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WW 118 TORNADO IA NE SD 161725Z - 170000Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 118 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western and Northern Iowa Northeast Nebraska Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...A tornado/hail risk will exist through the afternoon as far west as northeast Nebraska and southeast South Dakota near a surface low, with other severe storms expected to develop into additional parts of Iowa. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north of Norfolk NE to 35 miles east of Fort Dodge IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 116...WW 117... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 22035. ...Guyer Read more View the full article

WW 0117 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 117 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...LSX...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 117 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-011-015-017-057-067-071-073-085-095-109-123-125-131- 137-143-149-155-161-169-171-175-187-195-162140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN BUREAU CARROLL CASS FULTON HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS KNOX MCDONOUGH MARSHALL MASON MERCER MORGAN PEORIA PIKE PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND SCHUYLER SCOTT STARK WARREN WHITESIDE IAC011-019-031-037-043-045-055-057-061-065-067-087-095-097-101- 103-105-107-111-113-115-139-163-177-183-162140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BUCHANAN CEDAR CHICKASAW CLAYTON CLINTON DELAWARE DES MOINES DUBUQUE Read more View the full article

WW 0117 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 117 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...LSX...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 117 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-011-015-017-057-067-071-073-085-095-109-123-125-131- 137-143-149-155-161-169-171-175-187-195-162140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN BUREAU CARROLL CASS FULTON HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS KNOX MCDONOUGH MARSHALL MASON MERCER MORGAN PEORIA PIKE PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND SCHUYLER SCOTT STARK WARREN WHITESIDE IAC011-019-031-037-043-045-055-057-061-065-067-087-095-097-101- 103-105-107-111-113-115-139-163-177-183-162140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BUCHANAN CEDAR CHICKASAW CLAYTON CLINTON DELAWARE DES MOINES DUBUQUE Read more View the full article

WW 117 TORNADO IA IL MO WI 161705Z - 170100Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 117 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Iowa Western and Northwest Illinois Northeast Missouri Southwest Wisconsin * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Arcing bands and clusters of severe storms including supercells will steadily move northeastward across the region through the afternoon, with the potential for all hazards including tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north of Dubuque IA to 75 miles south southwest of Quincy IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 116... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Guyer Read more View the full article

WW 117 TORNADO IA IL MO WI 161705Z - 170100Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 117 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Iowa Western and Northwest Illinois Northeast Missouri Southwest Wisconsin * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Arcing bands and clusters of severe storms including supercells will steadily move northeastward across the region through the afternoon, with the potential for all hazards including tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north of Dubuque IA to 75 miles south southwest of Quincy IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 116... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Guyer Read more View the full article

WW 0116 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 116 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SZL TO 45 SW OTM TO 20 W DSM. ..LEITMAN..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 116 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC007-013-015-017-023-033-049-051-069-075-079-083-099-117-123- 125-127-135-153-157-169-171-179-181-197-162140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE BLACK HAWK BOONE BREMER BUTLER CERRO GORDO DALLAS DAVIS FRANKLIN GRUNDY HAMILTON HARDIN JASPER LUCAS MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL MONROE POLK POWESHIEK STORY TAMA WAPELLO WARREN WRIGHT MOC001-041-053-089-121-175-197-162140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHARITON COOPER HOWARD MACON RANDOLPH SCHUYLER Read more View the full article

WW 0116 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 116 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SZL TO 45 SW OTM TO 20 W DSM. ..LEITMAN..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 116 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC007-013-015-017-023-033-049-051-069-075-079-083-099-117-123- 125-127-135-153-157-169-171-179-181-197-162140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE BLACK HAWK BOONE BREMER BUTLER CERRO GORDO DALLAS DAVIS FRANKLIN GRUNDY HAMILTON HARDIN JASPER LUCAS MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL MONROE POLK POWESHIEK STORY TAMA WAPELLO WARREN WRIGHT MOC001-041-053-089-121-175-197-162140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHARITON COOPER HOWARD MACON RANDOLPH SCHUYLER Read more View the full article

WW 116 TORNADO IA MO 161520Z - 162300Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 116 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Iowa Western and Northern Missouri * Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1020 AM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Storms will likely continue to intensify and organize, including supercells, as they further develop and move northeastward across the region today, with steady destabilization into afternoon as heating occurs and cloud breaks occur. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Knoxville IA to 10 miles south southeast of Knob Noster MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Guyer Read more View the full article

WW 116 TORNADO IA MO 161520Z - 162300Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 116 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Iowa Western and Northern Missouri * Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1020 AM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Storms will likely continue to intensify and organize, including supercells, as they further develop and move northeastward across the region today, with steady destabilization into afternoon as heating occurs and cloud breaks occur. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Knoxville IA to 10 miles south southeast of Knob Noster MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Guyer Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today, especially across northern Missouri, Iowa, and northwestern Illinois. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are expected. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks and Mid-South. ...Synopsis... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor modifications made to reflect convective trends across portions of NE, KS, and western MO. Recent analyses show that the best kinematic environment resides from central AR into MO and southern/southeast IA. However, thermodynamic limitations (largely due to warm temperatures in the 850-700 mb as sampled by the 18 UTC DVN and 19 UTC ILX soundings and modest mid-level lapse rates) and unfavorable storm interactions have modulated convective intensity/organization thus far. Further intensification remains possible through the afternoon/early evening amid peak diurnal heating (see MCD 460 for additional near-term details). Across far eastern NE into western IA, cold temperatures aloft (supporting surface-based lifted indices between -7 to -9 C) combined with plentiful ambient low-level vorticity along surface boundaries continues to support a tornado threat. See MCD 461 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Midwest/Middle Mississippi Valley... Regenerative scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to occur across western/northern Missouri into much of Iowa at late morning, originating with a warm sector that narrows with north-northwestward extent into southern Iowa and far east/northeast Nebraska in vicinity of the surface low. Even while warm-sector cloud breaks have been limited, steady early-spring heating and low-level moistening is occurring with surface dewpoints rising through the lower 60s F. This development coincides with an intense/cyclonically curved 90+ kt polar jet and a low-level jet that will remain diurnally strong (40+ kt). Modest cloud breaks aside, destabilization will be further aided by a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough/low. Scenario supports a risk for supercells especially across northern Missouri into southern/eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in hail production, with a few golf ball or 2+ inch diameter stones possible with the more robust cores. Tornadoes will also be a concern, as the enhanced boundary-layer flow and enlarged/curved hodographs associated with the low-level jet will aid in updraft rotation. The main tornado potential is still expected to be focused along/near the warm front in southern/eastern Iowa where the stronger low-level shear is forecast. A strong (EF2+) tornado is possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds are otherwise expected regionally. Farther south toward the Ozarks and Mid-South, a potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms remains apparent into this evening, with a moist/confluent regime near/ahead of the eastward-advancing front. Mid-level lapse rates will remain limited. However, steady low-level moistening will tend to counteract a tendency for nocturnal boundary cooling, netting a scenario with limited warm-sector inhibition tonight, supporting the possibility of supercells capable of all severe hazards including a tornado risk, even if severe storms remain relatively isolated overall. Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND MUCH OF OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from southern Lower Michigan into parts of the Ohio Valley. A more isolated severe threat may materialize across parts of Tennessee Valley into the Southwest as well as parts of the east-central Plains and Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... The upper-level wave and attendant surface low currently over the central Plains/Midwest are forecast to weaken over the next 24-48 hours as they gradually lift to the northeast. A trailing surface cold front associated with the low is forecast to push east across the Great Lakes region through the day it becomes increasingly influenced by mean westerly flow. This boundary should be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development by late morning/early afternoon across IN/OH and lower MI. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated by peak heating across portions of the TN Valley as a residual outflow boundary migrates east. To the west across the Plains, a warm advection regime should become established by early evening as a surface low begins to deepen ahead of an approaching upper-level wave. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible within the warm advection regime across parts of the Ozarks into the east-central Plains. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... Broken cloud cover is anticipated Wednesday morning across the Midwest/Great Lakes as a mid-level dry slot overspreads the region in the wake of Tuesday night's convection. The north/northeast track of the decaying surface low should allow for low to mid 60s dewpoints to spread north into IN/OH and lower MI by late morning ahead of the approaching cold front. Thunderstorm development may occur by mid-morning across portions of IN, but the development and intensification of any convection will be dependent on the degree of subsidence within the dry slot. Diurnal heating of the low-level air mass should allow for 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE by early afternoon with decreasing inhibition. Consequently, more robust convection is likely by early afternoon across lower MI into western OH. Deep-layer flow off the front should favor initially discrete cells within a broken line of storms with an attendant hail and tornado risk. Steepening low-level lapse rates, combined with 40-50 knot mid-level flow, should support an increasing damaging wind threat by late afternoon. Upscale growth into one or more clusters is probable by late afternoon into the evening hours across eastern OH and far western PA given strong forcing along the front and similar storm and boundary motions. Further south into the OH River Valley, thunderstorm development is less certain given increasing displacement from the stronger forcing for ascent. However, a conditionally favorable environment for organized convection is forecast, which should support a more isolated severe threat. ...Tennessee Valley region... A residual outflow boundary from Tuesday night's convection is expected to push east through the morning hours, reaching the eastern TN Valley into northern AL/MS by peak heating. Thunderstorm development and/or re-intensification is possible - especially across AL/MS/GA where latest CAMs show reasonable agreement in redevelopment as SBCAPE increases to around 1500 J/kg. While low-level flow is forecast to be weak, 30-40 knot westerlies aloft, combined with steepening low-level lapse rates by late afternoon, should support a few stronger cells/clusters with an attendant hail/wind risk. ...Southwest Missouri to Northeast Kansas... An upper disturbance currently approaching northern MT is forecast to migrate southeast over the next 48 hours. Surface pressure falls over the Plains in response to the approach of this feature will strengthen southerly low/mid-level winds on the western periphery of a warm/moist air mass over the southern Plains/lower MS Valley - especially by early evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. Concurrently, a cold air mass will begin migrating south along the High Plains. Thunderstorms may develop within the warm advection regime on the northern fringe of the returning moisture during the 00-06 UTC period across parts of the Ozark Plateau. A second round is probable later overnight (during the 08-12 UTC period) as the cold front impinges on the returning moisture across northeast KS. For both regimes, sufficient deep-layer flow should be in place to support organized cells with a severe hail risk. ..Moore.. 04/16/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today, especially across northern Missouri, Iowa, and northwestern Illinois. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are expected. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks and Mid-South. ...Midwest/Middle Mississippi Valley... Regenerative scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to occur across western/northern Missouri into much of Iowa at late morning, originating with a warm sector that narrows with north-northwestward extent into southern Iowa and far east/northeast Nebraska in vicinity of the surface low. Even while warm-sector cloud breaks have been limited, steady early-spring heating and low-level moistening is occurring with surface dewpoints rising through the lower 60s F. This development coincides with an intense/cyclonically curved 90+ kt polar jet and a low-level jet that will remain diurnally strong (40+ kt). Modest cloud breaks aside, destabilization will be further aided by a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough/low. Scenario supports a risk for supercells especially across northern Missouri into southern/eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in hail production, with a few golf ball or 2+ inch diameter stones possible with the more robust cores. Tornadoes will also be a concern, as the enhanced boundary-layer flow and enlarged/curved hodographs associated with the low-level jet will aid in updraft rotation. The main tornado potential is still expected to be focused along/near the warm front in southern/eastern Iowa where the stronger low-level shear is forecast. A strong (EF2+) tornado is possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds are otherwise expected regionally. Farther south toward the Ozarks and Mid-South, a potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms remains apparent into this evening, with a moist/confluent regime near/ahead of the eastward-advancing front. Mid-level lapse rates will remain limited. However, steady low-level moistening will tend to counteract a tendency for nocturnal boundary cooling, netting a scenario with limited warm-sector inhibition tonight, supporting the possibility of supercells capable of all severe hazards including a tornado risk, even if severe storms remain relatively isolated overall. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 04/16/2024 Read more View the full article

Flood Warning issued April 16 at 10:48AM EDT until April 19 at 5:36PM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FLView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 16 at 10:47AM EDT until April 17 at 3:00PM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FLView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 16 at 10:20AM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FLView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 16 at 10:03AM EDT until April 19 at 6:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston SCView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 16 at 10:03AM EDT until April 18 at 11:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston SCView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 16 at 9:05AM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FLView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 16 at 9:05AM EDT until April 20 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FLView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 16 at 9:05AM EDT until April 18 at 5:01AM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FLView the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear likely today, centered mostly over northern Missouri, Iowa, and northwestern Illinois. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes should occur in this corridor. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks of northern Arkansas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough/low over the central Plains this morning will continue to eject east-northeastward across the mid MO Valley and Upper Midwest through tonight. A 70-90 kt mid-level jet will overspread parts of the Midwest through the day, contributing to substantial deep-layer shear and thunderstorm organization. At the surface, a 990 mb low over central NE will likewise develop east-northeastward through the day in tandem with the upper wave. A warm front should lift northward across parts of the Midwest, with generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints present across the warm sector as far south as the Ozarks. A composite Pacific cold front/dryline will move quickly eastward from the southern/central Plains into the mid Ms Valley by this evening. This boundary should stall across the southern Plains, and may begin to lift northward late tonight. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley... A large area of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from parts of eastern KS/NE/SD into IA. Much of this activity across the central Plains is being driven by large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting upper trough/low, along with strong warm/moist advection with a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet. As this convection continues to spread eastward this morning in tandem with the migrating low-level jet axis, it will probably become more elevated, especially as it moves into northern MO and IA and a less unstable airmass to the north of the warm front. Still, an isolated severe threat may persist in the short term with these thunderstorms. The effect of this early-day convection on robust destabilization in its wake along/ahead of the cold front remains a concern and potentially limiting factor for additional severe thunderstorm development this afternoon. Even so, most guidance, including multiple recent runs of the RAP, shows a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability developing along/south of the warm front in IA, and ahead of the cold front sweeping eastward across MO/IA. This re-destabilization should be aided by a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough/low. Assuming that low to mid 60s surface dewpoints and modest daytime heating can aid in this instability actually materializing, then a risk for supercells should exist over parts of IA, northern MO, and northwestern IL. Both low-level and deep-layer shear appear strong enough for supercells. Steep lapse rates will aid in hail production, with some chance for 2+ inch diameter stones with the more robust cores. Tornadoes will also be a concern, as the enhanced boundary-layer flow and enlarged/curved hodographs associated with a the low-level jet will aid in updraft rotation. The best tornado potential will probably be focused along/near the warm front in IA, where the greatest low-level shear is forecast. Here, a strong tornado appears possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur. Farther south into the Ozarks and Mid-South, the potential for severe thunderstorms appears more conditional. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings exhibit generally poor lapse rates, with at least weak inhibition through much of the period. Given these regions displacement from the upper trough/low to the north, it remains unclear how robust updrafts will be in a more marginal low/mid-level lapse rate environment. Still, have maintained the Slight Risk into parts of the lower MS Valley, but convection may struggle to intensify this afternoon/evening. ..Gleason/Grams.. 04/16/2024 Read more View the full article

WW 0115 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 115 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW EMP TO 40 SSW FNB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0456. ..GRAMS..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 115 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-003-013-031-045-059-073-085-087-111-139-177-197-207- 161340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON BROWN COFFEY DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GREENWOOD JACKSON JEFFERSON LYON OSAGE SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WOODSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more View the full article

WW 115 TORNADO KS 160930Z - 161400Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 115 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 430 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Kansas * Effective this Tuesday morning from 430 AM until 900 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Supercells capable of producing all severe hazards will move eastward this morning. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northeast of Manhattan KS to 45 miles south of Emporia KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 114... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22035. ...Gleason Read more View the full article

WW 0114 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 114 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW TOP TO 35 W BIE TO 10 SSW OLU. WW 114 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 161300Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0456. ..GRAMS..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...TOP...OAX...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 114 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-085-129-155-161300- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT HARRISON MILLS POTTAWATTAMIE KSC131-161300- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NEMAHA NEC021-023-025-037-039-053-055-067-097-109-127-131-133-147-151- 153-155-159-167-177-161300- NE Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Friday/D4, an upper low is forecast to move across Ontario, with an expansive low-amplitude trough sweeping east across the northern Plains and Great Lakes. This associated trough is expected to broaden and deepen over the next several days, becoming centered over Hudson Bay. The end result will be gradually expanding high pressure over much of the CONUS, with moisture shunted farther south each day. For Friday, a front is expected to stretch from TX across the Southeast and toward the Mid Atlantic, with robust low-level moisture to the south. While this will support destabilization, the boundary will largely be south of the strong winds aloft, with less shear potential. Scattered daytime thunderstorms are likely Friday along the front, with thunderstorm chances increasing over the southern Plains on Saturday/D5. While a minor southern-stream wave may move across the Southwest and northern Mexico on Saturday, shear is forecast to be weak. High pressure is then forecast to shift south across the Plains and into the Southeast as the Hudson Bay and eastern North American trough develops, with little if any severe threat beyond Saturday/D5. Read more View the full article