NorthGeorgiaWX

Freeze Warning issued January 02 at 9:28AM EST until January 03 at 9:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas during the day toward the Texas Coast and Sabine Valley through Wednesday morning. A few lightning flashes will also be possible along the coast of northern California. ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough initially over NM and northern Mexico will move east across TX during the period. Upstream of the TX disturbance, a potent mid-level trough over the eastern Pacific will move eastward reaching the Sierra Nevada by early Wednesday morning. In the low levels, surface high pressure centered over the Mid South will move little during the period as weak surface reflection occurs near the TX coast in response to the approaching mid-level wave. A still modifying airmass over the western Gulf of Mexico will likely penetrate the immediate middle and lower coasts of TX with scant instability farther northwest over central TX. Models indicate elevated instability (MUCAPE 100-500 J/kg) north of a developing cold front that is forecast to push east of the coast during the evening. A corridor of developing showers and a few thunderstorms will shift east from central TX through the TX coast and the southern half of LA tonight, and severe thunderstorm activity is not forecast. ..Smith.. 01/02/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas during the day toward the Texas Coast and Sabine Valley through Wednesday morning. A few lightning flashes will also be possible along the coast of northern California. ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough initially over NM and northern Mexico will move east across TX during the period. Upstream of the TX disturbance, a potent mid-level trough over the eastern Pacific will move eastward reaching the Sierra Nevada by early Wednesday morning. In the low levels, surface high pressure centered over the Mid South will move little during the period as weak surface reflection occurs near the TX coast in response to the approaching mid-level wave. A still modifying airmass over the western Gulf of Mexico will likely penetrate the immediate middle and lower coasts of TX with scant instability farther northwest over central TX. Models indicate elevated instability (MUCAPE 100-500 J/kg) north of a developing cold front that is forecast to push east of the coast during the evening. A corridor of developing showers and a few thunderstorms will shift east from central TX through the TX coast and the southern half of LA tonight, and severe thunderstorm activity is not forecast. ..Smith.. 01/02/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas during the day toward the Texas Coast and Sabine Valley through Wednesday morning. A few lightning flashes will also be possible along the coast of northern California. ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough initially over NM and northern Mexico will move east across TX during the period. Upstream of the TX disturbance, a potent mid-level trough over the eastern Pacific will move eastward reaching the Sierra Nevada by early Wednesday morning. In the low levels, surface high pressure centered over the Mid South will move little during the period as weak surface reflection occurs near the TX coast in response to the approaching mid-level wave. A still modifying airmass over the western Gulf of Mexico will likely penetrate the immediate middle and lower coasts of TX with scant instability farther northwest over central TX. Models indicate elevated instability (MUCAPE 100-500 J/kg) north of a developing cold front that is forecast to push east of the coast during the evening. A corridor of developing showers and a few thunderstorms will shift east from central TX through the TX coast and the southern half of LA tonight, and severe thunderstorm activity is not forecast. ..Smith.. 01/02/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas during the day toward the Texas Coast and Sabine Valley through Wednesday morning. A few lightning flashes will also be possible along the coast of northern California. ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough initially over NM and northern Mexico will move east across TX during the period. Upstream of the TX disturbance, a potent mid-level trough over the eastern Pacific will move eastward reaching the Sierra Nevada by early Wednesday morning. In the low levels, surface high pressure centered over the Mid South will move little during the period as weak surface reflection occurs near the TX coast in response to the approaching mid-level wave. A still modifying airmass over the western Gulf of Mexico will likely penetrate the immediate middle and lower coasts of TX with scant instability farther northwest over central TX. Models indicate elevated instability (MUCAPE 100-500 J/kg) north of a developing cold front that is forecast to push east of the coast during the evening. A corridor of developing showers and a few thunderstorms will shift east from central TX through the TX coast and the southern half of LA tonight, and severe thunderstorm activity is not forecast. ..Smith.. 01/02/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas during the day toward the Texas Coast and Sabine Valley through Wednesday morning. A few lightning flashes will also be possible along the coast of northern California. ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level trough initially over NM and northern Mexico will move east across TX during the period. Upstream of the TX disturbance, a potent mid-level trough over the eastern Pacific will move eastward reaching the Sierra Nevada by early Wednesday morning. In the low levels, surface high pressure centered over the Mid South will move little during the period as weak surface reflection occurs near the TX coast in response to the approaching mid-level wave. A still modifying airmass over the western Gulf of Mexico will likely penetrate the immediate middle and lower coasts of TX with scant instability farther northwest over central TX. Models indicate elevated instability (MUCAPE 100-500 J/kg) north of a developing cold front that is forecast to push east of the coast during the evening. A corridor of developing showers and a few thunderstorms will shift east from central TX through the TX coast and the southern half of LA tonight, and severe thunderstorm activity is not forecast. ..Smith.. 01/02/2024 Read more View the full article

Freeze Watch issued January 02 at 5:53AM EST until January 03 at 8:00AM EST by NWSView the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough over the central CONUS, with multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs over the southern Plains, is forecast to move eastward across the Southeast and TN/OH Valleys on Day 4/Friday. Similar to prior systems, low-level mass response should encourage the northward advance of low-level moisture across the northern Gulf of Mexico and immediate coastal areas of TX/LA/MS/AL. While both low-level and deep-layer shear appear strong with this system, current expectations are that appreciable surface-based instability should struggle to reach very far inland. This will probably tend to limit the spatial extent of any severe risk over land Friday afternoon through Friday night from parts of coastal TX to the central Gulf Coast states. Still, a marginal/isolated severe risk may exist across these areas, and low severe probabilities may need to be included in a future outlook. Some severe threat may persist into Day 5/Saturday across parts of the Southeast as the upper trough and related surface low/cold front continue quickly east-northeastward. But, uncertainty regarding sufficient instability given poor lapse rates and modest low-level moisture precludes introduction of a severe area at this time. In the wake of this system, minimal severe potential is evident across the CONUS for Day 6/Sunday. Medium-range deterministic and ensemble guidance show remarkably good agreement that another upper trough will both strengthen and amplify as it ejects across the southern Plains and Southeast early next week. Impressive wind fields at low/mid levels should easily support severe thunderstorms wherever sufficient low-level moisture can advance inland of a deepening surface low. There is still some uncertainty with both how quickly rich low-level moisture will be able to return northward from the Gulf of Mexico into parts of TX and the lower MS Valley, and how far north it will reach. Regardless, it appears probable that enough boundary-layer instability will be present/develop on Day 7/Monday and Monday night over parts of coastal/east TX into LA, southern MS/AL, and the western FL Panhandle to justify introducing a 15% severe area. Adjustments to this area will likely be needed in the coming days as confidence increases in the northward extent of appreciable low-level moisture. But, given the very strong forecast shear, supercells and line segments capable of producing both tornadoes and damaging winds appear possible. This severe threat may continue farther east into Day 8/Tuesday from parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas, but too much uncertainty regarding destabilization currently exists to include a severe delineation across this region. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough over the central CONUS, with multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs over the southern Plains, is forecast to move eastward across the Southeast and TN/OH Valleys on Day 4/Friday. Similar to prior systems, low-level mass response should encourage the northward advance of low-level moisture across the northern Gulf of Mexico and immediate coastal areas of TX/LA/MS/AL. While both low-level and deep-layer shear appear strong with this system, current expectations are that appreciable surface-based instability should struggle to reach very far inland. This will probably tend to limit the spatial extent of any severe risk over land Friday afternoon through Friday night from parts of coastal TX to the central Gulf Coast states. Still, a marginal/isolated severe risk may exist across these areas, and low severe probabilities may need to be included in a future outlook. Some severe threat may persist into Day 5/Saturday across parts of the Southeast as the upper trough and related surface low/cold front continue quickly east-northeastward. But, uncertainty regarding sufficient instability given poor lapse rates and modest low-level moisture precludes introduction of a severe area at this time. In the wake of this system, minimal severe potential is evident across the CONUS for Day 6/Sunday. Medium-range deterministic and ensemble guidance show remarkably good agreement that another upper trough will both strengthen and amplify as it ejects across the southern Plains and Southeast early next week. Impressive wind fields at low/mid levels should easily support severe thunderstorms wherever sufficient low-level moisture can advance inland of a deepening surface low. There is still some uncertainty with both how quickly rich low-level moisture will be able to return northward from the Gulf of Mexico into parts of TX and the lower MS Valley, and how far north it will reach. Regardless, it appears probable that enough boundary-layer instability will be present/develop on Day 7/Monday and Monday night over parts of coastal/east TX into LA, southern MS/AL, and the western FL Panhandle to justify introducing a 15% severe area. Adjustments to this area will likely be needed in the coming days as confidence increases in the northward extent of appreciable low-level moisture. But, given the very strong forecast shear, supercells and line segments capable of producing both tornadoes and damaging winds appear possible. This severe threat may continue farther east into Day 8/Tuesday from parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas, but too much uncertainty regarding destabilization currently exists to include a severe delineation across this region. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough over the central CONUS, with multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs over the southern Plains, is forecast to move eastward across the Southeast and TN/OH Valleys on Day 4/Friday. Similar to prior systems, low-level mass response should encourage the northward advance of low-level moisture across the northern Gulf of Mexico and immediate coastal areas of TX/LA/MS/AL. While both low-level and deep-layer shear appear strong with this system, current expectations are that appreciable surface-based instability should struggle to reach very far inland. This will probably tend to limit the spatial extent of any severe risk over land Friday afternoon through Friday night from parts of coastal TX to the central Gulf Coast states. Still, a marginal/isolated severe risk may exist across these areas, and low severe probabilities may need to be included in a future outlook. Some severe threat may persist into Day 5/Saturday across parts of the Southeast as the upper trough and related surface low/cold front continue quickly east-northeastward. But, uncertainty regarding sufficient instability given poor lapse rates and modest low-level moisture precludes introduction of a severe area at this time. In the wake of this system, minimal severe potential is evident across the CONUS for Day 6/Sunday. Medium-range deterministic and ensemble guidance show remarkably good agreement that another upper trough will both strengthen and amplify as it ejects across the southern Plains and Southeast early next week. Impressive wind fields at low/mid levels should easily support severe thunderstorms wherever sufficient low-level moisture can advance inland of a deepening surface low. There is still some uncertainty with both how quickly rich low-level moisture will be able to return northward from the Gulf of Mexico into parts of TX and the lower MS Valley, and how far north it will reach. Regardless, it appears probable that enough boundary-layer instability will be present/develop on Day 7/Monday and Monday night over parts of coastal/east TX into LA, southern MS/AL, and the western FL Panhandle to justify introducing a 15% severe area. Adjustments to this area will likely be needed in the coming days as confidence increases in the northward extent of appreciable low-level moisture. But, given the very strong forecast shear, supercells and line segments capable of producing both tornadoes and damaging winds appear possible. This severe threat may continue farther east into Day 8/Tuesday from parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas, but too much uncertainty regarding destabilization currently exists to include a severe delineation across this region. Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough over the central CONUS, with multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs over the southern Plains, is forecast to move eastward across the Southeast and TN/OH Valleys on Day 4/Friday. Similar to prior systems, low-level mass response should encourage the northward advance of low-level moisture across the northern Gulf of Mexico and immediate coastal areas of TX/LA/MS/AL. While both low-level and deep-layer shear appear strong with this system, current expectations are that appreciable surface-based instability should struggle to reach very far inland. This will probably tend to limit the spatial extent of any severe risk over land Friday afternoon through Friday night from parts of coastal TX to the central Gulf Coast states. Still, a marginal/isolated severe risk may exist across these areas, and low severe probabilities may need to be included in a future outlook. Some severe threat may persist into Day 5/Saturday across parts of the Southeast as the upper trough and related surface low/cold front continue quickly east-northeastward. But, uncertainty regarding sufficient instability given poor lapse rates and modest low-level moisture precludes introduction of a severe area at this time. In the wake of this system, minimal severe potential is evident across the CONUS for Day 6/Sunday. Medium-range deterministic and ensemble guidance show remarkably good agreement that another upper trough will both strengthen and amplify as it ejects across the southern Plains and Southeast early next week. Impressive wind fields at low/mid levels should easily support severe thunderstorms wherever sufficient low-level moisture can advance inland of a deepening surface low. There is still some uncertainty with both how quickly rich low-level moisture will be able to return northward from the Gulf of Mexico into parts of TX and the lower MS Valley, and how far north it will reach. Regardless, it appears probable that enough boundary-layer instability will be present/develop on Day 7/Monday and Monday night over parts of coastal/east TX into LA, southern MS/AL, and the western FL Panhandle to justify introducing a 15% severe area. Adjustments to this area will likely be needed in the coming days as confidence increases in the northward extent of appreciable low-level moisture. But, given the very strong forecast shear, supercells and line segments capable of producing both tornadoes and damaging winds appear possible. This severe threat may continue farther east into Day 8/Tuesday from parts of FL/GA into the Carolinas, but too much uncertainty regarding destabilization currently exists to include a severe delineation across this region. Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Thursday across parts of the southern Plains and coastal Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front will move southward over the central/southern FL Peninsula on Thursday. But, with limited low-level convergence along this boundary, thunderstorm potential appears low over this area. In its wake, a large area of surface high pressure will dominate much of the central/eastern states through the period. A lack of appreciable low-level moisture should hinder thunderstorm develop for a large majority of the CONUS, with a couple of possible exceptions over the southern Plains and coastal TX. A pronounced upper trough/low with attendant strong large-scale ascent will eject over the southern Plains through the day. Even though surface temperatures will remain cool and low-level moisture quite limited, weak instability may still develop with modest daytime heating over parts of the southern High Plains. Isolated, low-topped thunderstorms may occur in this regime as mid-level temperatures rapidly cool with the approach of the upper trough. Other thunderstorms also appear possible late Thursday night into early Friday morning across a small portion of coastal TX as greater low-level moisture begins to return northward across this area. ..Gleason.. 01/02/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Thursday across parts of the southern Plains and coastal Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front will move southward over the central/southern FL Peninsula on Thursday. But, with limited low-level convergence along this boundary, thunderstorm potential appears low over this area. In its wake, a large area of surface high pressure will dominate much of the central/eastern states through the period. A lack of appreciable low-level moisture should hinder thunderstorm develop for a large majority of the CONUS, with a couple of possible exceptions over the southern Plains and coastal TX. A pronounced upper trough/low with attendant strong large-scale ascent will eject over the southern Plains through the day. Even though surface temperatures will remain cool and low-level moisture quite limited, weak instability may still develop with modest daytime heating over parts of the southern High Plains. Isolated, low-topped thunderstorms may occur in this regime as mid-level temperatures rapidly cool with the approach of the upper trough. Other thunderstorms also appear possible late Thursday night into early Friday morning across a small portion of coastal TX as greater low-level moisture begins to return northward across this area. ..Gleason.. 01/02/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Thursday across parts of the southern Plains and coastal Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front will move southward over the central/southern FL Peninsula on Thursday. But, with limited low-level convergence along this boundary, thunderstorm potential appears low over this area. In its wake, a large area of surface high pressure will dominate much of the central/eastern states through the period. A lack of appreciable low-level moisture should hinder thunderstorm develop for a large majority of the CONUS, with a couple of possible exceptions over the southern Plains and coastal TX. A pronounced upper trough/low with attendant strong large-scale ascent will eject over the southern Plains through the day. Even though surface temperatures will remain cool and low-level moisture quite limited, weak instability may still develop with modest daytime heating over parts of the southern High Plains. Isolated, low-topped thunderstorms may occur in this regime as mid-level temperatures rapidly cool with the approach of the upper trough. Other thunderstorms also appear possible late Thursday night into early Friday morning across a small portion of coastal TX as greater low-level moisture begins to return northward across this area. ..Gleason.. 01/02/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Thursday across parts of the southern Plains and coastal Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front will move southward over the central/southern FL Peninsula on Thursday. But, with limited low-level convergence along this boundary, thunderstorm potential appears low over this area. In its wake, a large area of surface high pressure will dominate much of the central/eastern states through the period. A lack of appreciable low-level moisture should hinder thunderstorm develop for a large majority of the CONUS, with a couple of possible exceptions over the southern Plains and coastal TX. A pronounced upper trough/low with attendant strong large-scale ascent will eject over the southern Plains through the day. Even though surface temperatures will remain cool and low-level moisture quite limited, weak instability may still develop with modest daytime heating over parts of the southern High Plains. Isolated, low-topped thunderstorms may occur in this regime as mid-level temperatures rapidly cool with the approach of the upper trough. Other thunderstorms also appear possible late Thursday night into early Friday morning across a small portion of coastal TX as greater low-level moisture begins to return northward across this area. ..Gleason.. 01/02/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will remain limited for Wednesday. Modest cyclogenesis is anticipated across the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next 24-48 hours as a mid-level wave (currently traversing the U.S./Mexico border as of early Tuesday morning) shifts east towards the Gulf. To the north, surface high pressure is forecast to build over the northern Plains. This surface regime will maintain northerly winds and cool temperatures across much of the central CONUS. Elsewhere, weak winds over the Midwest/Northeast and widespread precipitation chances across CA, UT, and the Pacific Northwest will limit fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will remain limited for Wednesday. Modest cyclogenesis is anticipated across the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next 24-48 hours as a mid-level wave (currently traversing the U.S./Mexico border as of early Tuesday morning) shifts east towards the Gulf. To the north, surface high pressure is forecast to build over the northern Plains. This surface regime will maintain northerly winds and cool temperatures across much of the central CONUS. Elsewhere, weak winds over the Midwest/Northeast and widespread precipitation chances across CA, UT, and the Pacific Northwest will limit fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for today. Cool conditions prevail in the wake of a recent cold frontal passage across the Plains and Southeast. Surface high pressure in place over the mid-MS River Valley will maintain generally light winds for today. The combination of cool conditions and weak winds over much of the country (as well as precipitation chances over the southern High Plains/TX where fuels have undergone some recent drying) will limit the potential for fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast and coastal California on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough with attendant 50-70 kt mid-level jet will move quickly eastward over the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday. An associated weak surface low is likewise forecast to develop eastward over the northern Gulf shelf waters, north FL, and western Atlantic through the period. Most global/regional guidance, with exception of the NAM, continues to indicate that rich low-level moisture will remain displaced offshore/south of the central Gulf Coast, and west of the FL Gulf Coast. While some chance for elevated thunderstorms may exist owing to weak MUCAPE inland, appreciable severe potential over land still appears low. Isolated convection also appears possible Wednesday morning and early afternoon across parts of coastal CA, as cold temperatures aloft and large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough move from the eastern Pacific over this area. Weak instability should keep overall lightning coverage rather sparse. ..Gleason.. 01/02/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast and coastal California on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough with attendant 50-70 kt mid-level jet will move quickly eastward over the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday. An associated weak surface low is likewise forecast to develop eastward over the northern Gulf shelf waters, north FL, and western Atlantic through the period. Most global/regional guidance, with exception of the NAM, continues to indicate that rich low-level moisture will remain displaced offshore/south of the central Gulf Coast, and west of the FL Gulf Coast. While some chance for elevated thunderstorms may exist owing to weak MUCAPE inland, appreciable severe potential over land still appears low. Isolated convection also appears possible Wednesday morning and early afternoon across parts of coastal CA, as cold temperatures aloft and large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough move from the eastern Pacific over this area. Weak instability should keep overall lightning coverage rather sparse. ..Gleason.. 01/02/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast and coastal California on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough with attendant 50-70 kt mid-level jet will move quickly eastward over the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday. An associated weak surface low is likewise forecast to develop eastward over the northern Gulf shelf waters, north FL, and western Atlantic through the period. Most global/regional guidance, with exception of the NAM, continues to indicate that rich low-level moisture will remain displaced offshore/south of the central Gulf Coast, and west of the FL Gulf Coast. While some chance for elevated thunderstorms may exist owing to weak MUCAPE inland, appreciable severe potential over land still appears low. Isolated convection also appears possible Wednesday morning and early afternoon across parts of coastal CA, as cold temperatures aloft and large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough move from the eastern Pacific over this area. Weak instability should keep overall lightning coverage rather sparse. ..Gleason.. 01/02/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas during the day toward the Texas Coast and Sabine Valley through Wednesday morning. A few lightning flashes will also be possible along the coast of northern California. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The primary feature of interest today will be a progressive shortwave trough which will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains through 00Z. This feature will be near the Sabine Valley shortly after 12Z Wednesday. At the surface, a sprawling surface ridge will extend from the central/northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Southeast, preventing any substantial moisture return ahead of the aforementioned shortwave trough. Given the cool air mass in place over land, little in the way of pressure falls are forecast, with only an "inverted trough" forecast along the TX Coast. Elsewhere, an upper trough amplify as it moves quickly onshore across northern CA. Strong cooling aloft as well as lift along a cold front may result in isolated low-topped convection late in the day. ...TX/LA... Scattered elevated convection is expected to develop over central TX after about 18Z, as cooling aloft occurs with the upper trough, and modest positive theta-e advection materializes during the late afternoon/evening. Elevated MUCAPE on the order of 250-500 J/kg is forecast over most of the area, with indications of SBCAPE over coastal counties of Deep South TX where 60s F dewpoints will exist on easterly flow. It appears that the bulk of the thunderstorm activity will remain north of the cold front, and any surface-based potential will be quite limited in time and space over far southern/coastal areas of TX. Given relatively poor low-level lapse rates forecast within that small moist sector, severe weather is not forecast. ..Jewell/Moore.. 01/02/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas during the day toward the Texas Coast and Sabine Valley through Wednesday morning. A few lightning flashes will also be possible along the coast of northern California. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The primary feature of interest today will be a progressive shortwave trough which will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains through 00Z. This feature will be near the Sabine Valley shortly after 12Z Wednesday. At the surface, a sprawling surface ridge will extend from the central/northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Southeast, preventing any substantial moisture return ahead of the aforementioned shortwave trough. Given the cool air mass in place over land, little in the way of pressure falls are forecast, with only an "inverted trough" forecast along the TX Coast. Elsewhere, an upper trough amplify as it moves quickly onshore across northern CA. Strong cooling aloft as well as lift along a cold front may result in isolated low-topped convection late in the day. ...TX/LA... Scattered elevated convection is expected to develop over central TX after about 18Z, as cooling aloft occurs with the upper trough, and modest positive theta-e advection materializes during the late afternoon/evening. Elevated MUCAPE on the order of 250-500 J/kg is forecast over most of the area, with indications of SBCAPE over coastal counties of Deep South TX where 60s F dewpoints will exist on easterly flow. It appears that the bulk of the thunderstorm activity will remain north of the cold front, and any surface-based potential will be quite limited in time and space over far southern/coastal areas of TX. Given relatively poor low-level lapse rates forecast within that small moist sector, severe weather is not forecast. ..Jewell/Moore.. 01/02/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas during the day toward the Texas Coast and Sabine Valley through Wednesday morning. A few lightning flashes will also be possible along the coast of northern California. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The primary feature of interest today will be a progressive shortwave trough which will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains through 00Z. This feature will be near the Sabine Valley shortly after 12Z Wednesday. At the surface, a sprawling surface ridge will extend from the central/northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Southeast, preventing any substantial moisture return ahead of the aforementioned shortwave trough. Given the cool air mass in place over land, little in the way of pressure falls are forecast, with only an "inverted trough" forecast along the TX Coast. Elsewhere, an upper trough amplify as it moves quickly onshore across northern CA. Strong cooling aloft as well as lift along a cold front may result in isolated low-topped convection late in the day. ...TX/LA... Scattered elevated convection is expected to develop over central TX after about 18Z, as cooling aloft occurs with the upper trough, and modest positive theta-e advection materializes during the late afternoon/evening. Elevated MUCAPE on the order of 250-500 J/kg is forecast over most of the area, with indications of SBCAPE over coastal counties of Deep South TX where 60s F dewpoints will exist on easterly flow. It appears that the bulk of the thunderstorm activity will remain north of the cold front, and any surface-based potential will be quite limited in time and space over far southern/coastal areas of TX. Given relatively poor low-level lapse rates forecast within that small moist sector, severe weather is not forecast. ..Jewell/Moore.. 01/02/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0619 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few weak thunderstorms will be possible from southeast Arizona into southwest New Mexico overnight. ...Discussion... Lift associated with a shortwave trough may result in a few weak thunderstorms tonight from southeast AZ into southwest NM, as midlevel moistening occurs. Forecast soundings depict steep midlevel lapse rates, but generally weak winds below 500 mb as the area will be well north of the midlevel jet. The lift and increasing midlevel RH will counteract the loss of diurnal heating, possibly leading to scattered showers and isolated lightning flashes. ..Jewell.. 01/02/2024 Read more View the full article