Jump to content

KingOfTheMountains

Moderator
  • Content Count

    945
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    15

Posts posted by KingOfTheMountains


  1. 1 minute ago, Mountainbuck said:

    what About west of the mountains 😢

    Looks better across the board for all of us. It's just that the biggest changes from last run to this one came for those to the south. The far northern tier of the state already looked pretty good.

    6z vs 12z just out to next Monday. Remember, these are averages not a forecast. Key takeaway support continues to grow.

     image.thumb.png.765a276b05763b29e863f656c1a9ef80.png

    image.thumb.png.b13e5d6c2f3ca85695b781b0909131bd.png

    • Like 3

  2. Tonights GEFS.  I'll continue to use Blairsville as an example. (Excuse me trying to draw with a laptop touchpad lol)

    1861792739_download(4)_LI.thumb.jpg.8bd93c9f44e6b2a86b4db8663d82a68a.jpg

    Now try to ignore everything happening in the red circle, not all members are giving up on the midweek system but for now that's nothing more than noise. Now the thing to notice is just how many members are showing new snow around the 27th/28th. Some light, some heavy. But the key take away is that the majority of members, 15 by my count, are supporting snow on those dates, big or small. At 18z there were only around 10 members showing this, and only 6-7 at 12z. So for now support is growing. Oh and the Euro just came out and is also on board, so buckle up everyone.

    • Like 3

  3. Well it is starting to look like we may have our first system to at least track for around the 27th/28th. I can't stress enough that at this range the letdown potential is high. So try as hard as you can to temper expectations, and try to just enjoy the process of trying to reel a storm in from a week out lol. 

    Anyway, I do think this is the first real threat we've seen out of the pattern flip. The OP's are showing something at least fairly regularly, and more importantly ensemble support has went up significantly this afternoon and tonight in at least supporting a system on these dates. Ensemble support is key at this range and seeing how it grows or weakens over the coming days will really tell us everything we need to know for now. 

    • Like 1

  4. 26 minutes ago, Bagsmom said:

    So Steve -- just as a recap - to be sure I'm getting everything:

    The computer models/weather apps/etc. are all wonky right now, which means two things -- we can't trust them and it could indicate that there is some major action ahead (but we aren't sure what.). Is that correct?

    Also, when discussing the big concern in the 10 to 14 days out, the worry is over dangerous (possibly historic) cold.  Yes?

     

     

     

    The models are absolutely all over the place right now, especially past just a few days. It just means the operationals can’t be trusted for the location of any given piece of energy. And the locations of these pieces of energy will determine whether we get snow or not. One thing is for certain we are heading into a pattern that will be below average in temperature for a couple weeks or so at minimum. For that reason alone there is a greater chance than normal at wintry weather, but for now nothing jumps out as a legitimate threat. The ensembles suggest next weekend is a good window for us, but we have to get closer to that time to really know. Snow is never a guarantee in the south, even if the pattern is good. We’re simply gonna have to wait it out and hope we can time something up. 

     

    As as far as dangerous historic cold goes, there’s not really a lot of support for cold like we saw on the afternoon runs yesterday. Things will likely trend colder as we get closer but that was an extreme outlier from all the data we have right now. Still a long lasting period of night time temperatures getting possibly into the teens is no small matter in the southeast, even if not as noteworthy as what those models were showing.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 3

  5. 1 minute ago, Shannon said:

    Absolutely insane. That would be incredibly dangerous for North Georgia. 

    No doubt. Lots of pipes would need replacing if that were to come to pass. I remember a piece that Rabun Counties historical society put in our local newspaper a few years back that I wish I could find. But it was pictures from a historic arctic outbreak maybe in the 60's or earlier, and some of the pictures were of people riding their motorcycles across a frozen Lake Burton. I'd imagine if the models are right we could see similar conditions.

    • Like 1

  6.  

    1 minute ago, Shannon said:

    Oh my 18z GFS dropping the hammer a day later than the 12z EURO 😳😩

    Yep, both models now showing surface temps below -10 in the mountains. Incredible.... I'm absolutely pulling for a big snow before or after that, but the weather geek in me would be nearly as happy seeing just this arctic outbreak. This is truly a historic cold outbreak if the models are anywhere close to being right.

    • Like 5

  7. 43 minutes ago, Shannon said:

    If the EURO were to verify, highly doubt it will be that extreme, then we would not get snow. That is extremely cold, dry air coming from some seriously cold origins. Also, if taken seriously, the EURO says all of North Georgia 10 days from now will experience temperatures at 0 degrees or colder. The mountains well below zero. Insane stuff!

    Agreed, but that’s only at the heart of the cold. But you can catch a wave on its way in and again as it relaxes. But in the middle of cold like that and the STJ is going to be extremely suppressed. But like Steve said, I’ll take whatever cold I can get because it’ll still give us chances at frozen precip. And at temps like that it wouldn’t take much moisture at all to get a decent snow, so we could score better than usual on say a clipper rounding the base of the Apps. Honestly I’d be amazed just to see temps like that. I’ve heard stories from my grandpa about some of the legendary cold we had long ago in the mountains and that would surely be memorable. Might freeze our lakes lol

    • Like 5

  8. 5 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

    It's hard to believe the tremendous changes from run to run in the models. To me, that's always exciting. It's relatively easy for a model to be fairly accurate even up to 10 days. But when you see lows change positions by a thousand miles.... that is really something, especially from the models that are normally very reliable and stable. 

    And I like this. IT tells me the models can't handle what's coming up. Big changes disrupt the models ability to narrow down a solution. As we get closer, those big changes will start to narrow down, the flipping around won't be as amped up, the solutions become more consistent. We need to get past this first system, as it impacts to some extent what happens with the systems coming after it. By the time we get to the 26th, we are locked in with blocking. Storms will be forced south.

    It's real. It's gonna happen. And it's gonna happen in a BIG way.

     

    With a look like that, even Florida should be feeling pretty good about snow lol

    • Like 4
    • Haha 1

  9. 1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

    Ok folks... I'm thinking the Euro is on to something between the 26th-29th.  There is support from the ensemble mean and the control run, and we are fully in the blocking at that point. It's a long way off but I think we may be on to something. Expect the operational to keep moving around, so don't put a lot of faith in that just yet, but we'll keep watching. 

    🙂 Here we go!

    Yep both ensembles have really started to send some signals. Means haven't really jumped yet, but the number of members showing snow is going up. The 6z GEFS for Blairsville looked really nice in that regard.

    • Like 4

  10. Nice trends on both the GFS and Euro for around the 24th. Secondary wave developing at the base of the trough is showing up that hadn't been there on runs from a few days ago. Totally track dependent, if it's far enough east some of us could see snow from it. It's a long shot probably, but could get interesting if the trends keep heading that direction.

    Edit: And a nice snow event at the end of the run as well that I hadn't got to yet.

    • Like 1

  11. 4 minutes ago, GroceryStoreMan said:

    So 100 hours out is about 4 days right? I assume also that's when the shorter and more accurate models come into play

    First Hi-Res. models come into play at 84 hours, but their skill is much higher inside 48. 100-120 hours right now is just about as far as I would trust a model like GFS or Euro for small details like a storm. Beyond that the run to run variability is too high due to the complex nature of the pattern flip.

    • Like 1

  12. 5 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

    I like what I see on the Euro for the 27th. All the upper air features are good and the upper level low is making it's own cold air to boot. 

    Of course that doesn't mean it will be there tomorrow. :classic_dry:

    Can’t even imagine how exited it’d be on here if we ever get a look like that inside 100 hours....

    • Like 1
    • Haha 2

  13. 27 minutes ago, Athens said:

    If anyone is interested in NWS forecasts available on your mobile, I use an app that uses data directly from their servers. Although I believe it's only available on Android at the moment. If you do have an Android you can check it out, overall it's pretty great! It's called NWS NOW

    Screenshot_20190117-192825.jpg

    That’s really cool. I know android is a lot more accepting of 3rd party app developers so that makes sense. For now I’m stuck in Apples world but looking to maybe upgrade to Pixel soon so I’ll have to remember that.


  14. 26 minutes ago, Shannon said:

    I spy a low at the end of the  12z EURO run south of us 🧐

    May have been the best look yet. Big bowling ball of a low diving for the Louisiana coast with high pressure bridged over the top. Shame its ten days out and will be completely different on the next run. Again, at least we have signs of the potential showing up though!

    • Like 6
×
×
  • Create New...