I have been wondering about something. I'm not sure I can articulate it the way it is in my brain, but I'll try to make a sensible question out of it. The past several years, it seems like we would get these long rang forecasts with "all the signals" pointing towards wintery weather. It seemed like many weather people were willing to go out on a limb and feel very confident that we would have exciting winters because of X, Y, and Z - with computer maps and heat blobs in the ocean and displaced blobs in Alaska, etc. etc.
My question is -- are those signs and signals no longer reliable? Has something changed about weather/climate/the planet in this 21st century? Weather-wise, does 2 + 2 not equal 4 anymore? If so, I think this would be fascinating to meteorologists everywhere. Big shifts in how weather plays out across the globe.
OR -- is it a matter of us having too much technology available for information? Along the same lines as an article I read the other day, about cancers being "over diagnosed" because the machines/scans/tests etc. are so very sensitive that they can detect things that really should not go into making a diagnosis. Could this be happening with weather forecasting also? Are the computer programs so smart that they are TOO smart? Seeing things that they would not have seen 20 years ago?
I think it is all really interesting!