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Showing content with the highest reputation since 08/21/2019 in all areas

  1. 4 points
    My disclaimer... As always, please refer to the latest official forecast from the National Hurricane Center as well as your local NWS forecast offices. πŸ™‚ I'm here to pass along information from a myriad of sources, not to make a hurricane forecast. It's not my job and I don't get paid to do it. πŸ™‚ If you catch me saying "I think" (which is dangerous in itself), just know those are my personal opinions that carry little to no weight. So if "I think" don't go telling people that "I said". 😜 LOL! In closing, always heed the warnings from the experts. I'll do my part to make sure you have the VERY latest information regarding Dorian, from all of the official and unofficial sources. Thanks for following!
  2. 3 points
    You've GOT to watch this. It's in the outer edge of the eyewall.
  3. 2 points
    Here is one webcam (with data!) that I will be following. http://www.evsjupiter.com/main.htm
  4. 2 points
  5. 2 points
    Scariest thing I noticed on the models tonight has been the stall over Grand Bahama and whatever the island to its east is. Other than the GFS, basically every other model has them experiencing eyewall conditions for up to, if not over, 24 hours. The storm may be at its peak intensity at that time also, so I can't even imagine the damage that could cause. Between the two islands, your talking about 70,000+ people... I really hope they have a good evacuation system in place because Cat 4 or maybe even Cat 5 conditions for that long would likely be unsurvivable in a lot of areas.
  6. 2 points
    Dorian was struggling around 10:30 pm last night... well for Dorian anyway. But now... what a perfect eye and storm structure. I think we will have a CAT5 today. 10:30 pm 2:30 am this morning
  7. 2 points
    We now need to face the fact that the Georgia coast is once again a target. Let us hope the HWRF is not correct in its depiction. People along the Georgia coast need to prepared now. These are 925 mb winds, so just off the surface,and 140 knots is about 160 mph.
  8. 2 points
    Off the shore is in the cone so the forecast from the NHC would be absolutely right. If the public/media wants to bash the NHC because they don't understand the forecast products then that's on them. The same stuff happened after Irma when in reality they nailed what was an abnormally difficult forecast. The NHC has made leaps and bounds improvements over the past two decades and their forecasts are only getting better. As for the models, it's a numbers thing. They are quite literally numerical models, essentially a game of probability. Experience and knowledge allow them to read these outputs, and their inherent weaknesses, in ways that we never could.
  9. 2 points
    Here's an example of what I'm saying. If any one of these features is stronger/weaker or aligned differently then the storm could go in any direction. Given how far out we still are, it's highly unlikely that the models have this all figured out yet.
  10. 2 points
    4 days ago a little tropical depression formed out in the Atlantic that no one thought had a chance. Too much dry air, lots of shear, Saharan dust all over, if it goes south it dissolves... I don't recall too many people giving that little depression a chance. Here's the first image I saved from that TD genesis Here we are 4 days later, that little tropical depression grew up, got a name, and decided it was ready for the big time. And big time it is going to be. I don't believe the models have the intensity figured out yet. They have been playing catch up from the beginning with this little storm that could. It's been amazing to watch how Dorian fought off challenge after challenge to defy the odds and continue to grow. We will have about 4 days to watch Dorian before she decides to hang a left and crawl to the coast of Florida. As with other Florida tourist, she won't be in a big hurry to get across the state to the Gulf of Mexico, so severe wind and rain damage will occur along with very damaging beach erosion. And with weakening steering currents, she won't be in a big hurry to move to the northern Gulf coast either. Oh, I didn't mention a 2nd Florida landfall did I? Yes, a likely scenario. As with any deep low in in the central Gulf, a strong moisture plume will be transported north toward Alabama and Georgia. As this hurricane moves north toward the Gulf coast, high levels of precipitable water will be pumped northward creating rounds of heavy tropical rainfall. Will it get this far? Can't say. Can't even say that all of this will happen the way I describe it. But it appears to match up fairly nicely with the models AT THE MOMENT. But... if you've been following this over the last four days you've seen a lot of changes, and you'll probably see a lot more changes over the next four days. The timing of the forward motion of Dorian and how quickly the high pressure starts building in (as well as how strong) and pushing west, will determine when and how much Dorian turns west. This is key. Regardless of the turn, Dorian will be a major hurricane at landfall. Everyone on the east coast (or even central) of Florida needs to be stepping up the hurricane plans to completion. It's going to get interesting and it's going to get busy. I'll do my best to keep up but I have to eat and sleep too! πŸ™‚ Feel free to add anything to the discussion. See you at 5 pm... πŸ™‚
  11. 1 point
    Gave up on rain for the next few weeks 😞
  12. 1 point
    Good morning! Back to work for most everyone! I'm very blessed with a decent retirement so my days of forced labor are over. πŸ™‚ However, "to whom much is given, much is expected" so I must go back to Sarasota tomorrow to stay with my dad this week. He's doing as well as can be expected for someone that was married for 66 years, as well as dealing with his melanoma. He has three doctor visits scheduled this week and in home daily wound care for his leg. So while I'm going down to help with all of that, I'm really going so that I can just spend some time with him. Once I got out of school and started working, we all lived separate lives in places that weren't close to each other, and visits were few and far between. So while I have a chance, I want to go and get to know my dad all over again. You don't know how many of those moments you have left when someone is 91, and you have to make the most of them. It is an honor and a privilege to be able to help care for the person that raised me, and set the example for the kind of person I'm still striving to be. Weather... Hot. At least for a few more days. Later in the week, we should see another wedge (like last week) pushing down the eastern side of the Appalachian's into Georgia. It sounds like they believe the Euro ensemble way of thinking versus the GFS ensembles. The euro shows a little spike in the temperatures after the wedge breaks down, while the GFS keeps it relatively mild, so the weekend and beyond are still TBD. In this water vapor image, I'm displaying the 500 mb winds and the 300 mb heights (purple lines). The trough off the west coast and axis of high pressure are plainly visible. Still watching the tropics, but no immediate threats at the moment. These are the two systems we're watching right now. So let's get through the middle of this week, enjoy a little cool down, and hopefully the details about next weeks temperatures will become clearer. Have a great Monday! πŸ™‚
  13. 1 point
  14. 1 point
    After last year I don't know that I want to hear anything about winter forecasts lol.
  15. 1 point
    Sunday 9/22 looks crazy but i know its far out.
  16. 1 point
  17. 1 point
    Nothing to worry about.
  18. 1 point
    Praying for your safety and for your Mom’s comfort and peace. God is able.
  19. 1 point
    Looks like eyewall replacement processes may finally be starting. May weaken some, although bad news for Florida as the hurricane and ts windfields would expand, meaning worse conditions even on near miss.
  20. 1 point
  21. 1 point
    I think for now Florida is okay, as it has yet to really do anything that the NHC didn't expect. But it is certainly way too close of a call for anyone along the coast to chance it.
  22. 1 point
    I don’t know how he makes it unfortunately... gust up to 200 now... dude is screwed.
  23. 1 point
    I am worried about all the people in Florida, but am semi happy it is there and not here, still a horrible storm though... I hope nobody gets killed by this storm, but I know that is unlikely...
  24. 1 point
    I’ve been thinking about the Frying Pan. 😊
  25. 1 point
    I know. My wife teaches here in Gwinnett, so she was telling me all about that nonsense. LOL! People are crazy.
  26. 1 point
    Soooo....does the shift mean we are more likely to see affects here locally? Atlanta metro? It had seemed previously with Florida landfall we were pretty much cleared.
  27. 1 point
  28. 1 point
  29. 1 point
    I wonder if they wave to each other as they fly by. πŸ™‚
  30. 1 point
  31. 1 point
    Saturday, August 31, 8 AM Update BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 28A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS DORIAN STRONGER AND MOVING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 73.0W ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Andros Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests in southern and central Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. Watches may be required for portions of the east coast of Florida later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 73.0 West. Dorian is now moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower westward motion should continue into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and central Bahamas today, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast late Monday. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (225 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While some fluctuations in intensity are possible, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The latest minimum central pressure just reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 944 mb (27.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm winds beginning tonight. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week: Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches. Coastal sections of the southeast United States...6 to 12 inches, isolated 18 inches. Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells will begin affect the east-facing shores of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
  32. 1 point
    Saturday, August 31 - 5 AM Update WTNT45 KNHC 310848 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 Dorian continues to look impressive in satellite imagery this morning, with a fairly symmetric area of cold cloud tops surrounding a 10-15 n mi wide eye. There have been no new aircraft data from the storm since the last advisory. However, the satellite appearance has changed little since the aircraft were last in the storm, and the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have changed little over the past several hours. Based on this, the initial intensity remains 120 kt. The initial motion is now 290/10. A low- to mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of the hurricane should steer it west- northwestward to westward for the next 48 h or so, with the forward speed becoming very slow as the center passes near or over the Abacos and Grand Bahama. The track guidance for this part of the track is tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is near the ECMWF, UKMET, and HCCA corrected consensus models. The track forecast becomes much more problematic after 48 h. The global models the NHC normally uses, along with the regional HWRF and HMON models, have made another shift to the east to the point where none of them forecast Dorian to make landfall in Florida. However, the UKMET ensemble mean still brings the hurricane over the Florida peninsula, as do several GFS and ECMWF ensemble members. The new track forecast for 72-120 h will be moved eastward to stay east of the coast of Florida, and it lies between the old forecast and the various consensus models. Additional adjustments to the forecast track may be necessary later today if current model trends continue. It should be noted that the new forecast track does not preclude Dorian making landfall on the Florida coast, as large portions of the coast remain in the track cone of uncertainty. Also, significant impacts could occur even if the center stays offshore. Dorian should remain in a generally favorable environment for the next 3-4 days, and the intensity guidance indicates it will remain a powerful hurricane during this time. The new intensity forecast calls for a little more strengthening today, then it shows a slow weakening that follows the trend of the intensity guidance. During this time, the biggest intensity changes may come from hard-to- forecast eyewall replacement cycles. Late in the forecast period, increased vertical shear and proximity to land is expected to cause some weakening. Key Messages: 1. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force winds are likely in portions of the northwestern Bahamas, particularly on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. A hurricane warning is in effect for these areas, and residents should listen to advice given by local emergency officials and have their hurricane preparations completed today. 2. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force winds are still possible along portions of the Florida east coast by the early to middle part of next week, but since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn northward near the coast, it is too soon to determine when or where the highest surge and winds will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 3. The risk of strong winds and life-threatening storm surge is increasing along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina during the middle of next week. Residents in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. 4. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are expected over portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the southeastern United States this weekend through much of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 25.8N 72.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 26.1N 74.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 26.5N 75.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 26.7N 77.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 26.9N 78.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 27.5N 79.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 29.5N 80.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 32.0N 80.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
  33. 1 point
    Wicked but beautiful Dorian IR Loop - August 30 752PM.mp4
  34. 1 point
    We have a monster on our hands...
  35. 1 point
    Going out on a limb.. I think the Euro will come back. I question the Euro at this range ~4 days out) with tropical systems. Only time will tell though. If it starts coming back around tomorrow, we'll know. If not... we'll know. 😜
  36. 1 point
    Take cans and stop in north Florida!
  37. 1 point
    Steve my wife is an RN and works for Hospice. Also i faced that with my dad. Many nights i went over to Mom's SR Apartment at 2-3 in the morn because she could not handle him... I was blessed. I could sing to him or pray with him or humor him to a point most of the time( with the aide of the power medicine and the Lord) back to sleep... My family always said I would go to sleep to if it meant not hearing your singing!! lol
  38. 1 point
    You missed that post from earlier. πŸ˜›
  39. 1 point
    So sorry to hear that! I will keep you and your family in my prayers!
  40. 1 point
    Despite being in different locations this reminds me a lot of the headache with tracking Irma. Both a slow westward moving hurricanes sliding northward into a weakness between two ridges. We didn't get a feel for exactly when Irma would make that turn until almost 24-36 hours out, with the official forecast flipping back and forth to each side of the peninsula. And then of course Irma doing her own thing and going right up the middle.
  41. 1 point
    Information is arriving at a furious pace this morning as meteorologist are taking note of the rapidly intensifying Dorian. As you read in the post above from Dr. Ryan Maue... "Nothing currently stopping storm from reaching Category 5". From Ryan, those are ominous words. Combine potential CAT5 winds, with a forward speed of 4-5 mph, and a perpendicular landfall to the coast, and you have an extremely dangerous situation that will be unfolding on the southern Florida coastline. Some areas will be hammered for more than 24 hours with hurricane force winds and storm surge, and the worst of the destruction will be just on the north side of the storm. If you are in the affected areas, please heed the warnings and evacuation orders from your local officials. Dorian is becoming more serious and deadly by the minute. Bastardi calls it the "fist of fury". Stay tuned for the latest information right here.
  42. 1 point
  43. 1 point
    Uh... at 108 hours, the Euro is on roughly the same latitude as Miami.
  44. 1 point
    Steve, I went to the Support page and discovered to my surprise that its for tech requests. Can we drone you some coffee or something?
  45. 1 point
    The model data ingest initialization happens about 6 hours before the model run... the models are playing catch up, and another reason I think a low end CAT 4 is what we'll see at some point. There will be a little interaction with the upper level low that's been hanging out around the path, but it will only help to limit the intensity for a little while. We shall see.
  46. 1 point
  47. 1 point
    Old GFS brings support for out to sea at 18z! If only that wasn't a model we've had to put out to pasture because of how bad it is lol. New GFS would be a disaster for the GA coast.
  48. 1 point
    Atlantic ridge building in from the east. That is what's forcing the turn. How long it continues west/northwest is to be seen, and probably where we'll see some variations for w while.
  49. 1 point
    Good Monday morning, welcome to the new work week! One more day of relatively cool weather and then we warm back up and the rain returns. A few folks in Georgia has some showers yesterday but not many, as the stable air from the wedge helped to reduce the rain chances. That wa a strong wedge for this time of the year, and hopefully those will be more frequent this fall and winter. Here is where the rain fell yesterday. The effects of the wedge are slowly fading this morning. Notice the absence of the surface winds in NC (red circle) indicating a weaker pressure gradient as the parent high to the north shifts northeast. Notice the warmer temps just across the border in TN (yellow circle) and notice the wind direction. Those warmer temps are due to the downslope winds from the mountains warming the air in that location, while on the NC side it's much cooler. Always keep downslope winds in mind during the winter... it can really mess up some snow forecast and snow totals. And finally, the area of rain to our west will slowly start sliding east. The rain that is now falling in Alabama will slowly start creeping our way and by tomorrow, our rain chances go to a solid 60-70% range for much of the forecast area. Notice that we are now starting to see more cold fronts pushing into Georgia as the summer starts to fade, another sure sign that autumn is on the way. We're obviously in an unsettled period right now where we cool down then warm back up with all of that interspersed with rain, and that will continue for a while. I'm making updates on Dorian at this link: I hope everyone enjoys their Monday.... it's an interesting day. Monday Monday.... πŸ™‚
  50. 0 points
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