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NorthGeorgiaWX

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Everything posted by NorthGeorgiaWX

  1. Ok... going out on a limb by creating this post, but I believe there is enough model justification to warrant it. No guarantees! 😜 The models are all beginning to show threats for this time period even though we're 10 days or so away. The mythical blocking is finally appearing, major cold intrusions, and glimpses of snow across the southeast are all part of the picture. This is unfolding exactly as expected and it appears that winter may be settling in for quite a while. The models are still all over the place, so continue to expect large swings in the model runs. Later this evening, I'll try to put something together to help illustrate the changes that we're seeing. But I can tell you this... my excitement level has gone up considerably today. 🙂
  2. NorthGeorgiaWX

    Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27

    Right now, not a big deal.
  3. NorthGeorgiaWX

    Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27

    Sorry, just got back from my old school! I went to help get my replacement person up to speed on what I did there, so I need to see what's going on while I was away. But first... I need to go exercise. 🙂 You haven't missed anything so far and one more hour isn't going to cause you to miss any earth shattering weather update. 😜 I'll be back for an afternoon update for you, .
  4. Frost Advisory issued January 16 at 12:06PM EST until January 17 at 9:00AM EST by NWS View the full article
  5. Flood Warning issued January 16 at 10:39AM EST until January 19 at 11:30PM EST by NWS View the full article
  6. Flood Warning issued January 16 at 10:05AM EST until further notice by NWS View the full article
  7. Flood Warning issued January 16 at 10:05AM EST until further notice by NWS View the full article
  8. Flood Warning issued January 16 at 10:05AM EST until further notice by NWS View the full article
  9. NorthGeorgiaWX

    January 16, Wednesday

    Good morning to everyone! I'm getting anxious with anticipation. So I know how everyone feels, at least those that want to see some some snow. I do like seeing the area to our north getting covered in snow, because that just means that the cold air will be colder when it arrives here. The snow pack drops surface temps considerably compared to bare ground, so as the cold air passes over, it doesn't get a chance to warm up like it normally would. Here is the current snow cover map. More snow will be laid down between now and Sunday to reinforce the snow that's already there. Before we get to Sunday, there will be rain and a chance for some thunder, and that thunder may include a low chance for a tornado, so this is something we need to watch over the next several days. The rain starts Thursday and will continue all the way into Sunday with another 0.5"-2" of rain for some folks. Sunday is when the big flip begins. Cold air will come rushing in behind the front and give the northern tier of counties a possible dusting of snow. We're not looking for any warm days for a while after Sunday, so don't get use to the temperatures this week. I think the Euro is more correct on the temps compared to the GFS, and apparently the NWS does too. Official NWS Forecast for Monday morning lows Euro GFS
  10. NorthGeorgiaWX

    January 16, Wednesday

    Brilliant!
  11. NorthGeorgiaWX

    Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27

    Weatherbell Daily Video Update
  12. NorthGeorgiaWX

    Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27

    Again, great example of cross-polar flow
  13. NorthGeorgiaWX

    Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27

    I hope everyone understands the significance of what Brad is saying about cross-polar flow. Cross-polar flow allows Siberian air to be transported to our side of the hemisphere. Yes, moderation occurs, but take a look at the coldest Canadian temps right now And then take a look at the coldest temperatures int he Northern Hemisphere. Siberia. So there is PLENTY of cold to tap in to. Just let the pattern settle in and settle down, and you'll see the sub-tropical jet bringing all kinds of potential to the southeast.
  14. NorthGeorgiaWX

    Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27

    I think over the course of the next 7-10 days, you'll be seeing a lot of the "Quite the colder adjustment..." statements coming up.
  15. NorthGeorgiaWX

    January 16, Wednesday

  16. NorthGeorgiaWX

    Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27

    Should be frost, I had a lot this morning.
  17. NorthGeorgiaWX

    Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27

    This is what I was saying. Let the pattern get established. Winter is coming.
  18. Flood Warning issued January 16 at 8:14AM EST until January 20 at 7:00AM EST by NWS View the full article
  19. Flood Warning issued January 16 at 8:13AM EST until further notice by NWS View the full article
  20. Flood Warning issued January 16 at 8:13AM EST until January 19 at 11:30PM EST by NWS View the full article
  21. Flood Warning issued January 16 at 8:13AM EST until January 20 at 7:00PM EST by NWS View the full article
  22. Flood Warning issued January 16 at 8:13AM EST until January 20 at 7:00PM EST by NWS View the full article
  23. NorthGeorgiaWX

    Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27

    Nice to get mentioned!
  24. NorthGeorgiaWX

    Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27

    Guys... ye of little faith. 😄 Patience. The forecast is unfolding as planned. You are putting WAY too much emphasis on the modeling solutions right now. The changes that are forcing this pattern flip are well known at this point (seasonal jet changes, major stratospheric warming, weak Modoki el Nino, placement of warm/cool pools in the oceans, low solar), and the tropospheric response to those is well known. The models ARE showing what's coming, but you have to pay close attention to the details of those. All of those details are hidden in the chaos they are spitting out right now. We do know that the track of the first storm will cut, and we know why, it's been telegraphed why for a week now. No surprises. We need to get settled in the pattern. Look, it hasn't done the major flip yet. The models are still dealing with that portion and need to get that correct before they can possibly look out 10 days or longer. Look at the teleconnections. The EPS and GEFS agree on this. Every one of these goes into the most favorable position they could, all synchronized perfectly. -AO -NAO +PNA -EPO So surprise! The operational doesn't jive with it's own ensemble teleconnections! And think about this too, for the 00Z run of both operational models today, the Monday low temps are 10 degrees warmer on the GFS operational. NWS sided with the Euro. Not sure what goes on with the GFS operational sometimes. Either way, both the Euro and GFS support the teleconnection ideas, and those are about as favorable as they get.
  25. NorthGeorgiaWX

    Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27

    Today's Daily Update! http://wx.northgeorgiawx.com/forums/topic/4189-january-16-wednesday/
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