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  1. Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 31 at 7:54PM EDT until July 31 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS View the full article
  2. Flood Advisory issued August 17 at 9:57AM EDT by NWS View the full article
  3. MD 1767 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA Mesoscale Discussion 1767 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Areas affected...central and northern Illinois and western Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 171300Z - 171500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to move out of Missouri and into central Illinois this morning. Additional thunderstorms will be possible across northern Illinois as well. Hail and gusty winds may be possible with the strongest cores. The area will be monitored for potential watch, but current indications are that the threat should remain sufficiently isolated to not warrant one. DISCUSSION...Long-lived cluster of thunderstorms continues to move east from northern Missouri into central Iowa. Most-unstable CAPE along and ahead of this cluster is around 1000-1500 J/kg; however, deep-layer shear is generally less than 25 knots. Thus, although a severe hail or strong thunderstorm wind gust will be possible with the strongest cores, the threat should remain sufficiently isolated/episodic that a watch is not currently anticipated for this activity. To the north, across northern Illinois, additional thunderstorms may develop within a belt of stronger midlevel flow, likely in response to ageostrophic forcing from the mesoscale convective system to the southwest. The result will be thunderstorms developing in an objectively analyzed environment of most-unstable CAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg and deep-layer shear of 40-50 knots. Although this would normally suggest a threat for organized severe thunderstorms, considerable uncertainty remains regarding convective coverage and longevity. As such, area will continue to be monitored for potential watch, but expectations are that the threat will remain too isolated in nature to warrant watch issuance. ..Marsh/Edwards.. 08/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... LAT...LON 39948994 41609062 42338945 41488669 39198715 38529025 39948994 Read more View the full article
  4. Saturday, August 17 2019 Preference: Blend of the 00Z GFS/ECMWF, and GEFS/ECENS means Confidence: Average The large scale flow across the CONUS will remain broadly cyclonic through the weekend, although gradual height rises are expected by later Sunday and early next week across the central and southern U.S. Shortwaves rotating through the flow will be the primary sensible weather makers, and it is discrepancy among these features that lead to the preferred blend. The most notable differences involve the 00Z NAM which continues to be a relatively strong outlier with several of these vort lobes impacting the Plains/Midwest that are shedding around a complex of upper lows in Canada. In fact, the NAM gradually becomes out of tolerance with the global model consensus across much of central/southern Canada by the end of the period. The 00Z UKMET also is problematic with energy it has lifting up across the upper Midwest through early Sunday as it is sharper and stronger with a surface wave lifting up along a cold front crossing this region. The UKMET also is out of tolerance across Canada versus the model consensus, which is strongly supported at this point by the 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF overall. Across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coastal plain, a persistent and quasi-stationary frontal zone is expected to be the focus for multiple waves of low pressure. One wave of low pressure will eject northeast off the Mid-Atlantic coast and out to sea on Saturday. Meanwhile, a second wave of low pressure situated already down across northern FL will lift northeast very close to the Southeast and southern-Mid-Atlantic coastline through Sunday before then exiting offshore and out to sea on Monday. The 00Z NAM, 00Z CMC and especially the 00Z UKMET intensify this low center as it lifts northeast up the coast, with the 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF showing more modest development. A large number of Canadian ensemble members and a fair number of the GEFS members favor at least a modest low center, with the vast majority of the ECENS members more ill-defined. The 00Z NAM-conest, 00Z ARW/ARW2 solutions show a bit more development comparable to the NAM, but the 00Z NMMB is a weak outlier. There is strong support toward a GFS/ECMWF blend out of the latest GEFS/ECENS means across the CONUS, and thus a blend of all of these will be preferred at this point. However, a slightly stronger version of the GFS/ECMWF solutions is suggested along the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts with the low center lifting northeast across these areas on Sunday.
  5. Today in Weather History for August 17 August 17, 1915 A hurricane hit Galveston, TX, with wind gusts to 120 mph and a twelve foot storm surge. The storm claimed 275 lives, including forty-two on Galveston Island, with most deaths due to drowning. Of 250 homes built outside the seawall (which was constructed after the catastrophic hurricane of 1900), just ten percent were left standing. (The Weather Channel) August 17, 1969 Camille, the second worst hurricane in U.S. history, smashed into the Mississippi coast. Winds gusted to 172 mph at Main Pass Block LA, and to 190 mph near Bay Saint Louis MS. The hurricane claimed 256 lives, and caused 1.3 billion dollars damage. Several ocean going ships were carried over seven miles inland by the hurricane. The hurricane produced winds to 200 mph, and a storm surge of 24.6 feet. Complete destruction occurred in some coastal areas near the eye of the hurricane. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) August 17, 1987 Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Northern and Central Plains Region. One thunderstorm spawned a tornado near Fairbury NE, along with baseball size hail and wind gusts to 100 mph, causing severe crop damage west of town. Ten cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Syracuse NY hit 97 degrees for the first time in twenty-two years. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) August 17, 1988 Fifty-five cities, from the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Middle Atlantic Coast Region, reported record high temperatures for the date. Beckley WV reported an all-time record high of 96 degrees, and Baltimore MD hit 104 degrees, marking their thirteenth day of the year with 100 degree heat. Chicago IL equalled a record with 46 days of 90 degree weather for the year. Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Wisconsin to New Jersey. Thunderstorms in New Jersey produced high winds which gusted to 92 mph at Wrightstown, and blew down a circus tent at Lavallette injuring fourteen persons. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) August 17, 1989 Morning thunderstorms produced three to six inch rains in Oklahoma, and the Arkalatex area of Arkansas, Texas and Louisiana. Tom OK was soaked with 5.98 inches of rain, and Foreman AR received 5.55 inches. Evening thunderstorms produced high winds in the Wasatch Front of northern Utah. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 66 mph at Salt Lake City, and flash flooding caused up to two million dollars damage to a marina on Lake Powell. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) Data courtesy of WeatherForYou View the full article
  6. MD 1766 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 589... FOR EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI Mesoscale Discussion 1766 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Areas affected...eastern Kansas and Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 589... Valid 170940Z - 171145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 589 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorm intensity continues to decrease across most of the area, and this trend should continue. The lone exception is a storm moving southeast toward southwest Missouri. Gusty winds and hail will be the main threat with this storm. A new watch is currently not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Widespread thunderstorm activity and effects from what appears to be a large heat burst across south-central Kansas appear to have stabilized much of the airmass across Kansas. The effect of this is an general decrease of thunderstorm intensity. Farther east, across far eastern Kansas and western Missouri, a more favorable thermodynamic environment for thunderstorms remains in place, where most-unstable CAPE values around 2000 J/kg exist. However, the kinematic environment is more hostile to thunderstorm organization with deep-layer shear generally less than 25 knots. The most intense thunderstorm across the central United States is moving across west-cental Missouri, within the aforementioned environment. Given the current thunderstorm organization and favorable thermodynamic environment ahead of the storm, continued gusty winds and hail will be possible with this storm in the short term. However, with time, thunderstorm organization will lessen and therefore the thunderstorm should weaken. In fact, recent radar imagery suggests this may already be underway with indications of a turn to the east occurring. To the northeast, across northeast Missouri, a couple of thunderstorms have briefly intensified within the last hour. The thermodynamic environment here is weaker than farther southwest, but the deep-layer shear is better. Current suggestion is that although a brief severe hail or wind threat may develop with any sustained/intense updraft, the overall threat should remain limited and a new watch will not be needed. ..Marsh.. 08/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38209787 38949791 38979735 40359734 40359688 40529686 40519644 40279647 40249506 40159506 40139462 40049460 40029422 40129418 40119377 40269374 40239332 40069337 40009228 39259233 38689264 38689307 38519307 38529354 38239352 38199406 38049405 38069593 38199596 38159635 38089637 38119718 38179718 38209787 Read more View the full article
  7. Good morning! It's the weekend!!! Hot and sunny, that's the weather for this weekend. We will have low humidities so it won't be too oppressive, but it will be hot. Here's my forecast in Gwinnett. The moisture begins to return late Sunday as a weak trough develops and places us back in the tropical moisture. The clouds and rain will help to moderate the temperatures as the week goes on, so it won't be as unbearable as it was last week. Other than the very heavy rains around the Big Bend of Florida and even off the coast of the Carolina's, watching the weather right now is like watching paint dry. 😉 Here are the temperatures that I've recorded this summer. It certainly hasn't been the hottest summer I've recorded here, that honor goes to 2016. 2019 Summer Temperatures 2016 Summer Temperatures I hope everyone has a safe and enjoyable weekend!
  8. Saturday This radar estimated rainfall in the bluish colors is 5-10".
  9. MD 1765 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 589... FOR KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI Mesoscale Discussion 1765 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Areas affected...kansas and northwest Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 589... Valid 170740Z - 170915Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 589 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue across much of Kansas and are spreading into northwest Missouri. Large hail and a gusty thunderstorm winds are the main threats. DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of thunderstorms persist this morning across much of northern Kansas and into northwest Missouri. The mesoscale airmass across the region remains supportive of severe thunderstorms -- namely large hail and gusty thunderstorm winds -- as evidenced by most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg and deep layer shear between 30-50 knots. One negative to a more widespread severe episode is the number of ongoing/developing storms tapping into this airmass, which should locally reduce the overall instability. The result should be a gradual weakening of overall thunderstorm intensity and a transition to a more episodic severe threat, especially across north-central Kansas where previous thunderstorm duration and ongoing thunderstorm coverage is greatest. Farther east, where the airmass is less contaminated by early convection, a more sustained severe potential will exist initially, before a gradual weakening trend takes hold. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary severe threats. ..Marsh.. 08/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... GLD... LAT...LON 38240156 38680158 38700146 39110151 39120135 39530135 39579959 40029960 39989824 40339828 40369692 40519690 40509647 40289647 40259503 40149502 40119462 40019464 40019426 40139421 40119378 40229375 40249339 40049334 40039232 39269230 39229242 38999258 38939249 38699262 38689304 38509306 38529348 38219356 38209406 38019407 38059599 38159598 38179631 38069634 38099715 38209716 38179849 38269854 38259901 38339904 38349963 38259959 38240156 Read more View the full article
  10. MD 1764 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 588... FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF KANSAS/NEBRASKA Mesoscale Discussion 1764 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0843 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Areas affected...southeastern Wyoming...eastern Colorado and into western and central portions of Kansas/Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 588... Valid 170143Z - 170345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 588 continues. SUMMARY...Severe risk continues over parts of the central high Plains, and should spread eastward this evening into the central Plains. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop over the central high Plains area shows isolated/vigorous storms over portion of eastern Colorado, with some upscale growth now indicated over northeast Colorado -- i.e. the Logan County vicinity -- over the past half hour. Objective analyses continue to indicate a very unstable airmass across Kansas, east of the ongoing storms, while VAD wind profiles indicate a strengthening low-level jet over the Oklahoma/Kansas vicinity. It would appear, given the thermodynamic and kinematic setup, that storms should spread/develop eastward out of WW 588 and into the lower Plains over the next few hours, with the HRRR continuing to forecast this evolution as well. Presuming this evolution, a new WW will likely be needed into larger portions of Kansas -- and possibly Nebraska -- over the next 1-2 hours. Meanwhile, risk for damaging winds and large hail continues within WW 588. ..Goss.. 08/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... CYS... LAT...LON 42020527 42930434 42590178 41059858 39289708 38359729 37770172 37910341 38770422 39710452 40910449 42020527 Read more View the full article
  11. No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Aug 17 01:31:01 UTC 2019. View the full article
  12. MD 1762 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 588... FOR EASTERN COLORADO INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING...THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN KANSAS Mesoscale Discussion 1762 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Areas affected...eastern Colorado into southeast Wyoming...the Nebraska Panhandle...and western Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 588... Valid 162327Z - 170130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 588 continues. SUMMARY...Storms/severe risk continue to gradually increase across the WW area. DISCUSSION...The latest radar loop over the central High Plains vicinity shows a couple of strong/likely severe storms over Lincoln county, in southwestern portions of WW 588, moving southeastward. New/intense cells have developed quickly across northeast Colorado over the past half hour, while still farther north/northwest, a convective increase is noted over the southeast Wyoming vicinity. Severe risk continues across the watch area, where an axis of strong instability -- aided by a southeasterly influx of low-level moisture -- is indicated. Very large hail remains possible, along with locally damaging winds. With time, storms are expected to spread -- or redevelop -- eastward into more of Kansas and Nebraska, as a low-level jet intensifies this evening. We will continue to monitor convective evolution, with a new watch/watches anticipated east of the existing WW, during the evening. ..Goss.. 08/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 38060339 38870406 40680508 42430538 43190436 42960294 41040065 38290072 38060339 Read more View the full article
  13. MD 1763 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS Mesoscale Discussion 1763 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Areas affected...Northwest Oklahoma and far southern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162329Z - 170100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will exist across northwest Oklahoma early this evening, although there is some potential for additional development into far southern Kansas and/or some eastward persistence across northwest Oklahoma. DISCUSSION...High-based thunderstorms have developed across northwest Oklahoma late this afternoon/early evening, particularly near Highway 64 near/west of Buffalo as of 615 PM CDT. This development is occurring near/east of a weak surface low and nearby surface trough/wind shift where the boundary layer is somewhat moist but otherwise hot (100+ F surface temperatures) and deeply mixed. Where this development is occurring, overall moisture and deep-layer/low-level shear are not particularly strong, but localized severe hail and/or severe-caliber downdrafts may occur over the next couple of hours. The most likely scenario is for any isolated severe risk to be relegated to the next couple of hours through around sunset, with storm intensity diminishing as the boundary layer begins to cool. However, somewhat richer low-level moisture and stronger deep-layer shear is available just to the east of this region and storms could persist/develop east-northeastward if storm/cold pool development becomes more extensive than currently anticipated, while a low-level jet begins to increase this evening. ..Guyer.. 08/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 36150017 37259951 37319786 36099812 36150017 Read more View the full article
  14. MD 1763 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS Mesoscale Discussion 1763 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 Areas affected...Northwest Oklahoma and far southern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162329Z - 170100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will exist across northwest Oklahoma early this evening, although there is some potential for additional development into far southern Kansas and/or some eastward persistence across northwest Oklahoma. DISCUSSION...High-based thunderstorms have developed across northwest Oklahoma late this afternoon/early evening, particularly near Highway 64 near/west of Buffalo as of 615 PM CDT. This development is occurring near/east of a weak surface low and nearby surface trough/wind shift where the boundary layer is somewhat moist but otherwise hot (100+ F surface temperatures) and deeply mixed. Where this development is occurring, overall moisture and deep-layer/low-level shear are not particularly strong, but localized severe hail and/or severe-caliber downdrafts may occur over the next couple of hours. The most likely scenario is for any isolated severe risk to be relegated to the next couple of hours through around sunset, with storm intensity diminishing as the boundary layer begins to cool. However, somewhat richer low-level moisture and stronger deep-layer shear is available just to the east of this region and storms could persist/develop east-northeastward if storm/cold pool development becomes more extensive than currently anticipated, while a low-level jet begins to increase this evening. ..Guyer.. 08/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 36150017 37259951 37319786 36099812 36150017 Read more View the full article
  15. Flood Advisory issued August 16 at 7:30PM EDT by NWS View the full article
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