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NorthGeorgiaWX last won the day on December 15

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  1. A little band of snow across the central US right now.
  2. Not only the NAO but the models are showing a -AO as well. The EPO is still not cooperating and stays largely positive which can negate much of the impacts we'd see from a negative AO/NAO. And depending on which model you trust, the MJO may or may not be going into a favorable phase shortly. The Euro takes it into Phase 6 which is warm, while a few others go into Phase 7-8 which is cool. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php The Euro Weeklies are picking something out around the 14th to 18th of January that causes the AO/NAO/EPO to sharply go negative.
  3. Oh yes it would be! β„οΈπŸŽ…
  4. Good morning! Another nice cool late fall morning today and some people may have some fog early. The cold air combined with all of the soil moisture is creating some dense fog in some areas this morning, so if you need to get out, drive carefully. Here's a look at the last three days of rainfall. In case you haven't had enough rain, there is more on the way. SPC Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook WPC 7 Day Rainfall Temperatures drop behind the front Late next week, the models have been showing a low developing near the Gulf... and the solutions vary widely right now, but it is something we need to watch. Here's a little blurb from Larry Cosgrove about it. It's getting to be that time of the year when our snow chances start going up, and I'm very encouraged by what I see. I hope everyone has a great Sunday!
  5. Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 124 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019 Valid 12Z Wed Dec 18 2019 - 12Z Sun Dec 22 2019 Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment: Stormy period for the Pacific Northwest into Northern California with successive systems moving inland. The East will be quieter for the end of the week but a weak system in the central Plains may become more developed off the Southeast coast next weekend. The models and ensembles have waffled in their agreement with the incoming western system on Wednesday and how it travels across the CONUS. Though the east-west timing (speed) has come into better agreement, the north-south track lags behind. Clue from ensembles has shown a trend toward enough separation from northern/southern stream flow that the farther south track seems to still be preferred. This included the 12Z ECMWF/UKMET (though they were rather deep) and the 18Z GFS as the Canadian tracked to the north. This would allow some cyclogenesis over the northeast Gulf and/or off the Southeast/FL coast in the Atlantic around next Sat. Thereafter, ensembles show a wide expanse of solutions, so preferred to take the system eastward but with low confidence. Back to the West, next trough will likely take a front into California after several days of focused rainfall (higher elevation snowfall) via a modest atmospheric river event. Weather Highlights/Threats: Precipitation will be centered on the West, particularly coastal OR and northern California. Upper trough in the eastern Pacific will allow a fetch of moisture from near Hawai'i to reach the OR/CA coast with a north/south oscillation between fronts as the trough changes shape upstream. Several inches of precipitation are expected but over a 2-3 day period with a likely break in between. Daytime temperatures will likely be below average with the rainfall but otherwise near average elsewhere and near to above average for overnight lows. East of the Rockies, temperatures may be more variable with a quick cold shot skirting through the Northeast on Thursday (10s/20s for highs and -0s/0s/10s for lows). Fracasso Links WPC Excessive Rain Discussion WPC Short Range Discussion WPC Extended Range Discussion WPC Model Diagnostic Discussion WPC 500 MB Preferred Heights WPC 500 MB Height Trends WPC 7 Day Max Temp - Anomaly WPC 7 Day Min Temp - Anomaly WPC Significant Lows with Tracks WPC SLP Trends
  6. πŸ™‚ A pre Christmas snow would be nice!
  7. I guess everyone remembers this... Christmas, 2010 http://www.daculaweather.com/4_georgia_white_christmas.php
  8. Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 159 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 Valid 12Z Tue Dec 17 2019 - 12Z Sat Dec 21 2019 Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment: Amplified but progressive pattern will maintain a rather stormy period for the West Coast. In the east, a lead system will bring some snow to the Northeast followed by a quieter period until perhaps next weekend. The models/ensembles diverge in timing/track right from Tue/D3 in the east and on Wed/D4 in the west, which carry through the period. For the lead system, the 12Z ECMWF (though slower) and UKMET/Canadian formed a more consistent cluster than the quicker 12Z/18Z GFS (though the 00Z GFS was closer to the ECMWF/UKMET-led consensus). Off the West Coast, most 12Z models/ensembles trended much quicker to bring in a weak closed low to California which left the once seemingly too quick older GFS runs even slower than the current models. 18Z GFS/GEFS could be considered too slow vs the 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian but have been pretty consistent. Nevertheless, with decreased ensemble spread vs previous runs, trended quicker with that system Wed. Thereafter, the 12Z ECMWF became much quicker with a northern track into the Great Lakes while the GFS/Canadian were farther south. Ensembles were split as well with no clear consensus. 12Z Canadian formed a middle ground solution but confidence was low in whether it may manifest itself more robustly in the northern or southern stream. Ensembles do suggest low pressure trying to organize off the Southeast coast late next Sat. Back to the west, yet another trough will slowly lurch toward the coast. Weather Highlights/Threats: Lead system on Tuesday will bring a swath of snow to the Northeast and parts of the Mid-Atlantic as low pressure exits off the coast. Colder air (highs 5-10 deg below average) will filter into the area midweek before a moderation next Fri/Sat. In the West, precipitation will favor far northern California northward for most of the period, but with some light rain/snow into coastal NorCal and the Sierra as the upper trough moves through. By next Fri/Sat, southwesterly upper flow will provide an atmospheric river connection back to the subtropics near Hawai'i for far northern CA into southwestern OR. Several inches of rain are possible per the latest model guidance. Fracasso Links WPC Excessive Rain Discussion WPC Short Range Discussion WPC Extended Range Discussion WPC Model Diagnostic Discussion WPC 500 MB Preferred Heights WPC 500 MB Height Trends WPC 7 Day Max Temp - Anomaly WPC 7 Day Min Temp - Anomaly WPC Significant Lows with Tracks WPC SLP Trends
  9. Good Saturday morning and welcome to the weekend! Not a bad weekend in store now that the rain has pushed out. Did you get much in your backyard? Many areas had anywhere from 1-4" with the heavier amounts a little further south. Here's the radar estimated rainfall totals. While the rain may be over for now, there is more on the way. Here's a look at the severe outlook. And here's a look at the additional rainfall we'll have through 7 pm Tuesday. I wanted to show you this. We are now in one of the quietest solar years in a century. Low solar winters are cold and stormy. Think 2009-2010. Speaking of that period... on this date in 2010 I set two records here at the house. I set a record low high temperature of 32.0ΒΊ F and a record low low temperature of 13.1ΒΊ F, and both of those records still stand. Again, not a bad weekend with relatively tranquil weather. Time to get out and get that Christmas shopping done! We're in the "12 Days of Christmas" countdown! πŸ™‚ Have a great Saturday!
  10. It is happening right now. That's one reason for the frequent bouts of rain that we're having.
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