NorthGeorgiaWX

Another forecast added... I'm liking most of this and the new one is good!

October 29, 1917 The temperature at Denver, CO, dipped to zero, and at Soda Butte, WY, the mercury plunged to 33 degrees below zero, a U.S. record for the month of October. (David Ludlum) October 29, 1942 A tornado struck the town of Berryville in northwest Arkansas killing 20 persons and causing half a million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) October 29, 1956 A violent tornado, or series of tornadoes, moved along a path more than 100 miles in length from south of North Platte NE into Rock County NE. It was an unusually late occurrence so far north and west in the U.S. for such a storm. (The Weather Channel) October 29, 1987 Severe thunderstorms in Arizona produced wind gusts to 86 mph at the Glendale Airport near Phoenix, baseball size hail and 70 mph winds at Wickenburg, and up to an inch of rain in fifteen minutes in Yavapai County and northwest Maricopa County. Arizona Public Service alone reported 2.5 million dollars damage from the storms. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) October 29, 1988 Wintry weather prevailed in the Upper Midwest. South Bend, IN, equalled their record for October with a morning low of 23 degrees. International Falls MN reported a record low of 11 degrees in the morning, then dipped down to 8 degrees above zero late in the evening. (The National Weather Summary) October 29, 1989 Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather in Oklahoma and north central Texas during the late afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms in Oklahoma produced weak tornadoes near Snyder and Davidson, and produced hail two inches in diameter at Altus. Large hail damaged 60 to 80 percent of the cotton crop in Tillman County OK. Nine cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 70's. For Marquette MI it marked their fifth straight day of record warmth. Arctic cold invaded the western U.S. Lows of 7 degrees at Alamosa CO and 9 degrees at Elko NV were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) October 29, 2001 Unseasonably cold weather spread across north and central Georgia. Low temperatures across much of the area dropped into the low to mid 20's, which is about 20 degrees below normal. (NWS Atlanta) October 29, 2011 New York City received one inch of snow, the earliest they had received that much snow since records began. It was also only the fourth times since the Civil War snow had fallen in New York City in October. The storm also left over three million people without power including 62% of the customers of Connecticut Light and Power. Data courtesy of WeatherForYou TODAY'S WEATHER SUMMARY Today's Climate Records and Averages 5:00 AM TEMPS AND DEW POINTS Temperatures 24 Hour Temperature Change Dew Points Wind Chill 5 am Southeast Temperatures TODAY'S FORECAST TEMPERATURES High Temps Low Temps TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES High Temp Anomalies Low Temp Anomalies WIND Max Wind Speed Max Wind Gust PRECIPITATION WPC - 24 Hour Precipitation Forecast WPC - 7 Day Precipitation Forecast View the full article

October 28, 1936 The temperature at Layton, NJ, dipped to 9 above zero to establish a state record for the month of October. (The Weather Channel) October 28, 1971 A severe early season blizzard raged across the Plateau Region and Rocky Mountain Region. Heavy snow blocked railroads and interstate highways, and record cold accompanied the storm. Lander WY received 27 inches of snow, and the temperature at Big Piney WY plunged to 15 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum) October 28, 1987 Thunderstorms over the San Joaquin Valley of California produced three-quarters of an inch of rain in thirty minutes at Placerville, and caused numerous power outages due to lightning. Rain began to diminish in the northeastern U.S., but some flooding continued in Vermont, eastern New York and northern New Jersey. One inch rains in Vermont clogged culverts and sewers with fallen leaves, resulting in erosion of dirt roads. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) October 28, 1988 Arctic cold invaded the north central U.S. Valentine, NE, dipped to 8 degrees, and Cutbank, MT, reported a morning low of one degree above zero. The temperature at Estes Park CO dipped to 15 degrees, but then soared thirty degrees in less than thirty minutes. (The National Weather Summary) October 28, 1989 A storm crossing the western U.S. produced 10 to 20 inches of snow across northern and central Wyoming, with 22 inches reported at Burgess Junction. Seven cities in the Lower Ohio Valley and the Upper Great Lakes Region reported record high temperatures for the date as readings again warmed into the 70's. Alpena MI reported a record high of 75 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) October 28, 2002 The remnants of Pacific Hurricane Kenna spread across north and central Georgia resulting in severe thunderstorms and very heavy rain. In Rome (Floyd County), one apartment building experienced minor flooding. In Duluth (Gwinnett County), around 25 cars were moved around in the parking lot of the Georgia Postal Distribution Center during a thunderstorm downburst. Fourteen of the cars sustained at least moderate body damage. Winds from a thunderstorm also blew down part of a brick wall on one end of the Scotland Yard Antique store. The damaged roof allowed water to come inside the store resulting in damage to some of the irreplaceable antiques. (NWS Atlanta) Data courtesy of WeatherForYou TODAY'S WEATHER SUMMARY Today's Climate Records and Averages Astronomical Information for Today - Accurate for Gwinnett County GA 5:00 AM TEMPS AND DEW POINTS Temperatures 24 Hour Temperature Change Dew Points 5 am Southeast Temperatures TODAY'S FORECAST TEMPERATURES High Temps Low Temps TEMPERATURE AOMALIES High Temp Anomalies Max Wind Gust WIND Max Wind Speed Max Wind Gust PRECIPITATION WPC - 24 Hour Precipitation Forecast WPC - 7 Day Precipitation Forecast View the full article

October 27, 1764 A "very remarkable storm of snow with high winds" produced 22 inches at Rutland in central Massachusetts. (David Ludlum) October 27, 1929 A snowstorm dumped 27 inches upon Ishpeming, MI, in 24 hours to establish a state record. (David Ludlum) October 27, 1962 An early season winter storm over New England blanketed northern Maine with 7 to 16 inches of snow, and southeastern New England with up to 3 inches of snow. Worcester MA received a record 4.7 inches of snow. (The Weather Channel) October 27, 1987 Showers and thunderstorms produced locally heavy rain from Virginia to New York State. Fallen leaves made roads and sidewalks slick, and also clogged sewers. Rainfall totals of 1.55 inches at Newark NJ, 1.54 inches at Harrisburg PA, 1.27 inches at Scranton PA, and 1.22 inches at Atlantic City NJ, were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) October 27, 1988 Low pressure brought snow and gale force winds to the Great Lakes Region, and snow and high winds to the north central U.S. Winds gusted to 47 mph at Lansing MI, and reached 55 mph at Pierre SD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) October 27, 1989 Wintry weather invaded the northwestern U.S. A storm crossing the Central Rockies produced up to 23 inches of snow in the mountains east of Salt Lake City UT. "Indian Summer" continued in the Lower Ohio Valley and the Upper Great Lakes Region. Afternoon highs of 71 degrees at Marquette MI and 72 degrees at Sault Ste Marie MI were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) October 27, 1995 Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail occurred across much of central Georgia. These storms produced two F-0 tornadoes. One F-0 tornado occurred in Crisp County and was on the ground for 10 miles from Warwick to Arabi. Thirty to forty structures sustained damage and two cars were overturned. Six people were injured in Crisp County. The other F-0 tornado occurred in Dodge County in the Rhine area. This tornado was short lived but managed to cause damage to a few structures. No one was injured in Dodge County. (NWS Atlanta) Data courtesy of WeatherForYou TODAY'S WEATHER SUMMARY Today's Weather Map Today's Climate Records and Averages Astronomical Information for Today - Accurate for Gwinnett County GA 5:00 AM TEMPS AND DEW POINTS Temperatures 24 Hour Temperature Change Dew Points Southeast Temperatures TODAY'S FORECAST TEMPERATURES High Temps Low Temps TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES High Temp Anomalies Max Wind Gust WIND Max Wind Speed Max Wind Gust PRECIPITATION WPC - 24 Hour Precipitation Forecast WPC - 7 Day Precipitation Forecast View the full article

Added another forecast or two! They will start coming in quickly now

I think it's going to be a great winter... but I'm always optimistic! ❄️

Here's a blog post that I've shared on the other blog site, http://blog.northgeorgiawx.com/weather-blog/a-look-at-the-effects-of-ninos-on-southeast-winters

There is definitely a warmer signal, but location will be more important. As long as the heat stays centered in the Pacific, we should be fine. I have a post on the other blog site that my friend Larry compiled. He took a look a look at 26 cold winters here and went back and matched the ENSO state up with them. Here's his analysis of the 26 cold winters by ENSO state: Strong Nino: 0 of 26 (0%) Moderate Nino: 1 of 26 (4%) Weak Nino: 9 of 26 (35%) Neutral positive: 4 of 26 (15%) Neutral negative: 5 of 26 (19%) Weak Nina: 6 of 26 (23%) Moderate Nina: 1 of 26 (4%) Strong Nina: 0 of 26 (0%) Here's some additional comments from the blog post: "Notice that out of all the cold years, the majority of them occurred during weak Nino's (35%). Also notice that out of all of those cold winters, none of them occurred with a strong Nino or a strong Nina. The map (see attached image) on the left depicts the temperature anomalies that occurred during a Weak Nino. Due to the data only going back to 1948, all of the years are not depicted, but this will give you a good idea. As you can see, a weak Nino is what we'd like to see come Dec-Feb. If the current one stays too strong, it could severely limit our cold this winter based on past analogs. keep in mind, Larry's study is based on temperatures, not precipitation. " Here's the link to the blog post: http://blog.northgeorgiawx.com/weather-blog/a-look-at-the-effects-of-ninos-on-southeast-winters I think I'll share it here on a blog post.

Another addition made today. Between now and the end of the month, there will be a bunch of forecast getting published.

You absolutely will. The flexibility of what I can do means there is so much more I can do here. I am so looking forward to it. And thanks for commenting, I think you are the first one! ?

The upcoming 5 days are going to really make you feel like it's fall! Today, sunny and warm! Awesome day to get outside, and probably the best day to do so through Monday. I'll share several images here, temps and temp anomalies for Thu/Fri, and precip through Sunday night. Max Temp Thursday Thursday Max Temp Anomalies Max Temps Friday Friday Max Temp Anomalies - Notice that some of those temps are close to 20 degrees below normal. Looks like a wedge. A wedge is also called Cold Air Damming or CAD. Precip through Sunday - For most, close to an inch of rain will fall

One of the winters that is an analog for the Weatherbell forecast is the winter of 2009-2010. Since you probably don't remember many of the details, I've brought many of them together here for you to read. My next post will be another analog, 2002-2003. The average temperatures for the December 2009 - February 2010 period were among some of the coldest ever across north and central Georgia. Each of the four climate sites - Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport, Athens Ben Epps Airport, Columbus Metropolitan Airport, and Macon/Middle Georgia Regional Airport - saw average temperatures among the ten coldest ever recorded. The average temperatures for Columbus had the 4th coldest average temperature for the winter season, while Macon tied for the 5th coldest, Atlanta was the eighth coldest and Athens tied for the ninth coldest winter season. Dec - Feb 2009-2010 Dec 2009 Temp Anomalies Jan 2010 Temp Anomalies Feb 2010 Temp Anomalies DJF 500 mb Anomalies Winter 2009-2010 The total snowfall this season at Atlanta breaks top 5 for total snowfall recorded December through March for the period of record. As of midnight Wednesday March 3, the total snowfall for the winter season was 5.3 inches which is now the fifth highest since accurate snow records began in 1929. Additionally... the snow on March 2nd marks the third time measurable snow and the tenth time at least a trace of snow or sleet fell at Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport this season. In an average winter season Atlanta typically experiences 4 days of measurable snow and 6 days with a trace or more of snow or sleet. A few of my own pictures... January 7th, 2010 - Snow On Thursday, January 7th, a cold front pushed across north and central Georgia, with the combination and timing of cold air and moisture bringing wintry precipitation across the area. Light snow began during the late morning hours. Snow fell across the area through the day and into the early hours of Friday January 8th. The reinforcing cold air behind the front remained across much of the area through the weekend. North and much of central Georgia's temperatures stayed at or below freezing through Sunday. The map to the left shows the snowfall amounts across north and central Georgia. March 2, 2010 Snow An upper level disturbance traversing the western portion of the United States February 28 and March 1, 2010 helped to develop a surface low along the Texas coast on March 1. This surface low pressure system tracked along the Gulf coast and advected moisture ahead of the system into Georgia from both the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean. By Tuesday, March 2, the surface low moved across southern Georgia and the Florida panhandle and by that afternoon, had moved into the Atlantic Ocean along the Carolina coast. This system brought both rain and snow to the state. Precipitation started as rain and began moving into western Georgia just before midnight on March 2. During the morning hours on March 2 the precipitation continued moving across the state and changed to snow across north Georgia. The snow proceeded to change back to rain during the afternoon and ended across eastern Georgia late in the evening. Snowfall amounts averaged from 2 to 4 inches across north Georgia. However, higher values were reported across northeast Georgia with reports of 9.0 inches in Union county. February 12th, 2010 Snow On Friday, February 12th, precipitation associated with a surface low tracking across the Gulf of Mexico and an upper level short wave tracked across much of north and central Georgia. Light snow began over portions of west Georgia around noontime, then spread eastward through the afternoon before tapering off to flurries by mid evening and dissipating by early Saturday morning. Snow and slush on the roadways froze overnight leading to hazardous driving conditions late Friday night into Saturday morning. The map to the left shows the snowfall amounts across north and central Georgia. National Climatic Data Center - Click here for full review of the Winter of 2009-2010 The purpose of this special report is to provide documentation, data analysis, and a preliminary understanding of large-scale climate patterns and their effects on regional weather events. In climatological terms, the Cold Season lasts from October through March. The 2009/2010 Cold Season for North America was historically active and powerful. Extreme fluctuations in temperature and precipitation in the mid-latitudes during this period can be attributed to a wide variety of rapidly progressing weather systems. The persistent systems were influenced by larger scale patterns. The strong warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) helped to alleviate moderate to exceptional drought across the contiguous United States. Meanwhile, the record-setting negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation produced record cold temperatures in the Deep South. During the October–March period, the contiguous U.S. experienced its eighth wettest such period, while the average temperature was below average (36th coolest). The anomalously cold air, coupled with copious amounts of moisture produced historical snowfall amounts that bested monthly and seasonal records across the country. While the overall drought footprint was at its lowest in the last decade, the moisture surplus caused flooding in the Upper Midwest and New England. High amplitude flow patterns helped the cold arctic air remain entrenched for days and weeks, devastating mild climate crops. The extreme winter of 1977/1978 was similar, as a moderate warm phase of ENSO coincided with a strong negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation. The effects of large-scale climate patterns are often influential on regional weather events and when they are extreme and historic in nature, their local effects are profound and far reaching. The snow cover extent for the contiguous U.S. during the 2009/2010 Cold Season was above average for the season as a whole, but there was significant variation from month to month. The snowy season got off to an early start with several storms impacting the U.S. during October. These storms helped produce the largest average snow extent during any October for the contiguous U.S. in the 42 year satellite record, according to Rutger's University Global Snow Lab. Conversely, November was very quiet with much below average snow cover. The following three months were cold and snowy with the extent being much above average for December (all time snowiest), January (6th snowiest), and February (3rd snowiest). During January, snow and freezing temperatures were reported as far south as central Florida.

http://blog.northgeorgiawx.com/weather-blog/2018-2019-winter-forecasts