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  1. 25 points
    Ok... going out on a limb by creating this post, but I believe there is enough model justification to warrant it. No guarantees! ๐Ÿ˜œ The models are all beginning to show threats for this time period even though we're 10 days or so away. The mythical blocking is finally appearing, major cold intrusions, and glimpses of snow across the southeast are all part of the picture. This is unfolding exactly as expected and it appears that winter may be settling in for quite a while. The models are still all over the place, so continue to expect large swings in the model runs. Later this evening, I'll try to put something together to help illustrate the changes that we're seeing. But I can tell you this... my excitement level has gone up considerably today. ๐Ÿ™‚
  2. 21 points
    Hump Day! For those teachers and students here in Gwinnett, you only have one more day of school after today! Well... don't expect to see that yellow ball of fire in the sky today. I suppose it could peek out a little but the rain is returning tonight, and we'll stay like that for Thursday and Friday. The WPC precipitation forecast shows a widespread 1.5" rainfall event with isolated higher amounts. Temps will be running a few degrees below normal during that period, somewhat offsetting the last two days that we had that were above normal. Winter is still on track folks. Despite all of the calls for "winter fail", "winter is over", blah, blah, blah, winter is not over and it hasn't even started. EVERY year it's like this, EVERY year. Snow weenies jumping off cliffs, crying and wailing and the gnashing of teeth. And while it's predictable, it has also become comical... at least for me... I guess because 1) - I'm not the one crying and wailing and gnashing my teeth, ๐Ÿ˜œ and 2) - I know winter is not over. This is where you have to separate model watching with meteorology. People want to go out, take a look at the operational runs, and know what is going on. Please don't be that person. Models are not designed to be the gospel, and especially one model and one model run and ESPECIALLY 10 days or longer in advance. And ESPECIALLY during transition periods when the models are flailing around. It's the BIGGER signs you want to watch for, not the details, if you get the bigger picture right, the details will follow. So for now... just know that changes are coming... the winter forecast is on track. I am very excited to see the forecast for the early SSW event and it's timing with the MJO moving into more favorable winter time phases. Combine that with a Modoki el Nino and active subtropical jet, and I see a VERY volatile winter with LOTS of potential. We've already seen several gulf coast storm tracks already, all we need are a few of those when we have cold temps and we're golden! Just the combination of the SSW and MJO alone has the potential to bring a severe cold outbreak to the eastern US in January. So all I can say is... buckle up folks... the ride is almost ready to leave the station.
  3. 17 points
    Good Tuesday morning to everyone! This is going to be a fun week, next week will be an exciting week, and the weeks to come after that will be the amazing weeks. Or that's the way I see it. The fun this week will be watching the pattern change unfold. Don't get hung up on trying to find that big storm right now, but instead watch as the ridges over the west and over Greenland start to form. We have a hard time getting snow here without decent blocking, so in my book, it's imperative that those blocks get in place. Until that happens, any cold or any precip will come and go pretty quickly with nothing there to hold it in place. Next week looks to be pretty exciting, with the ensembles getting deep with some snow. Patience... Once the block is firmly established, the real amazing stuff should occur. The blocking should be established around the 24-25th and by the 28th it should be locked in. The ensemble mean from the GFS is showing a lot of snow over the next 16 days. Remember, this is smoothed out, some members are lower and some are higher. If you saw this mornings operational run you'd think no snow was coming. But look at the individual ensemble members for Blairsville. I shared this image the other day, so as a comparison, today's run versus two days ago 00Z Jan 15 12Z Jan 13 Do you see a trend? Trends people, it's all about trends. We're trending colder and we're trending snowier. It is coming and it may come big time!
  4. 14 points
    Ok, I've been playing today. So for your viewing pleasure, we're going old school. Here's your "Local on the 8's" the way the Weather Channel USE to do it in the early 90's, and this is real live data. ๐Ÿ™‚ Even picked out the music myself. It's too bad I can't schedule this to upload to my website. twc.mp4
  5. 13 points
    Ok folks... here are my thoughts about what is going on right now. With such an active pattern, the models are totally worthless and of no help at all past 5 days, not even the ensembles. We're not talking about the little movements that models make, we're talking 1000 mile swings. Yea, they can spot systems, but those "things" end up getting rearranged 25 times before they get here. I'm confident we'll see multiple chances for snow over the next month or so, but when and where are totally unknown right now. But I know I've said that before, and I know you're getting tired of hearing "here it comes", and at some point it's like crying "Wolf". People start to turn you off when you say "here it comes" but then it doesn't. After a while they no longer trust or even listen to what you have say. So far the winter has been nothing as promised and I understand the negativity, frustration, doubt, and despair, I really do. I am not oblivious to what you are feeling. The thing I personally feel is the frustration in my inability to get the snow here. Despite so many things going in our favor, and so many expert opinions from meteorologist confirming what we should be seeing, the weather systems just haven't come together to setup the favorable pattern that was in most winter forecast, and one that has repeatedly shown up in the models at 10 days out. It's frustrating to see it coming, only to watch it fade away inside 10 days. We just haven't been able to lock anything in yet. With all of this back and forth right now, we will probably not "see" our snow until we're within 3-5 days away, or maybe even less, there is just too much inconsistent variation for us to even to pretend to have a clue right now. And that's not just me, that is all meteorologist. No one has any confidence in any solution past 3-5 days at this point, and anything that pops up outside of that is going to be a very low confidence solution at best. So all we can do is continue to track what we can find and temper our enthusiasm if something is spotted outside of 5 days. Winter weather is tough to forecast in the south and requires everything to be lined up just right, and if that doesn't happen, we end up with a cold rain. Despite what I've written here, I'm still very optimistic about our chances for snow in case you're wondering. And not that my optimism has brought us any snow so far, I still feel that February holds a lot of promise, so I don't want anyone to think that our chances are going away, they aren't. We just can't see them yet. Believe. Either all of this confusion is a good thing, or it's all a nightmare, I'm just not sure which just yet.
  6. 12 points
  7. 12 points
    Guys and girls on this site I just wanna take this moment and apologize for all the negative things Iโ€™ve said recently. I know it might seem like an attack on people that know more than me but itโ€™s really not. I want snow just as much as I know Steve does. Please accept this apology.
  8. 12 points
    I'm telling you... it's coming, and we may see a big one! All the cards are on the table.
  9. 11 points
  10. 11 points
    Oh behalf of all us snow lovers that might get left out this time, I found this beauty at 324hours on the GFS... lol I think we all need some eye candy at this point while we hold out to see what happens tomorrow ๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚
  11. 11 points
  12. 11 points
    Seeing as we're quoting Bon Jovi, things are kinda iffy weather wise, and I have nothing at the moment to contribute to the analytical discussion let's try a bit of humor.... Living on a Prayer (Southern Winter Re-Mix) Once upon a time not so long ago NOAA used to work around the clock, staff's been on furlough And weโ€™re down on our luck, it's tough, so tough Steve looks at the models all day, looking for a way He tries to bring us hope, for snow, for snow He says, we've got to hold on to the trends weโ€™ve got It doesn't matter if the CADโ€™s in place or not We've got the ensembles that's a lot, for snow We'll give it a shot Woah, the model's are flip/flopping everywhere Woah, livin' on a prayer Believe in the Polar Vortex, a lobe will get here I swear Woah, livin' on a prayer Spannโ€™s got his suspenders on cocked Now heโ€™s reigning us in with his tough talk It's tough, so tough We dream of 10:1 ratios When we whine on the forums, Steve whispers Guys, itโ€™ll be okay, someday We've got to hold on to the -NAO It doesn't make a difference if the wedge is in place or not We've got a southern slider and that's a lot for snow We'll give it a shot Woah, the suppressionโ€™s almost there Woah, livin' on a prayer Coldโ€™s chasing rain, itโ€™ll make it Steve swears Woah, livin' on a prayer Livin' on a prayer Oh, we've got to hold on, dew points low enough or not You live for the flurry when it's all that you've got Woah, the trends are almost there Woah, livin' in the South Take the clipper, itโ€™ll snow I swear Woah, livin' on a prayerโ€ฆโ€ฆโ€ฆ Steve, please feel free to remove if I'm straying a bit too far from the discussion ๐Ÿ˜ƒ
  13. 11 points
    Good Monday morning to everyone! I guess a lot of you are not going to be at work today? That means you get to follow the weather all day!!! ๐Ÿ™‚ I posted this in the January 20-27 discussion this morning, but my target date is looking better and better. ๐Ÿ˜‰ Still lots of time for this to evolve and develop, and things will get very interesting by the end of this week. Today, cold temps. Here are the 5 am temps across the southeast as well as the 24 hour temperature change from yesterday. The rain returns Tuesday night and should last off and on through Thursday night. After that, colder air pushes in and our chances for snow increase through the weekend. Buckle up! ๐Ÿ™‚ We're not exactly sure what this ride will bring, but the trip is going to be fun!
  14. 11 points
    A little closer look at the GFS ensemble (GEFS) for the next 16 days.
  15. 11 points
    Good Tuesday morning! Well... today is the last warm day for while, take advantage of it! We go from 60's (I hit a high if 68.5ยบ F yesterday) to 40's tomorrow with little to no fanfare. There is only a light chance for showers as the cold front comes through today, so nothing exciting weather-wise associated with it. Still looking for a low probability winter weather event this weekend, as overrunning moisture over a wedge many bring some frozen precipitation to the mountains. Still a lot of uncertainty in the forecast right now, but the trend in recent model runs has been toward colder temperatures, so we'll see how this evolves. NWS Forecast Low Temps for Saturday Looking at the Euro temps this morning, and after today for many people, temperatures don't go above 49 degrees for the next 10 days. Don't be surprised to see them colder. I believe that today marks the beginning of our change to winter, and all signs point to a steep downhill slide from this point on โ›ท๏ธ. Seat belts fastened... arms up! ๐Ÿ˜‰โ„๏ธโ„๏ธโ„๏ธ
  16. 11 points
    Here's what I'm thinking right now.... and this is simply me speculating on what I'm seeing and hearing. The models are trending further south and colder. Cold air damming (CAD) is always poorly modeled and generally underestimated. Massive amounts of moisture (2-3") are to be expected. Those people in the CAD favored areas should be on alert for potential changes in your forecast. That includes areas as far southwest as the north and east Atlanta suburbs. The positioning and strength of the surface high to the north and the location and strength of the low to the south will determine where the winter weather falls, and only a few degrees one way or the other will make a tremendous difference in the outcome. As you head into the NE corner of the state, things change rapidly and the transition from freezing rain to sleet to snow is sharp, and the NWS is calling for almost a foot of snow in parts of Rabun County (Clayton) and western NC will be hammered. This is an evolving and challenging forecast, and specific details will not come until the event is upon us. Please pay attention to future forecast for any changes, and stay tuned here for all the latest weather information. Now back to your regularly scheduled broadcast... ๐Ÿ˜ƒ
  17. 11 points
    What the heck... NOT A FORECAST This is just eye candy... NOT A FORECAST Again, this does not take into account the temperatures from the surface to the upper levels where snow would form. Entertainment purposes only!!! THIS WILL CHANGE!!!
  18. 10 points
    Well... I think it may be time to start over with a new thread. Great opportunities for winter type weather with lots of cold air around. So.... that being said, let's see where it goes! โ„๏ธโ›ท๏ธ๐Ÿ›ท๐Ÿ’ฎ
  19. 10 points
    Dang it. I'm always out doing stuff when things happen. But at last, the lost snow.
  20. 10 points
    We will see some snow. If I have to come to everyone's house and make it myself. ๐Ÿ™‚
  21. 10 points
  22. 10 points
    Ok folks... I'm thinking the Euro is on to something between the 26th-29th. There is support from the ensemble mean and the control run, and we are fully in the blocking at that point. It's a long way off but I think we may be on to something. Expect the operational to keep moving around, so don't put a lot of faith in that just yet, but we'll keep watching. ๐Ÿ™‚ Here we go!
  23. 10 points
    Good Tuesday morning to everyone! Nothing earth shattering to report on from over night except that our foot of snow went away. That's ok though, our chance are coming. Right now you can expect the models to show some crazy solutions as they hunt back and forth trying to determine a solution. If you are an educator, and you are not in the "Educator" group (look under your avatar), let me know and I'll add you. No special prizes or treats (I know how you all work...! ) but I'd like to highlight those that dedicate their career in helping others learn. That's what I try to do here and I have the utmost respect for those that have the patience to work with kids. I spent 30 years in the education field as a technology person and not a teacher, and it wasn't until my last 10 years that I actually worked in a school. Working in a school and marrying a teachers opens your eyes to the trials and tribulations that teacher have to deal with. So thank you teachers for everything you do. I would be doing this today had it not been for the teachers that taught me everything I know. Now... back to the weather! ๐Ÿ™‚
  24. 10 points
    Good Tuesday morning! Well, the Special Weather Statement for black ice was a bust for many people around the metro area. Here is where the freezing line is this morning. It's the purple line. So unless you are in the far NW corner or in the higher elevations of the mountains, nothing. Gwinnett schools was starting two hours late this morning due to the threat of icy roads. The temp is falling right now but it's at 36ยบ, so I don't think it will make it to freezing before the sun comes up. Today and tomorrow will be cool but mostly sunny, so enjoy the "normal" mid December weather while you can. The moisture and rain returns Thursday afternoon into Saturday morning and it looks like another inch or so of rain may be on the way. Over the last 30 days we seen rainfall anomalies of 200%-300% above normal, and those deep anomalies go back almost 6 months. With an active sub-tropical jet this winter the precipitation anomalies are expected to continue. When you combine those with the expected very cold air, you have a very volatile and exciting winter in store. We will begin our upcoming warm up this weekend, and our temperatures will on average remain above normal until we get within a few days of Christmas. After that, all bets are off. All signs point to the quick down turn to a prolonged winter period. With all the positive signs are falling into place, and combined with a potential early season SSW, this winter looks to be round the clock excitement.
  25. 9 points
  26. 9 points
    Good morning! I'm guessing everyone made it through yesterday's weather ok? I hope you're not tired of the rain just yet, because you're going to have at least another week of it. Yes, at least 7 days of rain every day. Here's the additional rainfall that some of you may see. As soon as I get yesterday's rainfall, I'll share it with you. There are still people in Georgia without power this morning, and this what it looked like around 6:30 AM I think everyone is more interested in the next several weeks and what that might bring. My first comment is this... if you are watching the operational runs, you should view those strictly for entertainment. I wouldn't put a lot of stock in those much past 3-5 days right now. You SHOULD be watching the ensembles, and those I'm getting excited about. At this point in time, they are consistently showing winter weather for the southeast for the last ten days of the month. No big snow bombs right now, but those don't generally show up on an ensemble this far out anyway. I'll say this for all you naysayers... if you're not getting excited about these images, you're missing the boat, these are good signals for winter weather. I know... everyone has been burned, especially since we've had several bad winters in a row, but bad winters don't last forever. I suppose by know you understand and I admit, when it comes to winter, I'm a glass half full kinda guy. I'm always optimistic until the weather proves me otherwise. My winter weather interest started at a very young age in Nashville and I use to track winter storms before most of you were born. I was tracking winter storms when Pat Sajak was doing the weather on the local TV station in Nashville, that's how far back I go! ๐Ÿ™‚ So you can take all of these with a grain of salt, just keep that salt off my roads when the snow hits. I want my fun to last. ๐Ÿ™‚ Notice that some of those individual ensemble members are taking a dump over north Georgia. Remember that. ๐Ÿ˜‰ Don't say I didn't warn you. ๐Ÿ˜‰ I will be taking snow orders whenever you are ready, just choose your number from the menu! ๐Ÿ˜€ The chef is ready to stir some things up! โ„๏ธ I'm sorry you will have a dreary 7 day period ahead of you, but look at it this way. It's the things that are coming at the end of the period that will be the reward. As humans, we have a desire to want to control things, even those things that are out of our control, and then we get upset when they don't work out the way we want. Relax and release. Going through the death of both my parents 46 days apart helped me to understand that, it's all God's timing not ours. Be patient, have faith, and believe. ๐Ÿ˜‡ I hope everyone has a great Sunday!
  27. 9 points
    Good Tuesday morning! This is the last sunny day until next Tuesday, so get out and enjoy! ๐Ÿ™‚ Oh, and enjoy the warmth as well... next week is starting to look like winter time again. These are 1 PM temps for Wed/Thu from the GFS/Euro respectively. The Euro is a day later on the colder air. Along with the colder temps, both models have been flirting with some snow across the north Georgia area around the 5th-6th time frame, and they have been pretty consistent with it for about 4-5 model runs including the overnight runs. So I'm watching closely, but after being burned all winter long, I'm moving cautiously with this one. The next 7 days of rainfall shows the higher totals to our south, and this is a good thing in more ways than one. It actually gives us a better chance at winter weather by keeping the warmer and wetter weather to the south. We'll see how that goes.
  28. 9 points
    Good morning! After 9 hours of much needed sleep, I feel better today! Every time there is a threat of inclement weather, meteorologist and weather enthusiast alike go on high alert until the storm is gone, and it can make for some long hours. But after it's all over comes the crash. ๐Ÿ™‚ I know the storm was a huge disappointment for everyone, and for that I am sorry. ๐Ÿ˜ž All I can do is try to spot them at a distance and hope they come together. The ups and downs in between are all part of the roller coaster ride, and that ride can be fun when things go right, or the roller coaster leaves the tracks like it did with this system. A lot of people can't stomach that, and after one failed storm, don't ride the roller coaster anymore. If you are new to a discussion where all the details are thoroughly talked about ad nauseam, then you can become turned off to the whole process when things fail. But I say give it another chance, not every storm under performs like this one did. When it all comes together, the excitement and joy FAR outweigh the failed storm disappointments. So hang in there... our time is coming. ๐Ÿ˜‰ While we didn't get much if any snow, we have gotten some cold, and it's not just us. How cold you say? But that still doesn't tell you how cold it is. Take a look at these 5 am temps. Combine that with the high winds, and you end up with life threatening chill temperatures. As for the southeast, here's how we looked at 5 am We have our own wind chill issues. Overall, here are some stats for the US as a whole. But no need to worry, we're in Georgia and we have the ultimate defense against snow.... warm temps! By Monday we'll be back into the 60's with rain again! WOOHOO! But no worries, despite the crappy winter we've had so far, it's not over.... well... winter is not over. Can't promise anything about the crappy part right now. BUT.... out next chance... February 9-11 time frame. Onward through the fog!!!
  29. 9 points
    Well now we know the secret, send you shopping and we will get snow
  30. 9 points
    Good morning to you! Well... you are gonna have great weather for the next 3 days! That's the big story isn't it? No? OK... no one cares or even thinks about the weather when it's sunny and nice, it just is what it is. But, when there is a chance of snow... people come out of the woodwork. Gotta love winter in the south. ๐Ÿ™‚ So... I will repost my comment from this morning right here. This from the Atlanta NWS office We are still three days away, and there will be changes in the models, but I think the changes will be small. So here is what I think. Keep in mind, this is not official, and only my best guess. With that being said, the Euro has been the most consistent in what it's showing, so I'm going with that solution right now. I believe the Gulf wave will be stronger based on persistence, as we haven't seen weak Gulf waves at all this winter. Here's roughly what I think will happen.๏ปฟ๏ปฟ This solution has very good ensemble support right now and it seems the snow amounts over Georgia have increased slightly over the previous runs. Below is the ensemble๏ปฟ mean and you can see how the general thought is the same. Remember, this is an average of 51 different runs. There is a snow hole to the NE where the mountains block the incoming cold air, and that area may have reduced probabilities of winter weather. We're just a little too far out for the snow probability maps for us, but this goes through 7 am Tuesday, ours comes later in the day. This shows the probability of >=1" of snow. So that is my first guess on what might happen. Again, I don't make the forecast, that's the job of ๏ปฟthe National Weather Service so take this with a HUGE grain of salt. No wait.... salt melts ice and snow. Take it with an ice cub๏ปฟe. ๏ปฟ๏ปฟโ„๏ธ๏ปฟ
  31. 9 points
    Good morning to everyone! Waking up to cold temps again this morning, with temperatures in the upper 20's to low 30's across the area, and even with clear skies, most people won't get out of the low to mid 40's for highs today. But hey, who cares if it's cold if there isn't any snow? Might as well be int he 70's if that's the case. ๐Ÿ™‚ But we are still keeping our eyes open for a chance for some winter precipitation for the next Tuesday/Wednesday time frame, and that's when a strong cold front will enter the state dragging the coldest air of the season along with it. Also in tow will be a line of precipitation, some of which may end up in the form of snow. How much? Where? We still don't know. The TV stations are all throwing amounts out there, and they will all be wrong, so don't get caught up in that nonsense right now. I did create a new discussion thread about next week, so if you are interested in the possibilities, then jump on over to the discussion!
  32. 9 points
    Good Saturday morning! Hope you don't have big outdoor plans today, because it's going to be a little wet. Looking at the current radar, you can see the rain entering the NW corner of the state right now. All of this is in advance of the surface low that's going to be wrecking havoc on the NE part of the US this weekend. Here you see the 500 mb trough deepening over the center part of the county. I guess everyone saw the extremely cold model solutions last night? They have changed this morning as expected, but don't be surprised to see that again, and that is what's on the table for the next 45 days. Ensemble snow amounts are trending up which is always a good sign. This is the GEFS ensemble mean for 16 days This is the Euro ensemble control run And this is the GEFS individual ensemble members. So you can see that the models are sniffing out snow, and I believe next weekend will be our first real chance.
  33. 9 points
  34. 9 points
    Guys... ye of little faith. ๐Ÿ˜„ Patience. The forecast is unfolding as planned. You are putting WAY too much emphasis on the modeling solutions right now. The changes that are forcing this pattern flip are well known at this point (seasonal jet changes, major stratospheric warming, weak Modoki el Nino, placement of warm/cool pools in the oceans, low solar), and the tropospheric response to those is well known. The models ARE showing what's coming, but you have to pay close attention to the details of those. All of those details are hidden in the chaos they are spitting out right now. We do know that the track of the first storm will cut, and we know why, it's been telegraphed why for a week now. No surprises. We need to get settled in the pattern. Look, it hasn't done the major flip yet. The models are still dealing with that portion and need to get that correct before they can possibly look out 10 days or longer. Look at the teleconnections. The EPS and GEFS agree on this. Every one of these goes into the most favorable position they could, all synchronized perfectly. -AO -NAO +PNA -EPO So surprise! The operational doesn't jive with it's own ensemble teleconnections! And think about this too, for the 00Z run of both operational models today, the Monday low temps are 10 degrees warmer on the GFS operational. NWS sided with the Euro. Not sure what goes on with the GFS operational sometimes. Either way, both the Euro and GFS support the teleconnection ideas, and those are about as favorable as they get.
  35. 9 points
    Sure you do. But I get e9 for the win!
  36. 9 points
    As Forum Pastor I adorn my cloak----- and cite my Prayer for all our Teachers Oh Lord, let it snow. Let it drift and let it blow. In the morning, no real fuss, Just enough to stop the bus. Enough to make the county say: "There will be no school today." Let the radio report: "Snow's deep!" And I'll roll over for more sleep. Then later on, say maybe ten, I'll turn the radio on again. Just in time to hear them say: "It's strange, the snow has gone away." And then I'll know, You made it stop. So I can go to the mall and shop. Please Lord, just hear my teacher's plea, And make it snow for the kids and me.
  37. 9 points
    DISCLAIMER - NOT A FORECAST... and will probably NEVER be a forecast here. You know... I HAVE to share this because this is the prettiest eye candy I've ever seen over Georgia. Ever. Don't look too long though... it will make your heart beat way too fast. Just brief glimpses. ๐Ÿ˜œ NOT A FORECAST
  38. 9 points
    Let me emphasize that DO NOT LOOK PAST 3-4 DAYS ON THE OPERATIONAL RUNS RIGHT NOW.
  39. 9 points
    This is a full week out, and still I find myself still checking this thread obsessively.
  40. 9 points
    Both the Euro and GFS "see" some winter precip for Friday/Saturday, but temps don't really support snow at the moment. But hey... let's roll with it. ๐Ÿ™‚ NOT A FORECAST
  41. 9 points
  42. 9 points
    My normal setup ๐Ÿ™‚ There is another computer underneath the Dell 4K monitor and another one in the living room, all doing weather/webcam/media stuff. In this image, the top monitor is the extended screen for my laptop (which is a 4K screen also) My two other computers http://blog.northgeorgiawx.com/weather-blog/weather-computers
  43. 9 points
    I am not going to even show you the snow maps... It would be criminal. ๐Ÿ™‚ You know... like more than a foot. . Oh wait... that happened last year as well. ๐Ÿ˜› A lot of the snow on those maps would fall as something other than snow. Still.....
  44. 8 points
    Good Monday morning! Let's get right to it! Can you say active period? Close calls? The Euro operational is the most bullish at the moment but the GFS ensemble is right there with it. And that's just this week. ๐Ÿ™‚ The weekend is a totally different system that we'll need to watch. If you read the morning Extended Forecast Discussion from the WPC, you'll notice how the models have widely varying solutions right now, so before we start looking too closely, we need to wait a day or three and see how things evolve. As long as we can keep the rain train going, our winter weather chances rise up a little bit. Can I get a "Rise Up!". ๐Ÿ™‚ I hope everyone has a great Monday and a great work week. Hang in there teachers.... you're break is coming soon!
  45. 8 points
    OK! I kinda hijacked the weather discussion here.... time to get back on track! I'll post a few GFS ensemble images that I want you to hold on to, because we're going to compare these with the ones coming up in two days. If you read the daily post, you saw that the ensembles were trending snowier for Blairsville, so let's see how they do for other locations. I cannot possibly include every location, so I tried to get a scattered few. I may add a couple more but that will be it. The one thing that stands out to me are the very heavy snow amounts. It's one thing to see a bunch of 2-5" amounts, but multiple members with 10" or more is extremely unusual for Georgia. I just think that no one really understands where this is headed. ๐Ÿ˜‰
  46. 8 points
    Anyone getting excited now? ๐Ÿ™‚
  47. 8 points
    New to the site! Excited to follow the information!
  48. 8 points
    Good Sunday morning to you! Another chilly morning after the overnight rain. Today won't be too bad, but Monday through Wednesday look to be great. The rain returns Thursday BUT... after that, things start to go downhill very quickly as arctic air comes blasting in next weekend. Once this happens, it's not going anywhere for quite a while. Lots of exciting things on the horizon and I can't remember when I've been more excited about winter. All of the pieces are falling into place and I truly believe this is going to be a winter that goes on the record books for the southeast. Bold statement? Maybe. But based on what is going on and what is expected to follow, it may not be bold enough, we'll see. If you haven't been following the thread about the upcoming period, you need to be! Here's an image I shared this morning. This is the GFS ensemble showing surface temperature anomalies over a 16 day period, and each block is one day. Keep in mind, these anomalies are in centigrade... covert those to "F" and these are brutal cold.
  49. 8 points
    I'm excited b/c you said when you get excited, we can get excited!!!!! I can't wait!!!!!
  50. 8 points
    I know everyone is really tired of the warm (but pretty normal) weather we've had for part of December. I do understand. I won't talk about how this was pretty much in every forecast, because I know you don't want to hear it now, so instead I'll talk about what I see going on and why I believe that we are entering a very exciting time. I am excited about the upcoming period. When I say period I mean from basically now through the end of February. There are going to be some exciting times ahead as we progress into a volatile winter pattern. Think about this. None of the winter forecast had an early season Major SSW, yet almost all forecast showed a cold winter with above normal snowfall. Now you add the affects from a major event like this SSW on top of everything else that's going on, and you have a recipe for a winter to remember. Keep in mind, the models are not infallible and are sometimes VERY wrong in what they show. Even the highly touted Euro fails. The main thing for the moment is don't bother looking past 5 days at any of the operational models... they are going to be wrong for now. Think about it this way. If I throw one pebble in a calm pond, it's going to be easy to predict the wave motion. If I throw 50 in a once, how hard do you think that will be to predict? It's no different with weather. If the patterns are relatively stable, the forecast accuracy will be high, once the pattern gets volatile, the accuracy goes down. The more variables you throw in to the mix, the tougher it gets. Most of the time, the stratosphere has little practical impact at the surface, but in the winter during SSW's, it can have a MAJOR impact, and the models struggle with how to handle that. There is a limited amount of stratospheric data for the models to use in generating forecast and even less certainty on the practical affects at the surface, so the models end up all over the place. But here is what I'm looking for. The first thing I want to see are the signs of the high latitude blocking, and that will flip around for a while. Start looking at the teleconnection patterns. Do you want to see what major high latitude blocking looks like? This is the GFS ensembles from the last run yesterday, and this is the Arctic Oscillation (AO). When the AO goes negative, it means that the PV has been displaced from the polar region and instead replaced by high pressure. If the PV is displaced, so is the cold. Notice the extreme dive in the index. Arctic Oscillation (AO) And this is the general result In case you'd like more information, take a look at my Arctic Oscillation page for more information http://www.daculaweather.com/4_ao_index.php North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) There is one more piece that we need in terms of blocking, and that's a negative NAO, and again, the last run from the ensemble yesterday took that deeply negative as well. More information on my NAO page http://www.daculaweather.com/4_nao_index.php East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) But wait! ๐Ÿ™‚ There is another block piece that we need... a negative EPO. Without the -EPO, the continental US gets flooded with warm Pacific air. Not good. So we want to see a negative EPO. Again, the ensemble run from yesterday as well as a link to my EPO page and a colorful example. ๐Ÿ™‚ Notice the extreme step-down of the EPO. So the point is, you have to look past the everyday models and look at the bigger picture. I know I've posted a lot about the strat warming, but that is because of the potentially significant effects it will have on our winter. It is the "amplifier" to what was going to happen to start with, and those original winter forecast were for a pretty good winter. So add all of these things together, and we should be in for a great Jan/Feb period. So hang in there... if I'm excited, you should be excited as well!
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