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NorthGeorgiaWX

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  1. MD 1985 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS Mesoscale Discussion 1985 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Areas affected...Portions of the southern and central High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191948Z - 192215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong/gusty winds and large hail may occur on an isolated basis with storms this afternoon and early evening. Watch issuance is unlikely at this time. DISCUSSION...Weak low-level convergence along a surface trough combined with modest large-scale ascent associated with a subtle shortwave trough over NM has encouraged recent convective development across parts of the southern and central High Plains. Low-level moisture increases with eastward extent across this region, with mid 50s to mid 60s surface dewpoints present. An EML plume extends across this area from higher terrain to the west, and MLCAPE of 1000-2000+ J/kg has developed along/east of the surface trough from southern NE into eastern CO/western KS, far eastern NM, and the TX/OK Panhandles. The main limiting factor that should keep the overall severe threat fairly isolated remains modest low/mid-level winds. Only about 25-30 kt of effective bulk shear will be present across the warm sector through the remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening. This marginal shear will likely promote occasional storm organization, with some large hail and strong/gusty winds possible as storms spread slowly eastward and potentially grow upscale into one or more small clusters. This isolated severe threat is expected to wane this evening with eastward extent across the southern/central High Plains as convective inhibition increases with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Hart.. 09/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 34330329 36820310 39260251 39400251 40870170 40690051 40020022 38220013 35850026 34080100 33350164 33350261 33590303 34330329 Read more View the full article
  2. Rip Current Statement issued September 19 at 3:21PM EDT until September 20 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS View the full article
  3. Rip Current Statement issued September 19 at 12:57PM EDT until September 19 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS View the full article
  4. Rip Current Statement issued September 19 at 10:31AM EDT until September 19 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS View the full article
  5. MD 1984 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA Mesoscale Discussion 1984 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0911 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Areas affected...extreme southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191411Z - 191615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Threat for isolated tornadoes should persist through the morning and possibly into the early afternoon from extreme southeast TX into southwest LA. The spatial extent of threat is expected to remain small, but trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...As of mid morning a warm front extends from near the southwest LA coast northwestward to a surface low in southeast TX. These features are associated with tropical depression Imelda that is located over east TX and moving very slowly north at around 5 mph. Storms continue developing along a convergence band over southeast TX with more discrete mini supercells developing ahead of the line moving northward onto the southwest LA coast. The greatest potential for a few brief tornadoes will be as these mini supercells move north and interact with the warm front across southwest LA where 0-1 km storm relative helicity ranges from 150-250 m2/s2. The spatial extent of the threat area is expected to remain limited, but some of these storms might eventually affect the city of Lake Charles. ..Dial/Hart.. 09/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH... LAT...LON 30299331 29839283 29569301 29829407 30419388 30299331 Read more View the full article
  6. I-10 is flooded in many locations and most major roads are underwater.
  7. Left out the NWS quote in the post... I was too distracted by the croaking. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. 😛
  8. Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Valid 12Z Sun Sep 22 2019 - 12Z Thu Sep 26 2019 ...Imelda moisture to fuel Mid-MS Valley/Midwest to Northeast Heavy Rains Sun/Mon... ...Overview and Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... Models and ensembles continue to mainly offer a reasonably similar medium range flow evolution in a pattern with above average forecast confidence. The WPC medium range product suite was primarily derived from a composite blend of fairly well clustered guidance from the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian, GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means and the National Blend of Models into early next week. Adjusted the blend to a combination of the better clustered solutions of the ECMWF and GEFS/ECMWF ensembles by next midweek. ...Weather Highlights/Threats... Deep tropical moisture with the remains of Imelda will fuel a threat of locally excessive rainfall. Entrainment into mid-latitude flow ahead of an approaching upper trough and surface frontal system will focus moisture/heavy convective storm potential with cell training/heavy downpours from the Mid-MS Valley to the Great Lakes/Northeast. This occurs as the amplified upper trough ejects northeastward over the Plains this weekend, then eastward over the Midwest/Great Lakes/Northeast early next week. Upstream, upper low/trough energies and precipitation potential will reload back into an unsettling West Coast Sun/Mon. The risk then shifts to the Southwest where moisture from Lorena is drawn into AZ/NM as the low cuts off near CA. The combination of monsoonal/tropical moisture will lead to a heavy rain threat through midweek. Schichtel
  9. Thursday, September 19, 2019 Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 244 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Valid Sep 19/0000 UTC thru Sep 22/1200 UTC 00Z Model Evaluation with Preferences and Forecast Confidence ...Overall Pattern across the CONUS... Preference: General model blend increasingly weighted toward ECMWF Ensemble and GEFS Ensemble means Confidence: Average The synoptic pattern will continue to be dominated by a western U.S. trough and an eastern U.S. ridge. In general, the models are in good agreement over the first couple days of the forecast, with increasing differences by Friday Night and Saturday related to how the trough ejects east into the Plains. The 00Z ECMWF in particular shows this trough lagging the model consensus, but the 00Z GFS has trended toward a slower solution as well and especially by the end of the period. By Sunday, there will be another trough coming into the West, but there is better model agreement with the details of this system. Regarding T.D. Imelda over southeast TX, the guidance has strong agreement in lifting this system northwest over the next 24 to 36 hours, with the system weakening into an open trough by Friday. Moisture and energy associated with this system will advance up toward the Red River Valley of the South this weekend. Based on the latest model clustering, a general model blend will again be preferred with weighting toward the latest GEFS and ECENS means, and this will also account for some of the timing spread seen with the troughing over the Plains Friday and Saturday. Orrison Model Diagnostic DiscussionPreferred Height Pattern500 mb Height TrendsForecast issued by the Weather Prediction Center
  10. My monthly temps here at the house this year. As you can see, July was the warmest month but didn't have the highest temperature.
  11. Good Thursday morning! Have you been outside yet? 🙂 Must be nice, I wouldn't know. 🙂 Instead of enjoying nice cool dry air, I'm listening to the choir. While it's not super strong wedge, it's strong enough to aid in keeping our temperatures (well... YOUR temperatures) very comfortable today. With dew points in the low 60's and upper 50's, the air probably feels much more "crisp" this morning. Areas NE of Houston have been hammered by as much as 30" of rain and it's still coming down. Radar Estimated Rainfall These are the expected temperatures at 7 am tomorrow. Combine those with dew points at least 10 degrees lower than today, and you have a recipe for an awesome fall morning. The morning temps tomorrow will be about 10 degrees or so below normal for this time of the year. So enjoy the fall football weekend! I can't wait to get back to enjoy it myself! 🙂 Have a great Thursday!
  12. Rip Current Statement issued September 19 at 4:29AM EDT until September 21 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS View the full article
  13. Rip Current Statement issued September 19 at 3:30AM EDT until September 19 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS View the full article
  14. MD 1983 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN AND NORTHERN IOWA...SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...AND PARTS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN Mesoscale Discussion 1983 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Areas affected...eastern Nebraska...western and northern Iowa...southeastern Minnesota...and parts of western Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 190328Z - 190530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to develop across the MCD area, with potential that a few instances of hail -- and possibly wind gusts -- approach severe levels. A WW is not anticipated, due to the expected local/limited risk. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows thunderstorms developing over the eastern Nebraska vicinity, near and to the cool side of a surface cold front, roughly in line with CAM forecasts across this region. The storms are developing atop a stabilizing -- and for the most part post-frontal -- boundary layer, which should serve to limit severe potential. With that said, steep lapse rates aloft above the decoupling boundary layer -- as sampled by area 00Z RAOBs -- are contributing to substantial elevated CAPE. This will permit a few stronger/possibly rotating updrafts to evolve from time to time, aided by marginally sufficient shear through the cloud-bearing layer. With storms which can develop nearer the front, a locally stronger wind gust or two may occur. However, hail approaching or exceeding severe levels will remain the greater risk with the most robust storms. At this time, risk is expected to remain sufficiently limited such that WW issuance is likely to remain unnecessary. However, we will continue to monitor storm evolution, for signs of robust development in close proximity to the advancing front, which would -- given greater risk for wind in such a scenario -- warrant greater concern with respect to WW necessity. ..Goss/Edwards.. 09/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID... LAT...LON 41259780 41939762 44559420 45489252 44889140 43299183 40939554 40669715 41259780 Read more View the full article
  15. Rip Current Statement issued September 18 at 10:47PM EDT until September 19 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS View the full article
  16. No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Sep 19 00:01:02 UTC 2019. View the full article
  17. TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL1020192100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTEN HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FORST. MAARTEN.METEO-FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MARTIN ANDST. BARTHELEMY.SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...* ST. MAARTEN* ST. MARTIN* ST. BARTHELEMYA TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AREPOSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITORTHE PROGRESS OF JERRY. FURTHER WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED THIS EVENINGOR OVERNIGHT.TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 50.5W AT 18/2100ZPOSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NMPRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KTESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MBMAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
  18. MD 1982 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 1982 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0531 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Areas affected...Portions of Southeast Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 182231Z - 190000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A localized tornado threat will persist for the next hour or two between Houston and Beaumont. DISCUSSION...Several mini-supercells have exhibited low-level rotation in the past hour with the cluster of storms between Houston and Beaumont. One of these cells showed a tight low-level couplet and probable TDS in far eastern Harris County around 22Z. Daytime heating south of this activity has increased temperatures into the 80s with dewpoints remaining in the mid to upper 70s. This has yielded MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg. The KHGX VWP shows some low-level SRH, but the low-level shear is more favorable at KLCH with 0-1 SRH around 125 m2/s2. However, the environment in southern Louisiana is more stable due to ongoing precipitation. Therefore, there is a narrow corridor where this better low-level shear and instability overlaps where the environment is favorable for a brief tornado threat. Given the limited area and the expected short duration of this threat, a watch is unlikely. ..Bentley.. 09/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... LAT...LON 29799533 29999502 30099469 29999430 29629428 29469455 29399484 29499517 29679535 29799533 Read more View the full article
  19. Special Weather Statement issued September 18 at 4:19PM EDT by NWS View the full article
  20. Rip Current Statement issued September 18 at 4:12PM EDT until September 21 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS View the full article
  21. Rip Current Statement issued September 18 at 3:40PM EDT until September 19 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS View the full article
  22. Special Weather Statement issued September 18 at 3:26PM EDT by NWS View the full article
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