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Everything posted by NorthGeorgiaWX

  1. Wow. Watch the wind gusting toward the end. This is the Newfoundland storm
  2. Yea, I wasn't holding out any hope of it being anything.
  3. Maybe a tiny chance of some freezing rain tomorrow, but I doubt anyone will see it. If it happens at all, it would mainly be along the ridgetops. Nothing to see here...
  4. H ere's the GEFS and EPS 500 mb anomalies. 4
  5. The ensembles don't show a SE ridge. That's not to say we won't see warmups, but we always see warm ups between cold spells. We'll see.
  6. No, winter is not over. Just snow weenies jumping off the cliff. 😜🤣
  7. A few nice sunrise images from the Smokies this morning.
  8. Good Friday morning! Starting off a little cooler this morning compared to the last 4 or 5 or 10. Seems like forever whatever it's been. We will be getting colder, but the bad news for many is that we will be warming back up. Much cooler air to our north in Tennessee and the mountain of NC this morning, with rain over a large area over the central US and freezing rain over Kansas and Missouri. Here's a zoomed in view of the winter mess. Considerably cooler and more seasonal this morning and this is the 24 hour temperature change. While our snow drought continues, others are buried in it. NWS Atlanta We will be getting colder and it will feel more like winter, but it doesn't last forever. The pattern starts off with some amplification, but then goes flat toward the end of next week as can be seen in this 1000=500 mb thickness loop. You can see the incursion of the colder air for Monday-Wednesday, but then the amplification smooths out and we go back into a zonal flow. So we wait some more. Don't you just love winter weather roller coasters? Yea... didn't think so. 😉 Here are the upcoming temperature anomalies from the GFS Two weeks to go in January, hopefully we can scrounge something up before the end of the month, otherwise on to February. I've always liked February snows anyway and we seem to have more of those than we do in January. I need to go back and look to see if that's true. So enjoy the day, the weather should be great! However, you might want to put the shorts away, at least for the next 5 days or so. 🙂 Have a great Friday!
  9. Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1142 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2020 Valid 12Z Fri Jan 17 2020 - 12Z Sun Jan 19 2020 A sprawling winter storm will create hazardous travel conditions from the Plains/Midwest to the Northeast into the weekend Heavy rain possible for portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley Friday into Friday night Additional heavy snow and gusty winds expected for the Cascades late Friday into Saturday A vigorous upper-level trough is forecast to bring snows to much of the Rockies on Friday before moving into the central U.S. late in the day, with a low pressure system expected to take shape across the central Plains. The surface low is forecast to deepen as it moves northeastward into the Midwest/Great Lakes by Saturday. Snow, sleet, and freezing rain are forecast to develop on Friday ahead of the system across much of the Plains and Upper Midwest, and portions of the Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley. As warmer air advects northward late Friday into Friday night, areas across the Mid-Mississippi Valley that saw a wintry mix earlier in the day are expected to change to rain, with areas of heavy rainfall possible. Wintry precipitation should spread east across the Great Lakes and into portions of the Ohio Valley Friday night into Saturday morning, and into the Northeast and portions of the Mid-Atlantic during the day on Saturday. A new area of low pressure is forecast to develop near the New England coast by Saturday night/Sunday morning, which could bring a period of heavier snows to portions of northern New England before the system pulls away. At least a few inches of accumulating snow are expected, with areas of moderate to heavy snow over much of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and the interior Northeast/northern New England. Farther south, the trailing cold front will bring areas of showers and thunderstorms from the southern Plains on Friday to the Southeast and portions of the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys on Saturday. In the wake of this low pressure system, expect cold temperatures to overspread much of the north central U.S. and Ohio Valley, with high temperatures forecast to be 10 to 20 deg F below average Saturday into Sunday. After a brief lull in heavy precipitation across the Pacific Northwest, another frontal system is forecast to approach and bring an increase in lower elevation rains/mountain snows by late Friday continuing into Saturday. Snowfall amounts exceeding 12 inches are possible, especially across the Olympics and portions of the Washington Cascades, along with wind gusts of 40-60 mph. Ryan ------------------------------------------------- Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 148 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 Valid 12Z Mon Jan 20 2020 - 12Z Fri Jan 24 2020 ...Overview... Progressive upper pattern will take the western/eastern ridge/trough couplet eastward next week which will bring back ridging to the East later in the week. A system will push through the Pacific Northwest Tuesday and reorganize over the southern Plains by Thursday and into the Lower Mississippi Valley next Friday. This could increase the threat of some heavier rain to the region in an otherwise quieter pattern between storms. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The flow out of the Pacific continues to be hard to resolve in the shorter wavelengths, most evident in the GFS and its lack of consistency. Even in the other models, none has been much better than average. The ensembles, at least, have shown better continuity but at the expense of detail. The ECMWF ensemble mean has been less prone to changes than the GEFS mean, but both have shown trends in recent runs toward a more amplified yet still progressive pattern. Preferred the ECMWF-led cluster of solutions rather than the GFS, which was close to the GEFS members, stemming from 1) a different handling of the Pacific flow and therefore downstream shortwave timing and 2) a sharper flow out of eastern Canada in the GFS vs others. GFS did come back into general agreement by next Thu/Fri with a system in the southern Plains though on the northern side of the multi-center ensemble spread. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... Troughing east of the Rockies early in the week will favor below normal temperatures especially over the Upper Midwest/Corn Belt (owing to new snowfall in the short term) but also to the Gulf region and through Florida. Above normal temperatures in the West and Rockies Mon/Tue will slide eastward to the Plains on Wednesday then Great Lakes/Midwest Thursday and to the East Coast Friday. Precipitation will be limited in the East to around the Great Lakes and across southern Florida early in the period as the system comes into WA/OR and northern California. Modest lower elevation rain/higher elevation snow Tuesday will be followed by lighter precipitation Wednesday before increasing again next Thu-Fri with another Pacific front. By next Wed-Thu, Gulf moisture should increase rain chances over Texas northward and northeastward as a front approaches the area from the northwest. Some wintry precipitation may be supported on the northern fringe. Should the system tap enough Gulf moisture, some heavy rainfall will be possible along the northwestern Gulf coast into the ArkLaTex. Fracasso Links WPC Excessive Rain Discussion WPC Short Range Discussion WPC Extended Range Discussion WPC Model Diagnostic Discussion WPC 500 MB Preferred Heights WPC 500 MB Height Trends WPC 7 Day Max Temp - Anomaly WPC 7 Day Min Temp - Anomaly WPC Significant Lows with Tracks WPC SLP Trends
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  11. Sounds like you're on the downhill part of the roller coaster. 🙂 I guess I've done this for too long, I don't let the disappointments get to me much anymore. I know that our chances here in Georgia are slim no matter what, so I try not to let myself get too excited when something shows up on the horizon. When watching weather models know that things like temps and precip will generally moderate before the event happens (but not always).
  12. Use to go there too. 🙂 I think I was one of the first 20 or so to sign up.
  13. 24 hour temperature change as of 12:15 PM
  14. Here are the normal temps for January 15, Highs/Lows
  15. Drier air filtering in, these are dewpoints.
  16. I'm not saying don't watch the models, what I'm saying is that if you do, expect to see those wild swings that you are seeing. Those are part of the ups and downs on the winter roller coaster. And understand that most of those apps are showing the GFS operational output because the GFS data is free. As far as the folks on AmWx go... I use to frequent that forum for years, but I got away from it when the moderators took all the fun out of it and haven't been back since. Everyone has their opinion. If anyone is expecting wall to wall cold for 6 weeks, they don't understand winter in the south. We will have warm ups, but I don't see any long lasting warmth and a greater chance for below normal temperatures. Two week teleconnections are not known for good verification scores, but here's the GFS ensemble. Each one of these indices are showing good signs for winter weather potential, but even so, that doesn't guarantee snow. Here you see the EPO mean dropping in the negative range (GOOD). Keep in mind the "control" run is the run that all the individual ensemble members are using when the run initializes. The AO heads negative (GOOD) NAO neutral to negative (GOOD) PNA heading positive (GOOD)
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