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Showing content with the highest reputation since 12/06/2018 in all areas

  1. 11 points
    Seeing as we're quoting Bon Jovi, things are kinda iffy weather wise, and I have nothing at the moment to contribute to the analytical discussion let's try a bit of humor.... Living on a Prayer (Southern Winter Re-Mix) Once upon a time not so long ago NOAA used to work around the clock, staff's been on furlough And we’re down on our luck, it's tough, so tough Steve looks at the models all day, looking for a way He tries to bring us hope, for snow, for snow He says, we've got to hold on to the trends we’ve got It doesn't matter if the CAD’s in place or not We've got the ensembles that's a lot, for snow We'll give it a shot Woah, the model's are flip/flopping everywhere Woah, livin' on a prayer Believe in the Polar Vortex, a lobe will get here I swear Woah, livin' on a prayer Spann’s got his suspenders on cocked Now he’s reigning us in with his tough talk It's tough, so tough We dream of 10:1 ratios When we whine on the forums, Steve whispers Guys, it’ll be okay, someday We've got to hold on to the -NAO It doesn't make a difference if the wedge is in place or not We've got a southern slider and that's a lot for snow We'll give it a shot Woah, the suppression’s almost there Woah, livin' on a prayer Cold’s chasing rain, it’ll make it Steve swears Woah, livin' on a prayer Livin' on a prayer Oh, we've got to hold on, dew points low enough or not You live for the flurry when it's all that you've got Woah, the trends are almost there Woah, livin' in the South Take the clipper, it’ll snow I swear Woah, livin' on a prayer……… Steve, please feel free to remove if I'm straying a bit too far from the discussion 😃
  2. 10 points
    Ok folks... I'm thinking the Euro is on to something between the 26th-29th. There is support from the ensemble mean and the control run, and we are fully in the blocking at that point. It's a long way off but I think we may be on to something. Expect the operational to keep moving around, so don't put a lot of faith in that just yet, but we'll keep watching. 🙂 Here we go!
  3. 9 points
    Good morning to you! Well... you are gonna have great weather for the next 3 days! That's the big story isn't it? No? OK... no one cares or even thinks about the weather when it's sunny and nice, it just is what it is. But, when there is a chance of snow... people come out of the woodwork. Gotta love winter in the south. 🙂 So... I will repost my comment from this morning right here. This from the Atlanta NWS office We are still three days away, and there will be changes in the models, but I think the changes will be small. So here is what I think. Keep in mind, this is not official, and only my best guess. With that being said, the Euro has been the most consistent in what it's showing, so I'm going with that solution right now. I believe the Gulf wave will be stronger based on persistence, as we haven't seen weak Gulf waves at all this winter. Here's roughly what I think will happen. This solution has very good ensemble support right now and it seems the snow amounts over Georgia have increased slightly over the previous runs. Below is the ensemble mean and you can see how the general thought is the same. Remember, this is an average of 51 different runs. There is a snow hole to the NE where the mountains block the incoming cold air, and that area may have reduced probabilities of winter weather. We're just a little too far out for the snow probability maps for us, but this goes through 7 am Tuesday, ours comes later in the day. This shows the probability of >=1" of snow. So that is my first guess on what might happen. Again, I don't make the forecast, that's the job of the National Weather Service so take this with a HUGE grain of salt. No wait.... salt melts ice and snow. Take it with an ice cube. ❄️
  4. 9 points
    As Forum Pastor I adorn my cloak----- and cite my Prayer for all our Teachers Oh Lord, let it snow. Let it drift and let it blow. In the morning, no real fuss, Just enough to stop the bus. Enough to make the county say: "There will be no school today." Let the radio report: "Snow's deep!" And I'll roll over for more sleep. Then later on, say maybe ten, I'll turn the radio on again. Just in time to hear them say: "It's strange, the snow has gone away." And then I'll know, You made it stop. So I can go to the mall and shop. Please Lord, just hear my teacher's plea, And make it snow for the kids and me.
  5. 8 points
    Me too. Kind of how I don't get excited no matter how much UGA is up on Bama
  6. 8 points
    New to the site! Excited to follow the information!
  7. 7 points
    And if this one is jinxed, I'll lt someone else start the next one. We need some good mojo.
  8. 7 points
    No, at the rate we're going, it's every man for themselves! 😁
  9. 7 points
    Fort Mountain just a little East of Chatsworth
  10. 7 points
    Game on! Weatherbell Daily Video Update
  11. 6 points
    Good morning to everyone! Hope everyone had a great weekend! Well... the work week starts off wet and cool, it seems like that's the story of our weather this winter. Here's a look at this mornings radar, and we can see one area of rain moving out with a gap in between the next area of rain. The next 48 hours should bring us rainfall totals that look like this. Looking ahead, the Euro is bringing cooler temperatures beginning Saturday. Sunday 1 pm temps By Tuesday morning, the Euro develops a stout wedge in advance of a strong cold front In the morning hours the front pushes through. We need to watch this for the potential for severe weather. With very warm temps and high dew points, this strong clash of air masses can create some very strong thunderstorms. But all of that is many days off, so you can bet it will all be wrong, 😜 and THAT is the story of our winter. 🙂 So get out today and enjoy our Georgia winter weather! 😄
  12. 6 points
    I was going to rant on their FB page if they didn't. Congrats guys! Even if you get no snow, you get a day off. 🙂 We can count that as a snow day, right?
  13. 6 points
    Welcome aboard! It's a great no drama, fun place to learn.
  14. 6 points
  15. 6 points
    15 out of 21 are promising for a snow wisher (at least in extreme N GA). Everything is looking good! P.S. My wife and I are from Michigan. We only want ONE big storm and then we've had enough snow lol. Also, our tires are due for an upgrade. All this winter weather wishing might come back to bite me in the butt lol. A quick thank you to the plethora of teachers in here! I'm extremely passionate about weather and it's cool to be around so many educator's as the former pain in the ass class clown!
  16. 6 points
    Yep. And that's why I've tried to make the point to not pay much attention to the operational model runs. Someone on the FB page asked me about Toccoa and they were panicking because they didn't see any snow on the model run. So I showed the ensemble chart for there and almost every run had snow except the control run. So if if a person only looks at the operational runs, they miss the other 20 GFS runs that might show something. As much as we'd like to pick out the details right now, they are changing too much to make any sense out of them. That's the purpose of the ensembles. I'll say it again, it's all about the trends right now, not the details. We are going to have winter weather. Whether it's this weekend or next week or the following week... it's coming. The details will emerge very soon.
  17. 6 points
    Gimme gimme!!!!! I love watching these things play out! I’ll take whatever is enough to shut schools down, and whatever over that is a fun bonus!!!!
  18. 6 points
    "This has the potential to be the most severe 30-60 day period since the 1970's". Joe Bastardi Let's see if that comes true.
  19. 5 points
    Good Sunday morning! Saturday's weather turned out pretty nice and today and most of tomorrow will be the same. There maybe some clouds and a little light rain overnight but nothing to write home about. The big map (water vapor and 500 mb heights) this morning shows a pair of upper level lows, one near the west coast and one near the east coast with a trough digging across the central US. The upper New England states have some pretty cold temperatures this morning with many locations in the single digits. Our next "real" chance for rain will be toward the end of next week. Looking ahead toward Thanksgiving, this is meteorologist Larry Cosgrove... Most all the models now keep the below normal temperatures through at least the Thanksgiving period. And... looking ahead further... Weatherbell took a look at all of the cold Novembers (like this one) back to 1980 and then looked at the temp anomalies for Dec-Mar and it came out like this. Ironically, many of the analog years that people are looking at came out like this. So winter is approaching, the multitude of signs are looking good, and I think based on what we're seeing at the present moment, we are going to have an excellent chance for a good winter across north Georgia. The presence of all of the upper level lows, assuming they continue, gives us increased chances for a winter storm across the southeast. Who is ready? 🙂 Ready or not... winter is coming! I hope everyone has a very awesome Sunday! Winter begins in 34 Days a wind has blown the rain away and blown the sky away and all the leaves away, and the trees stand. I think i too have known autumn too long.–E. E. Cummings (1894–1962)
  20. 5 points
    Oh good lord I want off this ride, I was hoping Marietta would see some snow.
  21. 5 points
  22. 5 points
    I just registered and I have been following the other thread for a couple weeks. Snow gets me and my family excited but My brother in law is getting married feb 2nd. Is this when the potential for winter weather is gonna be?
  23. 5 points
    I have read multiple mets today saying we should see below average temps into March. What sucks is having below average to average temps with little to no chance at moisture for such a prolonged period of time. If it is going to stay cold with no chance for winter weather I would rather it warm up sooner than later.
  24. 5 points
    Just walked back I the door. I'm late for my workout, so give me just a little while! Sorry! But... If that happened, it would look like this NOT A FORECAST
  25. 5 points
    I have lived here all my life and from my memory we do tend to have a warm up prior to snow storms....
  26. 5 points
    Yep, both models now showing surface temps below -10 in the mountains. Incredible.... I'm absolutely pulling for a big snow before or after that, but the weather geek in me would be nearly as happy seeing just this arctic outbreak. This is truly a historic cold outbreak if the models are anywhere close to being right.
  27. 5 points
    I was looking on Tropical tidbits looking at a radar probably about 2 weeks out and it would like almost the whole state of Georgia had snow
  28. 5 points
    Good morning to everyone! I'm getting anxious with anticipation. So I know how everyone feels, at least those that want to see some some snow. I do like seeing the area to our north getting covered in snow, because that just means that the cold air will be colder when it arrives here. The snow pack drops surface temps considerably compared to bare ground, so as the cold air passes over, it doesn't get a chance to warm up like it normally would. Here is the current snow cover map. More snow will be laid down between now and Sunday to reinforce the snow that's already there. Before we get to Sunday, there will be rain and a chance for some thunder, and that thunder may include a low chance for a tornado, so this is something we need to watch over the next several days. The rain starts Thursday and will continue all the way into Sunday with another 0.5"-2" of rain for some folks. Sunday is when the big flip begins. Cold air will come rushing in behind the front and give the northern tier of counties a possible dusting of snow. We're not looking for any warm days for a while after Sunday, so don't get use to the temperatures this week. I think the Euro is more correct on the temps compared to the GFS, and apparently the NWS does too. Official NWS Forecast for Monday morning lows Euro GFS
  29. 5 points
    Yes, I think you'll see some snow from it. It won't be anything major, but it will kick off the winter flip for you!
  30. 5 points
    I have heard people say they are sick of the snow in the northeast. Not sure too many of us would get to that point down here. Hopefully our snow enthusiasm gets tested this year!!!
  31. 5 points
    I'm not a teacher by far but I have worked with the preschool program at a local daycare for years. I would spend my time getting them prepared to move on to the real teachers....you guys!
  32. 5 points
    Steve, your doing a awsome job by keeping us informed esspically me. I read your blog every morning. And I'm sorry other are being rude or think your God and can make weather happen.but your not. And the thing about the weather men and women on tv. They only talk about weather 5 to 7 days out. So something king range as the cold weather coming or ETC. You will only hear about it just a few days out. So for all the people who are being negative. Just relax. And let the weather happen. Becuase I find it very interesting to see what's in store. What could happen and what wont happened. Winter is only 10 daya old. We have 2 1/2 months left of winter. Plenty of time to let "Winter" happen. We all know for the ones who live in Ga. It can be 70° with severe storms 1 day and wake up the next morning with 2 inches of snow on the ground...
  33. 4 points
    Good Thursday morning to you! Man, wasn't yesterday great! Today will be pretty much the same except with more clouds, but later tonight and into the morning hours we will see showers and thunderstorms, with some of those thunderstorms being severe. Here's the 4:46 am update from the Atlanta NWS office: http://wx.northgeorgiawx.com/ffc_afd_rec.html/ The Storm Prediction Center says this in their Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spc_day2_outlook.php On one hand, we are very fortunate to have this come through during the late night/early morning hours, as the weaker instability due to lack of atmospheric heating will reduce the potential for higher storm intensities. On the other hand... any storms that can maintain sufficient strength will be capable of damaging winds or even a tornado, and tornadoes at night are a bad combination, especially in areas where trees and hills can hide their existence. Make sure you have your phone or other methods of receiving alerts near your bed tonight. Hope you took advantage of these couple of warm days... 'cause Friday and Saturday are going to be much cooler. Highs Friday Highs Saturday Those Saturday highs are WELL below normal for this time of the year, while the low anomalies aren't quite as bad. Saturday High Temp Anomalies Saturday and Sunday Low Temp Anomalies Temperatures rebound quickly on Sunday back into the mid 70's and we should have sunny skies and highs near 80 through Wednesday. I've created a new page I call "Today's Severe Weather Climatology". All the images come from the Storm Prediction Center and are display the historical probabilities for various severe weather modes like wind, hail, tornadoes, any severe, etc. on a given date. It's a quick way to see all of the images at once for any given date. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spc_today_climo.php I'll be following the severe weather potential today and if it looks to be a little stronger than anticipated, I'll create a new post for it, otherwise I'll post the updates here.
  34. 4 points
    This is not February but I just realized I had saved a time lapse video of Snow Jam 2.
  35. 4 points
  36. 4 points
    Glenn Burns did a nice, responsible FB post. He let people know that the models were showing extreme cold and that it is better to be ready for it, in case it plays out. He gave some tips for having alternate power sources, etc. He also reminded people that if their furnace goes out, people can't assume there will be hotel rooms available, due to the Super Bowl. All in all, it was just kind of a friendly heads up.
  37. 4 points
    Out of the top 20 Atlanta snows, 5 days in advance, 8 had high temperatures 50 or above, and 4 of those were in the 60's and the last one was 70º. That one happened to be the 1993 Storm of The Century. BUT WAIT..... Out of the top 20 Atlanta snows, 8 of those had highs the DAY BEFORE the snow of 50 degrees or above, with four of those in the 60's. So the temps leading up aren't as critical as you may think.
  38. 4 points
    I don't really care if we get the extreme cold. I just definitely want the snow!
  39. 4 points
    That was pretty cool Steve that you were mentioned like that!! Thanks again for sharing all of this with us, I truly appreciate your knowledge! I’m just trying not to get my hopes up...don’t want to get disappointed. Of me of little faith 😂😂
  40. 4 points
  41. 4 points
  42. 4 points
    We get it, you are skeptical on the pattern change. However if you are going to say let it get under 100 hours and then we will talk, then why come on here when it is outside of 100 hours and bash what is being said with VERY elementary statements? It makes a little more sense because you live south of Atlanta and even when colder weather sets in, it may not have near as an effect on you in your location than it does people further to the north (especially in the mountains). It can be an emotional thing if you love winter weather in Georgia, particularly in your location, even when a lot of North GA gets snow in events, you get left out there a decent amount of the time. So I can understand you skepticism but if you can't back up your skepticism with facts, model guidance, or legitimate questions than why bother? But main point, we get it, you are skeptical, that is your opinion, no need to beat a dead horse.
  43. 4 points
    Yep. I think we'll see a number of these.
  44. 4 points
    Calvin and Hobbes this morning... kinda sums it up. On to the next one.
  45. 3 points
    Sunrise over the Smokies
  46. 3 points
    Some good thoughts this morning from the Atlanta NWS office
  47. 3 points
    Last nights 0z GFS tells me all I need to know about that model. That was one of the single worst model runs I’ve ever seen in my life of being completely off its rocker. GFS past more than a few days is straight garbage, and it’s even worse than normal right now.
  48. 3 points
    I’m happy people are thinking about the dangers of the cold ahead! Right now is the time to prepare!
  49. 3 points
  50. 3 points
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