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NorthGeorgiaWX

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  1. MD 0696 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN NM AND PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN TX Mesoscale Discussion 0696 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019 Areas affected...eastern NM and portions of the OK/TX Panhandles into western TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 200456Z - 200700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop by 1-3 am CDT. Large hail will be the main concern with activity through early morning. A watch will likely be needed in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Strong southeasterly flow through around 1 km continues to bring rich Gulf moisture northwest across TX into eastern NM late this evening. Dewpoints have increased 8 to 16 degrees in the last 3 hours from the Davis Mountain region in western TX into southeastern NM as evidence of this strong moisture surge. Regional 00z RAOBs from CRP and DRT showed surface dewpoints of 80 and 69 F respectively. As such, deeper boundary layer moisture is expected to overspread much of western TX and into far eastern NM overnight. A resulting surge in instability will accompany the moisture return and MLCAPE values around 500 J/kg were already shifting northwest into southeast NM. As this trend continues the next few hours, modest forcing along a surface dryline and subtle impulses ejecting from eastward progressing upper trough over the western Great Basin should trigger convective initiation in the 06-08z time frame. Water vapor and IR satellite imagery indicate a subtle wave is spreading northeast across southern AZ and northern Mexico as of 0430z with increasing cloud cover and cooling cloud temps noted in addition to more agitated cloud features over southeast NM into far west TX. This initial activity will likely be elevated given the cool boundary layer. However, impressive effective shear of 60+ kt with large, curved hodographs will support rotating/supercell structures. Hail will be the main concern with this activity overnight, though a 40-50 kt south/southwesterly low level jet could result in upscale growth into a squall line or bowing segments. Given surface inhibition, the wind and tornado threat should remain limited until after sunrise. A watch will likely be needed for portions of the MCD area by around 06-07z. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/20/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33080403 34960410 35710420 36220395 36580355 36870265 36880202 36740147 36220095 35420082 34240128 33110180 32310249 32150294 32080338 32480392 33080403 Read more View the full article
  2. No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon May 20 01:46:01 UTC 2019. View the full article
  3. MD 0695 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MS...SOUTHEAST AR...NORTHERN LA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST TX Mesoscale Discussion 0695 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0721 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019 Areas affected...portions of northwest MS...southeast AR...northern LA and extreme northeast TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 200021Z - 200145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind gusts and small hail are possible with strongest storms the next 2-3 hours. Overall threat should remain very isolated and a watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered but robust thunderstorms development was occurring along the surface cold front located across southeast AR toward the ArkLaTex vicinity. Ahead of the cold front, a very warm and moist airmass with temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the low 70s was resulting in strong instability and steep low level lapse rates within an area of modest effective shear. Midlevel lapse rates are rather poor across the region and this should hinder longevity of intense organized updrafts. Given weak low level shear combined with high PWs and steep 0-3 km lapse rates, strong to locally damaging wind gusts are possible the next couple of hours. Some small hail may also be possible with strongest cells. Overall, the threat should remain limited in time, space and scope, and is expected to diminish quickly this evening with loss of daytime heating and a stabilizing boundary layer. As such, a watch is not expected. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/20/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 34639091 34939018 34878981 34668953 34008974 33329016 32739092 32269184 32089241 31859361 32079442 32359451 32659451 32899411 33179332 33909208 34639091 Read more View the full article
  4. MD 0693 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA...NJ...SOUTHERN NY AND WESTERN MA/CT Mesoscale Discussion 0693 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0555 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019 Areas affected...portions of eastern PA...NJ...southern NY and western MA/CT Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 192255Z - 200030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A new watch may be needed downstream of WW 192 and 193. Locally damaging wind and hail threat could persist for several more hours eastward toward the I-95 corridor and southern NY. DISCUSSION...Scattered severe thunderstorms continue to track northeast across central and eastern PA and eastern NY. Storms have remained semi-discrete with a tenancy toward upscale growth into bowing structures. Convection may persist beyond the 01z expiration time of WW 192 and 193 across parts of far western PA into southern NY and NJ where a very moist airmass (surface dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. As a result, a corridor of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE resides from southeast PA into southern NY. Effective shear around 30 kt should remain adequate to support semi-organized structures into this evening and a locally damaging wind and hail threat could spread eastward toward the I-95 corridor/southern NY through around 04-05z. As such, a new watch may be needed. Instability quickly diminishes with eastward extent into western MA/CT and parts of Long Island where cloud cover has limited heating and dewpoints to the east of a quasi-stationary/warm frontal boundary are only in the 50s F. This should result in a a quickly diminishing severe threat east of the Hudson Valley. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... LAT...LON 41667523 42207451 42347419 42337390 42267340 42037320 40687330 40087359 39737410 39597472 39607540 39777587 40087605 40787587 41667523 Read more View the full article
  5. MD 0694 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 194... FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...CENTRAL/NORTHERN INDIANA Mesoscale Discussion 0694 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0600 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019 Areas affected...Southeast Michigan...Central/northern Indiana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 194... Valid 192300Z - 200100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 194 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail will continue in WW 194 for another couple of hours. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with the stronger, discrete storms. A downstream watch is not expected given the stable airmass ahead of the ongoing activity. DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection from southern Michigan to south of Indianapolis has been producing wind damage reports over the last two hours. Wind gusts have generally been higher in Indiana where instability is slightly greater. Measured wind gusts over the last hour or two have generally ranged from 45 to near 60 mph. A few clusters of storms have organized into small bowing segments in both Michigan and Indiana. The threat for damaging winds will be relative maximized ahead of that activity. A few storms have remained more discrete in northern Indiana into southern Michigan. A few of these storms have shown signs of transient low-level rotation with on storm having possibly produced a brief tornado in Barry County, MI per KGRR dual-pol data. Both KGRR and KIWX VAD profiles do show relatively large low-level shear; however, given the very modest instability as well as most of the deep-layer shear being concentrated in the lowest few kilometers, the overall tornado threat should be limited. With the downstream environment having very limited instability, the need for a downstream watch is unlikely. ..Wendt.. 05/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...GRR...IND... LAT...LON 42538635 43028590 43078479 42838441 41338455 40368478 39398523 39048555 38818667 39408739 42538635 Read more View the full article
  6. MD 0694 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 194... FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...CENTRAL/NORTHERN INDIANA Mesoscale Discussion 0694 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0600 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019 Areas affected...Southeast Michigan...Central/northern Indiana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 194... Valid 192300Z - 200100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 194 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail will continue in WW 194 for another couple of hours. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with the stronger, discrete storms. A downstream watch is not expected given the stable airmass ahead of the ongoing activity. DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection from southern Michigan to south of Indianapolis has been producing wind damage reports over the last two hours. Wind gusts have generally been higher in Indiana where instability is slightly greater. Measured wind gusts over the last hour or two have generally ranged from 45 to near 60 mph. A few clusters of storms have organized into small bowing segments in both Michigan and Indiana. The threat for damaging winds will be relative maximized ahead of that activity. A few storms have remained more discrete in northern Indiana into southern Michigan. A few of these storms have shown signs of transient low-level rotation with on storm having possibly produced a brief tornado in Barry County, MI per KGRR dual-pol data. Both KGRR and KIWX VAD profiles do show relatively large low-level shear; however, given the very modest instability as well as most of the deep-layer shear being concentrated in the lowest few kilometers, the overall tornado threat should be limited. With the downstream environment having very limited instability, the need for a downstream watch is unlikely. ..Wendt.. 05/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...GRR...IND... LAT...LON 42538635 43028590 43078479 42838441 41338455 40368478 39398523 39048555 38818667 39408739 42538635 Read more View the full article
  7. MD 0693 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA...NJ...SOUTHERN NY AND WESTERN MA/CT Mesoscale Discussion 0693 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0555 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019 Areas affected...portions of eastern PA...NJ...southern NY and western MA/CT Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 192255Z - 200030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A new watch may be needed downstream of WW 192 and 193. Locally damaging wind and hail threat could persist for several more hours eastward toward the I-95 corridor and southern NY. DISCUSSION...Scattered severe thunderstorms continue to track northeast across central and eastern PA and eastern NY. Storms have remained semi-discrete with a tenancy toward upscale growth into bowing structures. Convection may persist beyond the 01z expiration time of WW 192 and 193 across parts of far western PA into southern NY and NJ where a very moist airmass (surface dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. As a result, a corridor of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE resides from southeast PA into southern NY. Effective shear around 30 kt should remain adequate to support semi-organized structures into this evening and a locally damaging wind and hail threat could spread eastward toward the I-95 corridor/southern NY through around 04-05z. As such, a new watch may be needed. Instability quickly diminishes with eastward extent into western MA/CT and parts of Long Island where cloud cover has limited heating and dewpoints to the east of a quasi-stationary/warm frontal boundary are only in the 50s F. This should result in a a quickly diminishing severe threat east of the Hudson Valley. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... LAT...LON 41667523 42207451 42347419 42337390 42267340 42037320 40687330 40087359 39737410 39597472 39607540 39777587 40087605 40787587 41667523 Read more View the full article
  8. MD 0692 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN LOUISIANA AND FAR EAST TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 0692 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019 Areas affected...Western Louisiana and far East Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 192049Z - 192215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail/damaging wind threat, watch unlikely. DISCUSSION...Convection has developed on the western periphery of an outflow boundary draped across much of Louisiana, left over from a morning/early afternoon MCS. Here, strong insolation has led to rapid destabilization, with MLCAPE values of 2500-3500 J/kg. This instability along with effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt across the region is helping to organize the convection into marginal supercell structures. These storms will pose a risk for large hail and damaging outflow winds, however, the overall coverage of storms is expected to remain isolated, and thus a watch is not expected at this time. ..Karstens/Hart.. 05/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 29869253 29799376 30559468 31909434 32339348 32019206 31239169 30389187 29869253 Read more View the full article
  9. MD 0691 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 193... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA Mesoscale Discussion 0691 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019 Areas affected...Parts of central and eastern Pennsylvania into central Maryland and northern Virginia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 193... Valid 192041Z - 192215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 193 continues. SUMMARY...Risk for severe hail/localized strong surface gusts may evolve into an increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts through 6-8 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Large-scale forcing for ascent still seems negligible, but a number of discrete storms have developed across the higher terrain east of the Allegheny Front, with 20-30 kt southwesterly deep layer ambient mean flow contributing to the advection of storms off the higher terrain. Surface dew point increases into the mid 60s to near 70f degrees across southern and eastern Pennsylvania has contributed to considerable boundary layer destabilization during the past couple of hours, with objective analysis indicating mixed-layer CAPE now on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. Given this instability, further upscale convective growth appears possible as storms spread eastward through 6-8 PM. The latest Rapid Refresh suggests that this may coincide with some strengthening of southerly 850 mb flow to near 30 kt. This could contribute to at least marginally sufficient vertical shear for an organizing convective system that could become accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 05/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 41727673 41747589 41297524 40747519 39947569 39227730 39137804 39647850 40667795 41727673 Read more View the full article
  10. MD 0690 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR WESTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS Mesoscale Discussion 0690 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019 Areas affected...Western Michigan and Northern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 192027Z - 192130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts possible, watch is being issued. DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows an arc of convection crossing Lake Michigan and entering portions of western Michigan. These storms have a history of producing localized damaging wind gusts across portions of southeast Wisconsin and northeast Illinois. The airmass ahead of these storms has been slow to destabilize, as ongoing convection/trailing stratiform precipitation and associated cloud cover has limited insolation across the region thus far. Despite regional satellite showing a narrow ribbon of clearing now entering the region, instability is expected to remain quite weak (MLCAPE < 1000 J/kg). However, a few damaging wind gusts are possible, given effective bulk shear of 55-65 kt. A watch is being issued for this region. ..Karstens/Hart.. 05/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT... LAT...LON 40968565 40948678 41278715 42188644 43008618 43708648 44258619 44218495 43008394 41408454 41148495 40968565 Read more View the full article
  11. MD 0689 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 192... FOR PARTS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO CENTRAL VERMONT Mesoscale Discussion 0689 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019 Areas affected...Parts of Upstate New York into central Vermont Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 192... Valid 192007Z - 192130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 192 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may consolidate and organize through 5-7 PM EDT, accompanied by increasing potential for strong surface winds along a strengthening gust front. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have remained largely discrete, but have increased considerably in number over the past couple of hours, largely focused along a stalled or perhaps slowly northward retreating frontal zone. Aided by large-scale forcing for ascent associated with warm advection along/immediately to the cool side of the boundary, there still appears potential for a small upscale growing cluster of storms across southern portions of the Adirondacks and parts of the Mohawk Valley between now and 21-23Z. Inflow will continue to emanate from moist boundary air now characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, and perhaps locally increasing as high as 2000 J/kg. Deep layer west-southwesterly mean ambient flow remains on the order of 30-40 kt, but this, coupled with the development of a consolidating and strengthening convectively generated surface cold pool, could eventually contribute to a gust front with peak winds approaching or exceeding severe limits. ..Kerr.. 05/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 43117696 43597595 43737553 44237495 44247348 44017264 43277306 42897450 42787546 42627688 43117696 Read more View the full article
  12. MD 0688 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA Mesoscale Discussion 0688 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019 Areas affected...Central/Southern Illinois and Western Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191906Z - 192100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Localized severe hail/damaging wind potential, watch possible. DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a line of convection has developed along a pre-frontal trough extending across portions of central/southern Illinois. Thus far, development has been modulated by the weak amount of instability (MLCAPE < 1000 J/kg). However, storms should continue to gradually intensify as the airmass ahead of the line continues to destabilize with diabatic heating and the approaching upper-level trough. Effective bulk shear of 50-55 kt will help to organize the convection into primarily multicellular structures, with severe hail and a few damaging wind gusts possible. Should this storm evolution unfold and storm coverage continue to expand, a watch may be needed. ..Karstens/Hart.. 05/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 37798880 37988997 39428906 40458788 40478592 38388670 37798880 Read more View the full article
  13. MD 0687 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...WESTERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL/EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA Mesoscale Discussion 0687 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019 Areas affected...Parts of eastern West Virginia...northwestern Virginia...western Maryland and central/eastern Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191727Z - 191930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A further increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity is possible through 4-6 PM EDT. Some may become accompanied by gusty, potentially damaging outflow winds. It is not clear that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends will be monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...Initiation of scattered thunderstorm activity is underway across the higher terrain along and east of the Allegheny Front. This appears largely supported by orographic forcing, in the presence of weak to moderate destabilization driven by insolation within a moistening boundary layer. Convective development appears to be largely embedded within 20-30 kt southwesterly deep layer ambient mean flow, beneath residual mid-level ridging within the mid-latitude westerlies. However, the ridge axis is forecast to gradually shift eastward, into and across northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by 20-22Z. At the same time considerable further destabilization appears possible across much of central and eastern Pennsylvania, as seasonably high boundary layer moisture content continues to advect northward from Virginia and the Delmarva vicinity. This appears to provide potential for upscale growing thunderstorm development to spread off the higher terrain, accompanied gusty outflow winds capable of producing sporadic/localized damage. ..Kerr/Hart.. 05/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 41767793 42057640 41737514 40987482 39897580 39487720 38197835 37507997 38068033 40407897 41767793 Read more View the full article
  14. MD 0686 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF UPSTATE NEW YORK Mesoscale Discussion 0686 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019 Areas affected...Much of Upstate New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191651Z - 191845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...There appears increasing potential for strong to severe storm development across the region through 4-6 PM EDT. Trends are being monitored for the possibility of a severe weather watch within the next hour or two. DISCUSSION...Low-level warm advection along a stalling frontal zone, perhaps aided by convergence near the lake breeze, appears to have provided the support for thunderstorm initiation near the southern Lake Ontario coast. Further intensification and upscale growth of this convection appears possible during the next few hours, supported by inflow of increasingly unstable air emanating from a destabilizing boundary layer to the south of the front. With further insolation, models suggest that mixed-layer CAPE near the front may increase from 500 J/kg to in excess of 1000-1500 J/kg by 20-22Z. Embedded within sheared, 30-40 kt southwesterly to westerly deep layer mean ambient flow, potential exists for the evolution of a small but increasingly organized convective system as activity spreads into/through the Adirondacks vicinity and portions of the Mohawk Valley later this afternoon. This probably will be accompanied by at least some risk for hail and potentially damaging surface gusts. Additional thunderstorms may gradually initiate across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier of New York through the afternoon. However, potential coverage across this area is more unclear and may remain fairly isolated. ..Kerr/Hart.. 05/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 42797796 43087745 43267658 43937565 44177332 42867375 42027504 41907743 42057801 42797796 Read more View the full article
  15. Good Sunday morning! I hope everyone enjoyed the beautiful (but hot) Saturday! Another day just like it today with a small chance for an afternoon and evening thunderstorm, so get out on the lake or a pool (if one is open...) where you can stay cool and enjoy the day. No real changes in the forecast as high pressure stays in control of the weather over the southeast and that means increasing heat and decreasing rain chances as the week goes on. Here's a look at where the max high records may potentially be broken. Thursday Friday Saturday So yes... hot and dry. That also means the drought will continue to get worse over Georgia, and it's going to take a significant amount of rainfall to pull them out. Most of the drought maps have still not updated but this one has. Otherwise, not much to talk about here. There is a Moderate Risk area for severe weather over TX/OK tomorrow, so that is something to watch for. Here's a great satellite view of the action. I hope everyone enjoys this beautiful Sunday!
  16. MD 0685 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 191... FOR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA Mesoscale Discussion 0685 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019 Areas affected...southern Louisiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 191... Valid 191250Z - 191415Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 191 continues. SUMMARY...An MCS continues to traverse southern Louisiana with mainly a damaging wind threat. A brief tornado remains possible. DISCUSSION...A long-lived MCS with embedded areas of rotation is accelerating eastward across southern LA this morning. Strong wind gusts have been measured with the passage of the line, which earlier contained brief/QLCS tornadoes. Both the LCH and LIX soundings at 12Z show substantial low-level moisture and instability, although LIX shows a capping inversion above 700 mb, along with weaker wind fields. As the line continues east, it may begin to weaken somewhat but locally damaging winds will remain possible. Given lessening low-level shear over southeast LA, it is not certain that a new watch will be needed. ..Jewell.. 05/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 29689277 30009216 30399180 30779176 31059156 31339113 31639076 31779050 31628999 30848965 30038980 29379038 29139119 29379155 29489221 29539263 29689277 Read more View the full article
  17. Today in Weather History for May 19 May 19, 1780 The infamous "dark day" in New England tradition. At noon it was nearly as dark as night. Chickens went to roost, and many persons were fearful of divine wrath. The phenomena was caused by forest fires to the west of New England. (David Ludlum) May 19, 1955 Lake Maloya NM received 11.28 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel) May 19, 1975 Thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 110 mph in Minnesota, between Fridley and Hugo. Fifty persons were injured. The hail and high winds destroyed fifty mobile homes, and a dozen aircraft, and also destroyed a third of the Brighton Elementary School. (The Weather Channel) May 19, 1987 Thunderstorms in Texas produced thirteen inches of rain northwest of Lavernia. The heavy rain, along with golf ball size hail, destroyed eighty percent of the crops in the area, while high winds toppled trees. Golf ball size hail was also reported south of Dallas and around San Antonio. Up to eight inches of rain drenched Guadelupe County. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) May 19, 1988 Severe thunderstorms in southwest Texas produced hail as large as tennis balls around Midland, with the hail accumulating up to a foot deep. Showers and thunderstorms in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region produced 3.5 inches of rain near Schuylkill PA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) May 19, 1989 Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front spawned ten tornadoes from Illinois to Tennessee during the afternoon and night. Snow, wind and cold prevailed in the Northern Plateau Region and the Northern Rockies. Dixie, ID, was blanketed with nine inches of snow, winds gusted to 87 mph at Choteau MT, and the temperature at Crater Lake, OR, dipped to 11 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) May 19, 1990 Thunderstorms deluged Hot Springs AR with thirteen inches of rain in nine hours resulting in a devastating flood. Two waves of water, four to six feet deep, swept down Central Avenue flooding stores and the famous bathhouses on Bathhouse Row. Water released from Lake Hamilton devastated the area between it and Remmel Dam. The 500 foot Carpenter Dam Bridge across Lake Catherine was completely washed away, as were cabins and mobile homes near the lake, many of which flowed right over the top of Remmel Dam. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Data courtesy of WeatherForYou View the full article
  18. MD 0684 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR RIO GRANDE VALLEY/DEL RIO VICINITY Mesoscale Discussion 0684 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019 Areas affected...Rio Grande Valley/Del Rio vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 190943Z - 191215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated, slow-moving cells capable of hail may persist for a few hours, but a watch is unlikely. DISCUSSION...A small cluster of cells has recently developed in an area of weak low-level warm advection near a stationary low-level front. A very moist unstable air mass exists along and south of this front, and will support periodic strong updrafts capable of hail over 1.00". Otherwise, there is little else to suggest an uptick in coverage or organization in general. Straight hodographs will favor both left and right-moving cells. ..Jewell/Edwards.. 05/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX... LAT...LON 29590150 29740065 29679994 29219958 28529963 28380039 28880067 29160093 29460133 29590150 Read more View the full article
  19. MD 0683 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI Mesoscale Discussion 0683 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019 Areas affected...central Louisiana into southwest Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 190602Z - 190700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...At least a low-end tornado threat may extend south and east of the existing watches. Locally damaging winds are possible as well. DISCUSSION...A storm complex continues to move east across northern LA, and from southeast TX toward the Sabine River. While northern portions are linear, north-south oriented bands of storms continue to form to the south, with midlevel rotation noted on radar. Meanwhile, an outflow boundary continues to move south into central MS and northeast LA. The air mass ahead of these storms is very moist, and substantially unstable especially over LA. While deep-layer shear will decrease through the night due to the upper trough lifting across MO, sufficient southwest 850 mb winds will remain with shear at least marginally favorable for supercells. In the short term, area VWPs indicate 0-1 SRH on the order of 150-200 m2/s2, supporting a tornado threat. ..Jewell/Edwards.. 05/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 31579364 31839325 31989274 32129226 32299116 32279082 32039062 31459076 30679144 30389197 30179258 30169351 30249384 30659399 31259393 31579364 Read more View the full article
  20. MD 0682 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 189...190... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INTO SOUTHWEST LA AND SOUTHEAST TX Mesoscale Discussion 0682 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019 Areas affected...portions of northern into southwest LA and southeast TX Concerning...Tornado Watch 189...190... Valid 190453Z - 190630Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 189, 190 continues. SUMMARY...A continued threat for damaging winds a few tornadoes will continue across WW 189 and 190 the next several hours. DISCUSSION...A series of intense bowing segments continue to track east/northeast across eastern TX into northern LA. Most recently, a 42 kt gust was measured just southeast of Shreveport. Radar trends have generally been steady or increasing in terms of intensity with this bowing segment over northwest LA as well as with the two segments further to the southwest across east-central TX. Damaging winds will continue to be a concern with this activity. Furthermore, low level shear continues to be supportive of rotation and tornadoes could still occur with any mesovortex that develops along the apex of the bows. Depending on trends over the next hour or so, portions of WW 189 may need to be extended in time as current track estimate does not move convection east of the watch until after 07z. Additionally, showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to increase to the south of these bowing segments across Tornado Watch 190 in southeasterly low level confluent flow. This more discrete convection could pose a greater tornado threat as cells track toward the Sabine River overnight if they become better organized/more intense given little inhibition, a very moist boundary layer, and favorable 0-1 km shear. ..Leitman.. 05/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 31419570 32299431 32659336 32909248 32829207 32449190 31969192 31319251 30409373 30329474 30439547 30679582 30989608 31359583 31419570 Read more View the full article
  21. No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun May 19 03:00:07 UTC 2019. View the full article
  22. Today in Weather History for May 18 May 18, 1825 A tornado (said to have crossed all of the state of Ohio) smashed into the log cabin settlement of Burlington, northeast of Columbus. (David Ludlum) May 18, 1960 Salt Lake City UT received an inch of snow. It marked their latest measurable snowfall of record. (The Weather Channel) May 18, 1980 Mount Saint Helens (in Washington State) erupted spewing ash and smoke sixty-three thousand feet into the air. Heavy ash covered the ground to the immediate northwest, and small particles were carried to the Atlantic coast. (David Ludlum) May 18, 1987 Thunderstorms in Kansas, developing along a cold front, spawned tornadoes at Emporia and Toledo, produced wind gusts to 65 mph at Fort Scott, and produced golf ball size hail in the Kansas City area. Unseasonably hot weather prevailed ahead of the cold front. Pomona NJ reported a record high of 93 degrees, and Altus, OK, hit 100 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) May 18, 1988 Low pressure anchored over eastern Virginia kept showers and thunderstorms over the Middle Atlantic Coast Region. Flash flooding was reported in Pennsylvania. Up to five inches of rain drenched Franklin County PA in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) May 18, 1989 Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from the Central Gulf Coast States to the Lower Missouri Valley during the day and evening. Thunderstorms spawned sixteen tornadoes, and there were 74 reports of large hail and damaging winds. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) May 18, 1990 Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the central U.S. spawning a sixteen tornadoes, including a dozen in Nebraska. Thunderstorms also produced hail four inches in diameter at Perryton TX, wind gusts to 84 mph at Ellis KS, and high winds which caused nearly two million dollars damage at Sutherland NE. Thunderstorms deluged Sioux City IA with up to eight inches of rain, resulting in a record flood crest on Perry Creek and at least 4.5 million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Data courtesy of WeatherForYou View the full article
  23. Got tickets tonight to ride the Cog Railway to the top of Mt. Washington on Monday the 10th. 🙂 https://www.thecog.com/
  24. MD 0681 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 188... FOR SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI Mesoscale Discussion 0681 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0900 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019 Areas affected...Southwest Tennessee...northwest Mississippi Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 188... Valid 190200Z - 190300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 188 continues. SUMMARY...Storms have shown a decrease in intensity/organization over the past hour or so. Increasing stability in the downstream environment and lessened influence of the mid-level wave will continue this downward trend. DISCUSSION...KNQA radar imagery continues to show decreasing storm organization as outflow continues to outpace the convective line across southwest Tennessee and northwest Mississippi. Furthermore, these storms will continue to move eastward into increasingly stable environment and farther removed from the upper-level support in northern Missouri/southern Iowa. Expectation is that this downward trend in intensity will continue. WW 188 will likely be canceled before 05Z. ..Wendt.. 05/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG... LAT...LON 34549067 34819064 35309043 35649006 35708968 35298919 34598933 34199008 34179054 34549067 Read more View the full article
  25. MD 0680 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KS Mesoscale Discussion 0680 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0816 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019 Areas affected...portions of eastern KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 190116Z - 190245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Uncertainty still remains in eastward extent of severe potential into eastern KS this evening. If current intensity of central KS storms continues, a new severe thunderstorm watch may be needed downstream of WW 186. DISCUSSION...Modest recovery of the boundary layer continues across eastern KS this evening. A line of strong to severe storms extended from near a surface low over Woods County OK north-northwest along a surface trough to McPherson and Saline Counties in KS. This is also roughly a max in MLCAPE and in an area of strong ascent ahead of a midlevel trough ejecting across the region. The downstream airmass is only weakly unstable and while modest recovery from early storms has occurred, the impacts of the resultant cold pool remain. Nevertheless, an intense bow moving into Saline and McPherson Counties in central KS continues to produce wind gust reports from 50-70 mph. While the boundary layer thermodynamics are less than impressive, deep layer shear remains strong and a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will persist across the area overnight. Latest CAMs suggest convection will continue to propagate eastward and most of this should remain elevated, potentially posing a marginal hail concern. However, some forecast soundings suggest some potential for damaging gusts could continue south of I-70 in the vicinity of the surface trough/weak warm front extended west to east across eastern KS. If current trends and intensity persists, a new severe thunderstorm watch may be needed downstream of WW 186. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 38039790 38489812 38879804 39149747 39219658 39089573 38749540 38359540 37939547 37399576 36989620 36969659 36969717 37129746 37269754 38039790 Read more View the full article
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