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  1. Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 31 at 7:54PM EDT until July 31 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS View the full article
  2. Special Weather Statement issued August 17 at 3:46PM EDT by NWS View the full article
  3. MD 1770 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST CO...SOUTHWEST NE AND NORTHWEST KS Mesoscale Discussion 1770 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Areas affected...northeast CO...southwest NE and northwest KS Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 171934Z - 172130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of strong, damaging gusts and hail will increase in the coverage through the afternoon and shift east/southeast through this evening. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms were developing this afternoon near the higher terrain of north-central CO as a subtle shortwave impulse ejects across the area. Surface dewpoints increase from meager 30s F near the I-25 corridor to the mid 60s just east of the CO/NE/KS tri-state area. Meanwhile, a plume of very steep midlevel lapse rates reside across the region, resulting in MLCAPE values increasing from around 500-1000 J/KG near the Palmer Divide to 2000 J/kg across parts of western into central KS/NE. With continued destabilization, high-based convection is expected to increase in coverage. On the southern fringes of strong deep-layer flow, bulk shear values around 25-35 kt should help to sustain organized cells. While steep lapse rates will support hail production, damaging wind is also possible. Strong downdrafts/downward transport will be supported by a deeply-mixed sub-cloud layer and light low level winds. As such, a swath of damaging wind is possible across parts of southwest NE/northeast CO/northwest KS this afternoon and evening. A severe thunderstorm watch likely will be needed in the next couple of hours. ..Leitman/Grams.. 08/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41810257 41590190 41290117 40560005 39859982 39270012 38800069 38750159 38840297 38950425 39200460 39870475 41060437 41620408 41830353 41810257 Read more View the full article
  4. Special Weather Statement issued August 17 at 3:31PM EDT by NWS View the full article
  5. Special Weather Statement issued August 17 at 3:06PM EDT by NWS View the full article
  6. Air Quality Alert issued August 17 at 2:54PM EDT by NWS View the full article
  7. Special Weather Statement issued August 17 at 2:49PM EDT by NWS View the full article
  8. MD 1769 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF SD INTO SOUTHEAST ND Mesoscale Discussion 1769 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Areas affected...much of SD into southeast ND Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 171731Z - 171930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to increase across South Dakota into southeast North Dakota through the afternoon. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible with these storms. DISCUSSION...An isolated supercell has developed early this afternoon near SPF in the Black Hills in moist, upslope flow regime and 1.5 inch hail was recently reported. Surface temperatures across far western SD to the south of a cold front have only warmed into the low 70s, resulting in weak instability. However, further east into central SD, temperatures are rapidly warming into the 80s with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. With additional heating, instability should continue to increase with MLCAPE values approaching 2000 J/kg in the next few hours. EML should also rapidly erode as forcing for ascent continues to increase, both along the southeastward-advancing cold front and as midlevel shortwave impulse brushes the area. As a result, a gradual increase in thunderstorms development along/ahead of the front is expected over the next few hours across western into central SD and southeast ND. Effective shear around 40+ kt and steep midlevel lapse rates will support rotating updrafts and supercell structures capable of producing large hail initially. However, convection may quickly become more linear or clustered, which could limit a larger/greater hail threat. Steep low level lapse rates and a well-mixed sub-cloud layer will support strong downdrafts and damaging winds are possible. With time, convection may congeal into one or more surging lines either along the cold front or through storms mergers/outflow interactions, further increasing severe/damaging wind potential. Given the expected increase in storm coverage/intensity over the next 1-3 hours, a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in the next hour or two. ..Leitman/Grams.. 08/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 45880070 46679871 46969809 46929757 46769712 46189707 45319749 44419819 43869891 43479981 43240228 43390378 43650407 44120420 44410409 44760367 45880070 Read more View the full article
  9. MD 1768 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST Mesoscale Discussion 1768 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Areas affected...Portions of the Northeast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 171727Z - 171930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue increasing in coverage and intensity into early evening. The strongest storms will be capable of scattered wind damage and isolated large hail. A WW is possible. DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery and lightning data shows thunderstorms gradually increasing in intensity/coverage over portions of northeast Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, and northern New York in association with a shortwave impulse over southern Ontario. The kinematic environment across the area is characterized by at least modest deep-layer shear, with effective bulk shear of 30-40 knots -- greatest across northern portions of MCD area. While cloud cover and relatively warm mid-level temperatures will impede strong destabilization over the area, at least filtered sunshine should allow MLCAPE values to rise to near 1000-1500 J/kg by this afternoon -- especially over portions of central Pennsylvania/New York where visible satellite imagery shows greater cloud breaks. The combination of these ingredients should allow for at least periodic storm intensification with scattered wind damage and isolated large hail in the strongest storms/updrafts. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is possible over parts of this area in the next few hours. ..Elliott/Grams.. 08/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ... CLE... LAT...LON 43147732 43407651 44017533 44167417 43827337 42327392 40907470 39997523 39927597 40067645 40527676 41287689 41477790 41447881 41447973 41488051 41568088 42237989 43147732 Read more View the full article
  10. Flood Advisory issued August 17 at 11:21AM EDT by NWS View the full article
  11. Flood Advisory issued August 17 at 9:57AM EDT by NWS View the full article
  12. MD 1767 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA Mesoscale Discussion 1767 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Areas affected...central and northern Illinois and western Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 171300Z - 171500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to move out of Missouri and into central Illinois this morning. Additional thunderstorms will be possible across northern Illinois as well. Hail and gusty winds may be possible with the strongest cores. The area will be monitored for potential watch, but current indications are that the threat should remain sufficiently isolated to not warrant one. DISCUSSION...Long-lived cluster of thunderstorms continues to move east from northern Missouri into central Iowa. Most-unstable CAPE along and ahead of this cluster is around 1000-1500 J/kg; however, deep-layer shear is generally less than 25 knots. Thus, although a severe hail or strong thunderstorm wind gust will be possible with the strongest cores, the threat should remain sufficiently isolated/episodic that a watch is not currently anticipated for this activity. To the north, across northern Illinois, additional thunderstorms may develop within a belt of stronger midlevel flow, likely in response to ageostrophic forcing from the mesoscale convective system to the southwest. The result will be thunderstorms developing in an objectively analyzed environment of most-unstable CAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg and deep-layer shear of 40-50 knots. Although this would normally suggest a threat for organized severe thunderstorms, considerable uncertainty remains regarding convective coverage and longevity. As such, area will continue to be monitored for potential watch, but expectations are that the threat will remain too isolated in nature to warrant watch issuance. ..Marsh/Edwards.. 08/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... LAT...LON 39948994 41609062 42338945 41488669 39198715 38529025 39948994 Read more View the full article
  13. Saturday, August 17 2019 Preference: Blend of the 00Z GFS/ECMWF, and GEFS/ECENS means Confidence: Average The large scale flow across the CONUS will remain broadly cyclonic through the weekend, although gradual height rises are expected by later Sunday and early next week across the central and southern U.S. Shortwaves rotating through the flow will be the primary sensible weather makers, and it is discrepancy among these features that lead to the preferred blend. The most notable differences involve the 00Z NAM which continues to be a relatively strong outlier with several of these vort lobes impacting the Plains/Midwest that are shedding around a complex of upper lows in Canada. In fact, the NAM gradually becomes out of tolerance with the global model consensus across much of central/southern Canada by the end of the period. The 00Z UKMET also is problematic with energy it has lifting up across the upper Midwest through early Sunday as it is sharper and stronger with a surface wave lifting up along a cold front crossing this region. The UKMET also is out of tolerance across Canada versus the model consensus, which is strongly supported at this point by the 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF overall. Across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coastal plain, a persistent and quasi-stationary frontal zone is expected to be the focus for multiple waves of low pressure. One wave of low pressure will eject northeast off the Mid-Atlantic coast and out to sea on Saturday. Meanwhile, a second wave of low pressure situated already down across northern FL will lift northeast very close to the Southeast and southern-Mid-Atlantic coastline through Sunday before then exiting offshore and out to sea on Monday. The 00Z NAM, 00Z CMC and especially the 00Z UKMET intensify this low center as it lifts northeast up the coast, with the 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF showing more modest development. A large number of Canadian ensemble members and a fair number of the GEFS members favor at least a modest low center, with the vast majority of the ECENS members more ill-defined. The 00Z NAM-conest, 00Z ARW/ARW2 solutions show a bit more development comparable to the NAM, but the 00Z NMMB is a weak outlier. There is strong support toward a GFS/ECMWF blend out of the latest GEFS/ECENS means across the CONUS, and thus a blend of all of these will be preferred at this point. However, a slightly stronger version of the GFS/ECMWF solutions is suggested along the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts with the low center lifting northeast across these areas on Sunday.
  14. Today in Weather History for August 17 August 17, 1915 A hurricane hit Galveston, TX, with wind gusts to 120 mph and a twelve foot storm surge. The storm claimed 275 lives, including forty-two on Galveston Island, with most deaths due to drowning. Of 250 homes built outside the seawall (which was constructed after the catastrophic hurricane of 1900), just ten percent were left standing. (The Weather Channel) August 17, 1969 Camille, the second worst hurricane in U.S. history, smashed into the Mississippi coast. Winds gusted to 172 mph at Main Pass Block LA, and to 190 mph near Bay Saint Louis MS. The hurricane claimed 256 lives, and caused 1.3 billion dollars damage. Several ocean going ships were carried over seven miles inland by the hurricane. The hurricane produced winds to 200 mph, and a storm surge of 24.6 feet. Complete destruction occurred in some coastal areas near the eye of the hurricane. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) August 17, 1987 Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Northern and Central Plains Region. One thunderstorm spawned a tornado near Fairbury NE, along with baseball size hail and wind gusts to 100 mph, causing severe crop damage west of town. Ten cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Syracuse NY hit 97 degrees for the first time in twenty-two years. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) August 17, 1988 Fifty-five cities, from the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Middle Atlantic Coast Region, reported record high temperatures for the date. Beckley WV reported an all-time record high of 96 degrees, and Baltimore MD hit 104 degrees, marking their thirteenth day of the year with 100 degree heat. Chicago IL equalled a record with 46 days of 90 degree weather for the year. Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Wisconsin to New Jersey. Thunderstorms in New Jersey produced high winds which gusted to 92 mph at Wrightstown, and blew down a circus tent at Lavallette injuring fourteen persons. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) August 17, 1989 Morning thunderstorms produced three to six inch rains in Oklahoma, and the Arkalatex area of Arkansas, Texas and Louisiana. Tom OK was soaked with 5.98 inches of rain, and Foreman AR received 5.55 inches. Evening thunderstorms produced high winds in the Wasatch Front of northern Utah. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 66 mph at Salt Lake City, and flash flooding caused up to two million dollars damage to a marina on Lake Powell. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) Data courtesy of WeatherForYou View the full article
  15. MD 1766 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 589... FOR EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI Mesoscale Discussion 1766 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Areas affected...eastern Kansas and Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 589... Valid 170940Z - 171145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 589 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorm intensity continues to decrease across most of the area, and this trend should continue. The lone exception is a storm moving southeast toward southwest Missouri. Gusty winds and hail will be the main threat with this storm. A new watch is currently not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Widespread thunderstorm activity and effects from what appears to be a large heat burst across south-central Kansas appear to have stabilized much of the airmass across Kansas. The effect of this is an general decrease of thunderstorm intensity. Farther east, across far eastern Kansas and western Missouri, a more favorable thermodynamic environment for thunderstorms remains in place, where most-unstable CAPE values around 2000 J/kg exist. However, the kinematic environment is more hostile to thunderstorm organization with deep-layer shear generally less than 25 knots. The most intense thunderstorm across the central United States is moving across west-cental Missouri, within the aforementioned environment. Given the current thunderstorm organization and favorable thermodynamic environment ahead of the storm, continued gusty winds and hail will be possible with this storm in the short term. However, with time, thunderstorm organization will lessen and therefore the thunderstorm should weaken. In fact, recent radar imagery suggests this may already be underway with indications of a turn to the east occurring. To the northeast, across northeast Missouri, a couple of thunderstorms have briefly intensified within the last hour. The thermodynamic environment here is weaker than farther southwest, but the deep-layer shear is better. Current suggestion is that although a brief severe hail or wind threat may develop with any sustained/intense updraft, the overall threat should remain limited and a new watch will not be needed. ..Marsh.. 08/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38209787 38949791 38979735 40359734 40359688 40529686 40519644 40279647 40249506 40159506 40139462 40049460 40029422 40129418 40119377 40269374 40239332 40069337 40009228 39259233 38689264 38689307 38519307 38529354 38239352 38199406 38049405 38069593 38199596 38159635 38089637 38119718 38179718 38209787 Read more View the full article
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