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Everything posted by KingOfTheMountains

  1. After the disaster that was last winter, just one area wide snow sure would do us a lot of good. So tweets like this one, from experts in the field, definitely make me look forward to the winter. Even Glen Burns, whose normally a bit of a sour pus when it comes to winter weather, has said he expects this to be a very snowy winter. After getting burned by big predictions last year I'm scared to go all in, but man the consensus among the experts seems to be set.
  2. The smokies are a real buzz kill when it comes to cold fronts up here. It takes so long for that cold to get past them from the NW. It's 32 in Blairsville and 45 here lol
  3. Pretty much. Looks dry, maybe light rain at best.
  4. And since I'm up, this front is incredibly sharp. East of Chattanooga its in the 50s. Just west and its in the 30s. That's some strong advection.
  5. This is the point I was attempting to make last week. That I already like where we're at this year compared to last year regardless of whether we end up with a super cold winter. For now, the storm track is loving the gulf and I like our chances of making one work out if that trend were to continue.
  6. Tomorrow looks downright awful... Not exactly ideal outdoor working conditions.
  7. Being honest I haven't looked at a whole lot today but the Euro looks nice for NW GA on the backside of the first system. But it is cold chasing moisture so the models aren't always to be believed in that scenario, but that is the favored area for the cold to actually get there in time. 2nd late week system looks like a complete non-event now on both models. But I've only glanced at the operationals and haven't looked at any ensembles.
  8. Just a bit colder than forecast this morning at 23 degrees 🥶
  9. This is the system I've really been interested in the last few days. All it takes is that HP locking in just a little better and stronger and boom, you've got a classic wedge overrunning event.
  10. Lol, that Canadian is something else 🤣 Surprised we haven't seen something ridiculous from its main run yet given the state of its ensembles.
  11. This early in the season if I can just see some flakes falling I'll be happy.
  12. Well initially the models had been phasing the cutoff low over the SW US into the frontal passage making it all one system on Tuesday, and yes the cold chasing moisture variety. However the last 2 runs of the GFS have left that cutoff low behind in the gulf, creating a potential 2nd system. First things first we'll have to see if the GFS gets any support in this scenario.
  13. 6z GFS is really interesting. It's much slower and stronger with the southern piece of energy. Ideally this is what we'd need as it would allow more time for the high pressure/cold to build in out front. However on that run the high moves out just too fast leading to rain. As I've been saying, that is just an absolute classic low track for a southeast winter storm, timing out the cold is always the hard part. The odds of this working out are pretty slim, but the fact that all the necessary players are on the field this early in November is encouraging.
  14. From what I've seen people saying December is almost certainly going to be warm again but I hope it'll come back around afterwards. Frankly, at least here in the mountains, I'm only concerned with seeing how the storm track sets up this winter. It doesn't take super anomalous cold to get snow, in fact I'd rather not have it because then suppresion usually wins. I just hope to see a storm track that doesn't cut so far west this year and track some surface lows down along the gulf. If we can get that then we're bound to time one out with some nice bridging highs regardless of consistent below normal temps or not.
  15. All I can say is I hope we keep getting delivered looks like this come January and February, cause this is a lot closer to being something than some of the "threats" that disappeared on us all the time last year. The trough is sharpening up too late to be anything other than backside flurries this time but we would have killed for a low track like this last year when everything cut west of the Apps.
  16. Man what I wouldn't give for a nice strong CAD high in front of that system on the GFS. The low track is pretty dang perfect for the mountains, but it's all too positive tilt and no CAD to work with.
  17. Just crazy to see the consistency with which the waves of heavy rain moved through all day today. I do believe the models might have underestimated the upslope enhancement in the final rain totals.
  18. Just went over an inch already, definitely expect some minor flash flooding concerns if the storms in frontal passage are as heavy as being advertised. Also with a cold front this strong I wonder if places like Brasstown may have a shot at some back side flurries.
  19. 1.90 inches was the final total here in Tiger. Much needed slow soaking rain.
  20. Not that the EPS is the end all be all of modeling, but this flip certainly can't be ignored. We'll see if the GFS suite sticks to its guns over the coming days.
  21. Hopefully this flips back but man if this isn't just a terrible reminder of basically all of last winter. Modeling looks great for us in the long range and then the trough turns into a ridge as we get closer.
  22. Got to 35 last night. Might have a shot at a frost if it stays calm and clear tonight.
  23. Late October/early November seems about right for the first NW flow flakes. Need those big powerful cold fronts to produce them and that's about when we first start seeing them.
  24. . 84 inches here this morning! More rain than we've had in the last 30 days. Looking forward to more this week.
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