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Showing content with the highest reputation since 11/16/2019 in all areas

  1. 5 points
    Itโ€™s like we have seen this before ๐Ÿคจ
  2. 5 points
    Good Sunday morning! Saturday's weather turned out pretty nice and today and most of tomorrow will be the same. There maybe some clouds and a little light rain overnight but nothing to write home about. The big map (water vapor and 500 mb heights) this morning shows a pair of upper level lows, one near the west coast and one near the east coast with a trough digging across the central US. The upper New England states have some pretty cold temperatures this morning with many locations in the single digits. Our next "real" chance for rain will be toward the end of next week. Looking ahead toward Thanksgiving, this is meteorologist Larry Cosgrove... Most all the models now keep the below normal temperatures through at least the Thanksgiving period. And... looking ahead further... Weatherbell took a look at all of the cold Novembers (like this one) back to 1980 and then looked at the temp anomalies for Dec-Mar and it came out like this. Ironically, many of the analog years that people are looking at came out like this. So winter is approaching, the multitude of signs are looking good, and I think based on what we're seeing at the present moment, we are going to have an excellent chance for a good winter across north Georgia. The presence of all of the upper level lows, assuming they continue, gives us increased chances for a winter storm across the southeast. Who is ready? ๐Ÿ™‚ Ready or not... winter is coming! I hope everyone has a very awesome Sunday! Winter begins in 34 Days a wind has blown the rain away and blown the sky away and all the leaves away, and the trees stand. I think i too have known autumn too long.โ€“E. E. Cummings (1894โ€“1962)
  3. 3 points
    For now that's probably best treated as an outlier. It's like 12-18 hours faster than the previous run. Run to run differences that large shows the models just don't have a handle yet. I'd rather skip the ice anyway, so if that happens, I hope it trends colder.
  4. 3 points
    Albeit the GFS was still close to something. Really nice cold in the days leading up to the system. If that HP could just slow down by 12-24 hours then it would work. Hence why the +AO and +NAO are culprits by just allowing that HP to just scream out to sea ahead of the gulf low development.
  5. 3 points
    Yeah, I think we are in for a lot interesting future runs and probably some close calls in the near future.
  6. 3 points
    I just love this time of year though. Even if this turns out to be a non event... I live for the excitement of it all. it feeds my inner weather nerd. ๐Ÿ˜‚
  7. 3 points
    Good Monday morning! I know many of the teachers are off today while other people have a few more days to work before the Thanksgiving holiday. The week will be mild as we are trapped in a progressive zonal flow where the upper level steering currents are moving west to east, and those winds will be bringing several chances for rain through the weekend. Before we get to next week, the Atlanta NWS office has this to say about this current week and Thanksgiving. So not a bad Thanksgiving. No snow and no severe weather help to keep things pretty safe weather-wise. But this mild period must come to an end, so look for the weather to shift gears over the weekend. And cold it gets. Here are a look at the temp anomalies as well as temperatures at 1 PM Monday (GFS and Euro) following the frontal passage. Great way to start meteorological winter! ๐Ÿ™‚ Needless to say, it will be much cooler to start December. I hope everyone has a great day today and if you're traveling, please be safe! ๐Ÿ™‚ Have a great day! Winter begins in 26 or 6 days. ๐Ÿ™‚ I think in 6 you'll come around to my way of thinking. ๐ŸŒก๏ธโ„๏ธ๐Ÿคถ๐ŸŽ…โ›ท๏ธ
  8. 2 points
  9. 2 points
    That run wasn't realistic anyway. But it's actually still there and honestly a bit better. The low doesn't cut west of the Apps at least, even if it is 500 miles too far north. But you will literally never get consistency on that kind of lead time.
  10. 2 points
    Just posted for Jasper, I'll take it! Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 314 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019 GAZ001>009-011>016-111200- Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns- Chattooga-Gordon-Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-White- 314 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019 ...RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA... A wintry mix of snow and rain will be possible across the higher elevations of north Georgia overnight. Some light accumulations between one and two tenths of an inch are possible...mainly at elevations between 1000 feet and 2000 feet. At elevations above 2000 feet, some locally higher accumulations are possible ranging from half an inch up to an inch. Any snow accumulations will be on grassy or elevated surfaces.
  11. 2 points
    Good morning to everyone! Our friend the wedge is starting to build in this morning, this first water vapor image show temperatures, the next one shows dewpoints. You can see the cooler and drier air moving in from North Carolina. Today will be about 10ยบ cooler than yesterday will plenty of clouds around. Moisture in increase as the day goes one and by later this evening we should see a few upslope showers across north Georgia. The rain chances increase into Monday and Tuesday in advance of a cold front, and north Georgia could see 1-2" of rainfall before the front passes through on Wednesday. Temperatures Dewpoints There will be a chance of rain all week long and into the weekend, and it's going to make for a messy week of weather. As an example.. let's look at what the Euro thinks 10 am Friday will be like. Yes... just barely above freezing with rain. You wanted winter in Georgia and there it is! ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ˜› This is the rainfall forecast through 7 PM Wednesday. If we take that out to 7 AM Sunday, it looks like this. Be happy we have moisture around, all we need now is a little colder air and we'll be in business. I think winter is shaping up to be a good one! Have a great Sunday!
  12. 2 points
    Let's all remember 2 years ago today lol this was NE of Mineral Bluff in Fanning County.
  13. 2 points
    It has trended warmer but the models are now in somewhat of agreement. The cold air will be available and the moisture, just timing and how the energy moves
  14. 2 points
    Brad Panovich has a good video here to watch
  15. 2 points
    Here's the 06Z Euro ensemble, it's still running so it's this far out (next Wed). Remember, these are the mean values from 51 individual model runs. This is the 500 mb anomalies. Notice the deep trough over the eastern US and the little trailing blob of blue. One Euro bias is to hold back energy and it wouldn't surprise me if the trough and that little blob are eventually merged into a stronger trough at some point. These are 850 mb temps, if the ensembles are correct, the northern part of the central US will see some of the coldest temp anomalies anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere.
  16. 2 points
    12z GFS says nada this run. High pulling away to quick up North and the low placement is a smudge North as well. Ultimately less cold air to start with as well.
  17. 2 points
    Ooooh. ๐Ÿ‘€ *moseys out front door to nonchalantly buy a case of water or two*
  18. 2 points
    GFS said. I see you euro Hold my beer boysโ€”โ€”โ€”. Lol
  19. 2 points
    You'll notice that a lot of people waited until the middle to the end of November to make a forecast, and others didn't make a public forecast at all. ๐Ÿ™‚ Gun shy.
  20. 2 points
    Hard not to get excited about where weโ€™re headed later in the month......
  21. 2 points
    Yeah we don't really get to cash in on these smaller events like the counties to our west, but we often have better totals in the big storms when we get southerly upslope flow, so I'll take that trade off.
  22. 2 points
  23. 1 point
    A white Christmas would be awesome!
  24. 1 point
    Good Saturday morning and welcome to the weekend! Not a bad weekend in store now that the rain has pushed out. Did you get much in your backyard? Many areas had anywhere from 1-4" with the heavier amounts a little further south. Here's the radar estimated rainfall totals. While the rain may be over for now, there is more on the way. Here's a look at the severe outlook. And here's a look at the additional rainfall we'll have through 7 pm Tuesday. I wanted to show you this. We are now in one of the quietest solar years in a century. Low solar winters are cold and stormy. Think 2009-2010. Speaking of that period... on this date in 2010 I set two records here at the house. I set a record low high temperature of 32.0ยบ F and a record low low temperature of 13.1ยบ F, and both of those records still stand. Again, not a bad weekend with relatively tranquil weather. Time to get out and get that Christmas shopping done! We're in the "12 Days of Christmas" countdown! ๐Ÿ™‚ Have a great Saturday!
  25. 1 point
    For whatever it may be worth the GEFS had a pretty big jump on snow for the NE corner.
  26. 1 point
    At my place in 2010 in this date I had a low of 13 and a high of 35! Christmas of 2010 we recorded 3 inches of snow at my location 5.5 miles Southeast of Athens Ben Epps Airport! A once in a lifetime event for Northeast Georgia outside of the mountains! Recorded a total of 2.80 inches of rainfall for this rainfall event! Much needed for the thirsty ground!
  27. 1 point
  28. 1 point
    After Christmas do we finally see cold temps, or do we continue with the above avg temps and rain every 2-3 days? To be honest I would rather see a cold high pressure drop in with the cobalt blue skies and no moisture, than deal with 80 degree temps down here in S Georgia. At least have a Winter!
  29. 1 point
    Huntsville area getting absolutely plastered right now, nice rates and all snow per ground reports.
  30. 1 point
    NE GA generally doesn't do well with frontal passage stuff. The tall mountains to our northwest tend to slow down the cold and dry up the moisture. I would not expect anything east of Union County but I would love to be wrong.
  31. 1 point
    GFS going crazy with ice in the long range again.
  32. 1 point
  33. 1 point
    And the 18z NAM is still borderline. A balmy 33 degree rain haha
  34. 1 point
    Noticed this as well this morning. I was gonna wait until the 18z came out to mention but the 12z EURO also had some pretty low dew points as well.
  35. 1 point
    I love the 12z EUROโ€™s 35 degree rain Friday!!
  36. 1 point
    On Weatherbell the twm NAM's run at these times. The last column is the next local runtime.
  37. 1 point
    I saw Allan Huffman tweet no confidence in any wintry weather for N Car and S Car unless something should change in the models. He said maybe AFTER Christmas
  38. 1 point
    Yep just a cold rain. The cold air just doesn't look impressive at all there on the Euro.
  39. 1 point
    But hey I don't wanna sound like a Debby downer. The models are showing a chaotic active weather period heading into the week of Christmas. So at this juncture our odds may be better than normal, but only in the way that 0.1% is greater than 0.01%.
  40. 1 point
    I hope the southern jet will stay this active come January and February cause it has just been a constant barrage since early November. If so I don't see how don't score at least one big event this winter. If we can ever actually get a Greenland block and keep these cutoff lows streaming in it should be a real fun time.
  41. 1 point
    This IS the time to be watching ensembles, not operational runs.
  42. 1 point
    And looking at that run again if we could get that look but with the track from yesterdays Euro I actually think we could score more snow and sleet than freezing rain. Cause that's not purely a CAD event on the GFS. It's got nice dual highs bridging over the top. Usually with the right track, that will deliver enough of a cold press for at least some snow, with cold being pressed down from both the NW and the NE. So at this lead time I'd say anything from just rain, to mostly ice, or even mostly snow is still in the range of possibilities.
  43. 1 point
    Flying out next Friday and coming back Sunday. 13th to 15th.
  44. 1 point
    Have you seen the potential for major ice next week?
  45. 1 point
    12z EURO trying to show off
  46. 1 point
    Good morning! As you can tell... I'm running a little late this morning. ๐Ÿ™‚ Did you see any flakes of snow? I had a couple of people send pictures, but not many. It was never going to be a big event anyway, just a novelty. Here's an image from Tammy Mason from Blairsville this morning. And Brasstown Bald Some areas around the Smokies had 3-4". There were a lot of 0.5" readings in Tennessee. It will be a little chilly tonight but we should warm up some between now and Thursday. Rain chances return for Friday and next weekend, so take that into consideration before making those outdoor plans! Otherwise, I hope everyone has a great Monday!
  47. 1 point
    Concerning Larry Cosgroveโ€™s comparing this yearโ€™s potential setup to 2007/2008 and 2008/2009 winter seasons neither were very good here in Northeast Georgia! 07/08 +1.6 in Athens and 08/09 +1.03, however we got a beautiful, Big snowstorm in March 2009! Anyway a positive way to look at it is both years much better than the Blowtorch of last winter at +2.42! I think he may be about right this season! Anything better than the last 2-3 winter seasons!
  48. 1 point
    I've had two dreams recently of a big snow storm. That's got to mean something lol I'll be sure to share some pics from Blue Ridge if it pans out!
  49. 1 point
    MJO is moving through some warm phases right now. won't be there for a long period of time.
  50. 1 point
    It's probably dependent on the position of the low and the wrap around part.
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