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Posts posted by KingOfTheMountains

  1. 22 minutes ago, GaDawg said:

    We all know that the models and trends lose storms only to come in better.  With as messed up as the weather seems right now on any given day we just have to hold tight.  There is one set of model runs that normally do not show great things.  I do not know which one but it has something to do with the various information it looks at or does not look at.  I am just going to keep hoping as it all we can do.

    Agreed, but I tend to lean on the ensembles to get through the flip flopping of the operationals, but they're doing the flip flopping too. Just shows how chaotic things are. Even if we miss this weekend, plenty of chances still await.

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  2. 9 minutes ago, SlicNic13 said:

    We still have time to re-trend the right way lol I'm just trying to stay optimistic :classic_cool: I assume the ensembles are also back peddling? 

    Yes GEFS has dropped 3 out of the last 4 runs. EPS just dropped also. There is definitely still time for good trends, just saying from where we are now, the weekend is looking less and less. 

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  3. Crazy how we’ve gained a bit of support over last several runs from the EPS and lost some in the GEFS. Have to wonder if the American models northern stream bias is coming in to play at this range. Because 5-7 days out is a typical range in which model biases start to play games with a system. 

    In a lot of ways the GFS actually is improving in how the wave is being handled early on. Yesterday it was trying to dive from the Dakotas to the gulf, which is just too steep of an angle for it to make the turn and develop in time. Now it’s showing the wave dive down from WA/Montana border into the 4 corners region and then on to the Texas coast. I tend to use the 4 corners as a benchmark on whether a storm is digging enough to get us a gulf low, so that’s a great track for us. However at this point the Northern stream just overpowers the system and beats it down. And the ridges aren’t quite as tall as we’d like to get the wave to go neutral and spark development quickly. Long ways to go and very small changes could make this into a very memorable storm. This is going to be an ultimate case of trying to thread the needle. 

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  4. Well I just got back in, I’d had enough of the cold and wind lol. Anyway GEFS got over it’s hiccup for the most part. Not quite back to what it was at 12z but, much improved over the dismal 18z run. Most of the OPs were really close to being good, but we’re just late bloomers again. Massive hit on the FV3 from Augusta area up through the Carolinas. However the GEFS favors N GA over the Carolinas still, so at this range I will lean on them.

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  5. 7 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

    Yeah... I noticed it this morning. Didn't even want to talk about it lol. Pattern breaking down fast on the ensembles now after start of Feb. This still doesn't change the fact that we're going to see 2-3 chances of snow though, just need to cash in.

    And this could just be noise at longer ranges. I’m not saying I believe it will breakdown, just trying to make sense of what the models may be seeing. The MJO signal climbing into phase 5 is my guess, getting the pacific jet raging again. But it may also not be picking up on the fact that it should move through the bad phases rather quickly. 

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  6. 1 minute ago, Shannon said:

    In  addition, the models are not depicting as nice of a pattern either down the road. 

    Yeah... I noticed it this morning. Didn't even want to talk about it lol. Pattern breaking down fast on the ensembles now after start of Feb. This still doesn't change the fact that we're going to see 2-3 chances of snow though, just need to cash in.

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  7. Just now, Shannon said:

    Yeah that’s the fear. It’s gonna really suck if we can’t get anything the next week or two. 

    It'm only looking out to next weekends threat, but means definitely dropped. This is just part of model watching though, positive trends will not last for 7 straight days. Although I had hoped to at least see more consistency from the ensembles. That being said the EPS hasn't been as bullish as the GEFS yet and maybe there is a reason for that.

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  8. 14 minutes ago, Shannon said:

    18z doesn’t allow for any phasing as well. I’m sure the ensembles will tell a different story. 

    It's all going to be really close. That's a steep angle for our wave to try and dive from Montana/Dakotas all the way down to the gulf and try and round the bend and get neutral all before it gets past us. First frame is 0z last night which showed widespread snow, notice our energy is nice and consolidated and has achieved a neutral tilt. Last frame is the new run and is much closer than 6z and 12 z but still didn't round the bend in time in order to pop the low.  Height of the western ridge will be key on how quickly it can dig.2084082697_gfs_z500_vort_us_fh162_trend(1).thumb.gif.48351fc3d83c9e78f21c305988bce3ab.gif


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  9. 12 minutes ago, Doyouwannabuildasnowman said:

    That statement nulled itself -- didn't it?  

    Not really. Them even mentioning area wide wintry weather this far out isn't a normal occurrence. Limited confidence is because the devil is in the details and there is little confidence in being able to say how those details will play out. 

  10. Just now, Shannon said:

    That’s rough. It’s great if a big one happens but you hate to be very close and nothing happen. However, we do live in the south haha 

    Timing of small details will be key. I think the chances of getting literally nothing is disappearing fairly quickly though. Kind of looking like small event vs. big event with a very very small chance of nothing. Although I will say, at this lead time, even allowing myself to have that type of confidence scares the heck out of me lol. 

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  11. Seeing language like this from the NWS in Atlanta already is definitely a positive sign.

    Still looks like we will be watching for the potential for much of
    the forecast area to see a chance of wintry precipitation next
    weekend, however, due to the uncertainty in the smaller scale
    details, that portion of the forecast period continues to see
    limited confidence at this time.


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  12. 29 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

    Some of these ensemble members have large totals. It won't take much to get one of these members 

    Yep. Looks like all or nothing type event. If the phase happens quick enough it’ll be a big one. If it’s late, it’ll be mostly light to nothing. No real scenarios for in between that.

  13. EPS ever so slightly increased snowfall mean for the 27th-29th time period. Not as impress as the GEFS yet, but a 51 member suite is going to be slower to move. Overall trends still positive. This is going to be a thread the needle type storm, but we’ve done it plenty of times before. Just keep cheering on that western ridge because the higher it pops the better our wave will dig and the quicker it can go neutral.

  14. 2 minutes ago, firefighter556 said:

    So if it isnt showing much for N.ga. where is it showing the precip?

    Well it snows in TN and AL. Then S GA, parts of SC, and big time in central NC. Basically everywhere but all of N GA and the WNC mountains. Bone dry here. But not because of suppression. Just has the low bombing out a hair too late. So the best moisture transport sort of misses us to the east. I think as dry as it’s showing is a bit ridiculous but it would be light snow at best. Very close to a big one though. Get that phase and bomb a little further west and we get buried. Just one run of an OP though, no reason to worry. In fact I like the trend.

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  15. 2 minutes ago, Justcallmeloops said:

    Being were 8 days out or so I hope this verifies ❄☃️😍

    Just gotta keep riding the trends. And they probably won’t always be good ones like we’re seeing now. Typically there’s a point around 5 days out that models can lose the storm only to find it again, so everyone be prepared for that. 

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