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NorthGeorgiaWX last won the day on October 22

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  1. Good morning! I'll be brief this morning, we are heading down to Sarasota today as my father has taken a turn for the worse and he is refusing any more treatment... he's done. I just need to be there with him. It will be sunny and relatively dry today and Thursday, but rain chances return on Friday. The models are coming into better agreement regarding the evolution of the closed low over the central part of the country, but the exact location of the rain field is still in question. The WPC keeps the majority of the precip to our west and closer to the upper level low. Of course. That doesn't mean we won't see any rain, but just not as heavy or as beneficial as the folks to our west will see if this track holds true. The signs are pointing toward much cooler temperatures for the final days of the month. This is what Blairsville would look like The CFSv2 has been bullish on the cold and has done a better long range job than the Euro Weeklies. Days 5-10 Days 15-20 November Only time will tell, so we'll wait and see. I may have more this evening, we'll see how it goes. We probably won't get down to Sarasota until 6 pm or so, it's going to be a long day. I hope everyone has a great Wednesday! Get out and enjoy the day! O hushed October morning mild, Thy leaves have ripened to the fall; Tomorrowโ€™s wind, if it be wild, Should waste them all. โ€“Robert Frost (1874โ€“1963)
  2. 12Z Euro on the left, 00Z Euro on the right. Weaker the SE Ridge, further east the storm.
  3. Here's a statistical look at what we might see for winter based on the low solar and ENSO data. https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-19-20-statistical-outlook-solar-cycle-enso-fa/
  4. Cranky's thoughts to close the month and into November
  5. I don't think Mother Nature hints. ๐Ÿ˜‰ I'm 5.6 degrees above my October normal, but it's only because of the the first 4 days in the mid to upper 90's. Take those out and I'm 3.2 above. So still not where we need to be, but that first 4-5 days really skews things. Here are my past October mean temperatures at the house, we'll see how the last 8 days plays out. 2019 at the top.
  6. Good morning! ๐Ÿ™‚ Things didn't quite work out as I expected yesterday, but my rain is getting ready to push through here in just a little while. A little light and and scattered well, sounds like a Waffle House order. ๐Ÿ˜œ Meh. It lost its "push" yesterday as the parent low took all of the energy with it. This weekend system is still very iffy according to the Weather Prediction Center. In other words, anything could happen. The muddy water will become clearer as time goes on, but don't bet your weekend on anything just yet. The WPC is leaning toward a solution but since the confidence is low, you just can't be sure yet. This doesn't necessarily mean a lot of rain for us, although the Euro brings a similar system later next week that says 4-5" will fall. Here are the differences between the Euro and GFS solutions. The first two images are this Saturday night at 8 PM. Keep in mind, these are the operational runs and not what you would want to use for next week, that's what ensembles are for. This first image is the Euro. You can see the cutoff upper air low over OK and the big ridge over us. The middle of the country and folks to our west would get the rain. This is the GFS solution. Instead of a closed low, it's a strung out trough. The rain wouldn't be as heavy but at least we'd see some. If we just look at the ensembles, we might get closer to the truth. The GEFS is a little faster and weaker with the trough While the Euro has a stronger ridge in the east and a deeper low over OK. You can see how this dilemma changes things from the NWS Atlanta point of view So we need to wait for a few days to see what in the heck is going on before there can be any confidence in a forecast. Someone will get it figured out. ๐Ÿ˜‰ In the meantime, you can get your "official" NWS forecast here on my opening page at DaculaWeather.com. Just choose a location that is closest to where you live from the drop-down box. You only need to get close, the forecast is in a big grid so ballpark is all you need. This is my forecast. Once the forecast loads, if you save the link as a favorite, each time you go back, it will be your forecast and you won't have to set it again. See how I try to make it easy for you? ๐Ÿบ Oh... we are going to have some nice fall temps for a few days, so enjoy those! ๐Ÿ™‚ Have a great Tuesday! Winter begins in 61 days!
  7. Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 313 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019 Valid 12Z Fri Oct 25 2019 - 12Z Tue Oct 29 2019 Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment and Weather Highlights/Threats: Models and ensembles continue to show quite varied medium range solutions that mainly stem from the extent of short range shortwave digging down through the w-central U.S. and subsequent southern stream flow separation. Forecast confidence is not stellar. Recent ECMWF and to a slightly lesser extent ECMWF ensemble mean and Canadian/Canadian ensembles and to some extent the UKMET continue to show max digging within the full envelope of solutions. This leads to the most separated southern stream and most westward/amplified closed low development and slowest/wettest subsequent northeastward system track over the central then eastern U.S. at medium range time scales as a new upstream upper trough amplifies sharply back over the West and upper ridging builds over the Southeast. Recent GFS and to a lesser extent GEFS runs instead show the least short range digging over the West that subsequently offers much less downstream southern stream separation, no closed low development, and way more progressive and eastward flow over the central to eastern U.S. that offers a significantly less heavy rainfall threat. Still suspect that the sharp upper ridge amplitude building into the West coast over the next couple of days and sufficient wavelength spacing from subsequent upstream upper trough approach from the Pacific should favor a solution well on the more amplified and southern stream/closed low separated side of the aforementioned full envelope of guidance solutions. Given the GFS/GEFS have not trended significantly in that direction with the latest 00 UTC runs, opted to not jump all the way to the ECMWF at this point given lingering uncertainty. However, suggest preference of the still stormy ECMWF ensemble mean and the Canadian/Canadian ensemble mean that were primarily used as a starting point for the WPC medium range product suite. This solution offers a threat of widespread heavy rainfall/convection centered over the South Fri into the weekend from the main lead system and substantial cooling upstream over the West/Rockies to include a threat of heavy mountain snows to occur by early next week upper trough amplification. Schichtel Links WPC Excessive Rain Discussion WPC Short Range Discussion WPC Extended Range Discussion WPC Model Diagnostic Discussion WPC 500 MB Preferred Heights WPC 500 MB Height Trends WPC 7 Day Max Temp - Anomaly WPC 7 Day Min Temp - Anomaly WPC Significant Lows with Tracks WPC SLP Trends
  8. These are the winds at the 300 mb level, and over that rainfall to our west, that height is about 31,400 feet. Nice jet ripping around the right front exit region of the trough. The leading edge is about 84 mph and 104 on the backside. But the winds back over Arkansas are roaring at 160 mph.
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