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Showing content with the highest reputation since 01/20/2019 in all areas

  1. 11 points
    Seeing as we're quoting Bon Jovi, things are kinda iffy weather wise, and I have nothing at the moment to contribute to the analytical discussion let's try a bit of humor.... Living on a Prayer (Southern Winter Re-Mix) Once upon a time not so long ago NOAA used to work around the clock, staff's been on furlough And we’re down on our luck, it's tough, so tough Steve looks at the models all day, looking for a way He tries to bring us hope, for snow, for snow He says, we've got to hold on to the trends we’ve got It doesn't matter if the CAD’s in place or not We've got the ensembles that's a lot, for snow We'll give it a shot Woah, the model's are flip/flopping everywhere Woah, livin' on a prayer Believe in the Polar Vortex, a lobe will get here I swear Woah, livin' on a prayer Spann’s got his suspenders on cocked Now he’s reigning us in with his tough talk It's tough, so tough We dream of 10:1 ratios When we whine on the forums, Steve whispers Guys, it’ll be okay, someday We've got to hold on to the -NAO It doesn't make a difference if the wedge is in place or not We've got a southern slider and that's a lot for snow We'll give it a shot Woah, the suppression’s almost there Woah, livin' on a prayer Cold’s chasing rain, it’ll make it Steve swears Woah, livin' on a prayer Livin' on a prayer Oh, we've got to hold on, dew points low enough or not You live for the flurry when it's all that you've got Woah, the trends are almost there Woah, livin' in the South Take the clipper, it’ll snow I swear Woah, livin' on a prayer……… Steve, please feel free to remove if I'm straying a bit too far from the discussion 😃
  2. 9 points
    Good morning to you! Well... you are gonna have great weather for the next 3 days! That's the big story isn't it? No? OK... no one cares or even thinks about the weather when it's sunny and nice, it just is what it is. But, when there is a chance of snow... people come out of the woodwork. Gotta love winter in the south. 🙂 So... I will repost my comment from this morning right here. This from the Atlanta NWS office We are still three days away, and there will be changes in the models, but I think the changes will be small. So here is what I think. Keep in mind, this is not official, and only my best guess. With that being said, the Euro has been the most consistent in what it's showing, so I'm going with that solution right now. I believe the Gulf wave will be stronger based on persistence, as we haven't seen weak Gulf waves at all this winter. Here's roughly what I think will happen. This solution has very good ensemble support right now and it seems the snow amounts over Georgia have increased slightly over the previous runs. Below is the ensemble mean and you can see how the general thought is the same. Remember, this is an average of 51 different runs. There is a snow hole to the NE where the mountains block the incoming cold air, and that area may have reduced probabilities of winter weather. We're just a little too far out for the snow probability maps for us, but this goes through 7 am Tuesday, ours comes later in the day. This shows the probability of >=1" of snow. So that is my first guess on what might happen. Again, I don't make the forecast, that's the job of the National Weather Service so take this with a HUGE grain of salt. No wait.... salt melts ice and snow. Take it with an ice cube. ❄️
  3. 8 points
    Me too. Kind of how I don't get excited no matter how much UGA is up on Bama
  4. 7 points
    And if this one is jinxed, I'll lt someone else start the next one. We need some good mojo.
  5. 7 points
    No, at the rate we're going, it's every man for themselves! 😁
  6. 6 points
    Good morning to everyone! Hope everyone had a great weekend! Well... the work week starts off wet and cool, it seems like that's the story of our weather this winter. Here's a look at this mornings radar, and we can see one area of rain moving out with a gap in between the next area of rain. The next 48 hours should bring us rainfall totals that look like this. Looking ahead, the Euro is bringing cooler temperatures beginning Saturday. Sunday 1 pm temps By Tuesday morning, the Euro develops a stout wedge in advance of a strong cold front In the morning hours the front pushes through. We need to watch this for the potential for severe weather. With very warm temps and high dew points, this strong clash of air masses can create some very strong thunderstorms. But all of that is many days off, so you can bet it will all be wrong, 😜 and THAT is the story of our winter. 🙂 So get out today and enjoy our Georgia winter weather! 😄
  7. 6 points
    Yes it will change. To no snow and 80°
  8. 6 points
    I was going to rant on their FB page if they didn't. Congrats guys! Even if you get no snow, you get a day off. 🙂 We can count that as a snow day, right?
  9. 6 points
    Welcome aboard! It's a great no drama, fun place to learn.
  10. 6 points
    Also let's make it snow in the middle of the work day again and see how prepared for snow we truly are! Glad I live ten minutes from home now!
  11. 6 points
    This is the best North Georgia specific weather forum I've found. Very knowledgable folks and legitimate information in a class room like setting where everyone no matter experience can chime in and ask questions with no judgement. This past Saturday night I had company over and found myself frequenting this site. My buddies saw some of the complicated weather nerd graphics we share here and didn't understand why I'm so obsessed lol I feel like it's a family over here!
  12. 5 points
    A few nice sunrise images from the Smokies this morning.
  13. 5 points
    Yes, the models are trending cold. The teleconnections for the EPO/AO/NAO are trending toward negative/into negative territory. Add to that the models are indicating changes in the stratosphere. It's starting to look like the flip that we've been waiting for. We'll see.
  14. 5 points
    You are noticeably excited about the possibility of the white stuff!! It’s contagious 😆
  15. 5 points
    Good Sunday morning! Saturday's weather turned out pretty nice and today and most of tomorrow will be the same. There maybe some clouds and a little light rain overnight but nothing to write home about. The big map (water vapor and 500 mb heights) this morning shows a pair of upper level lows, one near the west coast and one near the east coast with a trough digging across the central US. The upper New England states have some pretty cold temperatures this morning with many locations in the single digits. Our next "real" chance for rain will be toward the end of next week. Looking ahead toward Thanksgiving, this is meteorologist Larry Cosgrove... Most all the models now keep the below normal temperatures through at least the Thanksgiving period. And... looking ahead further... Weatherbell took a look at all of the cold Novembers (like this one) back to 1980 and then looked at the temp anomalies for Dec-Mar and it came out like this. Ironically, many of the analog years that people are looking at came out like this. So winter is approaching, the multitude of signs are looking good, and I think based on what we're seeing at the present moment, we are going to have an excellent chance for a good winter across north Georgia. The presence of all of the upper level lows, assuming they continue, gives us increased chances for a winter storm across the southeast. Who is ready? 🙂 Ready or not... winter is coming! I hope everyone has a very awesome Sunday! Winter begins in 34 Days a wind has blown the rain away and blown the sky away and all the leaves away, and the trees stand. I think i too have known autumn too long.–E. E. Cummings (1894–1962)
  16. 5 points
    Good Friday morning to 'ya! It's always nice to start off the month on a Friday. 🙂 I'd play another rainy day song but I've already played them all. 😉 You know the drill... off and on showers for today, some thunderstorms for tomorrow. Here's the latest from the Atlanta NWS office. Here is the next 72 hour rainfall forecast We'll be dropping down into the 20's for 3 nights or so, but nothing to terribly cold for us even though it will be well below normal. Here are the normal highs/lows for this week, and below that are the anomalies. Normal High/Low Temperatures Monday (Low/High Anomaly) Tuesday (Low/High Anomaly) Wednesday (Low/High Anomaly) Thursday (Low/High Anomaly) As you can also see, the high anomalies are greater than the cold anomalies. Enjoy the precip, enjoy the cold, just don't expect to enjoy them at the same time. 🙂 Unless we happen to get a storm of the century, after this cold snap, I officially declare winter to be dead!
  17. 5 points
    Oh good lord I want off this ride, I was hoping Marietta would see some snow.
  18. 5 points
  19. 5 points
    I just registered and I have been following the other thread for a couple weeks. Snow gets me and my family excited but My brother in law is getting married feb 2nd. Is this when the potential for winter weather is gonna be?
  20. 5 points
    I have read multiple mets today saying we should see below average temps into March. What sucks is having below average to average temps with little to no chance at moisture for such a prolonged period of time. If it is going to stay cold with no chance for winter weather I would rather it warm up sooner than later.
  21. 5 points
    Just walked back I the door. I'm late for my workout, so give me just a little while! Sorry! But... If that happened, it would look like this NOT A FORECAST
  22. 4 points
    Speaking of that northeast storm... as promised... I have photos! I am with my parents in the northern end of the Lakes Region, near Moultonborough. This was a tricky storm. We had 90% snow here, but there were definite periods of rain, ice, sleet, and I don't even know what else spewing out of the sky. Some photos ... first, pre-storm! Little bit of snow on the ground in shady, cool places. Second pic is how we woke up yesterday morning, roughly the same view! Third is a view from the back - note the second-growth forest (shorter, thinner, different trees than we have in Georgia where the conditions send trees soaring for the skies in few years) and the pre-colonial rock wall. In the quieter, pastoral parts of the world up here, these are everywhere and very old. This particular wall is on-and-off home to weasels, which will have their white winter coats on now. You almost never see them but you will see their tracks in the snow. You can sometimes follow the tracks into the field uphill and find where they catch something. Fourth - snow is great to look at, but better to play in! This kind of sled crash is what we call a 'yard sale' because of everyone and everything strewn across the landscape. Finally, snow's winding down this morning and the temp is rising a bit, but this frames what we got - for where we are, this is a routine storm and we'd see several of these in a winter. Happy New year to all of you, I am grateful for this site, and I hope to bring just enough of this back home to Georgia with me!
  23. 4 points
    My disclaimer... As always, please refer to the latest official forecast from the National Hurricane Center as well as your local NWS forecast offices. 🙂 I'm here to pass along information from a myriad of sources, not to make a hurricane forecast. It's not my job and I don't get paid to do it. 🙂 If you catch me saying "I think" (which is dangerous in itself), just know those are my personal opinions that carry little to no weight. So if "I think" don't go telling people that "I said". 😜 LOL! In closing, always heed the warnings from the experts. I'll do my part to make sure you have the VERY latest information regarding Dorian, from all of the official and unofficial sources. Thanks for following!
  24. 4 points
    Good Thursday morning to you! Man, wasn't yesterday great! Today will be pretty much the same except with more clouds, but later tonight and into the morning hours we will see showers and thunderstorms, with some of those thunderstorms being severe. Here's the 4:46 am update from the Atlanta NWS office: http://wx.northgeorgiawx.com/ffc_afd_rec.html/ The Storm Prediction Center says this in their Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spc_day2_outlook.php On one hand, we are very fortunate to have this come through during the late night/early morning hours, as the weaker instability due to lack of atmospheric heating will reduce the potential for higher storm intensities. On the other hand... any storms that can maintain sufficient strength will be capable of damaging winds or even a tornado, and tornadoes at night are a bad combination, especially in areas where trees and hills can hide their existence. Make sure you have your phone or other methods of receiving alerts near your bed tonight. Hope you took advantage of these couple of warm days... 'cause Friday and Saturday are going to be much cooler. Highs Friday Highs Saturday Those Saturday highs are WELL below normal for this time of the year, while the low anomalies aren't quite as bad. Saturday High Temp Anomalies Saturday and Sunday Low Temp Anomalies Temperatures rebound quickly on Sunday back into the mid 70's and we should have sunny skies and highs near 80 through Wednesday. I've created a new page I call "Today's Severe Weather Climatology". All the images come from the Storm Prediction Center and are display the historical probabilities for various severe weather modes like wind, hail, tornadoes, any severe, etc. on a given date. It's a quick way to see all of the images at once for any given date. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spc_today_climo.php I'll be following the severe weather potential today and if it looks to be a little stronger than anticipated, I'll create a new post for it, otherwise I'll post the updates here.
  25. 4 points
    This is not February but I just realized I had saved a time lapse video of Snow Jam 2.
  26. 4 points
    I haven't given up yet. 🙂 I still have faith. 🙂 You have a great day as well! I have to go to a birthday party tonight for my step-daughter who will be 25. It's a Medieval themed party and I'm going as a king. I'll have to post pictures. 🤴
  27. 4 points
  28. 4 points
    Glenn Burns did a nice, responsible FB post. He let people know that the models were showing extreme cold and that it is better to be ready for it, in case it plays out. He gave some tips for having alternate power sources, etc. He also reminded people that if their furnace goes out, people can't assume there will be hotel rooms available, due to the Super Bowl. All in all, it was just kind of a friendly heads up.
  29. 3 points
  30. 3 points
    We just came across monteagle an it was snowing a lil bit
  31. 3 points
    Ah. the GFS giveth, and the GFS taketh away. 😂😂😂😂
  32. 3 points
    Good Monday morning! Back to work for most people today! This is my job. 🙂 Gotta love it. Well... if it hasn't already started falling, it will shortly. The rain has returned once more. Here's the WPC rainfall through 7 PM Friday Here's the NWS Atlanta tornado survey from the Paulding County tornado Saturday. This is an image of the path, and in the lower left corner on the edge of the blue line, is @LHarkins913 house... that yellow dot. Glad to know they had a plan and went to the basement when the winds got loud. Another important note... I do not believe there was a tornado warning, but I may be wrong. Quick spin up tornadoes can form without warning and then end just as quickly. Sometimes they'll form in between radar scans which makes them difficult to identify, and that was one reason they said to assume every severe thunderstorm could contain a tornado last Saturday . We're still on target for winter to arrive around the 20th, no changes, just more confirmations. 🙂 Here are the obligatory ensemble maps through the 28th or so. GFS mean and ensembles first, Euro mean and ensembles next. We have a new fresh menu every day for your selection. Take your time. May I get you something to drink while you are perusing the menu? 🙂 NOT A FORECAST Take the umbrella and waders with you today, they may come in handy! 🙂 Have a great day!
  33. 3 points
    It is on all the models, including the GFS. The flip is the 20th, ignore everything before then. Temp anomalies go below normal then and generally do not come back up through the end of the run. Cold air masses will moderate over time and then be reloaded. And a pattern flip to cold does not guarantee snow. After the 20th the GFS suppresses every wave far to the south, basically zero precip north of I20 for the entire period. This is happening because of the cold press from the north. I'd be surprised to see that many waves in a row beaten down into the Gulf.
  34. 3 points
  35. 3 points
  36. 3 points
    For now that's probably best treated as an outlier. It's like 12-18 hours faster than the previous run. Run to run differences that large shows the models just don't have a handle yet. I'd rather skip the ice anyway, so if that happens, I hope it trends colder.
  37. 3 points
    Yeah, I think we are in for a lot interesting future runs and probably some close calls in the near future.
  38. 3 points
    You've GOT to watch this. It's in the outer edge of the eyewall.
  39. 3 points
    I personally would not. It's just a weather system that could produce some strong/severe storms. But given that it's spring in the south, that's true for pretty much every weather system. True outbreaks are far more rare and require perfect ingredients, including timing.
  40. 3 points
    Good Saturday afternoon!!! Sitting down here in Orlando right now, we'll be here 4 more days and then headed over to Sarasota to visit the parents. The rain returns tomorrow along with cooler temperatures, and the rest of the week looks to be a little unsettled. Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday look to be a little chilly but after that, temps rebound quickly back into the 70's. NWS Atlanta has this to say: Enjoy the rest of the evening, much cooler tomorrow!
  41. 3 points
    Sunrise over the Smokies
  42. 3 points
    That’s totally what this winter has felt like 😂🤣😂 my kindergartener says that if the groundhog sees his shadow this weekend that we get two whole weeks of snow... I haven’t the heart to correct her bc I’d be totally okay with that!😂
  43. 3 points
    We (certified staff being teachers) haven't got anything directly......LSTC been sending out notes about DLD and getting eclass ready all day though.
  44. 3 points
    Definitely liked the look on the NAM. The temp crash is going to be fun to watch.
  45. 3 points
    12z GFS is bringing a much stronger high next week with a sharp gradient from the Rockies eastward, and that means colder temps. This would be next Thursday 7 am.
  46. 3 points
    Two of our craziest days for snow and getting kids out of school were kind of spur of the moment events. I remember one, when the tv weather folks were still on the fence -- a Mom from Iowa came in the school and checked her kids out early. She said "trust me. I know snow and that sky is full of snow." She was right! That was a night when it got so bad so fast, the school buses had to turn around and take the kids back to school, where they had to spend the night!
  47. 3 points
  48. 3 points
    Similar only in track. That’s the track we always need for good snows. The dynamics would not be similar. 93 was basically a category 2 hurricane. Almost an impossible storm to repeat.
  49. 3 points
    Some good thoughts this morning from the Atlanta NWS office
  50. 3 points
    But again, these are concerns that have nothing to do with our snow chances over the coming weeks. So for now let’s just keep our eyes on the prize, as we should get at least a few chances at it.
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