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  1. 9 points
  2. 7 points
    Good morning! Today will be a transition day as the sun goes back behind the clouds and the rain returns. The bigger picture this morning shows the rain off to our west while moisture at the higher levels starts streaming in. There is a chance that some may see a little rain today, but generally the rain will hold off until the early morning hours on Monday. The first image is rainfall through 7 PM Monday and the second image goes through 7 AM Thursday. Snow. The other four letter word. πŸ™‚ The models are still showing some potential for some very light snow/flurries across the top tier of counties in Georgia, and the resulting snow would be similar to the last event, maybe a little less as there just isn't a lot of moisture to work with. NOT A FORECAST I'll be keeping an eye on it in case there are some slight changes but I wouldn't expect anything big. The low responsible for the weather will be passing to our west, so our only hope is wrap around moisture as the low departs, and that never works out too well for us here. Snow is in the grids as far south as my house in Gwinnett, so we'll see how it goes. We will be getting colder though. Temperature anomalies go from this on Tuesday morning... To this on Thursday morning. Thursday AM Friday AM Saturday AM Sunday AM On Monday, Florida looks like s sore thumb with temperatures almost 20 degrees below normal. So get out and enjoy what's left of the sunshine, it won't be around for long today and you probably won't see it again until next Thursday and Friday! I hope everyone has a great Sunday! I will be celebrating another year on this planet and another lap around the sun today, and I am truly blessed to be doing this for you. Thank you for following me while I journey through this life! πŸ˜‡ πŸŽ‚
  3. 6 points
    I've got a lot of miles on me. The earth travels 584,000,000 miles in a year in its trek around the sun. I've been 37,960,000,000 miles. No need for anyone to do any calculations... 😜 I go around the sun fast. πŸ™‚
  4. 5 points
    Good morning! As you have probably noticed, the rain has returned this morning. I know... you're most favorite thing right now. πŸ˜› WPC rainfall through tuesday 7 PM But winter is not over just yet, and there are several chances, minor as they may be, for some winter precipitation across the north Georgia mountains. As usual, the GFS and Canadian show more snow and the Euro less. This situation will not be much different than the other two as we're counting on wrap around moisture to bring the snow. And again, the snow will be confined to the higher elevations of the mountains. These are the GFS, Canadian, and Euro ensembles through Sunday. NOT A FORECAST We going to keep watching both systems, we are still days away, especially for the weekend version, so there will be changes. It will be getting much cooler though, and from Thursday through Monday, we'll see temperatures well below normal. The three major models in principle. So rain today and tomorrow, then drying out and cooling off with several minor chances of winter precip for the far north. I know this rain makes you feel right at home. πŸ™‚ Have a great Monday!
  5. 5 points
    Fox 5 mentioned the lake effect potential. Pretty cool if it verifies. Also, can I get a 2 hour delay tomorrow?!
  6. 5 points
    Snow at Woody Gap. GDOTs been here.
  7. 4 points
    Oh hey GFS, way to join the party.... not getting excited.. YET... 😝
  8. 4 points
    I've got to say... I'm starting to get a little fired up about the snow potential for Saturday. The models are bringing more snow and to places further south, they definitely have my interest now. Let's see how the models do over the next 24 hours. NOT A FORECAST And the ensembles
  9. 4 points
    I've got the best followers a person could ask for! πŸ™‚ Thanks to everyone!
  10. 4 points
    Got your answer. Thanks to your video, the NWS made this statement. Thank you for sharing that video. πŸ™‚
  11. 4 points
    Good morning! It's just a little bit cold outside right now as that big yellow ball starts to rise in the sky. I've got to run out this morning to meet some movers at a storage room we have, they are bringing some of my parents belongings up here from Sarasota, so I will come back later and finish this post. I'll have some more thoughts on the potential for winter weather and a nice shot of cold air for the end of next week. Time is running out... we've got to make something happen or all hope may be gone until next winter. See 'ya in a little while! 😎
  12. 4 points
    Good morning! Did everyone survive the "Southern Slider'? πŸ™‚ Wicked storm it was.... So now we move on as we struggle to dig out. You might get 5 days to recover before we get buried again. 😜 You have three days of sunshine before the rain returns, so you have to get out while you can. Here's a look at temperatures across north Georgia this morning. It will be a cool day today but at least there won't be any rain. Can you imagine that? These are our high temps today. And while it's a little cold this morning, it will be colder tomorrow morning. We will gradually warm up over the next several days though and that warm up will also bring a return of the moisture. You notice I didn't say "rain". I do believe that it has become a new four letter word so I'll try to avoid cursing in front of the kids. πŸ™‚ As we alluded to yesterday, the models are sniffing out another system for next week, and they teased us with some big snow runs yesterday. Let's take a look at the three major models to see what they are seeing. The 500 mb anomalies tell the tale. Several upper level troughs interact and phase over the central part of the country and that is always exciting this time of the year. This type of interaction can bring severe weather as well as snow, so it is something that needs to be watched closely. So in no particular order, here are the 500 mb anomalies The pattern is a little more amplified than it has been, and I think gives us a better chance at having some cold to go along with the moisture. Phasing of two systems is always intriguing to me. The interaction that occurs can sometimes be spectacular and somewhat unpredictable, so this will be very interesting to watch unfold. I can't promise anything at the moment, but I do think it is interesting that all three models are generally seeing the same thing this far out, and I think the potential for this to become something is pretty good at this moment in time. We'll keep an eye on it for you! I hope everyone has a great Friday!
  13. 4 points
  14. 4 points
  15. 4 points
  16. 4 points
    All rain at the moment but we are down to 34.2 with a dewpoint of 29 in Sky Valley.
  17. 4 points
    Good morning! Lingering showers are the forecast for this morning as the front slowly sags south. To the north colder ir and to the south, it is much warmer. The battle line has been drawn. Let's get right to the chances for a few people seeing some snow. First, the NWS Atlanta thoughts. The WPC has the northeast corner of the state as the area with the highest probability of seeing accumulating snow. For a minute, let's assume the NAM 3km is somewhat correct in its depiction of the actual event. Rain would start changing over to freezing rain starting around 6-7 AM tomorrow for the higher elevations. The precip would be very light with some of it not reaching the ground initially. The pink areas are below freezing, and as you can see, much of the area is at or above freezing with a cold rain falling. This continues for a couple more hours. Initially temperatures drop due to evaporational cooling, but by now, the atmosphere is saturated and the dewpoint depressions point that out. Evaporational cooling won't help at this point. Keep in mind that the NAM temperatures have warmed since the previous run... trend or not? We'll see. But to me, the profile temperatures are just so marginal while the precip is around that I find it hard to see how most people will see any appreciable snow. Once again, this is the NAM at the 850 mb level. It's critical that this area be below freezing and you can see that for much of the period when the moisture is around. These loops are from 1 AM Thursday through 1 PM Friday. Further down at 925 mb (about 2500 feet) we see these temperatures for the same time period. For those reasons, this is the "official" NW forecast for snow. THIS IS A FORECAST πŸ™‚ Th NAM is overdone with the snow amounts in my opinion and the impacts will not be as great as the NAM snow image would suggest. NOT A FORECAST Right now the road and soil temps are too warm for anything to freeze without a prolonged below freezing period. Snow may accumulate on elevated surfaces and of course bridges and overpasses, so be cautious if you're out driving in it. Road Temperatures Soil Temperatures There could be some freezing on the roadways from runoff later in the day and Thursday evening. After all this rain, water is still running across roadways and temperatures will get very cold Thursday night. See how that most of the below freezing temperatures during the day are confined to the higher elevations in the mountains. So that's it. I do not think we'll see what we saw last time, I just don't believe the temperatures support that happening again. We'll be following this throughout the day, so please keep checking back, you never know what might happen! Have a great day!
  18. 4 points
  19. 4 points
    Good morning! Light rain falling across north Georgia this morning but the heavier area is to our south for a change. I know... no one cares about the rain at this point. πŸ™‚ As for Thursday, I think a few of the counties across the top of north Georgia are going to see some of the white stuff, especially across the higher peaks of the mountains. πŸ™‚ The overnight model runs all seem to be in closer agreement as to what may happen, and If it does snow, it certainly won't be much. The temperatures just don't quite get to where they need to be to get any meaningful winter precipitation. 850 mb temps are above freezing part part of the time the models are showing snow, so that's not a good sign for seeing the white stuff falling to the ground. We're now within range of some of the higher resolution models such as the NAM 3km, and it's bringing an inch or so to the two top rows of counties. NOT A FORECAST It never gets cold enough at the surface on the Euro to bring anything meaningful, and even the ensemble is meh. NOT A FORECAST Here are the temps for Blairsville from the Euro ensembles and you can see that there may only be a very brief window of opportunity. Based on what I've seen of the overnight runs, the top two counties have a chance to see some flurries and maybe even some snow that sticks to elevated surfaces, but the temperature profiles just aren't as good as the last system we experienced, so I don't expect too much in the way of snow. NWS Atlanta has the same thoughts. As for today... Rainfall amounts through 7 PM Thursday look like this. Sorry I don't have news of a big snowstorm, just tryin' to keep it real. I love snow as much as the next person, but unfortunately, me wishing for it won't make it happen. We'll keep watching it for any changes in terms of profile temperatures as we get closer, as those are the hangups right now. As always, check back for the latest updates! I hope everyone has a great Tuesday! Stay dry! πŸ™‚
  20. 4 points
    So I'm not saying this is significant but it is at least interesting. A meteorologist who posts on AmWx has been tracking model performance on SE winter storms when they are split, and this is the results he's got. This only goes back to December 2016 so not a significant sample size, but interesting nonetheless.
  21. 3 points
    I will admit to not having paid much attention to this, is it trending in any way right now? I wrote it off early thinking the trough would be centered too far east to allow much moisture at all into the system. Thought we'd be lucky to squeeze out a tenth of an inch liquid with Saturday.
  22. 3 points
  23. 3 points
    This is probably the best look from the models I've think I've seen this winter. Again, we're still several days away before we know for sure, but it will be fun to watch regardless.
  24. 3 points
    Thanks to all of you!!! πŸ™‚
  25. 3 points
    Well, I'm back! πŸ™‚ Yes. some cold and some potential for winter weather. I was just looking at the models and I'll have an update here shortly.
  26. 3 points
    Here are the ensembles. GFS, Euro (mean and control), and Canadian. All show the same date. The left image is most current, the right image is previous. It's pretty remarkable how close they are.
  27. 3 points
    So how's it looking for the end of next week
  28. 3 points
    Jordan, these are height anomalies at the 500 mb level, which is roughly 18,000 feet in altitude. This is the level you watch for the general weather pattern. It is similar to highs/lows at the surface, except for the upper levels. The reason it's important is that these are the levels that steer the surface patterns. Notice in the animations above, how several upper level lows (the blue features) combine and then slow down and explode in strength. That is called phasing and that happens when two smaller features combine into one much stronger system. The timing and location helps to determine the eventual strength and track, and of course for us, track is VERY important. We want to see those features combine at a lower latitude and track to our south, so right now not a perfect setup for us, yet wouldn't preclude snow. So watch we're watching now are those 500 mb patterns and where those upper level lows (ULL's look more like blue bowling balls) go as well as the upper level troughs (the more broad areas of lower pressures), and the corresponding areas of high pressure. That's the general idea and I've fluffed over a lot. There are many things we could talk about such as placement these features and how that translates to teleconnection patterns, but that's another post. πŸ™‚
  29. 3 points
    I was looking at the last two runs since the 3 amigos (gfs euro and Canadian) tried to make us all break the vow we just made NOT to follow the models every run with their snow promise. Order seems to have somewhat been restored with the models with much of the cold following behind any moisture as the usual winter pattern in the south? Where there were mucho snow predicted now just el poco
  30. 3 points
    A snow event does me no good on the weekend. Looking for a Monday-Thursday kind of window, here...
  31. 3 points
    Good morning! This is an "early" morning edition. πŸ™‚ It's 3:04 AM and do you know where your children are? 😜 Here's the current big picture. I was going to post a bunch of images from the HRRR and NAM but the more I started thinking about it, the more I thought against it. It's a lot or work for less than an inch of snow for the vast majority of people. Here's the way I see things happening. I don't think anyone will see anything frozen before 10-11 AM. After that, the NAM and HRRR start to differ on upper air temperatures with the NAM being a little colder. The HRRR doesn't even have 925 mb to surface temps below freezing until late in the evening. The bottom line is that it is just going to be too warm for most people to see much of anything. We just won't have enough cold air at all the necessary levels to produce much snow. As NWS MRX said it "While relatively heavy precipitation rates will dynamically cool the atmosphere and low levels today, there is still a considerable thermal barrier to overcome in the low levels for any accumulating snowfall to occur." That's my take on it. As always, follow your local forecast office for official information. In this case, I think the "official" NWS forecast is a good one. I believe that late this evening when things finally do drop below freezing for the mountainous areas, black ice will be a problem, but other than that, this is much ado about nothing the way I see it. Right now at 3:34 AM the below freezing air is a LONG way off as you can see by the red line. The wedge is trying to form and the pressure signature is evident in this image. I'll have updates all day, and I will have images showing where the cold air is located so you'll have a heads up before any frozen precipitation starts. Back in a little while...
  32. 3 points
    Waiting on that 18z like 😬😬😬😬
  33. 3 points
    I refuse to even get slightly excited about what the models show next week but ughhh it’s beautiful
  34. 3 points
    I'm really hoping the Euro doesn't drop this one like Tom Crean with a 20 point lead.
  35. 3 points
    2.6" in Sky Valley now but snow is lightening up.
  36. 3 points
    Go ahead just 6 & 12 more hours:
  37. 3 points
    City of Sky Valley is out and about, they just plowed our neighborhood and it is a priority 3 road within the city. Best small town road crew around!
  38. 3 points
    Sky Valley at 2pm. 1.2” of snow.
  39. 3 points
  40. 3 points
    Saw a video on Twitter from WSBTV meteorologist that showed snow mixing in DT Atlanta. Kinda cool
  41. 3 points
    Snowing in Rabun Gap, at least at 2500 elevation.
  42. 3 points
    Most liberal use of the word "airport" known to man. lol
  43. 3 points
    We're rooting for you Kevin! You can do it!
  44. 3 points
    Rain just now starting to mix with snow in Hiawassee.
  45. 3 points
    I know this storm isn't going to turn out the way we want it to but it has been fun and now fascinating to watch this unfold. I guess just for the fun of it.. my weather station in Buford 3 miles NE of the Mall of GA is sitting at 38.4 with a dew point of 38.
  46. 3 points
    Very nice! Should get the flip soon. Seen a report from Cashiers just up the road from you that it is snowing.
  47. 3 points
    I don't understand the Euro and snow. Here's the first 3 hour period where the Euro is showing a good patch of snow and this is 1 PM Thursday These are the temperatures, note nowhere is it below freezing "except" maybe at the highest elevations. The dewpoint depressions are nonexistent, so no help there. 925 mb temps for the most part are above freezing except for a few areas. 850's aren't much better, and 1C below freezing is generally not enough cold to make a flake. So why is the Euro showing this for 3 hour snow totals?
  48. 3 points
    Yep! it has been fun for the last few days. On to the next... maybe!
  49. 3 points
    With such a flat zonal flow, it will all come down to how far south the cooler air can push while the moisture is around.
  50. 3 points
    GDOT must be feeling some kinda way. I spotted a brine truck headed down 985 south from Gainesville.
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