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Everything posted by NorthGeorgiaWX

  1. Hey Christine! I am doing great, how about you? How's school going? Yes, it appears that this may be an above average snow year for us, at least the way things are looking now. We may have a little warm up going into December, but nothing too bad.
  2. Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 146 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2019 Valid 12Z Sat Nov 16 2019 - 12Z Wed Nov 20 2019 Pattern Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment: Upper pattern will transition toward western troughing and eastern quasi-zonal flow in about a week, after a two successive systems lift northeastward along the East Coast. In the West, upper ridging will weaken as it slides eastward atop a closed upper low moving away from Baja California. This will pave the way for a Pacific shortwave to dig through interior California as downstream heights rise in response. Off the Southeast coast, the models have come into better agreement with mostly some timing differences as it looms offshore. Model blend sufficed given recent shifts in the ECMWF/GFS. 12Z UKMET/Canadian were close enough to the ensemble range as well. Upstream system will act to kick the lead shortwave along, but reinforce the surface boundary along the Gulf Stream. This may develop another low and off the NC coast which should move quicker out to sea as heights rebound. In the West, lead front into Washington will weaken in favor of a stronger shortwave on its heels. The ECMWF has been most aggressive with this feature and dug it farther southwest than the other guidance. GFS has been more in line with the ensembles but given how much upstream ridging is forecast to build into the Gulf of Alaska, the ECMWF solution cannot be ruled out completely. This would carry a cold front through the Great Basin into the Four Corners region by next Wednesday. Weather Highlights/Threats: Below average temperatures in the East will slowly moderate back toward more typical mid-November values by early next week. Much of the West will have temperatures above normal by 5-15 degrees through this weekend, cooling early next week with the arrival of the next upper trough. The system off the Southeast/mid-Atlantic coast should keep the heaviest rains offshore but should be close enough to produce at least showers along the I-95 corridor. Heavier rain is possible right along the coast of North Carolina. The strong pressure gradient between the low sfc high over New England will lead to windy conditions along the coast. The precipitation shield will move northward into New England early next week where temperatures may be cold enough for some snow in higher elevations. Several systems out of the Pacific will maintain a rather wet period for at least coastal Washington/Oregon and the Cascades, with less rain/snow along and just west of the Continental Divide. With increased troughing toward the Southwest next week, some light precipitation will be possible late Tue into Wed. Fracasso Links WPC Excessive Rain Discussion WPC Short Range Discussion WPC Extended Range Discussion WPC Model Diagnostic Discussion WPC 500 MB Preferred Heights WPC 500 MB Height Trends WPC 7 Day Max Temp - Anomaly WPC 7 Day Min Temp - Anomaly WPC Significant Lows with Tracks WPC SLP Trends
  3. Good morning! Are you a little cold this morning? 😉 Temps are in the teens across the mountains this morning with the rest of the area not too far behind. And cold it is, not just here, but all across the eastern US. 136 sites will hit or be close to a record low this morning. These are the low temperature anomalies for this morning. And these will be the low temperature anomalies for Thursday. You always hear me talking about the precipitable water values, but usually they are high when I bring them up because of increased chances for rain. But in this case... it's the opposite, the air is extremely dry. These are forecast values, I believe they are lower than this right now. This shows the percentage above/or below normal. Looks like we are running about 10-20% of what is normal for today. There will be a good chance for rain Friday with another 1-2" across the area. So enjoy this early winter! It sure beats 90's in my book! 🙂
  4. NW flow can create downslope winds which warm also. You see that often. It was easy to see on the visible satellite images today, there was a sunny area surrounded by clouds.
  5. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 433 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2019 .SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/... Brief Wintry Mix Possible in Far North Georgia This Morning Satellite analysis this morning indicates a very impressive troughing pattern from the eastern Great Lakes down the western Appalachian then over into central Texas. Along it, radar shows a band of precip, mostly consisting of rain with reports of some sleet and snow on the rear of the line as an Arctic cold front has quickly plunged into the northwestern forecast area, which will bring unseasonably cold temperatures along with it. Behind the front, an extremely large area of subsidence shows the extent of the Arctic high pressure behind the frontal system. The center of the high currently sits in the central plains with a central pressure around 1043hPa. Throughout the morning, the cold front will continue quickly pushing southeast with the entire forecast area expected to be behind the front by noon today. Behind the front, strong gradient winds will prevail with sustained winds up to 20 mph and gusts between 25-35 mph possible. A Wind Advisory has been issued through 7 PM. As the line of precip moves through the area, most of us will see a little over a half inch of rain in total with temperatures varying widely across the forecast area as the cold air move into the region. In the far northern portions of the forecast area, a race between subfreezing air moving into the area and drier air behind the front eroding away the precip will determine if and how much wintry precip could occur. Model guidance has been very consistent with this system for several days and have been pushing towards a transition from rain to a mix of snow and sleet, to a chance for an hours-worth of light snow before the precip dries up in the cold, dry airmass. Chances for any wintry precip will be primarily confined to the northernmost 2 rows of Georgia counties and will have the best chances in areas over 2000 feet in elevation. Roads in these higher elevations could become slick by early morning where temperatures fall below freezing for an extended period of time. Any accumulations of wintry precip are expected to be minor and not cause significant impacts at this time. For more details, please see the most recent Special Weather Statement. While temperatures this afternoon are expected to stall as cold air advection is countered by diurnal heating, tonight temperatures will plummet once the sun begins going down and the skies clear. These will be by far the coldest temperatures of the season with Columbus and Macon in danger of setting record low temperatures. Lows are forecast around 20 for far north Georgia and mid- to upper-20s are forecast along and southeast of the I-85 corridor. A Freeze Warning has been issued for the remainder of our forecast area where the Autumn Frost/Freeze program remains in effect. Tomorrow, the high pressure will be moving across the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic, and will dominate the weather pattern. Clear skies will allow high temps to climb back into the mid- to upper-40s, with light winds out of the east becoming breezy during the afternoon. Thiem
  6. Good morning! It's 4:02 AM so an early edition today! Current situation Back in a little while with more updates.
  7. Current temperature and 24 hour temperature change.
  8. SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/... ...Wintry Mix Possible Across Far Northern Tier Tonight... Hard to believe we will be talking about wintry wx possible later this evening based on the temperatures we have out there right now. Widespread upper 60s with even some lower 70s for central GA are commonplace. But a strong cold front continues to push into the Tennessee Valley at this hour with temperatures quickly dropping into the lower 30s in its immediate wake. Showers are developing well ahead of this and already pushing into Northern Alabama at this hour. Expect main axis of precipitation to move into the state by mid to late evening and then progress into the remainder of North GA into the first half of the overnight period. This initial period will be all rain for the area with any frozen precipitation occurring on the back edge of the precipitation shield. Temperatures will be plummeting behind the front which is concerning given the model temps below freezing. Ground temps however should remain above freezing through most of the precip limiting any travel issues. Hi res models are really hitting the freezing rain potential hard. However, this is not climatologically favored at all for this area, transitioning to freezing rain on the back side of a cold front. Will still need to be monitored but for this forecast will be favoring more of a sleet/snow mixture with the rain. Could see some "flash" aspects to this event once precip exits and residual water on roadways freezes with fast arriving sub freezing temps. Overall however, with limited accumulations mainly for the higher elevations and warm initial ground temps, will do an SPS in lieu of any advisories at this time. Will issue a wind advisory with this package starting tonight and going on through Tuesday for all but the far eastern tier counties. Wind chills look to remain just above criteria but will need to be monitored closely.
  9. For those in east Tennessee, here's the latest update for you.
  10. OK, let's compare! The are, from left to right, the NAM3km, Canadian, GFS, and Euro. All of these cover 4 AM through at least 10 AM Tuesday. 4:00 AM 7:00 AM 10:00 AM The GFS is a little faster (a bias) taking the system out quickly while the Euro and the NAM keep it around a little longer. These are 1 pm Tuesday So I'll continue watching and let you know how the models evolve of the day!
  11. Good Monday morning and happy Veterans Day to all of those who serve or have served in the military! Thank you for your service and sacrifice! The morning big picture. Notice the VERy cold air that's building over Canada. This morning I'll share the thoughts from several NWS offices that surround our area so you can get a better idea about the cold air and potential for winter weather. Let's start off with NWS Huntsville. They usually have great AFD's and tend to explain things very well. NWS Huntsville NWS Birmingham NWS Atlanta Here is the official NWS forecast for snow. So you can see, we're on the edge but not on the good side of the edge. 😉 I'll be watching the progression today and if I need to make any updates I will. Right now the mountains may see some flakes of snow, but it will be more of a novelty than anything else. Hope everyone has a great Veterans Day!
  12. This is the view. 🙂 I had to piece two pictures together and still didn't get all of it, nor does it do the view any justice. We have a contract. 🙂 This is looking out the Great Room window.
  13. Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 144 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 Valid 12Z Thu Nov 14 2019 - 12Z Mon Nov 18 2019 Pattern Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment: Amplified pattern with rebuilding western ridging and eastern troughing is forecast to hold into next week. Multi-day consistency and inter-ensemble system clustering has been subpar which again leads to a majority ensemble mean weighting next week. Trend has been for a bit more interaction in the Southeast between a exiting/weakening upper low over Mexico and northern stream troughing through the TN Valley Friday, leading to surface low pressure organizing around Florida. How far this moves offshore vs up the coast remains unclear but have trended a bit closer to the coast yet still offshore Sat-Sun (enough to keep QPF over the I-95 corridor). In the West, differences between the ensembles were reflected in the 12Z GFS vs ECMWF/Canadian-- the latter showed an upper low perhaps splitting off well southwest of California and remaining offshore as upper ridging builds atop the low rather while the former moved it inland into the Baja. Ensembles were split but slightly favored the ECMWF-led solution. Tempered this via the 12Z/10 ECMWF ensemble mean. This also worked well in the East/Southeast as the 12Z ECMWF was quite robust with offshore low pressure vs its ensemble mean. Low confidence in this series of events in the East. Weather Highlights/Threats: Well below average temperatures will ease after Thursday. However, highs will remain about 5-15 degrees below average along and east of the Mississippi through next weekend. Along/west of the Rockies (but including parts of the Front Range and central Plains), temperatures will stay above average by about 5-15 degrees. Interaction between the southern upper low and frontal boundary in the Gulf could spread rain (possibly modest amounts) along the I-10 corridor and across the Florida peninsula early in the period. The surface low off the Southeast coast should keep the heaviest rains offshore, though depending on coastal proximity, heavy rains may clip the coastline. Next system into the Pacific Northwest will provide focused rain/snow to coastal/mountain OR/WA Thu-Fri with much less east of the Divide. Yet another system may approach Washington late next Sunday into Monday. Fracasso Links WPC Excessive Rain Discussion WPC Short Range Discussion WPC Extended Range Discussion WPC Model Diagnostic Discussion WPC 500 MB Preferred Heights WPC 500 MB Height Trends WPC 7 Day Max Temp - Anomaly WPC 7 Day Min Temp - Anomaly WPC Significant Lows with Tracks WPC SLP Trends
  14. Good Sunday morning! 🙂 Another nippy morning today! We left around 8 AM yesterday to go up to Big Canoe and the temps even at 9:30 or so were in the upper 30's there. It will be mild today and tomorrow, so enjoy it while you can, because it's going to get wintertime cold. Let's see what the NWS thinks about Tuesday... These are the official forecast temperatures for 1 PM and 7 PM on Tuesday and it's downhill from there. I'll watch it today and we'll know a little more this evening. I'm obviously running a little late today but I'll get you all caught up this evening. 🙂
  15. Good morning, good morning! Let's jump right in with the Weather Prediction Center's Extended forecast discussion. No need to retype it, here's what I posted this morning. There is still a chance that some of the higher elevations may see some type of winter weather next week, but we're still too far out to know for sure. People have sent me the Glenn Burns hype post from yesterday, and I'm not sure why he was so fired up. There will be a closed upper level low that will slide across the southern US and along the Gulf coast. In the winter time, those are the things weather weenies dream of, and especially if it can phase with northern stream energy. If that happens, you then get a big BOOM and a massive snowstorm. But first... this is still fall, and while our temps will be well below normal for this time of the year, it's still not winter. Second, a system like this requires precise timing and that rarely happens. So for now, the higher elevations of the mountains in GA "may" see a little of the white stuff, but it won't really stick (ground too warm) if it snows at all. The system next weekend that Glenn was fired up about holds some promise, but at this distance, we truly have no idea what it might do. First... this weekend. 6:30 AM temps But let's move on to the two main systems for next week. Headed up to Big Canoe this morning to look at a couple more houses so I'm keeping it short this morning... I can't wait to get to the mountains. 🙂 I hope everyone has a great day!
  16. Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 140 AM EST Sat Nov 09 2019 Valid 12Z Tue Nov 12 2019 - 12Z Sat Nov 16 2019 Record cold next week for much of the central/eastern states Pattern Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment: Punctuated upper ridging will meander off the coast of California, favoring troughing east of the Rockies. Over Mexico, a slow-moving closed low will eventually rejoin the southern edge of the westerlies after Wednesday and track across the northern Gulf of Mexico. The models/ensembles were in good agreement overall but with varying degrees of speed/track/evolution differences in a fairly perturbed pattern. The 12Z GFS/ECMWF and 00Z ECMWF formed much of the base for the forecast with the 12Z NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble mean as a needed smoother. Largest differences were in the Southeast as the Mexican upper low and a northern stream shortwave merge/phase/interact which may induce cyclogenesis and increase precipitation over the region. 12Z ECMWF appeared too aggressive but the 12Z GFS too quick (both their biases). 12Z ECMWF ensemble mean and NAEFS mean were weaker but perhaps better placed, along with the 00Z/08 ECMWF (just offshore). Secondarily, troughing in the eastern Pacific may approach California in some fashion as a shortwave may crest the upper ridge along 140W. Ensembles have trended more bullish but will need to wait to see if any precipitation can be realized south of NorCal. Weather Highlights/Threats: Cold Canadian high pressure will move out of the central/southern Plains Tuesday and into the Ohio Valley by Wednesday, bringing in well below average temperatures that will likely break daily records across a sizable area of the eastern half of the CONUS Tue-Wed. This equates to high temperatures in the 40s from Texas into the lower MS Valley, 30s in the TN Valley, 20s in the Midwest, and teens in the northern Great Lakes, which is more typical of mid-winter in some locations. For some, this could be the earliest in the season such cold will be observed in the period of record. Temperatures will moderate for later in the week as the high moves offshore and weakens, but highs will remain about 10-15 degrees below average along and east of the Mississippi into next Friday. West of the Rockies (but including parts of the Front Range), temperatures will stay above average by about 5-10 degrees. Low pressure will move out of New England Tuesday with a swath of snow to the northwest of the track and lake-effect snows for the Great Lakes with very cold temperatures aloft over still warm water. By the end of the week, the upper low once over Mexico will reach the Gulf and its interaction with a frontal boundary could spread increasingly heavier precipitation over the Southeast as low pressure develops near Florida. This may lift northeastward into next Saturday along the coast with some high elevation snow possible for the southern Appalachians per the current evolution in the lingering cold air mass. Fracasso Links WPC Excessive Rain Discussion WPC Short Range Discussion WPC Extended Range Discussion WPC Model Diagnostic Discussion WPC 500 MB Preferred Heights WPC 500 MB Height Trends WPC 7 Day Max Temp - Anomaly WPC 7 Day Min Temp - Anomaly WPC Significant Lows with Tracks WPC SLP Trends
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