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Posts posted by KingOfTheMountains

  1. 9 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

    So the chance of severe weather/tornadoes for us here in North Georgia is still very very low?

    Yes very low. Can't rule out a thunderstorm or two, and can't say that that storm won't be strong simply because of the amount of wind energy in the cold front. But the likelihood of any given location seeing severe weather is very very low. Bigger story is likely to be the strong gusty winds and temp crash with frontal passage.

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  2. 3 minutes ago, rwarren5 said:

    NWS is predicting snow showers for us on Sunday. No accumulation but it would be nice to see some flakes. I assume this would come leftover moisture after the cold front moves through Saturday night?  


    Yes definitely would be post frontal moisture. Flurries to maybe brief light showers possible.

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  3. Just now, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

    Of course! That area is a great place for snow. 

    Lot's of areas east of the mountains up there are getting snow that wasn't in the forecast. We've had a few of those surprise snowstorms up here over the years and I remember them almost as fondly as the big ones. Just something about getting it when you don't expect it.

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  4. 6 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

    And knowing ALL of this will amplify at some point, makes that much more interesting. We NEED to see Gulf coast storm tracks, otherwise you are always borderline rain/snow. So seeing development in the Gulf is the first step in seeing the correct setup. We're going to see a LOT of this over the next 45 days. 

    Can’t agree more with this! At this range I’ll gladly take suppression knowing we tend to get some NW trend and all it would take is some well placed northern stream energy to get a phase, and bomb out what would otherwise be a weak suppressed low. 

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  5. Yeah that area of Athens eastward towards Hartwell, Elberton, etc. is an area that has really gotten the shaft lately. December 2017 was especially heartbreaking in that region. I was there visiting some friends during last years just over 1 inch and it felt like a miracle. Just off the top of my head I'd say its probably been since 2011 since Athens has seen more than 4 inches?

  6. 9 minutes ago, LoveSnow said:

    Question- here in Georgia are we due for a big snow or overdue for an ice storm?

    Well that is a harder question than it seems. Georgia is a very diverse state in terms of weather thanks to our wide range of topography and other factors. So there are some areas that aren't necessarily over due for either. While others are over due for both. Generally I'd say as a whole we are all well over due of a nice gulf low snow storm that gives all of N GA snow. I know here in the mountains we get our fair share of snow every year, but it's been a long while since we've had a storm actually stay snow the entire time. And typically when we get that, is when those south of us tend to also have nice snows. If we are struggling with mixing, then things are really not good for you guys. 

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  7. 6 minutes ago, LoveSnow said:

    Is it bad that I’m starting to get a little more excited?

    Absolutely not. If it's bad then every single one of us on here are bad too. No reason not to be excited. Best pattern we'v had in years. There's always the chance that it doesn't pay off in terms of snow, just because that's the way things go down here. But the conditions are ripe and that's all we can ask for.

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  8. 3 minutes ago, LoveSnow said:

    That is some crazy cold air on the 29th......... can’t believe I’m saying this but I have a feeling we might have a big GFS run like the one the other day coming soon. #FINGERSCROSSED

    Yes the OP GFS is starting to look better and better with each run for that time period between the 26th and the end of the month. Numerous small events that were near misses on being big ones on consecutive runs. Just subtle differences make all the difference in the world at the surface. 

    But for the time being, it is best too ignore the OP runs as much as possible. Look at them for the potential, but ignore the details as their handling of individual pieces of energy is very poor right now beyond 4-5 days. Lean on the ensembles for watching how the pattern evolves and for any storm signals that may start to show up better. But I suspect by this time next week our ensemble snowfall means are going to look a lot better.

  9. 21 minutes ago, Chase said:

    How are the latest ensembles looking for Blairsville? 

    No real changes. No meaningful snowfall signals inside of 7 days, a little better beyond that but still nothing significant yet. We are in a bit of a wait and see pattern with the models. We have a good feel now for when our prolonged cold period will begin, around the 24th and 25th and beyond. Our best chances of winter weather will come during that period but we're too far out right now to identify much in the way of individual storms for that period yet, at least with any real confidence. 

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  10. 9 minutes ago, Shannon said:

    True. I think it sucks more to know that we have a solid pattern and the anticipation gets the best of us.

    Yep, and for all intensive purposes for us the pattern flip doesn’t happen until after the 23rd-25th. We need to look at the first cold spell as a warning shot of sorts. If you look at it that way and chances of snow are already showing up around the 27th then things look great. We’ve seen this coming from so far out, it’s made the wait punishingly long.

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  11. Latest GFS run was very close to being a big snow storm around the 26th-27th. Trough was just a tiny bit late turning neutral so precip didn’t really blossom until it was just past us. Wouldn’t take much at all to change that. Also, in the image, around that same time it leaves a nice bowling ball Baja low pressure behind in the SW and just leaves it there spinning for days. If we can trend towards getting that to slide across towards the gulf underneath that trough, those are usually our best snow makers. Plenty of chances still remain on the long range, and I suspect plenty of more to come. We’re just going to have to practice a lot of patience on letting the pattern unfold first.


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  12. 9 minutes ago, JenRay said:

    Hope is awesome (especially after seeing Glenn Burns post on fb shutting down snow chances the next ten days) but I still feel it's coming!!

    As much as I'd love to disagree with Glenn, I have to say that I don't. There just isn't a lot in the cards for the next 10 days, without big changes in the modeling, which can still happen for storm number 2 as its still over a week away. But keep in mind that only takes us through the first 2 storm waves. I do think our chances improve beyond that, at least for a little while (last week of Jan. to first week of Feb.) There are indications, that our chances could be improved for a very extended period of time beyond that (all the way through Feb.) But it is just too far out in time for me to be willing to go out on that limb just yet.

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  13. 30 minutes ago, LoveSnow said:

    Guys and girls on this site I just wanna take this moment and apologize for all the negative things I’ve said recently. I know it might seem like an attack on people that know more than me but it’s really not. I want snow just as much as I know Steve does. Please accept this apology.

    We all let our emotions get the better of us sometimes, all we can do is apologize and move on. Model watching is a tough thing when you're really hoping for one specific outcome. I'll be pulling for a south of Atlanta snow for you!

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  14. 2 minutes ago, RickyD said:

    Especially when it isn't acting like i want it too...  🙂 

    Exactly, that’s how this whole model thing works right? 

    In all seriousness though I refuse to be concerned with that until it shows up somewhere in the EPS suite or even in its own ensembles. Who knows, maybe it’s trying to pick up on a slight moderation and reload of the pattern and because it’s 384 GFS it just fell off the rails.

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  15. 18 minutes ago, SouthSideDahlonega said:

    does anyone ever study the different (lets just say GFS) ensembles to see if one usually scores better than the rest for our area.  I would assume each member has its own version of the programming and parameters and is discreet, but I don't know. i wonder if they give each the same weight when they are put together.  Some other terms floating around about this i'm unsure of are "control run / operational run", and then "weeklies".  I see people saying, the Euro / GFS etc nailed that storm from a week out, but I never hear anyone say, ensemble x seemed to be the closest to what we got the whole way through. 

    The ensembles aren’t really a forecasting tool for “nailing a storm”. The details are smoothed out by the product of averaging all those runs. They are great for telling you whether or not what you are seeing on the operational, or main runs of the GFS/Euro/etc., has support or if it is just an anomaly on one run. Basically they are useful for setting forecast confidence. If the ensembles of both models are saying the same thing and they’re operationals are also on board, then you can have very good confidence in what you’re seeing, just knowing that as you go farther out in time that diminishes.


    edit: oh and the weeklies are a product of the Euro ensembles that runs twice a week and extends them well beyond the range of our normal models. Generally products are given in 7 day averages hence the weeklies name. They don’t have a ton of skill at their longest ranges but they are sometimes good for hinting at whether big changes are on the horizon or not.

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  16. Look I know we all tend to look a lot closer to home when it comes to looking at the models and wonder why it cant get that right more often. But in reality that's not what it's predicting. It is trying to predict the entire northern hemisphere. And every single thing is connected. One small change on the other side of the globe can lead to big changes in what we perceive for our own back yards. That's why when things are this hectic, its useless to get worked up over what a single model run shows past just a few days. 

    This is yesterdays big snow run. And if I showed you the same image today, unless you knew exactly what to look for, you wouldn't see why they're different. Just the subtlest of changes can make or break what we actually see, and in the long range the models change wildly with each run so there's still a long way to go just for next weeks storm which is still a legitimate threat at this range.gfs_z500a_nhem_fh138-240.thumb.gif.5287f43c912dbba6e23ad465a7ef96c3.gif 

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