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NorthGeorgiaWX

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  1. SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms producing hail are possible across the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Southern High Plains... A large-scale upper trough will extend from the Canadian Rockies to northern Mexico on Saturday. Within the broader region of upper troughing, a closed low over AZ will weaken as the southern branch of the trough shifts east across the Four Corners and into the central/southern High Plains. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the southern Plains, and vertical shear will be favorable for organized convection. Low-level moisture will remain modest, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s ahead of an eastward-advancing Pacific front from far eastern NM into western TX. This will limit stronger destabilization, especially given a lack of heating due to ongoing showers/thunderstorms Saturday morning an persistent cloudiness. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing midlevel moisture will support around 500-750 MLCAPE by late afternoon into the evening hours. Increasing large-scale ascent will foster thunderstorm development along the surface trough/cool front by late afternoon/early evening. Modest instability and favorable vertical shear may be sufficient for a few thunderstorm cores to become deep enough, and sustained for a sufficient amount of time, to support marginally severe hail from late afternoon through the evening. ..Leitman.. 12/22/2023 Read more View the full article
  2. Flood Warning issued December 21 at 8:23PM EST until December 23 at 4:00PM EST by NWSView the full article
  3. SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible tonight across parts of southern California and Arizona, and also from north Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A deep-layer cyclone off of the southern CA/Baja coasts is forecast to move eastward tonight. Most thunderstorm activity will likely remain offshore tonight in closer proximity to the low, but some threat for isolated thunderstorms will continue across near coastal areas of southern CA, and potentially expand into southeast CA/southern AZ overnight. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out near the coastline, but weak instability should limit the severe-thunderstorm threat. Convection may increase later tonight across parts of northern OK and southern KS, in association with a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough moving across the central Plains. While instability will remain weak, sporadic lightning flashes will be possible with the strongest convection. ..Dean.. 12/22/2023 Read more View the full article
  4. Flood Warning issued December 21 at 8:00PM EST until further notice by NWSView the full article
  5. SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Highly amplified mid-level flow is expected over the lower 48 through the extended forecast period. An upper trough over the Desert Southwest is forecast to merge with a second western US shortwave trough over the southern Rockies early this weekend. Emerging into a broad and deep upper low over the central CONUS, cool and unsettled weather is expected through early next week. At the surface, a cold front, and prolonged period of northwesterly surface flow, is expected over the southern and central high Plains. Periods of gusty surface winds and RH below 30% may develop through midweek over parts of western TX, KS and OK. However, widespread precipitation may limit available fuels. Beyond midweek next week, the upper low will shift eastward bringing widespread precipitation and mild temperatures to the eastern half of the US. Simultaneously, a second Pacific trough will move onshore over the West Coast. With Pacific moisture flooding inland, additional widespread precipitation appears likely through the end of the forecast period. Thus, critical fire-weather concerns appear unlikely, with the exception of a locally dry and breezy conditions over the southern and central High Plains early next week. ..Lyons.. 12/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article
  6. SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Highly amplified mid-level flow is expected over the lower 48 through the extended forecast period. An upper trough over the Desert Southwest is forecast to merge with a second western US shortwave trough over the southern Rockies early this weekend. Emerging into a broad and deep upper low over the central CONUS, cool and unsettled weather is expected through early next week. At the surface, a cold front, and prolonged period of northwesterly surface flow, is expected over the southern and central high Plains. Periods of gusty surface winds and RH below 30% may develop through midweek over parts of western TX, KS and OK. However, widespread precipitation may limit available fuels. Beyond midweek next week, the upper low will shift eastward bringing widespread precipitation and mild temperatures to the eastern half of the US. Simultaneously, a second Pacific trough will move onshore over the West Coast. With Pacific moisture flooding inland, additional widespread precipitation appears likely through the end of the forecast period. Thus, critical fire-weather concerns appear unlikely, with the exception of a locally dry and breezy conditions over the southern and central High Plains early next week. ..Lyons.. 12/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article
  7. SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Highly amplified mid-level flow is expected over the lower 48 through the extended forecast period. An upper trough over the Desert Southwest is forecast to merge with a second western US shortwave trough over the southern Rockies early this weekend. Emerging into a broad and deep upper low over the central CONUS, cool and unsettled weather is expected through early next week. At the surface, a cold front, and prolonged period of northwesterly surface flow, is expected over the southern and central high Plains. Periods of gusty surface winds and RH below 30% may develop through midweek over parts of western TX, KS and OK. However, widespread precipitation may limit available fuels. Beyond midweek next week, the upper low will shift eastward bringing widespread precipitation and mild temperatures to the eastern half of the US. Simultaneously, a second Pacific trough will move onshore over the West Coast. With Pacific moisture flooding inland, additional widespread precipitation appears likely through the end of the forecast period. Thus, critical fire-weather concerns appear unlikely, with the exception of a locally dry and breezy conditions over the southern and central High Plains early next week. ..Lyons.. 12/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article
  8. SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today across parts of southern California, southern Arizona and from north Texas into southeast Kansas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area across southern CA based on recent observational and short-term guidance trends. Severe thunderstorms continue to appear unlikely along the southern CA Coast owing to a dearth of boundary-layer instability. ..Gleason.. 12/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023/ ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across most of the U.S. today, away from a developing closed low over the Canadian Maritimes, and a second low that will remain just off the southern California/Baja coast through the period. Surface high pressure -- and associated cool/stable low-level conditions -- will again encompass much of the country, limiting convective potential over a majority of the CONUS. Two exceptions -- where isolated thunderstorms may occur -- include southern portions of California and Arizona, ahead of the aforementioned offshore upper low, and into portions of the Kansas/Oklahoma/North Texas area, ahead of mid-level short-wave troughing advancing eastward across this area through otherwise weak/westerly flow. In both areas, severe weather is not expected. Read more View the full article
  9. SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today across parts of southern California, southern Arizona and from north Texas into southeast Kansas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area across southern CA based on recent observational and short-term guidance trends. Severe thunderstorms continue to appear unlikely along the southern CA Coast owing to a dearth of boundary-layer instability. ..Gleason.. 12/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023/ ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across most of the U.S. today, away from a developing closed low over the Canadian Maritimes, and a second low that will remain just off the southern California/Baja coast through the period. Surface high pressure -- and associated cool/stable low-level conditions -- will again encompass much of the country, limiting convective potential over a majority of the CONUS. Two exceptions -- where isolated thunderstorms may occur -- include southern portions of California and Arizona, ahead of the aforementioned offshore upper low, and into portions of the Kansas/Oklahoma/North Texas area, ahead of mid-level short-wave troughing advancing eastward across this area through otherwise weak/westerly flow. In both areas, severe weather is not expected. Read more View the full article
  10. SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today across parts of southern California, southern Arizona and from north Texas into southeast Kansas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area across southern CA based on recent observational and short-term guidance trends. Severe thunderstorms continue to appear unlikely along the southern CA Coast owing to a dearth of boundary-layer instability. ..Gleason.. 12/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023/ ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across most of the U.S. today, away from a developing closed low over the Canadian Maritimes, and a second low that will remain just off the southern California/Baja coast through the period. Surface high pressure -- and associated cool/stable low-level conditions -- will again encompass much of the country, limiting convective potential over a majority of the CONUS. Two exceptions -- where isolated thunderstorms may occur -- include southern portions of California and Arizona, ahead of the aforementioned offshore upper low, and into portions of the Kansas/Oklahoma/North Texas area, ahead of mid-level short-wave troughing advancing eastward across this area through otherwise weak/westerly flow. In both areas, severe weather is not expected. Read more View the full article
  11. SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely over the CONUS Friday. ..Lyons.. 12/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023/ ...Synopsis... Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the Intermountain West, encouraging the continuance of surface lee-troughing and chances for rain over the Mississippi Valley as well as parts of the Southwest. Over the rest of the CONUS, weak surface winds or cool temperatures will mitigate significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article
  12. SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely over the CONUS Friday. ..Lyons.. 12/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023/ ...Synopsis... Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the Intermountain West, encouraging the continuance of surface lee-troughing and chances for rain over the Mississippi Valley as well as parts of the Southwest. Over the rest of the CONUS, weak surface winds or cool temperatures will mitigate significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article
  13. SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely over the CONUS Friday. ..Lyons.. 12/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023/ ...Synopsis... Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the Intermountain West, encouraging the continuance of surface lee-troughing and chances for rain over the Mississippi Valley as well as parts of the Southwest. Over the rest of the CONUS, weak surface winds or cool temperatures will mitigate significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article
  14. Special Weather Statement issued December 21 at 1:45PM EST by NWSView the full article
  15. SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible Friday from southern California across much of the Southwest. Some hail and strong/gusty winds may occur over parts of southern Arizona and far southwest New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southwest... A closed upper low initially centered off the coast of southern CA will move eastward Friday across the northern Baja Peninsula and lower CO River Valley. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature and associated mid-level moisture will support showers and thunderstorms from southern CA into much of the Southwest through the period. Widespread cloudiness and limited low-level moisture should hinder the development of much instability. But modest daytime heating and cooling mid-level temperatures as the upper trough/low advances eastward may aid weak buoyancy across parts of southern AZ and vicinity by Friday afternoon. Assuming this weak instability can develop, strengthening mid-level southwesterly flow ahead of the upper trough/low will support deep-layer shear increasing to 35-50 kt by late Friday afternoon and early evening. Some guidance shows the potential for a supercell or two to track northeastward from northern Mexico across parts of southern AZ and perhaps into far southwest NM. If this occurs, then isolated hail will be possible given cold mid-level temperatures and favorable effective bulk shear. The potential for occasional strong/gusty winds may also exist where the boundary layer can become well mixed as low-level lapse rates steepen and modest diurnal heating occurs. Overall confidence in severe potential across parts of the Southwest Friday remains low, as instability is expected to remain rather weak. ..Gleason.. 12/21/2023 Read more View the full article
  16. SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible Friday from southern California across much of the Southwest. Some hail and strong/gusty winds may occur over parts of southern Arizona and far southwest New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southwest... A closed upper low initially centered off the coast of southern CA will move eastward Friday across the northern Baja Peninsula and lower CO River Valley. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature and associated mid-level moisture will support showers and thunderstorms from southern CA into much of the Southwest through the period. Widespread cloudiness and limited low-level moisture should hinder the development of much instability. But modest daytime heating and cooling mid-level temperatures as the upper trough/low advances eastward may aid weak buoyancy across parts of southern AZ and vicinity by Friday afternoon. Assuming this weak instability can develop, strengthening mid-level southwesterly flow ahead of the upper trough/low will support deep-layer shear increasing to 35-50 kt by late Friday afternoon and early evening. Some guidance shows the potential for a supercell or two to track northeastward from northern Mexico across parts of southern AZ and perhaps into far southwest NM. If this occurs, then isolated hail will be possible given cold mid-level temperatures and favorable effective bulk shear. The potential for occasional strong/gusty winds may also exist where the boundary layer can become well mixed as low-level lapse rates steepen and modest diurnal heating occurs. Overall confidence in severe potential across parts of the Southwest Friday remains low, as instability is expected to remain rather weak. ..Gleason.. 12/21/2023 Read more View the full article
  17. SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible Friday from southern California across much of the Southwest. Some hail and strong/gusty winds may occur over parts of southern Arizona and far southwest New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southwest... A closed upper low initially centered off the coast of southern CA will move eastward Friday across the northern Baja Peninsula and lower CO River Valley. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature and associated mid-level moisture will support showers and thunderstorms from southern CA into much of the Southwest through the period. Widespread cloudiness and limited low-level moisture should hinder the development of much instability. But modest daytime heating and cooling mid-level temperatures as the upper trough/low advances eastward may aid weak buoyancy across parts of southern AZ and vicinity by Friday afternoon. Assuming this weak instability can develop, strengthening mid-level southwesterly flow ahead of the upper trough/low will support deep-layer shear increasing to 35-50 kt by late Friday afternoon and early evening. Some guidance shows the potential for a supercell or two to track northeastward from northern Mexico across parts of southern AZ and perhaps into far southwest NM. If this occurs, then isolated hail will be possible given cold mid-level temperatures and favorable effective bulk shear. The potential for occasional strong/gusty winds may also exist where the boundary layer can become well mixed as low-level lapse rates steepen and modest diurnal heating occurs. Overall confidence in severe potential across parts of the Southwest Friday remains low, as instability is expected to remain rather weak. ..Gleason.. 12/21/2023 Read more View the full article
  18. SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible Friday from southern California across much of the Southwest. Some hail and strong/gusty winds may occur over parts of southern Arizona and far southwest New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southwest... A closed upper low initially centered off the coast of southern CA will move eastward Friday across the northern Baja Peninsula and lower CO River Valley. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature and associated mid-level moisture will support showers and thunderstorms from southern CA into much of the Southwest through the period. Widespread cloudiness and limited low-level moisture should hinder the development of much instability. But modest daytime heating and cooling mid-level temperatures as the upper trough/low advances eastward may aid weak buoyancy across parts of southern AZ and vicinity by Friday afternoon. Assuming this weak instability can develop, strengthening mid-level southwesterly flow ahead of the upper trough/low will support deep-layer shear increasing to 35-50 kt by late Friday afternoon and early evening. Some guidance shows the potential for a supercell or two to track northeastward from northern Mexico across parts of southern AZ and perhaps into far southwest NM. If this occurs, then isolated hail will be possible given cold mid-level temperatures and favorable effective bulk shear. The potential for occasional strong/gusty winds may also exist where the boundary layer can become well mixed as low-level lapse rates steepen and modest diurnal heating occurs. Overall confidence in severe potential across parts of the Southwest Friday remains low, as instability is expected to remain rather weak. ..Gleason.. 12/21/2023 Read more View the full article
  19. Special Weather Statement issued December 21 at 12:06PM EST by NWSView the full article
  20. SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Increasing precipitation chances, combined with modest winds and mild temperatures will keep fire-weather concerns minimal. ..Lyons.. 12/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023/ ...Synopsis... Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the western and central U.S. today, promoting appreciable precipitation accumulations over California and the Southern Plains. Meanwhile, dry air will linger over the Tennessee Valley into the Southeast. However, surface winds are expected to be weak, limiting significant wildfire-spread potential. Fire-weather conditions should also remain quiescent over the rest of the CONUS as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article
  21. SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Increasing precipitation chances, combined with modest winds and mild temperatures will keep fire-weather concerns minimal. ..Lyons.. 12/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023/ ...Synopsis... Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the western and central U.S. today, promoting appreciable precipitation accumulations over California and the Southern Plains. Meanwhile, dry air will linger over the Tennessee Valley into the Southeast. However, surface winds are expected to be weak, limiting significant wildfire-spread potential. Fire-weather conditions should also remain quiescent over the rest of the CONUS as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article
  22. SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Increasing precipitation chances, combined with modest winds and mild temperatures will keep fire-weather concerns minimal. ..Lyons.. 12/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023/ ...Synopsis... Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the western and central U.S. today, promoting appreciable precipitation accumulations over California and the Southern Plains. Meanwhile, dry air will linger over the Tennessee Valley into the Southeast. However, surface winds are expected to be weak, limiting significant wildfire-spread potential. Fire-weather conditions should also remain quiescent over the rest of the CONUS as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article
  23. SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today across parts of southern California, southern Arizona and from north Texas into southeast Kansas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across most of the U.S. today, away from a developing closed low over the Canadian Maritimes, and a second low that will remain just off the southern California/Baja coast through the period. Surface high pressure -- and associated cool/stable low-level conditions -- will again encompass much of the country, limiting convective potential over a majority of the CONUS. Two exceptions -- where isolated thunderstorms may occur -- include southern portions of California and Arizona, ahead of the aforementioned offshore upper low, and into portions of the Kansas/Oklahoma/North Texas area, ahead of mid-level short-wave troughing advancing eastward across this area through otherwise weak/westerly flow. In both areas, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/21/2023 Read more View the full article
  24. SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today across parts of southern California, southern Arizona and from north Texas into southeast Kansas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across most of the U.S. today, away from a developing closed low over the Canadian Maritimes, and a second low that will remain just off the southern California/Baja coast through the period. Surface high pressure -- and associated cool/stable low-level conditions -- will again encompass much of the country, limiting convective potential over a majority of the CONUS. Two exceptions -- where isolated thunderstorms may occur -- include southern portions of California and Arizona, ahead of the aforementioned offshore upper low, and into portions of the Kansas/Oklahoma/North Texas area, ahead of mid-level short-wave troughing advancing eastward across this area through otherwise weak/westerly flow. In both areas, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/21/2023 Read more View the full article
  25. SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today across parts of southern California, southern Arizona and from north Texas into southeast Kansas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across most of the U.S. today, away from a developing closed low over the Canadian Maritimes, and a second low that will remain just off the southern California/Baja coast through the period. Surface high pressure -- and associated cool/stable low-level conditions -- will again encompass much of the country, limiting convective potential over a majority of the CONUS. Two exceptions -- where isolated thunderstorms may occur -- include southern portions of California and Arizona, ahead of the aforementioned offshore upper low, and into portions of the Kansas/Oklahoma/North Texas area, ahead of mid-level short-wave troughing advancing eastward across this area through otherwise weak/westerly flow. In both areas, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/21/2023 Read more View the full article
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