weather will be very active today and I'll have updates for our area as necessary. Again, not expecting any big severe weather event for us, maybe an isolated severe thunderstorm and no tornadoes. Have a great Monday! πŸ™‚ Winter begins in 62 days... October's face, benign and mellow, Turns nuts to brown and leaves to yellow; But (like the Scorpion, sting in tail) He ends with frost and scourging hail.–Jan Struther (1901–53)
  44. 5 points
    Good morning! It's Hump Day!!! Another glorious day in store today as well as tomorrow. High clouds and temps in the low 80's make for a great spring day! The rain does return Thursday night and into Friday, but nothing severe in the forecast. There really isn't a lot to talk about as far as the weather goes right now, we're in a typical end of spring pattern. The severe weather season for north Georgia is starting to fade like the pollen. I have a new page that shows the chances for the various modes of severe weather based on past history from the SPC, and the maps displayed are for the current date. Check it out. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spc_today_climo.php If you'd like to read the summary of last Friday's severe weather system that moved through, here's the link from the Atlanta NWS office: April 19 Severe Weather Summary As far as the long term outlook goes... the models are inconsistent. πŸ™‚ I have to share this picture with you. This bird apparently didn't know there was a window there... 😯 Hope you have a better day than the bird!!! 😜
  45. 5 points
    Good Thursday morning! You've almost made it to the end of the week! Here in Gwinnett, there are 29 more "school" days left (with the children), and teachers are counting down... πŸ˜‰ I know that some in the media have been discussing the possibility of severe weather on Sunday. Yes, there is a chance. But I also don't believe that it does a lot of good to play up the fears that some have about severe weather. About 1 out of 10 people have severe anxieties/fears about tornadoes, and those fears extend to thunder and lightning. Just watch your dog sometime during a thunderstorm if you don't believe it. I try to play down the severe weather threat until I know for a fact what and where that threat is. To broad brush a severe potential days in advance without knowing specifics is like crying wolf. The only thing that accomplishes is making people more fearful and that's not what I'm trying to do. I DO want you to be aware of the potential and be prepared, but certainly not fearful. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lilapsophobia) So... let's look at what the experts are saying first... as always, the bold and font colors are my own highlights. Storm Prediction Center Day 4-8 Outlook (Day 3 is here) SPC Severe Probabilities NWS Atlanta Discussion (Find this here at DaculaWeather.com and on this site here) Grabbed a few images from the CIPS Analog Guidance showing the the closest matches to past setups, and based on what the models are showing now, the majority of severe will be over LA/MS/AL. We are still pretty far out for specifics, so a couple more days are needed to really hone in on the details about what "might" happen where. % of the top 15 analogs that had >1 tornado report within 110 km of any point. % of the top 15 analogs that had >1 severe weather report within 110 km of any point. Before Sunday gets here, we have rain returning to the forecast starting later this evening. Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) Hope everyone has a great Thursday!
  46. 5 points
    Good Friday morning to 'ya! It's always nice to start off the month on a Friday. πŸ™‚ I'd play another rainy day song but I've already played them all. πŸ˜‰ You know the drill... off and on showers for today, some thunderstorms for tomorrow. Here's the latest from the Atlanta NWS office. Here is the next 72 hour rainfall forecast We'll be dropping down into the 20's for 3 nights or so, but nothing to terribly cold for us even though it will be well below normal. Here are the normal highs/lows for this week, and below that are the anomalies. Normal High/Low Temperatures Monday (Low/High Anomaly) Tuesday (Low/High Anomaly) Wednesday (Low/High Anomaly) Thursday (Low/High Anomaly) As you can also see, the high anomalies are greater than the cold anomalies. Enjoy the precip, enjoy the cold, just don't expect to enjoy them at the same time. πŸ™‚ Unless we happen to get a storm of the century, after this cold snap, I officially declare winter to be dead!
  47. 4 points
    I've got the best followers a person could ask for! πŸ™‚ Thanks to everyone!
  48. 4 points
    Good morning! Light rain falling across north Georgia this morning but the heavier area is to our south for a change. I know... no one cares about the rain at this point. πŸ™‚ As for Thursday, I think a few of the counties across the top of north Georgia are going to see some of the white stuff, especially across the higher peaks of the mountains. πŸ™‚ The overnight model runs all seem to be in closer agreement as to what may happen, and If it does snow, it certainly won't be much. The temperatures just don't quite get to where they need to be to get any meaningful winter precipitation. 850 mb temps are above freezing part part of the time the models are showing snow, so that's not a good sign for seeing the white stuff falling to the ground. We're now within range of some of the higher resolution models such as the NAM 3km, and it's bringing an inch or so to the two top rows of counties. NOT A FORECAST It never gets cold enough at the surface on the Euro to bring anything meaningful, and even the ensemble is meh. NOT A FORECAST Here are the temps for Blairsville from the Euro ensembles and you can see that there may only be a very brief window of opportunity. Based on what I've seen of the overnight runs, the top two counties have a chance to see some flurries and maybe even some snow that sticks to elevated surfaces, but the temperature profiles just aren't as good as the last system we experienced, so I don't expect too much in the way of snow. NWS Atlanta has the same thoughts. As for today... Rainfall amounts through 7 PM Thursday look like this. Sorry I don't have news of a big snowstorm, just tryin' to keep it real. I love snow as much as the next person, but unfortunately, me wishing for it won't make it happen. We'll keep watching it for any changes in terms of profile temperatures as we get closer, as those are the hangups right now. As always, check back for the latest updates! I hope everyone has a great Tuesday! Stay dry! πŸ™‚
  49. 4 points
    12pm GFS is giving us a glimmer of hope.
  50. 4 points
    Moon over the Smokies tonight.
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